Mobile Area Weather

Thursday Evening Forecast

2006-11-30T15:19:00.000-06:00

Forecast issued by Michael Leach on 11/30/06 at 3:18:47 pm CST

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Tonight	Tomorrow	Saturday	Sunday	Monday

	54°F	58°F	59°F	54°F
43°F		32°F	35°F	32°F
S 10-20 mph G 15-30 mph	NW 10-20 mph	N 4-8 mph	N 5-10 mph	N 4-8 mph
70%	20%	0%	0%	0%

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Detailed Forecast

Tonight… Mostly cloudy with rain and thunderstorms. Low 43. Winds south 10-20 mph with gusts 15-30 mph, shifting to the northwest toward morning. Chance of rain is 70 percent.
Tomorrow... Partly cloudy with isolated showers in the morning. High 54. Winds northwest 10-20 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent.
Friday Night... Mostly clear. Low 32. Wind chill values as low as 24 degrees are possible. Winds north 5-10 mph.
Saturday... Partly cloudy. High 58. Winds north 4-8 mph.
Saturday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 35. Wind chill values as low as 28 degrees are possible. Winds north 4-8 mph.
Sunday... Partly cloudy. High 59. Winds north 5-10 mph.
Sunday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 32. Wind chill values as low as 22 degrees are possible. Winds north 7-14 mph.
Monday... Partly cloudy. High 54. Winds north 4-8 mph.
Monday Night... Mostly clear. Low 30. Winds northeast light.

Technical Discussion

Forecast Discussion (Thursday through Monday):
The main concern for this forecast period is the potential of strong to severe storms tonight. A negatively-tilted shortwave trough will move from the Mid-South to the Ohio Valley tonight through Friday morning. At the surface, an area of low pressure is expected to move from near Memphis, TN, northeastward into the Ohio Valley. A cold front trailing from this low is expected to move across the region late tonight and early Friday morning.

A line of showers and thunderstorms is expected to move across the region in advance of the front. The better dynamics with this system should stay to our north and west, closer to the shortwave trough moving across the Mid-South. However, models do indicate a rather strong LLJ moving across the region late tonight. The 12z GFS indicates a LLJ around 40 kts., while the NAM indicates a LLJ around 50-55 kts. With strong wind fields in place in the upper levels of the atmosphere, some storms that form may be able to mix some of the high winds down to the surface. Therefore, the main severe weather risk will be damaging winds. Models soundings indicate some speed shear, and perhaps a little directional shear across the region late tonight. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out as any showers or storms ahead of the line or embedded in the line may be able to rotate. The dynamics will be tempered by a lack of instability across the area. Model soundings indicate little CAPE across the region. Therefore, the severe threat should remain rather isolated.

Will hold on to a 20% PoP for Friday morning to account for any lingering showers. Temperatures will cool off sharply behind the front. Friday will be a chilly and raw day, with temperatures holding in the 50's, and a strong northwest wind making it feel ever colder. With skies clearing, lows Friday night will be near freezing. The weekend ahead looks to be nice. High pressure will remain across the region during the weekend, and CAA will continue. Cool temperatures can be expected throughout the weekend, with highs in the upper 50's to near 60, and lows in the 30's. A reinforcing shot of cold air will move into the area Sunday night and Monday. The coldest night of the period may be Monday night as the GFS indicates a center of high pressure moving close to the region, resulting in mostly clear skies and light winds.

Hazardous Weather

Hazardous Weather Outlook (Thursday through Monday):
A strong cold front will move across the region late tonight and Friday morning. Ahead of the front, showers and thunderstorms will become likely tonight. There may be a few isolated strong to severe storms across the region, with the main threat being damaging winds due to rather strong dynamics across the region. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. The severe threat should remain isolated in nature due to limited instability. After the cold front passes, the threat of storms will diminish by Friday morning. People are urged to keep track of this system through a reliable weather service and be ready to take action if a watch or warning is necessary.

No hazardous weather is expected throughout the remainder of the period.

Astronomical and Climatological Data

Moon Phase

Gibbous Waxing
Sunset 4:51 PM
Sunrise 6:31 AM

11/30/06	Normal High	Record High	Normal Low	Record Low
Temperature	66°F	80°F (1967)	45°F	24°F (1976)
November	Normal	Wettest	Driest
Precipitation	5.41 in.	13.65 in. (1948)	0.06 in. (1924)

11/30 in Mobile Area Weather History

In 1977 an early morning tornado struck northern Mobile in Mobile County, AL. The tornado destroyed a home, heavily damaged 5 other homes, and caused minor damage to 8 additional homes along with causing tree and power line damage.

(Data compiled from NWS Mobile, NWS Birmingham, newspaper articles, USA Archives, US Hurricanes and HurricaneCity.com)

Thursday Morning Forecast

2006-11-30T02:00:00.000-06:00

Forecast issued by Justin Gibbs on 11/30/06 at 2:01:51 am CST

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Today	Friday	Saturday	Sunday	Monday

78°F	55°F	56°F	54°F	51°F
	44°F	33°F	32°F	30°F
S 10-20 mph	NW 10-20 mph	NW 2-4 mph	N 2-4 mph	NE 2-4 mph
60%	20%	0%	0%	0%

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Detailed Forecast

Today... Partly cloudy early with clouds increasing by mid afternoon. Showers and Thunderstorms likely, especially in the afternoon. High 78. Winds south 10-20 mph. Chance of rain is 60 percent.
Tonight... Cloudy with showers and thunderstoms likely. Low 44. Winds south 10-20 mph. Chance of rain is 70 percent.
Friday... Partly cloudy with a slight chance of showers. High 55. Winds northwest 10-20 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent.
Friday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 33. Wind chill values as low as 25 degrees are possible. Winds north 5-10 mph.
Saturday... Partly cloudy. High 56. Winds northwest 2-4 mph.
Saturday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 32. Winds north light.
Sunday... Mostly sunny. High 54. Winds north 2-4 mph.
Sunday Night... Mostly clear. Low 30. Wind chill values as low as 19 degrees are possible. Winds north 7-14 mph.
Monday... Mostly sunny. High 51. Winds northeast 2-4 mph.

Technical Discussion

Synopsis:
Upper level low continues to dig eastward this morning. Ahead of it, a powerful surface cylcone and associated cold frontal boundary is providing a messy weather picture across the CNTRL CONUS. WV/RAOB indicates the main trof axis currently looks to be just west of the TX Panhandle with the building sfc low just NE of DFW with a strong cold frontal boundary stretched further north into NERN IL. 0z KLIX sounding shows airmass modification is underway ahead of this approaching storm system, as moisture advects in up to about the 700mb level. Strong subsidence inversion is still evident however in the 650mb area due to very dry air positioned from that level to the tropopause.

Forecast Discussion (Thursday through Monday):
Our relative humidity at 5-600mb doesn't look to make a tremendous change per NAM/GFS guidance as this system moves through. Downstream RAOBs would support this theory with most showing rather large 500mb dewpoint depressions. WV shows a ribbon of more moist air, but guidance picks up on this as well and keeps it held back until after the main energy works through. This drier air is projected to substantially decrease our ML Lapse rates making deeper convection rather unlikely throughout the day.

That being said guidance picks up as it has for the past few days on a rather concentrated low level instability. 0-3km CAPE values are running around 100 j/kg at peak heating, with 0-1km SRH around 130 m2/s2. Total SBCAPE is projected to peak out around 300-400 m2/s2. Deep layer shear looks to lag a bit behind the front but will be around 30-40kts at the time of FROPA. That would lead to the possibility of very low topped convection that might become capable of damaging wind bursts and isolated tornadoes. DCAPEs around 600-700 j/kg would be supportive of damaging downdrafts even in slightly less vigorous convection, especially given the marginally favorable deep layer shear. This seems to be what SPC is keying in on in SWODY2 regarding a previous damaging wind event they are drawing simililarities to.

It looks like Tuesday will play host to a bit of overrunning/WAA precip. Clouds will be off and on throughout the day, leaning more towards the "on" category by afternoon. Guidance has picked up speed on the front in the 0z data. 12/18z brought it through in the 12/14z Friday timeframe where the latest GFS run appears to pull it through around 4-8z. NAM is along the same lines but slightly quicker. Linear extrapolation assuming the 30-35mph speed the front appears to be moving at right now would lean towards the faster GFS solution. Deepening of the low level low that is expected to occur as the upper level trof deepens and digs eastward (and becomes slightly negatively tilted) will help keep this system on track so will tweak the going timing slightly, peaking our precip closer to the 0-1z timeframe and trimming 3rd period pops to 20% while splitting 60/70 likely category pops for the 1st 2nd period. MOS guidance suite shows a rather tremendous spread due to differences in timing of the front so will throw them all out and pretty much go right down the middle. Cooler NAM is too early with front, warmer GFS is too late with it and doesnt appear to factor in any clouds/showers that look rather possible in the prefrontal warm sector. Wide spread continues in MOS guidance on Friday. Like the NAMs handling of surging the cooler air in but prefer the GFSs better synoptic track record so will again split the difference and go with a blustery high of 55. Friday night a strong ridge builds in behind the sfc frontal boundary and guidance has really taken a nose dive on low temperatures. The breadth, intensity, and depth of this frontal boundary leads me to believe its time to bite on this trend. Will go ahead and put our overnight low at 33 degrees and if trends continue a night below freezing under calming winds near the ridge may be possible.

GFS/UKMET/ECMWF/NAM are all now rather bent on brining a very powerful ridge into the central CONUS that effectively takes over the weather pattern for the entire country, brining the first solid shot of winter to much of the mid-contient, and likely to some degree the Gulf Coast. MEX MOS puts our overnight lows near freezing through the duration of the forecast period. A weak trof builds in in the mid levels by Sunday and by Monday morning the gulf coasts 1000-500mb thickness is running between 552 and 546dm. Will be following the theme of MEX MOS into the "icebox" and likely lowering daytime highs by 2-3 degrees to respond better to the rather substantial decrease in our mean column thickness. A few ribbons of mid level moisture will flirt with the region through the weekend so will keep PC skies through the duration. Although it appears Saturday we may go slightly above that as a weak wave passes overhead. Zonal pattern sets up aloft under the powerful low level ridge so will make few day to day changes in the forecast through the early part of next week.

Hazardous Weather

"Hazardous Weather Outlook (Thursday through Monday):
A powerful surface low pressure system will move near the area Friday, bringing with it a strong cold front that is expected to spark showers and thunderstorms in the late afternoon and evening hours. Low level windfields, and relatively strong winds further aloft will lead to a slight chance of isolated severe weather. If severe weather occurs it is most likely to be in the form of isolated tornadoes and damaging winds. Behind the front lies a rather sharp change in our weather pattern as our temperatures are expected to drop and become much cooler for the next few days.

Astronomical and Climatological Data

Moon Phase

Gibbous Waxing
Sunrise 6:30 AM
Sunset 4:51 PM

11/30/06	Normal High	Record High	Normal Low	Record Low
Temperature	66°F	80°F (1967)	45°F	24°F (1976)
November	Normal	Wettest	Driest
Precipitation	5.41 in.	13.65 in. (1948)	0.06 in. (1924)

11/30 in Mobile Area Weather History

(Data compiled from NWS Mobile, NWS Birmingham, newspaper articles, USA Archives, US Hurricanes and HurricaneCity.com)

Tuesday Evening Forecast

2006-11-28T15:35:00.000-06:00

Forecast issued by Michael Leach on 11/28/06 at 3:34:57 pm CST

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Tonight	Tomorrow	Thursday	Friday	Saturday

	75°F	77°F	60°F	61°F
60°F		62°F	58°F	39°F
SE 5-10 mph	SE 10-15 mph	SSE 10-15 mph G 15-30 mph	NW 10-15 mph	N 4-8 mph
0%	30%	50%	30%	0%

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Detailed Forecast

Tonight… Partly cloudy. Areas of fog developing. Fog may be dense at times. Low 60. Winds southeast 5-10 mph.
Tomorrow... Partly cloudy with scattered showers. High 75. Winds southeast 10-15 mph. Chance of rain is 30 percent.
Wednesday Night... Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Low 62. Winds southeast 7-14 mph. Chance of rain is 30 percent.
Thursday... Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain and thunderstorms. High 77. Winds south-southeast 10-15 mph with gusts 15-30 mph. Chance of rain is 50 percent.
Thursday Night... Mostly cloudy with rain and thunderstorms. Low 58. Winds south 10-15 mph. Chance of rain is 70 percent.
Friday... A chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning. Then, decreasing clouds. High 60. Winds northwest 10-15 mph. Chance of rain is 30 percent.
Friday Night... Mostly clear. Low 39. Wind chill values as low as 32 degrees are possible. Winds north 5-10 mph.
Saturday... Partly cloudy. High 61. Winds north 4-8 mph.
Saturday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 43. Winds north-northeast 4-8 mph.

Technical Discussion

Forecast Discussion (Tuesday through Saturday):
The main concerns with this forecast are rain chances throughout the period and the risk of severe weather on Thursday and Thursday night. Also, the possibility of dense fog tonight and Wednesday morning is a concern.

Tonight, warm temperatures are expected as overnight lows will only fall to around 60 degrees. MAV, MET, and FWC guidance all indicate dewpoint depressions around 0 beginning late this evening and during the overnight hours. MOS members also indicate very low visibilities across the areas (all MOS guidance indicates visibility in the lowest category). This points to the potential for dense fog across the area tonight. Will indicate areas of fog, some of which may be dense, in the forecast. Will not include any PoP's for tonight. KMOB WSR-88D does indicate a few isolated showers offshore currently. While some areas may see an isolated shower during the late afternoon or evening hours, do not believe it is a high enough chance to include in the forecast.

For Wednesday, will continue the mention of scattered showers in the forecast. WAA looks to become a little stronger at 850 mb during this time frame, leading to a little more lifting across the area. Some isentropic lifting may also occur across the area. With this said, will go above guidance for PoP's in the Wednesday and Wednesday night time frame, and keep PoP's around 30% for these periods.

Thursday, rain chances will increase as the cold front and associated upper level dynamics move closer to the region. 12z GFS and NAM models have trended a little farther south with the 500 mb negatively-tilted shortwave trough. The models show the axis of the trough across the Mid-South. Models indicate a ~40 kt. LLJ across the area Thursday and Thursday night. The dynamics with this system don't look quite as impressive as with the last system, as the better dynamics look to stay to our north and west. However, with strong wind fields in place, a few isolated strong to severe storms look to be possible (especially if models trend farther south with the trough). CAPE looks to be marginal with this event. Models indicate the highest MUCAPE of only around 500-750 J/kg. NAM indicates 0-3 km SRH values of 150-200 m2/s2 Thursday evening. A GFS model sounding for Thursday evening only indicates CAPE of around 300 J/kg, but most of this is confined to the 850 to 600 mb layer. The sounding indicates helicity of 174 ms/s2, with good speed shear but not much directional shear. With all of this said, some isolated strong to severe storms are possible. At this time, will not mention strong or severe wording in the forecast, but continue to monitor model trends and let future forecasters fine tune the forecast.

Will hold on to 30% PoP for Friday morning to account for a possible slower fropa. Decreasing clouds and CAA should commence on Friday afternoon after fropa, with cooler temperatures moving into the region behind the front. For Saturday, continue northerly flow and slight CAA should continue. With this, expect partly cloudy skies and dry weather on Saturday, with temperatures remaining rather pleasant.

Hazardous Weather

Hazardous Weather Outlook (Tuesday through Saturday):
Areas of fog are expected to develop across the area tonight. Some of the fog may be dense at times. Those planning travel across the region tonight should be aware of the potential for dense fog, and take extra caution in areas of fog.

On Thursday, a cold front is expected to move near the area. Along and ahead of the front, showers and thunderstorms will become likely by Thursday afternoon and evening. A few isolated strong to severe storms are possible. People should keep up to date on the latest forecasts concerning this weather system.

Astronomical and Climatological Data

Moon Phase

First
Sunset 4:51 PM
Sunrise 6:30 AM

11/28/06	Normal High	Record High	Normal Low	Record Low
Temperature	67°F	80°F (2005)	45°F	25°F (1938)
November	Normal	Wettest	Driest
Precipitation	5.41 in.	13.65 in. (1948)	0.06 in. (1924)

Tuesday Morning Forecast

2006-11-28T01:40:00.000-06:00

Forecast issued by Justin Gibbs on 11/28/06 at 1:39:49 am CST

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Today	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday

76°F	75°F	78°F	62°F	61°F
	59°F	63°F	60°F	40°F
SE 5-10 mph	SE 10-15 mph	SE 10-20 mph	NW 10-15 mph	W 4-8 mph
0%	30%	50%	0%	0%

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Detailed Forecast

Today... Partly cloudy. High 76. Winds southeast 5-10 mph.
Tonight... Partly cloudy with fog forming in the evening hours. Dense Fog possible in some areas. Low 59. Winds southeast 7-14 mph.
Wednesday... Partly cloudy with scattered showers. High 75. Winds southeast 10-15 mph. Chance of rain is 30 percent.
Wednesday Night... Partly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low 63. Winds southeast 10-15 mph. Chance of rain is 40 percent.
Thursday... Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. High 78. Winds southeast 10-20 mph. Chance of rain is 50 percent.
Thursday Night... Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. Low 60. Winds south 10-20 mph. Chance of rain is 60 percent.
Friday... Variable clouds with partial clearing in the afternoon. Isolated showers and storms in the morning. High 62. Winds northwest 10-15 mph.
Friday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 40. Wind chill values as low as 34 degrees are possible. Winds northwest 5-10 mph.
Saturday... Partly cloudy. High 61. Winds west 4-8 mph.

Technical Discussion

Synopsis:
Rather active pattern exists over the CONUS this morning with the main theme being ridge east..trough west. Mean deep layer ridge axis looks to be continuing to shift to the east; currently looking to be over GA/NC/WRN VA with the sfc ridge axis in the vcnty of a New Orleans to Atlanta line. However, this ridge is beginning to loosen its grip on our weather as the winds begin to pick up and the main ridge shifts ewd (currently centered over ERN Canada with the trof axis running along the eastern seaboard. Further upstream a once closed upper level low has again reopened as forecast and continues to dig east/southeastward. 0z Data puts the 500mb trof axis along a Sacremento, CA/Portland, OR line as it shifts eastward. This rather robust upper level low has led to surface cyclogenesis which remains underway on the lee side of the rockies. 0z KLIX sounding continues to reveal a very dry airmass with PWATs around 0.67 with strong indications of subsidence in the form of an inversion around 800mb.

Forecast Discussion (Tuesday through Saturday):
Short Term...

Pressure gradient will tighten as the afforementioned low pushes eastward through the first few periods. Going wind forecast looks to be in good shape with SE winds at 5-10mph. NAM/GFS projections show little change in the overall airmass/column thickness for the first period from what we saw today...so feel comfortable with the MOS consensus of 76 which is 1 degree warmer than what we saw today. As the winds move to the southwest, guidance is in solid agreement with a slow modification of our airmass, especially in the lower levels. This slow increase in moisture provides confidence in continuing the going Partly Cloudy forecast in the first period. We will likely see a cloud or two more into the overnight hours as the slow modification continues. 700/850mb/sfc NAM/GFS windfields also continue to support the eeking upward of the wind speeds to the 7-14mph range as the upper level and surface low continue to approach from the west. Main question regarding 2nd period lows revolves around the amount of moisture advection we will see during the day today. Guidance looks to bring dewpoints of 58/60 in by late evening. That lines up well with what we are seeing tonight (looking downstream) so will lean on the more mixed side of things and go with 59 for the second period low. Will also include fog, as an event slightly more substantial than tonights looks to be in the cards as the dewpoint depression looks to drop to 0 at several regional stations by 3-4z. Agreement amongst guidance and MOS and low visibility signals amongst the MOS suite, will go ahead and mention dense fog in some areas and patchy fog metro area wide. Later shifts will likely need to reevaluate this and make mention of what may become a more significant fog event in the overnight hours Tuesday.

Wednesday it appears we will begin to be within flirting range of the warmfront ahead of the surface low. Nevertheless, a slight amount of overrunning looks to be possible during the day Wednesday. Also will bump windfields up a half category to 10-15mph to come into better agreement with the latest GFS guidance which looks good in response to the deepening trof through the column and the subsequent behavior of the sfc storm system. With the tightening windfield and associated overrunning will go with a slight step in the wetter direction with a 30% pop in the afternoon and maintain the going 40% pop in the overnight hours. Will also handle the thunder/no thunder similarly adding the chance of a rumble in the post 0z hours once a bit of elevated instability builds in closer to the warmfrontal boundary. Will remain on the Mostly Cloudy boat through the passage of the storm system due to the substantial column moisture expected to be in place invof the low.

Overall, prefer the slightly slower and HPC endorsed GFS on timing, this brings the main frontal boundary through in the 10z time frame. Will slow this down a few hours to allow for slowdown during a very complex evolution of this storm system. Will go with a mostly cloudy and breezy solution for the Wednesday/Wednesday night period as the warm front passes early in the day and we remain in the warm sector. Mid-level moisture will be somewhat lacking subsequently mid level lapse rates follow suit with nothing greater than 5 c/km indicated in any going guidance. Forecast soundings and MUCAPE plan view fields reveal about 500-1000 j/kg CAPE at peak instability from surface based lifted parcels (elevated instability earlier in the event looks to be in the sub 500 j/kg range.) Best dyanmical support may be just behind the event as during frontal passage we look to be in the 20-40kt range in the 0-6km range. Additionally the best low level jet (>50kts) looks to build in over the lower Ohio Valley as opposed to this region. Backed sfc winds in the warm sector to yield 0-1km SRH values in the 150-200 m2/s2 levels which would help support rotating updrafts in the event of convection in this area.

That being said there are a lot of questions regarding how all of this will come together but it appears we run a relatively conditional threat for severe weather, with it being too early to get detailed as to the main threats. The rain and thunderstorm threats though are pretty cut and dried, so will bump to likely pops for the Wednesday night period and hold the going 50% for the Thursday day period, mainly becuase of questions regarding timing. Will carry the going blustery wind forecast into into the Thursday evening period as well.

Long Term...

Friday the front looks to push through by noon at the very latest, will introduce a 20% pop to ease the possibility of a slowed FROPA into the forecast. Will include morning wording on this however and paint a cooler and breezy forecast picture. Like the going 'variable cloudiness' as the best 4th and 10 scenario for the time being, but additionally believe with the ribbons of moisture behind the front that likely will be the best depiction of sensible wx for the day.

Friday evening looks to be a cool and mostly clear night. MOS consensus is around 42 but will tweak that a touch downward as it appears the cloud cover is a bit too high considering the column moisture that will be present (not to say there won't be any clouds--but there probably won't be quite as many as the GFS is currently forecasting) so will go with a 40 for Friday evening.

Will paint a partly cloudy and 61 degree day for Saturday as a ridge builds to our west.

Hazardous Weather

Hazardous Weather Outlook (Tuesday through Saturday):
Fog will become possible in the evening and overnight hours Tuesday across the Mobile area. Current indications are the fog may be rather widespread and likely will be dense in some areas. Motorists with travel plans for Tuesday night should be prepared for the possibilty of rapidly reduced visibilities in areas of heavy fog. Areas such as the Mobile Bayway and Causeway and areas over and near bodies of water will be most susceptible to dense fog. By midweek organized showers and thunderstorms are expected, there is a slight chance a few of these storms may be severe, mainly on Thursday evening and early Friday morning. It is too early to provide details on the type of severe weather that may occur or exact timing of this system. Residents of the Mobile area should monitor updated forecasts throughout the week as the event nears and more details become available.

Astronomical and Climatological Data

Moon Phase

First
Sunrise 6:29 AM
Sunset 4:51 PM

11/28/06	Normal High	Record High	Normal Low	Record Low
Temperature	67°F	80°F (2005)	45°F	25°F (1938)
November	Normal	Wettest	Driest
Precipitation	5.41 in.	13.65 in. (1948)	0.06 in. (1924)

Tuesday Evening Forecast

2006-11-14T14:43:00.000-06:00

Forecast issued by Michael Leach on 11/14/06 at 2:35:20 pm CST

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Tonight	Tomorrow	Thursday	Friday	Saturday

	74°F	61°F	66°F	67°F
63°F		47°F	40°F	43°F
S 10-20 mph G 15-30 mph	SW 10-20 mph G 15-30 mph	NW 7-14 mph G 10-20 mph	N 5-10 mph	N 5-10 mph
70%	90%	0%	0%	0%

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Detailed Forecast

Tonight… Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms becoming likely. Some storms may be severe late. Low around 45. Winds south 10-20 mph with gusts 15-30 mph. Chance of rain is 70 percent.
Tomorrow... Rain and thunderstorms. Some storms may be severe. High near 71. Winds southwest 10-20 mph with gusts 15-30 mph. Chance of rain is 90 percent.
Wednesday Night... Mostly cloudy with isolated showers, mainly early in the evening. Low around 60. Winds west-northwest 10-15 mph with gusts 15-30 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent.
Thursday... Decreasing clouds. High near 73. Winds northwest 7-14 mph with gusts 10-20 mph.
Thursday Night... Mostly clear. Low around 47. Wind chill values as low as 34 degrees are possible. Winds northwest 5-10 mph.
Friday... Mostly sunny. High near 63. Winds north 5-10 mph.
Friday Night... Clear. Low around 42. Winds north 4-8 mph.
Saturday... Sunny. High near 67. Winds north 5-10 mph.
Saturday Night... Mostly clear. Low around 40. Winds northeast 5-10 mph.

Technical Discussion

"Short Term (Tuesday through Wednesday evening):
The main focus on this forecast will be the potential of severe thunderstorms tonight and Wednesday. Also, strong gradient winds will also be a concern.

12z NAM and GFS guidance in basic agreement with a strong low pressure system moving across the mid-South through Wednesday. The NAM is slightly farther south than the GFS, but not so much so as to really affect any sensible weather. As the low pressure system develops to our northwest, a strong pressure gradient is expected to develop across our area, leading to gusty winds. Basically kept the wind forecast from the previous forecaster, and indicated gusts to 30 mph possible beginning tonight and continuing through Wednesday.

WAA/LLJ should rapidly strengthen across the area tonight. Lifting associated with the WAA should lead to showers and thunderstorms developing across the area tonight (already, radars are showing showers and thunderstorms developing over Louisiana and southern Mississippi). By late tonight and early Wednesday morning, strong convection is expected to develop across the region as the LLJ strengthens more and centers itself close to our area. A warm front moving off the Gulf will also enhance the convection. GFS and NAM forecast soundings indicate CAPE values possibly over 1000 J/kg, with rather substantial positive areas on the sounding. 0-3 km SRH values look to possibly be over 400 m2/s2, with EHI values approaching 3 (per GFS sounding for 18z Wednesday). The LLJ at this time looks to be around 60 kts. Looks like the greatest severe threat will be damaging straight line winds due to the very strong wind fields expected. Directional shear does not look too impressive according to model soundings (although the latest GFS soundings do indicate a touch more directional shear than previous model runs). With this said, believe that we do have an isolated tornado threat. Tornadoes will be most likely in any supercells able to form out ahead of the main squall line, and also in individual cells embedded within the squall line. The NAM appears to be a little slower with fropa than GFS. I believe the front should cross the area by 00z Thursday (6 pm Wednesday), with the squall line preceding the front.

Left in slight chance PoP's for Wednesday night to account for any lingering showers along and just behind the front. Did not clear skies out on Wednesday night as MAV and MET guidance did to account for the possibility of low clouds behind the front.

Long Term (Thursday through Saturday):
On Thursday, indicated decreasing clouds as the low clouds should move off to the east. Drier and cooler weather should be on tap for the end of the week, with mostly sunny skies on Friday and highs in the 60's. High pressure is expected to continue across the area through Saturday, providing us with a northerly wind. CAA and subsidence will dominate this period. "

Hazardous Weather

Hazardous Weather Outlook (Tuesday through Saturday):
An intense storm system that is expected to stengthen over the plains later today and move toward the area. As it does, warm moist air will surge nortward ahead of the system and set the stage for a potential severe weather event. Strong low-level wind fields will support storms to become organized pose a threat of wind damage. Although damaging winds is expected to be the primary threat, large hail and isolated tornadoes will be possible. Thunderstorms should increase in coverage tonight and be scattered across the area into the morning hours on Wednesday. As the system passes later during the afternoon on Wednesday, a line of thunderstorms will likely sweep across the area bringing the highest threat for severe weather. The most likely time for this line to impact the area will be from early to mid afternoon. Residence should review severe weather safety information and be prepared to take action should severe weather threaten. Now is a good time to develop a plan of action if you do not already have one. Monitor a reliable weather source, such as NOAA Weather Radio, for the latest on the dangerous weather situation.

Astronomical and Climatological Data

Moon Phase

Last
Sunset 4:55 PM
Sunrise 6:18 AM

11/14/06	Normal High	Record High	Normal Low	Record Low
Temperature	70°F	82°F (1955)	48°F	32°F (1986)
November	Normal	Wettest	Driest
Precipitation	5.41 in.	13.65 in. (1948)	0.06 in. (1924)

11/14 in Mobile Area Weather History

In 1983 an early evening storm dropped an F0 tornado near Fulton in Clarke County, AL where a roof of a home was damaged and several trees were downed.

(Data compiled from NWS Mobile, NWS Birmingham, newspaper articles, USA Archives, US Hurricanes and HurricaneCity.com)

Tuesday Morning Forecast - UPDATE

2006-11-14T11:47:00.000-06:00

Forecast issued by Randy Bowers on 11/14/06 at 11:36:39 am CST

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Today	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday

70°F	74°F	62°F	68°F	73°F
	65°F	48°F	39°F	40°F
SE 10-15 mph	SW 10-20 mph	NW 10-20 mph	W 2-4 mph	W 2-4 mph
60%	90%	0%	0%	0%

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Detailed Forecast

This Afternoon...Cloudy showers and thunderstorms becoming likely. High 70. Winds southeast 10-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph late. Chance of rain is 70 percent.
Tonight... Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms. Some storms may be severe with damaging winds. Low 65. Winds south 15-25 mph with higher gusts possible, especially toward daybreak. Chance of rain is 90 percent.
Wednesday... Cloudy with rain and thunderstorms. Some storms may be severe with damaging winds. High 74. Winds southwest 15-25 mph with higher gusts. Chance of rain is 90 percent.
Wednesday Night... Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of showers. Low 48. Winds northwest 10-20 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent.
Thursday... Mostly cloudy with decreasing clouds late. High 62. Winds northwest 10-20 mph.
Thursday Night... Mostly clear. Low 39. Winds west 2-4 mph.
Friday... Mostly sunny. High 68. Winds west 2-4 mph.
Friday Night... Mostly clear. Low 40. Winds west 2-4 mph.
Saturday... Mostly sunny. High 73. Winds west 2-4 mph.

Technical Discussion

"Forecast Discussion (Tuesday through Saturday):
Quick update to adjust timing. Have introduced likely PoP for later today based on latest RUC/short term analysis and radar trends. Quciker WAA onset than models had previously shown. Also, adjusted winds for first period. Went with categorical PoPs overnight as well. -Prvious AFD sent 3:00 am CST- Main focus for this forecast will be potent mid/upper trough that is to impact the area starting tonight. Several concerns with this system from strong gradient winds, to potential for severe tstms and heavy rainfall. Sfc ridge axis located over the area early this morning with calm winds at KMOB last hr. Td/T depressions narrowing and a few areas of fog has formed per area ASOS network. Fog that does form later this morning should mix out quickly with diurnal heating. Meanwhile, Srly flow should increase dramatically throughout the day in response to lee sfc cyclogenesis evolving as a result of digging/amplifying mid/upper trough. Per previous AFDs and HPC PMDHMD, NAM has trended deeper/further south and slightly slower over the past few runs. This results in more intense sfc cyclone over the Mid-South with a slightly further south track than previously expected. Strength and position of surface low raises concern for strong gradient winds. In fact, 00z guidance consensus is for slightly stronger winds than going forecast has. Have raised pre-frontal sfc winds in public forecast in Tue night-Wed timeframe. Post-frontal winds were also on the low side and chose to increase as well. LLJ/WAA expected to strengthen dramatically late Tue/Tue night w/ potential for WAA SHRA/TSRA as soon as Tuesday evening. Have thus reintroduced PoP for Tue night period and have chosen to go likely. Toward daybreak Wed, position of 850 mb LLJ and warm front/best low-level moisture favors increased potential for deep convection. GFS and NAM forecast soundings both indicating rather substantial positive area w/ column CAPE AOA 1800 J/KG. Much of this is located in the lower portion of the column where best lapse rates reside. Significant 0-3 km CAPE and strong shear yielding EHI values approaching 3. NAM is overall weak with mid-level lapse rates, while GFS is slightly steeper but shows a rather substantial inversion between 500 mb and 700 mb. Feel that given this, best chance for deep convection would be in the form of a squall line during the afternoon where forcing/convergence along sfc boundary should be sufficient. Convection along the warm front or discrete cells in the warm sector likely to remain rather shallow. Despite this, low-level speed shear will be significant. 0-1 km shear AOA 35 kts or greater will be present. Given this, damaging winds would be a concern in even shallow convection. Undoubtedly, damaging winds will be the primary severe wx concern given intense wind fields. Directional shear in the lowest 3 km not overly impressive and substantial tornado threat is therefore not expected. Still, sufficient directional shear combined with intense speed shear will be enough for the threat of isolated tornadoes, particularly in discrete cells or embedded supercells within the line. Current thinking is that convection will increase in coverage/intensity overnight Tue night with pcpn coverage probably attaining likely criteria by or just before daybreak as warm front passes. Scattered to numerous convection likely to persist in warm sector before fropa/squall line passage early/mid-afternoon. Post-frontal lingering moisture should result in overcast through at least early-afternoon Thur, and possibly the entire day. Have worded the public forecast accordingly. A quick peak at the 06z NAM shows a slightly slower/less intense system overall w/ 500 mb hieght falls not quite as strong as previous run. Also, fropa is delayed slighty to about 22z. This should not require much in the way of changes in the 00z-based forecast package and will leave all the same for now. Later shifts will want to consider timing trends if nothing else. "

Hazardous Weather

Astronomical and Climatological Data

Moon Phase

Last
Sunrise 6:17 AM
Sunset 4:55 PM

11/14/06	Normal High	Record High	Normal Low	Record Low
Temperature	70°F	82°F (1955)	48°F	32°F (1986)
November	Normal	Wettest	Driest
Precipitation	5.41 in.	13.65 in. (1948)	0.06 in. (1924)

11/14 in Mobile Area Weather History

In 1983 an early evening storm dropped an F0 tornado near Fulton in Clarke County, AL where a roof of a home was damaged and several trees were downed.

(Data compiled from NWS Mobile, NWS Birmingham, newspaper articles, USA Archives, US Hurricanes and HurricaneCity.com)

Tuesday Morning Forecast

2006-11-14T03:19:00.000-06:00

Forecast issued by Randy Bowers on 11/14/06 at 3:05:12 am CST

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Today	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday

71°F	74°F	62°F	68°F	73°F
	63°F	48°F	39°F	40°F
S 10-20 mph	SW 10-20 mph	NW 10-20 mph	W 2-4 mph	W 2-4 mph
10%	90%	0%	0%	0%

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Detailed Forecast

Today... Areas of fog this morning giving way to mostly sunny skies. Becoming partly cloudy during the afternoon. High 71. Light south wind increasing to 10 to 20 mph late.
Tonight... Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms becoming likely. Low 63. Winds south at 15 to 25 mph with gusts around 30 mph. Chance of rain is 60 percent.
Wednesday... Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms. Some storms may be severe with damaging winds. High 74. Winds southwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts to around 30 mph. Chance of rain is 90 percent.
Wednesday Night... Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of showers. Low 48. Winds northwest 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent.
Thursday... Mostly cloudy. High 62. Winds northwest 10 to 20 mph.
Thursday Night... Mostly clear. Low 39. Winds west 4 to 8 mph.
Friday... Mostly sunny. High 68. Winds west 2 to 4 mph.
Friday Night... Mostly clear. Low 40. Winds west 2 to 4 mph.
Saturday... Mostly sunny. High 73. Winds west 2 to 4 mph.

Technical Discussion

Main focus for this forecast will be potent mid/upper trough that is to impact the area starting tonight. Several concerns with this system from strong gradient winds, to potential for severe tstms and heavy rainfall.

Sfc ridge axis located over the area early this morning with calm winds at KMOB last hr. Td/T depressions narrowing and a few areas of fog has formed per area ASOS network. Fog that does form later this morning should mix out quickly with diurnal heating. Meanwhile, Srly flow should increase dramatically throughout the day in response to lee sfc cyclogenesis evolving as a result of digging/amplifying mid/upper trough. Per previous AFDs and HPC PMDHMD, NAM has trended deeper/further south and slightly slower over the past few runs. This results in more intense sfc cyclone over the Mid-South with a slightly further south track than previously expected. Strength and position of surface low raises concern for strong gradient winds. In fact, 00z guidance consensus is for slightly stronger winds than going forecast has. Have raised pre-frontal sfc winds in public forecast in Tue night-Wed timeframe. Post-frontal winds were also on the low side and chose to increase as well.

LLJ/WAA expected to strengthen dramatically late Tue/Tue night w/ potential for WAA SHRA/TSRA as soon as Tuesday evening. Have thus reintroduced PoP for Tue night period and have chosen to go likely. Toward daybreak Wed, position of 850 mb LLJ and warm front/best low-level moisture favors increased potential for deep convection. GFS and NAM forecast soundings both indicating rather substantial positive area w/ column CAPE AOA 1800 J/KG. Much of this is located in the lower portion of the column where best lapse rates reside. Significant 0-3 km CAPE and strong shear yielding EHI values approaching 3. NAM is overall weak with mid-level lapse rates, while GFS is slightly steeper but shows a rather substantial inversion between 500 mb and 700 mb. Feel that given this, best chance for deep convection would be in the form of a squall line during the afternoon where forcing/convergence along sfc boundary should be sufficient. Convection along the warm front or discrete cells in the warm sector likely to remain rather shallow. Despite this, low-level speed shear will be significant. 0-1 km shear AOA 35 kts or greater will be present. Given this, damaging winds would be a concern in even shallow convection. Undoubtedly, damaging winds will be the primary severe wx concern given intense wind fields. Directional shear in the lowest 3 km not overly impressive and substantial tornado threat is therefore not expected. Still, sufficient directional shear combined with intense speed shear will be enough for the threat of isolated tornadoes, particularly in discrete cells or embedded supercells within the line.

Current thinking is that convection will increase in coverage/intensity overnight Tue night with pcpn coverage probably attaining likely criteria by or just before daybreak as warm front passes. Scattered to numerous convection likely to persist in warm sector before fropa/squall line passage early/mid-afternoon.

Post-frontal lingering moisture should result in overcast through at least early-afternoon Thur, and possibly the entire day. Have worded the public forecast accordingly.

A quick peak at the 06z NAM shows a slightly slower/less intense system overall w/ 500 mb hieght falls not quite as strong as previous run. Also, fropa is delayed slighty to about 22z. This should not require much in the way of changes in the 00z-based forecast package and will leave all the same for now. Later shifts will want to consider timing trends if nothing else.

Hazardous Weather

Astronomical and Climatological Data

Moon Phase

Last
Sunrise 6:17 AM
Sunset 4:55 PM

11/14/06	Normal High	Record High	Normal Low	Record Low
Temperature	70°F	82°F (1955)	48°F	32°F (1986)
November	Normal	Wettest	Driest
Precipitation	5.41 in.	13.65 in. (1948)	0.06 in. (1924)

11/14 in Mobile Area Weather History

In 1983 an early evening storm dropped an F0 tornado near Fulton in Clarke County, AL where a roof of a home was damaged and several trees were downed.

(Data compiled from NWS Mobile, NWS Birmingham, newspaper articles, USA Archives, US Hurricanes and HurricaneCity.com)

Monday Morning Forecast

2006-11-13T04:39:00.000-06:00

Forecast issued by Justin Gibbs on 11/13/06 at 4:31:26 am CST

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Today	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday

68°F	70°F	73°F	64°F	67°F
	46°F	59°F	57°F	43°F
Calm	NW 5-10 mph	SW 15-30 mph	NW 7-14 mph	W 4-8 mph
0%	10%	70%	0%	0%

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Detailed Forecast

Today... Mostly sunny. High 68. Winds calm.
Tonight... Partly cloudy. Low 46. Winds north light.
Tuesday... Variable cloudiness. High 70. Winds southwest 5-10 mph.
Tuesday Night... Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low 59. Winds south 10-20 mph. Chance of rain is 50 percent.
Wednesday... Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. High 73. Winds southwest 15-30 mph. Chance of rain is 70 percent.
Wednesday Night... Variable cloudiness with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low 57. Winds west 15-30 mph. Chance of rain is 30 percent.
Thursday... Mostly sunny. High 64. Winds northwest 7-14 mph.
Thursday Night... Mostly clear. Low 43. Winds northwest 7-14 mph.
Friday... Mostly sunny. High 67. Winds west 4-8 mph.

Technical Discussion

Synopsis:
Several major players are affecting our weather this morning as a complex forecast scenario unfolds.

Upper level analysis reveals zonal flow in the upper levels over the northcentral Gulf coast as a jet max associated with the subtropical jet slides just to our south this morning. Further north, weak ridging exists as the flow splits either side of a vertically stacked closed low located just off the eastern VA/NC coast. As you approach the surface, ridging becomes evident in the 700/850mb level. This picture is reflected well in WV imagery this morning which also gives away a larger upper level disturbance pushing eastward across the central CONUS. A rather weak sfc low and associated frontal boundaries can also be found with the warm front/associated upper level divergence responsible for a trail of showers and storms across CNTRL MO/AR. Closer to home a bone dry airmass is in place with 0z LIX sounding showing a PWAT value of 0.29in. and a noticable subsidence inversion.

" "Forecast Discussion (Monday through Friday):
First and second periods will be most affected by the afforementioned upper level wave. Trof axis is forecast by both WRF/GFS to push through around 0z Tuesday. Fcst soundings indicate some disagreement between those two models with GFS being much more aggressive with column moisture. Both models appear to have initialized reasonably well, but NAM has performed better through the first 12 hours of the model run, so will go with the slightly drier NAM and keep all pcpn out of the forecast tonight. This is supported with a lack of overall divergence aloft, and associated low level vertical motion, and an overall lack of a substantial isentropic upglide signal in guidance. Will increase cloud cover slightly to announce the shortwaves presence. For first period high will go with majority MOS which seems to handle the less CAA oriented airmass but slightly lower overall column height well, and go with a high of 68. Will go 1 degree above MOS majority at 46 for second period low.

Tuesday business begins to pick up as by midday a substantial airmass modification is forecast to be underway. We will likely start the day relatively cool and dry but the column is forecast to rapidly moisten ahead of an approaching upper level wave. Main fcst challenge this period is timing of warmfrontal boundary and type/amount of convection/precip that will be associated with it. For now will handle the forecast by increasing cloud cover to Partly Sunny for the Wednesday period and allowing a fairly large wind spread from 5-15 mph from the south as we will start off fairly weak and pick up by late afternoon. GFS/NAM forecast soundings reveal a rather dry airmass aloft with a very thin low level moisture level until later in the evening; so most cloud cover is expected to be in the thin low level strat deck variety. Will go with a high of 69 on Tuesday as WAA should overcome some of the lack of insolation expected from the cloud cover.

Tuesday night is when the forecast becomes the most tricky. Main dynamics move into place as the sfc warmfrontal boundary surges northward as the main upper level trough rapidly and dramatically amplifies. Sfc low responds in kind as do our low level windfields, as well as our deeper layer windfields. Will increase winds to 15-25 mph and introduce a 50% pop with increasing clouds. Severe weather also appears to become possible in the overnight hours Wednesday as instability increases with moisture/warm air advection and speed and directional shear improve dramatically. The best directional shear appears as one would expect to occur while we remain in the vicinity of the warm front in the overnight hours Tuesday. 0-3km SRH values per NAM are at 498 m2/s2 while GFS is somewhat lower at 317 m2/s2. This directional shear however becomes much more unidirectional as the main upper level wave approaches and the flow on the whole becomes stronger, which is after the warm front moves well to the north. That will present the question as to whether or not we will become unstable enough and have sufficient shear in place for much in the way of convection/severe weather and subsequently, isolated tornadoes that would be associated with such a scenario. At this point it does not appear that scenario is particuarly likely but later shifts will need to keep a very close eye on this possibility.

At 12z Wednesday GFS projects a very dynamically impressive scenario with the WRF not lagging far behind. GFS paints 20-25kt sfc winds at a 50-60kt LLJ with 700-500mb winds in the 80-100kt category. With this type of windfield substantial moisture advection will be underway and our column is forecast to become rather saturated, which is expected to lead to rather substantial cloud cover which is projected to limit instability somewhat. With GFS/NAM overall picture painting CAPE values around 600-1000 j/kg with LIs in the -2/-3 range at the peak. FROPA timing is the main challenge this morning as ever so slightly slower guidance continues to trickle in, with the best guess now at a 20-21z FROPA Wednesday, but the trend indicates a slightly slower scenario. Agree very much with SPCs thinking on this event which involves the possibility of a few isolated storms/supercells out ahead of the main front in the warm sector due to the more than substantial deep layer shear, with a strongly forced squall line/MCS racing eastward ahead of the front. Timing of this feature is obviously virtually impossible at the moment and that feature will have a major impact on the type of weather we see. If the system is somewhat slower to initiate and doesn't push through til 2-3pm Wednesday we obviously would have a little better instability in place. Using the trof axis to time where the strongest upper level forcing will be in place it appears this is a plausible scenario. For now will go with a 70% pop but hold off on ""severe"" wording in the actual forecast product. In the worst case scenario it appears we could see a rather serious squall line/MCS event with damaging winds possibly large hail in the strongest cells and embedded tornadoes. With the main limiting factor being a bit of a lack in instability, which likely would be overcome by the tremendous dynamics in place. However, it is still too early to pin down the likelihood of such a scenario occuring.

Wednesday evening is only made challenging by the GFS appearing to flatten the front out along the coast and leave us with the possibility of a post 0z FROPA. Given the tremendous dynamics pushing this frontal boundary and the fact it is nearly perpendicular throughout the event to the mean flow have discounted this solution and gone with the more progressive NAM. However, have left a 30% pop in to allow for any lingering postfrontal moisture as both models indicate at the possibility of a little wraparound moisture behind this very powerful deep layer low that may work its way in to our airmass and fall as anafrontal precip. This also allows us to gently slow FROPA if that becomes prudent.

Thursday things calm substantially under strong northwesterly flow at the sfc and aloft. Will keep winds fairly brisk in the 5-15 mph range through Thursday and Thursday Night. Will go slightly below MOS due to the depth and bredth of this apparent plunge of cool air. Friday also looks cool and mostly clear with Friday night being the coolest night of the period as a sfc ridge axis moves across the region and our winds calm.

Hazardous Weather

Hazardous Weather Outlook (Monday through Friday):
A powerful storm system will affect the region Tuesday and Wednesday. A warm front is currently forecast to move northward through the area late Tuesday into early Wednesday, organized thunderstorms may develop along and just south of this boundary. There is a slight chance of isolated tornadoes and damaging winds during this timeframe.

Thunderstorms will remain possible throughout the day Wednesday and the threat for organized thunderstorm activity will reach a peak as a powerful upper level storm system and associated cold front push through during the day Wednesday. There is a better chance of damaging winds, and possibly isolated tornadoes and small hail, during this time period. The most likely scenario will involve a line of thunderstorms in the afternoon hours Wednesday.

There are several questions that remain with this system and residents of the Mobile area should monitor for updated forecasts regarding the possibility of severe weather.

Astronomical and Climatological Data

Moon Phase

Last
Sunrise 6:16 AM
Sunset 4:56 PM

11/13/06	Normal High	Record High	Normal Low	Record Low
Temperature	71°F	83°F (2005)	48°F	31°F (1911)
November	Normal	Wettest	Driest
Precipitation	5.41 in.	13.65 in. (1948)	0.06 in. (1924)

11/13 in Mobile Area Weather History

In 1972 an afternoon storm produced an F2 tornado in Rosinton in Baldwin County, AL that destroyed a barn, damaged the Rosinton school, unroofed the Rosinton school gym, and damaged several other buildings.

(Data compiled from NWS Mobile, NWS Birmingham, newspaper articles, USA Archives, US Hurricanes and HurricaneCity.com)

Thursday Evening Forecast

2006-11-09T15:26:00.000-06:00

Forecast issued by Michael Leach on 11/09/06 at 3:18:49 pm CST

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Tonight	Tomorrow	Saturday	Sunday	Monday

	80°F	76°F	72°F	76°F
59°F		61°F	53°F	55°F
Lgt S	S 5-10 mph	W 5-10 mph	ENE 5-10 mph	SE 5-10 mph
0%	0%	30%	0%	20%

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Detailed Forecast

Tonight… Mostly clear. Low 59. Winds south light.
Tomorrow... Partly cloudy. High 80. Winds south 5-10 mph.
Friday Night... Mostly cloudy with isolated showers, mainly late. Low 61. Winds south-southwest 4-8 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent.
Saturday... Mostly cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms. High 76. Winds west 5-10 mph, becoming northwest in the afternoon. Chance of rain is 30 percent.
Saturday Night... Decreasing clouds. Low 53. Winds north 5-10 mph.
Sunday... Partly cloudy. High 72. Winds east-northeast 5-10 mph.
Sunday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 55. Winds east 4-8 mph.
Monday... Partly cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms. High 76. Winds southeast 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent.
Monday Night... Partly cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms. Low 63. Winds south 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent.

Technical Discussion

Synopsis:
High pressure centered over the north-central Gulf of Mexico continues to dominate the weather across the region today. At 18z, HPC analyzed the center of high pressure due south of Pensacola, FL. The anticyclonic flow around the high is giving us a southwesterly wind at Mobile today. Temperatures are warm, with MOB reporting 78 degrees at 20z.

Forecast Discussion (Thursday through Monday):
It's mainly a temperature forecast for tonight and Friday. Basically took a blend of MAV and MET for tonight, and went slightly above guidance for Friday. With the warm air mass in place, and since MOS guidance is based somewhat on climatology, I believe the actual highs may be a couple of degrees warmer on Friday than the upper 70's MAV and MET is advertising. The forecasted values are close to 12z FWC guidance. At 850 mb, weak WAA looks to take shape on Friday.

The next concern involves rain chances on Friday night and Saturday. Rain chances do not look particularly high with this system. For one, the main dynamics will be passing well to the north of our area. Also, WAA does not looks to get too well established at 850 mb by the time the front moves through. 12z GFS graphics indicate a narrow band of QPF in association with the front, while the NAM indicates only isolated pockets of QPF this far south. Will go between these solutions, and have low-chance PoP's for Saturday. Will also introduce a slight PoP for late Friday night.

After fropa, winds will shift to the north on Saturday night, with slightly cooler temperatures. By Sunday, however, winds will begin to shift more to the east as high pressure over the Ohio Valley moves east. Sunday looks dry at this point. On Monday, WAA will become better established as winds shift to the southeast and eventually south. With the WAA, and the associated increasing moisture, will include a slight PoP for Monday and Monday night. A more significant chance of rain and thunderstorms is expected by Tuesday or Wednesday as a stronger storm system approaches the area.
ML

Hazardous Weather

Hazardous Weather Outlook (Thursday through Monday):
No hazardous weather is expected through the forecast period.

Astronomical and Climatological Data

Moon Phase

Gibbous Waning
Sunset 4:58 PM
Sunrise 6:14 AM

11/09/06	Normal High	Record High	Normal Low	Record Low
Temperature	72°F	83°F (1986)	49°F	30°F (1991)
November	Normal	Wettest	Driest
Precipitation	5.41 in.	13.65 in. (1948)	0.06 in. (1924)

Tuesday Evening Forecast

2006-11-07T15:27:00.000-06:00

Forecast issued by Michael Leach on 11/07/06 at 3:19:38 pm CST

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Tonight	Tomorrow	Thursday	Friday	Saturday

	73°F	80°F	80°F	77°F
52°F		54°F	59°F	62°F
WNW 5-10 mph	W 5-10 mph	SSW 5-10 mph	S 5-10 mph	WNW 5-10 mph
0%	0%	0%	0%	20%

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Detailed Forecast

Tonight… Decreasing clouds. Low 52. Winds west-northwest 5-10 mph.
Tomorrow... Mostly sunny. High 73. Winds west 5-10 mph.
Wednesday Night... Mostly clear. Low 54. Winds west light.
Thursday... Mostly sunny. High 80. Winds south-southwest 5-10 mph.
Thursday Night... Mostly clear. Low 59. Winds south light.
Friday... Partly cloudy. High 80. Winds south 5-10 mph.
Friday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 62. Winds southwest 4-8 mph.
Saturday... Partly cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms. High 77. Winds west-northwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent.
Saturday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 54. Winds northwest 4-8 mph.

Technical Discussion

Synopsis:
19z RUC analysis indicates a cold core upper level low centered over northwestern Alabama. The associated trough extended southward over the central Gulf of Mexico. At the surface, HPC analyzed a cold front extending from the Big Bend of Florida into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. At KMOB, winds were northwesterly at the surface and 850 mb, and slight CAA was noted over the area.

Forecast Discussion (Tuesday through Saturday):
For tonight, skies should continue to clear as slight CAA continues over the area. The air mass behind the cold front is of Pacific origin, so no major cool down is anticipated, although overnight lows the next couple of nights will be slightly cooler than previous nights. Wednesday should be a nice day, with mostly sunny skies and continued slight CAA leading to subsidence across the area.

Winds at the surface are expected to shift to the south on Thursday, and the CAA at 850 mb will cease. Southerly winds will continue on Friday. At 500 mb, a ridge is expected to build across the area. The result will be dry and warm conditions on Thursday and Friday. High temperatures are expected to be around 5 to 10 degrees above average. Record highs are 83 and 82 for Thursday and Friday, respectively. Current forecast has highs just below record values, but the records could be in jeopardy. Indicated a slight increase in clouds on Friday in advance of the next cold front to affect the region.

On Saturday, a cold front is expected to approach the area. The 12z GFS indicates the best dynamics staying well to the north of the region, associated with a trough over the Ohio Valley. As a result, very little QPF is noted along the front on GFS graphics. The confidence in this forecast is low, however, as the 00z GFS indicated a stronger trough farther to the south (extending into northwest Alabama), and more QPF over us. MEX guidance increases PoP's to 35% for Saturday, but that looks too high to me at this time. For now, will just indicate a slight chance of rain for Saturday and await better model continuity.
ML

Hazardous Weather

Hazardous Weather Outlook (Tuesday through Saturday):
No hazardous weather is expected through the forecast period.

Astronomical and Climatological Data

Moon Phase

Full Moon
Sunset 5:00 PM
Sunrise 6:12 AM

11/07/06	Normal High	Record High	Normal Low	Record Low
Temperature	72°F	85°F (1935)	50°F	27°F (1959)
November	Normal	Wettest	Driest
Precipitation	5.41 in.	13.65 in. (1948)	0.06 in. (1924)

11/07 in Mobile Area Weather History

In 1989 an early morning storm dropped an F0 tornado southeast of Bay Minette in Baldwin County, AL that damaged a barn, unroofed a mobile home, and uprooted trees.

(Data compiled from NWS Mobile, NWS Birmingham, newspaper articles, USA Archives, US Hurricanes and HurricaneCity.com)

Thursday Evening Forecast

2006-11-02T15:02:00.000-06:00

Forecast issued by Michael Leach on 11/02/06 at 2:54:00 pm CST

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Tonight	Tomorrow	Saturday	Sunday	Monday

	65°F	68°F	71°F	75°F
38°F		39°F	46°F	53°F
N 7-14 mph	N 7-14 mph	E 5-10 mph	E 5-10 mph	SE 5-10 mph
0%	0%	0%	0%	10%

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Detailed Forecast

Tonight… Clear. Low 38. Wind chill values as low as 30 degrees are possible. Winds north 7-14 mph.
Tomorrow... Sunny. High 65. Winds north 7-14 mph.
Friday Night... Clear. Low 39. Wind chill values as low as 32 degrees are possible. Winds northeast 5-10 mph.
Saturday... Mostly sunny. High 68. Winds east 5-10 mph.
Saturday Night... Mostly clear. Low 46. Winds east 4-8 mph.
Sunday... Partly cloudy. High 71. Winds east 5-10 mph.
Sunday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 53. Winds east-southeast 4-8 mph.
Monday... Partly cloudy. High 75. Winds southeast 5-10 mph.
Monday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 56. Winds southeast 4-8 mph.

Technical Discussion

Synopsis:
Skies have cleared nicely across the Mobile area this afternoon. The stratoculumus deck of clouds that was over the area this morning has moved to our south, and skies are now mostly sunny across the region. A ridge of high pressure (centered over Oklahoma) is beginning to move into the region.

Forecast Discussion (Tonight Through Monday):
The main weather story is the cold airmass moving into the region. If tonight's forecasted low of 38 is reached, it will be the coldest value so far this fall season at KMOB. With clear skies, temperatures will likely fall rapidly after sunset. Models indicate that winds will remain rather strong (in the 5-15 mph range) tonight, so that may temper the cooling trend somewhat. Still, MOS guidance indicates lows in the upper 30's tonight, and will go close to MAV and MET guidance.

Models indicating the ridge of high pressure remaining over the area through most of the weekend. In the upper levels, models indicate mostly zonal flow at 500 mb, with no perturbations in the mean flow. At 700 and 850 mb, ridging will continue across the area. Friday will be similar to today, with high temperatures in the middle 60's. Friday night will be cold once again under clear skies. Once again on Friday night, models indicating that winds will stay in the 5-10 mph range, so lows may not be as cold as they could be. By Saturday, as the center of high pressure moves east, winds will shift to a more easterly direction. This will continue through Sunday. Models indicate a slight increase in moisture Saturday night through Sunday, but no rainfall is expected as lifting mechanisms will not be strong. Temperatures will moderate slightly by the end of the weekend, but no significant WAA is expected through the weekend.

By Monday, WAA will become better established across the area. As a result, temperatures will continue to warm and moisture will continue to increase as surface wind flow becomes southeasterly. The GFS indicate some light QPF near the area by Monday afternoon, and MEX guidance increases PoP's to around 20%. For now, will just introduce a 'silent' 10 PoP in the official forecast and will continue to watch the evolution of models for early next week. Nevertheless, no significant weather systems are expected through the forecast period.
ML

Hazardous Weather

Hazardous Weather Outlook (Thursday through Monday):
No hazardous weather is expected through the forecast period.

Astronomical and Climatological Data

Moon Phase

Gibbous Waxing
Sunset 5:03 PM
Sunrise 6:08 AM

11/02/06	Normal High	Record High	Normal Low	Record Low
Temperature	75°F	87°F (1971)	51°F	30°F (1966)
November	Normal	Wettest	Driest
Precipitation	5.41 in.	13.65 in. (1948)	0.06 in. (1924)

Tuesday Evening Forecast

2006-10-31T15:40:00.000-06:00

Forecast issued by Michael Leach on 10/31/06 at 3:34:37 pm CST

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Tonight	Tomorrow	Thursday	Friday	Saturday

	80°F	70°F	69°F	70°F
60°F		55°F	43°F	43°F
Lgt & Var	Var 4-8 mph	N 7-14 mph	NE 5-10 mph	ENE 4-8 mph
10%	20%	20%	0%	0%

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Detailed Forecast

Tonight… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 60. Winds variable and light.
Tomorrow... Partly cloudy with isolated showers. High 80. Winds variable 4-8 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent.
Wednesday Night... Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Low 55. Winds northwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent.
Thursday... Partly cloudy with isolated showers, mainly in the morning. High 70. Winds north 7-14 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent.
Thursday Night... Mostly clear. Low 43. Winds north 5-10 mph.
Friday... Mostly sunny. High 69. Winds northeast 5-10 mph.
Friday Night... Mostly clear. Low 43. Winds northeast 4-8 mph.
Saturday... Mostly sunny. High 70. Winds east-northeast 4-8 mph.
Saturday Night... Mostly clear. Low 47. Winds east 4-8 mph.

Technical Discussion

Forecast Discussion (Tonight through Saturday):
The main focus of this forecast is the cold front expected to pass across the region this week and the associated rain chances. Rain chances look low with this front, as the better upper level dynamics will remain well to the north of the Mobile region. Models indicating very little QPF as the front moves through. MOS members in agreement with only slight PoP's for Wednesday and Wednesday night, and will indicate 20% PoP's for this period. On Thursday, the MAV MOS basically removes PoP's, while the MET guidance still indicates PoP's around 20%, especially early in the day. I thought about removing PoP's completely for Thursday, but left in a 20 PoP, especially for the morning hours.

Wednesday looks to be another warm day, with high temperatures around 5 degrees above average for this time of the year. By late Wednesday night and Thursday morning, winds are expected to shift to the northwest and eventually north behind the front. CAA will take control of the weather, and cooler temperatures will affect the region. Thursday night looks rather chilly, with skies becoming mostly clear. Models indicate winds staying in the 5-10 mph range Thursday night, but if the winds are lighter, the low may be cooler than the 43 now forecasted. On Friday and Saturday, a ridge of high pressure will be in control of the weather. CAA and subsidence will continue both days, leading to mostly sunny days and cool nights. High temperatures will struggle to get out of the 60's, with lows again in the lower 40's on Friday night.
ML

Hazardous Weather

Hazardous Weather Outlook (Tuesday through Saturday):
No hazardous weather is expected through the forecast period.

Astronomical and Climatological Data

Moon Phase

Gibbous Waxing
Sunset 5:05 PM
Sunrise 6:06 AM

10/31/06	Normal High	Record High	Normal Low	Record Low
Temperature	75°F	88°F (1950)	51°F	30°F (1993)
October	Normal	Wettest	Driest
Precipitation	3.25 in.	13.20 in. (1985)	0.00 in. (1874)

10/31 in Mobile Area Weather History

In 1897 an F2 tornado hit the Seminole community in Baldwin County, AL killing one person and injuring 5 others. Small homes were destroyed along the tornado's path.

(Data compiled from NWS Mobile, NWS Birmingham, newspaper articles, USA Archives, US Hurricanes and HurricaneCity.com)

2006-10-26T15:51:00.000-05:00

Forecast issued by Michael Leach on 10/26/06 at 3:43:10 pm CDT

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Tonight	Tomorrow	Saturday	Sunday	Monday

	77°F	68°F	74°F	75°F
65°F		56°F	51°F	53°F
SE 10-15 mph	S 10-20 mph	WNW 5-10 mph	W 5-10 mph	E 5-10 mph
80%	80%	0%	0%	0%

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Detailed Forecast

Tonight… Mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the evening, then showers and thunderstorms becoming more numerous after midnight. A few storms may be severe late. Low 65. Winds southeast 10-15 mph. Chance of rain is 80 percent.
Tomorrow... Showers and thunderstorms. A few storms may be severe and rainfall may be heavy at times. High 77. Winds south 10-20 mph. Chance of rain is 80 percent.
Friday Night... Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the evening. Low 56. Winds northwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 40 percent.
Saturday... Partly cloudy. High 68. Winds west-northwest 5-10 mph.
Saturday Night... Mostly clear. Low 51. Winds west-northwest light.
Sunday... Mostly sunny. High 74. Winds west 5-10 mph.
Sunday Night... Mostly clear. Low 53. Winds variable and light.
Monday... Partly cloudy. High 75. Winds east 5-10 mph.
Monday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 54. Winds east light.

Technical Discussion

Forecast Discussion (Tonight through Monday):
The risk of severe weather and the potential for heavy rainfall tonight and Friday are the main concerns for theis forecast period. Currently, Doppler radar indicates scattered showers near the Mobile area, with more extensive rain occurring to our north and west. Scattered showers are expected to continue into the evening hours. Rain chances will likely increase late tonight with continue overrunning moistening up the atmosphere, and a warm front approaches the area.

The 12z NAM is a little slower than the 12z GFS, and am leaning toward the slower solution at this time. The NAM ramps up the LLJ Friday morning with the strongest LLJ now indicated around 18z. The GFS is a little quicker, and shows the strongest LLJ sometime between 12-15z. The NAM also increases CAPE values to a peak around 18z. NAM graphics indicate SBCAPE possibly between 1000-1200 J/Kg. A look at a NAM (or ETA) forecasted sounding for the same time, however, indicates closer to 500 J/kg of "skinny CAPE" with a very saturated sounding. PWAT values will likely increase to in excess of 2 inches on Friday (the PWAT at LIX was already at 1.72" as of this morning's 12z sounding). Wind fields look fairly unidirectional on Friday, with quite a bit of speed shear but not much directional shear in place over the region. With this said, looks like damaging winds will be the main threat with any severe storms across the region. Isolated tornadoes are also possible, but with models indicating basically unidirectional shear, damaging winds appear to be more likely than tornadoes. Also, any storms could contain heavy rainfall and some training of storms may be possible, especially if the cold front slows down. Right now, we don't anticipate any widespread major flooding problems, but poor drainage and low-lying areas could have some flooding with the heavier thunderstorms. Rain chances look very good through Friday afternoon, and will go with categorical PoP's (80%) for these periods. Believe the models are a little too quick with fropa, and will go with a slightly slower fropa than what models indicate. Therefore, will hold on to higher rain chances than MOS members for Friday night, and will go a category or two above MOS guidance for minimum temps Friday night.

By Saturday, the front should have already passed, and we should have clearing skies. Temperatures will cool down some behind the front (especially low temps), but don't look as cool as what we dealt with earlier this week. CAA and subsidence should continue through Monday, with high pressure remaining in control of the weather for the weekend through the early part of next week.
ML

Hazardous Weather

Hazardous Weather Outlook (Thursday through Monday):
There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across the area late tonight and during the day on Friday as a storm system and associated cold front approach the area. The main risk with any severe storms will be damaging winds and possibly isolated tornadoes. Also, locally heavy rainfall can be expected with the heavier thunderstorms. Although widespread flooding is not expected, poor drainage and low-lying areas could experience flooding, especially if thunderstorms persist over the area for an extended period of time.

Beyond Friday, no hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Astronomical and Climatological Data

Moon Phase

Crescent Waxing
Sunset 6:09 PM
Sunrise 7:03 AM

10/26/06	Normal High	Record High	Normal Low	Record Low
Temperature	76°F	87°F (1936)	52°F	37°F (1990)
October	Normal	Wettest	Driest
Precipitation	3.25 in.	13.20 in. (1985)	0.00 in. (1874)

10/26 in Mobile Area Weather History

In 1937 an afternoon storm spawned an F2 tornado on the Mobile waterfront in Mobile County, AL. The tornado injured 3 as it tore through piers, shipping facilities, and businesses.

(Data compiled from NWS Mobile, NWS Birmingham, newspaper articles, USA Archives, US Hurricanes and HurricaneCity.com)

Wednesday Night Forecast

2006-10-25T17:28:00.000-05:00

Forecast issued by Randy Bowers on 10/25/06 at 5:20:56 pm CDT

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Tonight	Tomorrow	Friday	Saturday	Sunday

	74°F	77°F	71°F	75°F
55°F		63°F	55°F	50°F
SE 10-15 mph	SE 10-15 mph	S 10-20 mph	W 5-10 mph	NE 4-8 mph
30%	50%	60%	0%	0%

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Detailed Forecast

.Tonight... Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Low near 55. Southeast winds 5-10 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.
.Thursday...Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. High around 74. Southeast winds 10-15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
.Thursday Night... Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms becoming likely. Low near 63. South winds 10-20 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent.
.Friday...Showers and thunderstorms likely through early afternoon with a chance of showers during the late afternoon. Otherwise, mostly cloudy. High around 77. South wind around 15-25 mph, shifting to the northwest by mid-afternoon. Chance of rain 60 percent.
.Friday Night... Mostly cloudy during the evening. Decreasing clouds after midnight. Low around 55. Northwest wind at 5-10 mph.
.Saturday... Partly cloudy. High around 71. West wind at 5-10 mph.
Saturday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 50. Winds west 5-10 mph.
Sunday... Partly cloudy. High 75. Winds northeast 4-8 mph.
Sunday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 54. Winds northeast 2-4 mph.

Technical Discussion

Synopsis:
Sfc analysis showing sfc ridge extending from Great Lakes region Swrd to just east of KPNS. This places our area in SErly flow at the surface. Expecting SErly/Srly flow to increase throughout the next 24 hrs in response to lee cyclogenisis. Mid/upper feature responsible for this will shift Ewrd and bring pcpn Thur-Fri. Some timing differences among models resulting in a low-confidence forecast. GFS/ECMWF/SREF are all faster than NAM/NOGAPS/NGM. Overall, the models are in agreement in intensity and the overall patter, however. GFS' less amplified/less intense solution converges with the more amplified/more intense NAM solution after about 36-48 hrs.

In the short term, mid-level cloud deck limiting insolation and holding temperatures slightly below previously forecast values. Large scale weak isentropic lift has resulting in some very light pcpn across the area, which has thus far not been measurable. Believe this will continue through the rest of the evening. Forecast mstr profiles indicate a continued moistening of the column overnight and during the day tomorrow, partly due to Paul in the Ern Pacific. Will take this into account for cloud cover--continuing with >3/4 sky cover until fropa occurs on Friday. Model QPF fields not handling isentropic pcpn scenario well attm. Believe a slight adjustment upward of MOS for first and second period, both based on models' poor handling of ongoing QPF as previously mentioned, and WAA pcpn potential.

Best pcpn chance comes with fropa which is expected on Friday. Have decided to lean toward the NAM timing of mid/upper shortwave which would lead to a mid-day fropa on Friday. Question remains as to whether convective complex will form west of our area and reach us by early morning or whether main focus for pcpn will be with the actual fropa. For now, have went with likely PoPs Thur night and Friday to account for timing uncertainties and uncertainties in convective mode. Models do show at least some instability in pre-frontal warm sector Thur night/Friday. Despite abundant moisture, poor lapse rates yeild marginal CAPE values at best. Shear profiles would favor organized convection, with AOA 50 kt 0-6km shear present. 40-50 kt LLJ also progged by both GFS and NAM. Believe severe threat does exist. However, uncertainty in evolution of convection to our west limits confidence in severe threat attm. If better instability can be realized (given lack of widespread pre-frontal/WAA pcpn and clouds or MCS formation), severe potential would go up on Fri.

Post-fropa dry/stable air mass results in dry weekend. Zonal flow aloft to bring another shortward toward our area by the beginning of next week. Pior to that, near climo temps expected per MEX.

Hazardous Weather

Today through Friday
A storm system and associated cold front will approach the area Thursday night into Friday, resulting in an increased risk of showers and thunderstorms. There is a risk of strong to isolated severe thunderstorms with this system. The amount of instability is in question, but strong wind shear is expected across the region. The main risk with any severe storms would likely be damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. Please keep up to date with the latest forecasts concerning this weather system.

Saturday and Sunday
No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Astronomical and Climatological Data

Moon Phase

Crescent Waxing
Sunset 6:10 PM
Sunrise 7:02 AM

10/25/06	Normal High	Record High	Normal Low	Record Low
Temperature	77°F	88°F (1927)	53°F	38°F (1999)
October	Normal	Wettest	Driest
Precipitation	3.25 in.	13.20 in. (1985)	0.00 in. (1874)

10/25 in Mobile Area Weather History

In 1977 a morning storm produced a tornado that overturned a mobile home and damaged several other homes in the communities of Foley, Robertsdale, and Loxley in Baldwin County, AL.

Also, in 1997 a midday storm produced an F0 tornado near Greenville in Butler County, AL where it caused major damage to a metal garage and caused timber damage. That afternoon, another storm produced a tornado in the Howell community of George County, MS that moved into Mobile County, AL and damaged outbuildings and trees before dissipating near highway 98 west of Wilmer.

(Data compiled from NWS Mobile, NWS Birmingham, newspaper articles, USA Archives and HurricaneCity.com)

Wednesday Morning Forecast

2006-10-25T01:32:00.000-05:00

Forecast issued by Daniel Lamb on 10/25/06 at 1:26:44 am CDT

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Today	Thursday	Friday	Saturday	Sunday

70°F	74°F	75°F	71°F	75°F
	57°F	66°F	57°F	50°F
E 7-14 mph	SE 10-15 mph	SW 7-14 mph	N 5-10 mph	N 4-8 mph
0%	40%	50%	0%	0%

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Detailed Forecast

Today... Mostly cloudy. High around 70. Winds east 7-14 mph.
Tonight... Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Low around 57. Winds southeast 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent.
Thursday... Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. High around 74. Winds southeast 10-15 mph. Chance of rain is 40 percent.
Thursday Night... Showers and thunderstorms likely. Low around 66. Winds south 10-15 mph. Chance of rain is 60 percent.
Friday... A good chance showers and thunderstorms in the morning. Otherwise, mostly cloudy. High around 75. Winds southwest 7-14 mph, becoming northwest 10-20 mph. Chance of rain is 50 percent.
Friday Night... Partly cloudy. Low around 57. Winds west-northwest 7-14 mph.
Saturday... Mostly sunny. High around 71. Winds north 5-10 mph.
Saturday Night... Partly cloudy. Low around 50. Winds north 5-10 mph.
Sunday... Partly cloudy. High around 75. Winds north 4-8 mph.

Technical Discussion

Currently...
Surface high pressure axis extends from Hudson Bay through the Ohio River valley through the north central Gulf Coast. Skies are mostly clear but a few high clouds are streaming in from the west. Aloft, a ridge was analyzed over the middle CONUS with a new trough digging into the Pac NW. Our next weathermaker is still in its formative stages over the Southern Plains.

Forecast...
Global models are starting to into slightly better agreement on the evolution of our end-of-the-week system, though timing is becoming a question with the American model suite pushing cold front passage back. But, first things first. The weather system is just now organizing out west. It appears return flow will develop a warm front that will transverse the area tomorrow. Ahead of this, an overrunning-type scenario will send high clouds will ahead of the main system. These clouds are already moving across the Mississippi River. In fact, I'm gonna bump up sky cover and knock a couple degrees of the high in today's forecast because of them. There may actually be some scattered showers as early as tonight in this WAA pattern. With better model agreement, I feel confident enough to go a little lower on pops in that time frame, especially considering that timing is in question. The warm front will be north of us by Thursday, but the best deep-layer moisture return will be delayed until the evening hours. Nevertheless, there will certainly be a chance of rain anytime during the day. The better rain chances have been delayed until the Thurs night-Friday morning timeframe along the actual frontal passage. As with many recent systems, there will be impressive upper level dynamics (strong divergence at H5, H7-H85 winds on the order of 50-60 knots) but instability will be lacking. Latest SWODY2 has Mobile County in a slight risk for late in the period. It appears the main threat would be straight-line wind damage along a weakening squall line which would arrive in the predawn hours Friday morning. SWODY3 is not yet out as of this writing, however, I would venture a guess that there would be some concern with strong thunderstorms as well on Friday. More details on this can be better resolved in later forecasts. For now, will not mention severe in the detailed forecast. QPF values are around 2 inches. With FFG well above this, flooding (other than the typical heavy-shower urban nuisance stuff) shouldn't be an issue. With the system timing delay, I bumped 50 pops into the Friday period, mostly for the morning hours.

For once, we can say it looks like the entire weekend will be nice with surface high pressure building back into the area. The air mass behind this front won't be an incredible shock to the system. We may not even get into the 40s (except in the inland rural locations) behind this one. Basically, the going forecast had a terrific handle on temperatures and I didn't have to make any changes. I just made a few adjustments to the winds.

DL

Hazardous Weather

Today through Friday
A storm system and associated cold front will approach the area Thursday night into early Friday morning, resulting in an increased risk of showers and thunderstorms. There is a risk of strong to isolated severe thunderstorms with this system. The amount of instability is in question, but strong wind shear is expected across the region. The main risk with any severe storms would likely be damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. Please keep up to date with the latest forecasts concerning this weather system.

Saturday and Sunday
No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Astronomical and Climatological Data

Moon Phase

Crescent Waxing
Sunrise 7:01 AM
Sunset 6:10 PM

10/25/06	Normal High	Record High	Normal Low	Record Low
Temperature	77°F	88°F (1927)	53°F	38°F (1999)
October	Normal	Wettest	Driest
Precipitation	3.25 in.	13.20 in. (1985)	0.00 in. (1874)

10/25 in Mobile Area Weather History

In 1977 a morning storm produced a tornado that overturned a mobile home and damaged several other homes in the communities of Foley, Robertsdale, and Loxley in Baldwin County, AL.

(Data compiled from NWS Mobile, NWS Birmingham, newspaper articles, USA Archives and HurricaneCity.com)

Tuesday Evening Forecast

2006-10-24T15:17:00.000-05:00

Forecast issued by Michael Leach on 10/24/06 at 3:11:43 pm CDT

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Tonight	Tomorrow	Thursday	Friday	Saturday

	72°F	76°F	75°F	71°F
46°F		57°F	63°F	57°F
N 4-8 mph	E 5-10 mph	S 7-14 mph	W 10-15 mph	N 5-10 mph
0%	10%	50%	30%	0%

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Detailed Forecast

Tonight… Mostly clear. Low around 43. Winds north 4-8 mph.
Tomorrow... Partly cloudy. High around 73. Winds east 5-10 mph.
Wednesday Night... Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low near 47. Winds southeast 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 30 percent.
Thursday... Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. High around 75. Winds south 7-14 mph. Chance of rain is 50 percent.
Thursday Night... Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low near 60. Winds south 7-14 mph. Chance of rain is 50 percent.
Friday... Scattered showers and thunderstorms in the morning. Decreasing clouds in the afternoon. High around 78. Winds west 10-15 mph. Chance of rain is 30 percent.
Friday Night... Partly cloudy. Low around 57. Winds northwest 5-10 mph.
Saturday... Mostly sunny. High near 75. Winds north 5-10 mph.
Saturday Night... Clear. Low around 50. Winds north 4-8 mph.

Technical Discussion

Forecast Discussion (Tuesday through Saturday):
Another mostly clear, cool night can be expected tonight, but temperatures will likely be warmer than last night. MOS indicates wind speeds a little higher tonight, leading to more mixing in the atmosphere. By Wednesday evening, WAA should begin kicking in as 850 mb winds become southerly in direction and increase in speed. This will lead to more lifting across the area, and will include a chance of SHRA/TSRA beginning on Wednesday Night.

Thursday looks to be the most active day during the forecast period. A developing low pressure area across the southern Plains will move to the east-northeast on Wednesday, passing to the north of the area on Thursday. GFS indicates that the low will pass over the northern portions of the Tennessee Valley region, while the NAM shows the associated low a little farther north over the Ohio Valley. The NAM indicates a strong low level jet (possibly on the order of 50 kts.) passing over the area on Thursday, especially over the inland areas. The GFS is a little weaker with the LLJ, indicating speeds of 30-40 kts. Forecast model soundings also indicate quite a bit of wind shear on Thursday across the area. The question will be the amount of instability. A look at the NAM/WRF forecast for 72 hours (early Friday morning) shows around 1000 J/Kg of SBCAPE over the region. This value may be a little higher on Thursday afternoon and evening. With this said, there could be some strong to severe thunderstorms on Thursday. SWODY3 from the SPC includes our area in a slight risk of severe weather on Thursday. Will let later shifts go into more detail on the threat of severe weather. As far as PoP's go for Thursday, will go 50/50 for Thursday and Thursday night at this time. Feel that we will see likely PoP's at some point during this period, but disagreement between MOS members leads to a lower confidence forecast. MAV indicates likely PoP's only on Thursday night, while the MET indicates likely PoP's all periods Wednesday night through Thursday night. Believe the MET is a little too agressive with moisture return, and will lean closer to the MAV. Later shifts can fine-tune this PoP forecast.

Models tend to be trending a little slower with the fropa associated with this system. Because of this, I added a low-end chance PoP to Friday. Indicated that the best chance would probably be Friday morning, and indicated decreasing clouds by Friday afternoon. Saturday should be a nice day, with fropa behind us and CAA leading to subsidence across the area. Temperatures will cool down some after fropa, but don't look as cool as the temperatures we have been dealing with early this week.
ML

Hazardous Weather

Hazardous Weather Outlook (Tuesday through Saturday):
A storm system and associated cold front will approach the area on Thursday, resulting in an increased risk of showers and thunderstorms. There is a risk of strong to isolated severe thunderstorms with this system. The amount of instability is in question, but strong wind shear is expected across the region. The main risk with any severe storms would likely be damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. Please keep up to date with the latest forecasts concerning this weather system.

Astronomical and Climatological Data

Moon Phase

Crescent Waxing
Sunset 6:11 PM
Sunrise 7:01 AM

10/24/06	Normal High	Record High	Normal Low	Record Low
Temperature	77°F	89°F (1941)	53°F	37°F (1999)
October	Normal	Wettest	Driest
Precipitation	3.25 in.	13.20 in. (1985)	0.00 in. (1874)

Thursday Morning Forecast

2006-10-19T01:34:00.000-05:00

Forecast issued by Justin Gibbs on 10/19/06 at 1:29:38 am CDT

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Today	Friday	Saturday	Sunday	Monday

84°F	73°F	73°F	79°F	72°F
	60°F	56°F	63°F	60°F
SW 5-10 mph	N 5-10 mph	W 4-8 mph	S 5-10 mph	NW 10-15 mph
70%	0%	10%	40%	0%

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Detailed Forecast

Today... Partly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely, especially in the afternoon. High 84. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 70 percent.
Tonight... Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. Low 60. Winds west 10-15 mph. Chance of rain is 70 percent.
Friday... Mostly cloudy early then clearing by afternoon. High 73. Winds north 5-10 mph.
Friday Night... Mostly clear. Low 56. Winds north 4-8 mph.
Saturday... Partly cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms possible in the late afternoon. High 73. Winds west 4-8 mph. Chance of rain 10 percent.
Saturday Night... Partly cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms. Low 63. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent.
Sunday... Partly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. High 79. Winds south 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 40 percent.
Sunday Night... Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low 60. Winds northwest 7-14 mph. Chance of rain is 40 percent.
Monday... Mostly cloudy. High 72. Winds northwest 10-15 mph.

Technical Discussion

Synopsis:
05z Surface analysis reveals a coldfrontal boundary draped across eastern Arkansas and far northwestern Mississippi, attached to a developing sfc cyclone over the MO Bootheel. Aloft very weak divergence coupled with a weak remnant boundary produced somscattered SHRA this evening but that has since subsided. Pronounced 200/700mb trof axis exists is analyzed from 0z RAOBs from the four corners region to northern Minnesota. Phasing subtropical/polar jet streak indicated from NRN TX to NRN NY at 300mb.

Forecast Discussion (Thursday through Monday):
Short Term...

Storm system will progress eastward through the first two forecast periods. GFS/NAM is in relatively acceptable agreement regarding a 0-6z FROPA with the NAM leaning towards the latter. NGM/UKMET agree with the slower NAM while ECMWF tips its hat to the GFS. GFS is slightly weaker with the overall dynamics of the system but both seem reasonably analyzed so will for now go with a blend and assume a 4-5z FROPA. Thermodynamic profiles indicate a relatively unstable airmass will be in place as moisture return gets rolling during the day today with southwest winds at 5-15 mph pulling in rich gulf moisture (Buoys indicating Td's near 80). As previous shifts mentioned dynamic environment is not on par with what we saw Monday, however, speed shear and to some degree directional shear is still more than sufficient for organized thunderstorm development. The main threat today appears to be damaging winds and perhaps large hail. NAM/GFS forecast soundings point to about 15-20 degrees of low level turning with 0-3km SRH on the order of 150 m2/s2. This suggest the possibility of a few isolated tornadoes in the most vigorous updrafts but the storms will likely require some sort of additional boundary support to produce. More likely this will allow sufficient rotation of updrafts to allow for an enahnced hail production potential. Overall picture suggests the possibility of supercells at the onset of the episode likely coalescing into a squall line/MCS by nights end. Will go with 70/70 with afternoon/evening wording for the first two periods pop wise.

Friday guidance/current analysis indicates rather quick column drying behind the frontal boundary/trof axis so will continue the PoP free going forecast. Going forecast appears on track for winds/temp/cloud cover through Friday night. Only question regards how far south the frontal boundary will push once it becomes paralell to the mean flow, for now guidance seems rather convinced it will clear the area entirely for F/FN and this solution appears reasonable and shows good continuity.

Long Term...

Boundary becomes a little less well behaved as we enter the weekend. GFS is still a bit more agressive with moisture return on the backside of the sfc ridge to the east. Will reduce the going 20 pop to 10 pop, but the boundary is extremely close to the coast and moisture is still begining to work in with GFS indicating 850/700mb RHs going above 80% by 12z Sunday, so will taper the SN pop to 20% given the slower moisture return trend of the GFS (which is more in line with NGM. Reinforcing frontal boundary pushes through Sunday afternoon ahead of a powerful upper level low.

Sunday afternoon mean upper level flow becomes...and remains northwesterly and brisk. Strong northwesterly upper level flow will aide in providing a rather stark temperature contrast behind the boundary and push our temperatures to unseasonably cool levels for the start of the next work week. It should be noted MEX MOS has trended downward in each sucessive run for Tuesday mornings low now showing 48."

Hazardous Weather

Short Term (Today through Thursday)
Organized showers and thunderstorms are expected tonight as a cold front approaches from the northwest. There is a chance a few of these storms may become severe, with damaging winds the main threat. Large hail, and an isolated tornado cannot be completely ruled out with this system.

Long Term (Friday through Monday):
No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Astronomical and Climatological Data

Moon Phase

Crescent Waning
Sunrise 6:57 AM
Sunset 6:16 PM

10/19/06	Normal High	Record High	Normal Low	Record Low
Temperature	78°F	88°F (1949)	55°F	39°F (1948)
October	Normal	Wettest	Driest
Precipitation	3.25 in.	13.20 in. (1985)	0.00 in. (1874)

10/19 in Mobile Area Weather History

In 2004 an evening storm produced an F0 tornado near Owassa in Conecuh County, AL where it downed several trees.

(Data compiled from NWS Mobile, NWS Birmingham, newspaper articles, USA Archives and HurricaneCity.com)

Wednesday Night Forecast

2006-10-18T17:25:00.000-05:00

Forecast issued by Randy Bowers on 10/18/06 at 5:17:10 pm CDT

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Tonight	Tomorrow	Friday	Saturday	Sunday

	84°F	73°F	79°F	79°F
71°F		63°F	54°F	65°F
SE 4-8 mph	SW 5-10 mph	NW 5-10 mph	NE 4-8 mph	S 5-10 mph
40%	60%	0%	20%	30%

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Detailed Forecast

Tonight… Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low 71. Winds southeast 4-8 mph. Chance of rain is 40 percent.
Tomorrow... Mostly cloudy with rain and thunderstorms. High 84. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 60 percent.
Thursday Night... Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms in the evening. Then, decreasing cloudiness after midnight. Low 63. Winds west 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 50 percent.
Friday... Partly cloudy. High 73. Winds northwest 5-10 mph.
Friday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 54. Winds north 4-8 mph.
Saturday... Partly cloudy with isolated showers. High 79. Winds northeast 4-8 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent.
Saturday Night... Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low 65. Winds east 4-8 mph. Chance of rain is 30 percent.
Sunday... Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. High 79. Winds south 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 30 percent.
Sunday Night... Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low 57. Winds west 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 30 percent.

Technical Discussion

Synopsis:
Surface analysis indicates somewhat diffuse sfc boundary lifting northward across the region this afternoon. Sfc winds expected to veer to the south/southeast this evening/early tonight before further veering toward morning. SWrly, sfc flow will be dominate across the region tomorrow. In the mean time, WAA regime resulting in ongoing SHRA/TSRA just off-shore and further west across Louisiana. This activity seems to be focused along theta-e gradient which will continue to move Nwrd into the area overnight. Have placed a 40 PoP in overnight to account for this.

Forecast concerns center around shortwave now seen in WV over Rocky Mountain region. Models are similar with timing/intensity with Ewrd progression, though NAM is the strongest/slowest. GFS doesn't lag by much but is a little quicker, showing a fropa at or just after 00z. NAM, on the other hand, shows a little slower fropa, around or just before 06z. NGM sides with the NAM showing a slower fropa. Given this, am inclined to go with the NAM/NGM timing. However, previous forecaster suggested that GFS had a better handle overall as it initialized better. Will therefore split the difference in NAM and GFS with regard to timing.

Different setup than last so expect convective mode to be different. Last system brought convective showers which brought a tornado/enhanced wind threat given high-shear/low CAPE environment. Models indicate LLJ/H8-H9 winds to be about half as intense as with previous system--indicating roughly 30-40 kt LLJ tomorrow afternoon. Result is less ovrall shear, both directional and speed, with 0-6km speed shear certainly still favorable for organized convection. With that said, instability appears to be higher with this system per guidance--although still rather weak given poor mid-level lapse rates. All things considered, a severe threat will exist tomorrow afternoon/early tomorrow night, though with best mid-upper dynamics lagging behind sfc boundary, feel that severe threat will be marginal and limited to multi-cell and bow structures with primary threat of damaging winds. Adequate shear for mid-level rotation may enhance hail threat somewhat, especially in the most robust updrafts.

Post-fropa air mass much drier and cooler. Generally followed MOS for temperatures Fri-Sat. During that time, boundary becomes parallel to mean flow and stalls just off the coast. NAM and GFS both indicate a wave developing along this boundary and WAA regime expected again by late Saturday. For now, have add a small PoP Saturday to cover timing uncertainties. GFS is more aggressive with mstr return than NAM--showing QPF by late Saturday which NAM holds it off at least another 12 hours.

Hazardous Weather

Short Term (Today through Thursday)
The probability for thunderstorms will increase overnight tonight and especially tomorrow. The best chance of thunderstorms will come late tomorrow afternoon as a cold front approaches. Although widespread significant severe weather is not anticipated, a few marginally severe thunderstorms are possible. Damaging winds will be the primary severe weather threat.

Long Term (Friday through Sunday):
No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Astronomical and Climatological Data

Moon Phase

Crescent Waning
Sunset 6:17 PM
Sunrise 6:57 AM

10/18/06	Normal High	Record High	Normal Low	Record Low
Temperature	79°F	89°F (1972)	55°F	35°F (1948)
October	Normal	Wettest	Driest
Precipitation	3.25 in.	13.20 in. (1985)	0.00 in. (1874)

Wednesday Morning Forecast

2006-10-18T02:19:00.000-05:00

Forecast issued by Daniel Lamb on 10/18/06 at 2:07:59 am CDT

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Today	Thursday	Friday	Saturday	Sunday

86°F	84°F	74°F	78°F	79°F
	71°F	65°F	54°F	57°F
S 5-10 mph	SW 7-14 mph	N 5-10 mph	N 4-8 mph	NW 5-10 mph
20%	60%	0%	0%	30%

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Detailed Forecast

*** Dense Fog Advisory This Morning ***
Today... Patchy dense fog early. Otherwise, partly cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms. High around 86. Winds south 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent.
Tonight... Increasing clouds with isolated showers and thunderstorms. Low around 71. Winds south 4-8 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent.
Thursday... Mostly cloudy with rain and thunderstorms. Some storms could be severe. High around 84. Winds southwest 7-14 mph. Chance of rain is 60 percent.
Thursday Night... Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms in the evening. Then, decreasing cloudiness after midnight. Low around 65. Winds northwest 7-14 mph. Chance of rain is 50 percent.
Friday... Partly cloudy. High around 74. Winds north 5-10 mph.
Friday Night... Clear. Low around 54. Winds north 2-4 mph.
Saturday... Mostly sunny. High around 78. Winds north 4-8 mph.
Saturday Night... Partly cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms. Low around 57. Winds northwest 4-8 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent.
Sunday... Partly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. High around 79. Winds northwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 30 percent.

Technical Discussion

Short Term (through Thursday)...
Primary concerns in the short term center around approaching front on Thursday. Currently, the front is still back in Texas. Timing of frontal passage on Thursday appears to be in the evening hours. Precip may very well last into night period. Will include a 50 POP for the first part of the period, but indicate a decrease in rain chances in the detailed forecast. SPC has outlooked the area in slight on Day 2. It looks like instability will be marginal again, as it was on Monday; however, there may be a greater opportunity for insolation without a large shield of stratiform rain expected ahead of this system (or as least, as much as last system). On the other token, wind shear won't be as impressive as on Monday; though Monday was off the charts. Nevertheless, this is something we should keep an eye on. Later shifts will be able to provide better detail about timing and severity of storms on Thursday.

Long Term (Friday through Sunday)...
This front will bring down a fairly impressive airmass. MEX has a low of 49 on Saturday morning. Won't bite all the way, but will make significant downward adjustments to the going forecast, primarily on Friday. Will introduce chance PoPs with the Sunday forecast period as yet another front approaches the forecast area in this extremely progressive weather pattern. Again, didn't bite all the way on POPs (GFS advertising 60%) with the uncertainties regarding timing of this system and availability of sufficient moisture, instability, and dynamics.

DL

Hazardous Weather

Short Term (Today through Thursday)
Patchy dense fog will be possible this morning. If venturing out, be sure to allow plenty of time to reach your destination. Use your low-beam headlights, allow plenty of distance between yourself and the car in front of you, and slow down.

On Thursday, showers and thunderstorms are expected to affect the area. The Storm Prediction Center has outlooked the Mobile area for a slight risk of severe thunderstorms on Thursday. The primary threat with these storms will be damaging straight-line wind gusts; however, small hail and isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out. Be sure to keep abreast the latest information concerning this approaching weather event.

Long Term (Friday through Sunday):
No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Astronomical and Climatological Data

Moon Phase

Crescent Waning
Sunrise 6:56 AM
Sunset 6:17 PM

10/18/06	Normal High	Record High	Normal Low	Record Low
Temperature	79°F	89°F (1972)	55°F	35°F (1948)
October	Normal	Wettest	Driest
Precipitation	3.25 in.	13.20 in. (1985)	0.00 in. (1874)

Special Weather Update

2006-10-17T23:57:00.000-05:00

Dense Fog Advisory Overnight
The National Weather Service in Mobile has issued a Dense Fog Advisory for all of Southwest Alabama and parts of Southeast Mississippi and the Northwest Florida Panhandle. This advisory is valid until 9 AM Wednesday morning.

A Dense Fog Advisory means visibilities will frequently be reduced to less than one quarter mile. Several locations in the Mobile area are already reporting visibilities this low. These conditions are expected to persist overnight.

If driving overnight tonight or Wednesday morning, be sure to use extra caution. Allow plenty of distance between yourself and the car in front of you, slow down, and use your low-beam headlights.

DL

Special Weather Update

2006-10-17T02:15:00.000-05:00

...Powerful Storm System Continues To Impact Mobile Area...

The National Weather Service has issued a Tornado Watch through 9 a.m. Coastal Flood Warning until 7am Tuesday. A Flash Flood Watch Through Tuesday Afternoon...and a Wind Advisory through 1 am this morning for Mobile and Baldwin Counties.

At 2:15 am, weather radar indicated a complex of showers and thunderstorms moving eastward from southcentral Lousiana and Southern Mississippi. Additional showers are indicated ahead of the main complex across Mobile and Baldwin Counties.

Persistent moderate to heavy rainfall can be expected to begin in the Mobile area around the 4 a.m. hour with a stronger line of thunderstorms located near the rear of this complex, back closer to the main cold front, expected to move through between 6 and 9 a.m.

As this cluster moves through there is a possiblity for isolated tornadoes and damaging winds. There will also be a good possibility of street flooding, and possibily more significant flooding in the early morning hours across the Mobile metropolitan area, as 2-3 inches of rainfall may occur in areas which experience heavier thunderstorm activity. Morning commuters should prepare to deal with not only the possiblity of severe weather, but the strong possibility of travel difficulties due to excessive rainfall.

In coastal regions, strong southeast winds will continue to push astronomical high tides 2-4 feet above normal. Residents along coastal zones should prepare for abnormally high tides and areas of coastal flooding, possibly more pronounced than yesterdays episode.

Once this main thunderstorm complex clears in the mid morning hours, a few stray showers may persist before the main frontal system moves through around the noon hour. Winds should subside and shift to the west by midafternoon under clearing skies.

JG

Tuesday Morning Forecast

2006-10-17T02:13:00.000-05:00

Forecast issued by Justin Gibbs on 10/17/06 at 2:06:07 am CDT

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Today	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday

79°F	88°F	85°F	81°F	78°F
	69°F	70°F	63°F	60°F
S 10-20 mph	SW 5-10 mph	SW 10-15 mph	S 5-10 mph	SE 5-10 mph
100%	20%	40%	0%	0%

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Detailed Forecast

Today... Cloudy with rain and thunderstorms in the morning. Some storms may be severe with isolated tornadoes and damaging winds. Chance of rain is near 100 percent. Becoming partly cloudy by afternoon with a 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. High 79. Winds south 10-20 mph.
Tonight... Partly cloudy. Low 69. Winds west 4-8 mph.
Wednesday... Partly cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms. High 88. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent.
Wednesday Night... Partly cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms. Low 70. Winds south 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent.
Thursday... Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. High 85. Winds southwest 10-15 mph. Chance of rain is 40 percent.
Thursday Night... Mostly clear. Low 63. Winds west 2-4 mph.
Friday... Partly cloudy. High 81. Winds south 5-10 mph.
Friday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 60. Winds southeast 2-4 mph.
Saturday... Partly cloudy. High 78. Winds southeast 5-10 mph.

Technical Discussion

Synopsis:
Dynamically impressive severe weather episode continues this hour across the northcentral gulf coast region. Wind has shifted in the past few hours from east southeast around 7 pm...to a mostly southerly sfc flow at 15-20kts with higher gusts. KLIX/KMOB VWPs give us a better look at the flow just off the surface which also indicates a "more" unidirecitonal but still rather veered with height flow with about 40 degrees of turning from 925mb to the middle levels. Regional 88D network indicates healthy and so far sustaining MCS/Squall line with embedded bows and LEWPs. SPC has announced intentions to reissue TOA after the 7z expriation. 0-1km SRH values per RUC fcst soundings are still very impressive this morning between 450-650 m2/s2. Am also intrigued by what appears to be a slight increase in SB instability just ahead of the squall line where flow becomes more south/southwesterly perhaps entraining some slightly warmer low level air that saw more plentiful daytime heating before this afternoons rounds.

Forecast Discussion (Tuesday through Saturday):
Short Term...

Linear extrapolation puts this line knocking on our door in the 6 am hour. Guidance appears as one would expect with a forward propogating MCS to drag it about 12 hours too slow. Will increase 1st period pops to categorical for the AM hours and taper back to chc for the 12pm-6pm in case we get a slowing of the frontal boundary. Gambut of severe weather appears possible as the highly sheared MCS with embedded Bow/LEWP segments moves through. Will reup SWU for the severe weather threats. CFW/Wind advisory remains in through 12z as well. It appears the threat will diminish shortly after high tide once the frontal boundary moves through but gusty winds will remain until the main convection cluster moves through. GFS/NAM both agree on a 18z FROPA across the region and forecast guidance/current analysis indicate solid drying behind the front so will taper pops to lochc for the afternoon hours just in case we see some lingering precip just ahead of a slightly slowed frontal passage.

Long Term...
Will generally stick with going forecast beyond this point as it appears to be in good shape. Low level flow becomes southerly ahead of another storm system that will move in on Thursday. Will remain on track with the going 20 pops Wednesday Afternoon. The only trick to this fcst regards a shift in the frontal timing by the GFS...which now brings the front through late Wednesday/Early Thursday instead of the GFSs solution for bringing it through and stalling it on Thursday. 500mb picture shows a phasing jet stream around a building ridge over NRN GA/WRN TN as the main continental jet moves in Thursday. This would hint at a slightly faster frontal passage so will introduce for now 20% pops to the Wednesday night forecast to put us in a better position for updates down the road. Will also make a few tweaks to the wind forecast to hint at the possiblity of a faster frontal passage. Will keep the general forecast intact Thursday/Thursday night as I believe a Thu Night pop will remain prudent regardless of the final solution because it appears probable we will see some form of boundary stalling due to the relative projected weakness in deep layer flow as you get further south.

Hazardous Weather

Hazardous Weather Outlook (Tuesday through Saturday):
See The Special Weather Update product for information regarding todays hazardous weather threats. Beyond today no widespread hazardous weather is expected during the forecast period.

Astronomical and Climatological Data

Moon Phase

Crescent Waning
Sunrise 6:55 AM
Sunset 6:18 PM

10/17/06	Normal High	Record High	Normal Low	Record Low
Temperature	79°F	90°F (1972)	55°F	38°F (1991)
October	Normal	Wettest	Driest
Precipitation	3.25 in.	13.20 in. (1985)	0.00 in. (1874)

Special Weather Update

2006-10-16T10:53:00.000-05:00

...Severe Weather and Flooding Possible Today...
The National Weather Service has issued a Coastal Flood Warning until 7am Tuesday. A Flash Flood Watch Through Tuesday Afternoon...and a Wind Advisory through 1 am this morning for Mobile and Baldwin Counties.

A strong warm front is generating showers and thunderstorms this morning across much of the northcentral Gulf coast region. Some of these storms are producing heavy rainfall rates on the order of 1/2 to 1 inch per hour.

At 10:53 am, weather radar indicated the strongest activity was located over Mobile Bay with additional heavy showers across the northwestern portion of the city of Mobile and northwest rural Mobile county. Additional persistent moderate showers were indicated across nearly the entire metropolitan area and these will continue through the next few hours and likely persist off and on until the overnight hours. Some of these storms may be severe. Due to strong low level windfields aiding in thunderstorm rotation, isolated tornadoes will be the main threat. Mariners should be alert for the likelihood of numerous waterspouts throught the Gulf coastal waterways this afternoon.

In addition to the threat of severe weather the strong storm system is aiding to generate strong surface winds on the order of 20 to 30 mph. These windfields will likely increase as the warm front moves through. Non-thunderstorm winds occasionally gusting to 40 mph may become possible later this afternoon. This will aggravate an ongoing coastal flooding situation across lower Mobile and Baldwin counties and areas along the Mobile Bay. Several reports of coastal flooding have been recieved from the Dauphin Island area this morning. While high tides have passed for the day additional tidal piling of 2-3 feet above normal can be expected throughout the remainder of the day, and the flooding threat will persist to tomorrows high tides around 6 a.m.

JG

Friday Evening Forecast

2006-10-13T14:30:00.000-05:00

Forecast issued by Michael Leach on 10/13/06 at 2:27:10 pm CDT

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Tonight	Tomorrow	Sunday	Monday	Tuesday

	78°F	81°F	80°F	83°F
49°F		57°F	68°F	74°F
NNE 5-10 mph	E 5-10 mph	ESE 10-15 mph	S 10-15 mph	SW 7-14 mph
0%	0%	20%	60%	60%

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Detailed Forecast

Tonight… Decreasing clouds. Low 49. Winds north-northeast 5-10 mph.
Tomorrow... Mostly sunny. High 78. Winds east 5-10 mph.
Saturday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 57. Winds east 5-10 mph.
Sunday... Increasing clouds with isolated showers and thunderstorms. High 81. Winds east-southeast 10-15 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent.
Sunday Night... Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low 68. Winds east-southeast 10-15 mph. Chance of rain is 40 percent.
Monday... Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. High 80. Winds south 10-15 mph. Chance of rain is 60 percent.
Monday Night... Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low 74. Winds south 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 60 percent.
Tuesday... Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. High 83. Winds southwest 7-14 mph. Chance of rain is 60 percent.
Tuesday Night... Partly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low 71. Winds west-southwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 40 percent.

Technical Discussion

Synopsis:
Cooler air is flowing into the Mobile area behind a cold front. After some rain earlier today, skies are expected to clear late this afternoon, leading to a mostly clear night tonight. With the cloud cover and rain, temperatures have struggled to warm through the 50's this afternoon. 19z temp at KMOB was 62 degrees, with BKN skies still reported. A N to NE breeze averaging between 7 and 14 mph has made conditions outside feel even cooler.

Short Term (Friday through Sunday):
Main concerns for Friday and Saturday are temps. MOS guidance has cooled slightly from yesterday, and now indicates lows in the upper 40's to around 50 tonight. Will basically take a split of MAV and MET guidance, and call for a low of 49 tonight at KMOB. Saturday looks like a nice day, with continued CAA and subsidence occurring. Mostly sunny skies can be expected, with highs warming into the upper 70's with the abundant sunshine. By Sunday, surface winds and 850 mb winds are expected to begin coming out of the east-southeast, signaling a return to a WAA pattern over the area. With the increase in moisture, will indicate a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms by Sunday afternoon. By Sunday night, the GFS indicates a weak area of low pressure developing to the west over the Texas-Louisiana coast. The GFS is indicating a bullseye of precipitation around this low, possibly indicating a MCS developing. The WRF does indicate some moisture in this region, but is not as robust as the GFS. Will bring rain chances into the chance range for Sunday night.

Long Term (Monday through Tuesday):
The GFS and WRF differ in details with regard to early next week. The GFS continues to progress the MCS eastward, bringing it over our region on Monday. The NAM does not indicate the MCS, and holds back the deepest moisture until Monday night at the earliest. As a result of this, MEX guidance ramps up PoP's to around 90% on Monday. Going by WRF graphics, PoP's would likely be in the high chance or likely range. The GFS could possibly be suffering from convective feedback, and will not go as high on PoP's as the GFS. Have decided to go with 60% PoP for Monday and Monday night. If the GFS did verify, we could be looking at a heavy rainfall situation across the area. As far as thunderstorms go, the system does not look as good dynamically as it did a few days ago. Still, the GFS is indicating some rather strong winds (around 40 kts.) at 850 mb on Monday. The WRF indicates similar 850 mb winds, but farther to the west on Monday as it is slower than the GFS with the system. The GFS also indicates some slightly negative LI's. With this said, I would not be surprised to see some strong storms sometime in the Monday-Tuesday period, but severe weather looks iffy at this time. If the NAM were to verify, Tuesday would probably be wetter than Monday, and vice versa if the GFS verified. For this reason, decided to just go with 60% PoP's through Tuesday afternoon, tapering down to 40% Tuesday night. Temperatures should continue to warm throughout the period due to WAA. Earlier MEX guidance indicated highs around 90 on Tuesday, but has since cooled down. Will just indicate a gradual increase in temps through the period.
ML

Hazardous Weather

Short Term (Friday through Sunday):
No hazardous weather is expected.

Long Term (Monday through Tuesday):
Rain and thunderstorm chances will be on the increase during the early portion of next week as a storm system approaches the area. At this time, it appears that a few strong storms will be possible on Monday and Tuesday. Widespread severe weather is not expected at this time. Also, locally heavy rainfall will be possible. Since this system is still a few days away, forecasts are likely to change. Please stay tuned to a good forecast source as we head into the weekend.

Astronomical and Climatological Data

Moon Phase

Last
Sunset 6:23 PM
Sunrise 6:53 AM

10/13/06	Normal High	Record High	Normal Low	Record Low
Temperature	80°F	92°F (1963)	57°F	41°F (1977)
October	Normal	Wettest	Driest
Precipitation	3.25 in.	13.20 in. (1985)	0.00 in. (1874)

10/13 in Mobile Area Weather History

In 2001 an outbreak of 9 tornadoes affected the central Gulf Coast with 8 affecting Baldwin County, AL alone. Of the 9 tornadoes, 5 were rated F0, 1 was rated F1, 1 was rated F2, and 1 was an F3.

The F3 tornado hit south of the Grove Home Trailer Park in Baldwin County, AL and moved northeast, destroying 5 large cement block buildings, leveled a mobile home, damaging several other mobile homes, carried a large panel truck filled with heavy tools about 60 feet and tossed several other vehicles 15-25 feet and downed numerous trees in its path.

The F2 tornado hit southeast of Robertsdale in Baldwin County, AL where it destroyed 3 mobile homes, damaged 17 mobile homes and downed several large Pecan trees.

The F1 tornado hit near Fairhope in Baldwin County, AL where it caused major damage to a warehouse and downed several trees along with a fence.

Later, an F0 tornado moved ashore in Gulf Shores in Baldwin County, AL during a Shrimp Festival. The tornado damaged several booths and caused damage to some homes along 6th avenue.

Another F0 hit near Montrose in Baldwin County, AL and downed several trees.

Yet another F0 tornado hit near the Grove Home Trailer Park in Baldwin County, AL where it downed several trees and a large fence near the Park along CR 75.

The other F0 tornado hit near Spanish Fort in Baldwin County, AL where it formed near Meaher Park on the Causeway and jumped across the Causeway and struck the Pineda Island subdivision. The tornado damaged several trees.

(Data compiled from NWS Mobile, NWS Birmingham, newspaper articles, USA Archives, US Hurricanes and HurricaneCity.com)

Friday Evening Forecast

2006-10-06T13:25:00.000-05:00

Forecast issued by Michael Leach on 10/06/06 at 1:16:20 pm CDT

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Tonight	Tomorrow	Sunday	Monday	Tuesday

	81°F	82°F	83°F	84°F
57°F		55°F	59°F	63°F
N 4-8 mph	N 5-10 mph	NE 5-10 mph	ENE 5-10 mph	SE 5-10 mph
0%	0%	0%	0%	10%

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Detailed Forecast

Tonight… Mostly clear. Low 57. Winds north 4-8 mph.
Tomorrow... Sunny. High 81. Winds north 5-10 mph.
Saturday Night... Clear. Low 55. Winds northeast 4-8 mph.
Sunday... Sunny. High 82. Winds northeast 5-10 mph.
Sunday Night... Mostly clear. Low 59. Winds east-northeast 4-8 mph.
Monday... Mostly sunny. High 83. Winds east-northeast 5-10 mph.
Monday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 63. Winds east-northeast 4-8 mph.
Tuesday... Partly cloudy. High 84. Winds southeast 5-10 mph.
Tuesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 65. Winds south-southeast 4-8 mph.

Technical Discussion

Synopsis:
A dry cold front moved through the area this morning around 12z. Northerly winds have ushered in a cooler air mass across the area, with 19z temps running near 80 degrees, compared with upper 80's to around 90 degrees at the same time yesterday. A few clouds moved into the area in association with the front, but those have since cleared away leaving a sunny afternoon across the area. Wind speeds have averaged between 5 and 10 mph today, with a few higher gusts.

Short Term (Tonight through Sunday):
Dry northerly to northeasterly flow aloft and at the surface will continue across the area throughout the weekend. In the upper levels, the area will be caught between a developing upper level low to our northeast across the Carolinas, and a ridge shifting/building to our west. CAA will likely continue throughout the weekend, indicating subsidence will remain across the area. MOS guidance has continue to cool slightly for the weekend, and thus, this forecast is a touch cooler than the previous one. MET guidance was especially cool, indicating upper 70's for highs on both Saturday and Sunday. Did not go quite as low as MET guidance, and stayed relatively close to MAV guidance, indicating highs in the lower 80's and lows in the middle to upper 50's throughout the weekend.

Long Term (Monday through Tuesday):
CAA should weaken, and eventually WAA will take over during the long term period. Monday should be similar to Saturday and Sunday, but by Tuesday, winds will begin to shift to the Southeast and WAA will begin over the area. The result will be an increase in clouds, and possibily an isolated rain chance by Tuesday. Timing is still in question, so will introduce only a 'silent' 10 PoP at this time and indicate an increase in clouds. By Tuesday, temperatures should return to above seasonable normals. On Tuesday, the GFS indicates a rather amplified trough developing over the Midwest and Rocky Mountain states. This storm system, and associated stronger cold front, may affect the area by the middle or latter part of next week. This is beyond the range of this forecast, but it may be the next interesting weather system to affect our area.
ML

Hazardous Weather

Hazardous Weather Outlook (Friday through Tuesday):
No hazardous weather is expected through the forecast period.

Astronomical and Climatological Data

Moon Phase

Full Moon
Sunset 6:31 PM
Sunrise 6:49 AM

10/06/06	Normal High	Record High	Normal Low	Record Low
Temperature	82°F	93°F (1941)	61°F	43°F (1932)
October	Normal	Wettest	Driest
Precipitation	3.25 in.	13.20 in. (1985)	0.00 in. (1874)

10/06 in Mobile Area Weather History

In 1906 a morning storm produced an F2 tornado that leveled a home and downed numerous trees from Oak Grove to an area between Kushlin and Manville in Mobile County, AL.

(Data compiled from NWS Mobile, NWS Birmingham, newspaper articles, USA Archives and HurricaneCity.com)

Thursday Night Forecast

2006-10-05T13:47:00.000-05:00

Forecast issued by RF on 10/05/06 at 1:39:30 pm CDT

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Tonight	Tomorrow	Saturday	Sunday	Monday

	84°F	82°F	83°F	85°F
66°F		59°F	57°F	59°F
Var 4-8 mph	N 4-8 mph	Lgt NNE	Lgt N	Lgt ENE
0%	0%	0%	0%	0%

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Detailed Forecast

Tonight… Partly cloudy. Low 66. Winds variable 4-8 mph.
Tomorrow... Partly cloudy. High 84. Winds north 4-8 mph.
Friday Night... Mostly clear. Low 59. Winds north-northeast 4-8 mph.
Saturday... Mostly sunny. High 82. Winds north-northeast light NNE.
Saturday Night... Mostly clear. Low 57. Winds north 2-4 mph.
Sunday... Mostly sunny. High 83. Winds north light N.
Sunday Night... Mostly clear. Low 59. Winds light and variable.
Monday... Mostly sunny. High 85. Winds east-northeast light ENE.
Monday Night... Mostly clear. Low 60. Winds variable 2-4 mph.

Technical Discussion

Forecast Discussion (Thursday through Monday):
A dry cold front will approach the area from the north late tonight or early Friday. I mention dry cold front because we lack instability for any precip. So obviously we are going (0) zero POPs for the passage tonight. Behind the front we'll have some nice refreshing CAA with the N or NNE flow. The flow should remain in the MOB Area pretty much all weekend. A return flow should start up mid next week as high moves to the east. Temps look to hang around normal throughout the period.

Hazardous Weather

Hazardous Weather Outlook (Thursday through Monday):

Astronomical and Climatological Data

Moon Phase

Full Moon
Sunset 6:32 PM
Sunrise 6:48 AM

10/05/06	Normal High	Record High	Normal Low	Record Low
Temperature	82°F	93°F (1954)	61°F	45°F (1987)
October	Normal	Wettest	Driest
Precipitation	3.25 in.	13.20 in. (1985)	0.00 in. (1874)

Monday Morning Forecast

2006-10-02T00:07:00.000-05:00

Forecast issued by Michael Leach on 10/02/06 at 12:00:14 am CDT

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Today	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday

91°F	90°F	90°F	91°F	90°F
	69°F	68°F	68°F	69°F
NNE 4-8 mph	SE 5-10 mph	E 4-8 mph	ENE 5-10 mph	NE 5-10 mph
10%	0%	0%	0%	0%

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Detailed Forecast

Today... Partly cloudy. High 91. Winds north-northeast 4-8 mph.
Tonight... Mostly clear. Low 69. Light east winds.
Tuesday... Partly cloudy. High 90. Winds southeast 5-10 mph.
Tuesday Night... Mostly clear. Low 68. Light east-southeast winds.
Wednesday... Partly cloudy. High 90. Winds east 4-8 mph.
Wednesday Night... Mostly clear. Low 68. Light east winds.
Thursday... Mostly sunny. High 91. Winds east-northeast 5-10 mph.
Thursday Night... Mostly clear. Low 69. Light east-northeast winds.
Friday... Mostly sunny. High 90. Winds northeast 5-10 mph.

Technical Discussion

Synopsis:
At 02/00z, HPC analyzed a weak cold front across South-Central Alabama, extending eastward into the Atlantic Ocean and northward to an area of low pressure just off the New England coast. Looking at 04z surface plots, it is rather hard to find a front across Alabama. It seems to be mostly a dewpoint boundary extending from just south of AUO to near MGM in Alabama to just north of MEI in Mississippi. KMOB WSR-88D indicating a few showers arcoss Washington and Wilcox Counties at around midnight this Monday morning. These showers are weakening and dissipating as they move slowly to the south.

Forecast Discussion (Monday through Friday):
The weak cold front to our north should continue moving to the south through this morning. I will leave in a 'silent' 10% PoP for the morning hours today just in case a few showers try to sneak in here along the front. Dewpoints may drop slightly behind the front, but cooler temperatures are not expected. The front should stall along the coast, and eventually dissipate. High pressure will dominate the weather pattern through the upcoming week. Models are consistent in showing the area of high pressure centered around the Carolinas. The clockwise flow around the high pressure should provide us with easterly winds through most of the period. Models indicate a broad mid to upper level ridge remaining across the area through Friday. This should provide us with dry and warm weather throughout the upcoming work week.

The NAM/WRF does indicate some small weaknesses in the ridge through the early portions of the week. MET MOS guidance indicates PoP's climbing to around 20% on Wednesday. The GFS does not indicate any weaknesses in the ridge around us, and thus, MAV guidance keeps PoP's below 10%. Believe the only result with any weaknesses in the ridge or PVA in the area would be a slight increase in clouds. Therefore, I am comfortable with 0 PoP's throughout the forecast at this time.

Temperatures will continue to be above normal throughout the week. Leaned more toward MAV guidance as far as temperatures go. MET guidance indicates high temps on Wednesday only in the middle 80's, but I believe the MET's forecast of SCT to BKN clouds is too ambitious. Therefore, will lean toward the MAV guidance and indicate highs around 90 throughout the period. Both high and low temperatures should average between 6-8 degrees above average throughout the period. High temperatures will be close to record highs this week, although if forecasted values verify, temps each day will be a little below the records. (The records are: 95 today, 92 Tuesday, 94 Wednesday, and 93 Thursday and Friday).
ML

Hazardous Weather

Hazardous Weather Outlook (Monday through Friday):
No hazardous weather is expected through the forecast period.

Astronomical and Climatological Data

Moon Phase

Gibbous Waxing
Sunrise 6:46 AM
Sunset 6:36 PM

10/02/06	Normal High	Record High	Normal Low	Record Low
Temperature	83°F	95°F (1904)	62°F	43°F (1984)
October	Normal	Wettest	Driest
Precipitation	3.25 in.	13.20 in. (1985)	0.00 in. (1874)

Friday Evening Forecast

2006-09-29T13:50:00.000-05:00

Forecast issued by Michael Leach on 09/29/06 at 1:43:22 pm CDT

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Tonight	Tomorrow	Sunday	Monday	Tuesday

	84°F	87°F	87°F	86°F
51°F		62°F	67°F	67°F
Lgt & Var	S 4-8 mph	Var 4-8 mph	ESE 4-8 mph	E 5-10 mph
0%	0%	0%	0%	0%

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Detailed Forecast

Tonight… Clear and cool. Low 51. Winds light and variable.
Tomorrow... Sunny and warmer. High 84. Winds south 4-8 mph.
Saturday Night... Clear. Low 62. Winds light and variable.
Sunday... Mostly sunny. High 87. Winds variable 4-8 mph.
Sunday Night... Mostly clear. Low 67. Winds light and variable.
Monday... Mostly sunny. High 87. Winds east-southeast 4-8 mph.
Monday Night... Mostly clear. Low 67. Winds light and variable.
Tuesday... Mostly sunny. High 86. Winds east 5-10 mph.
Tuesday Night... Mostly clear. Low 66. Winds light and variable.

Technical Discussion

Synopsis:
A cold front has moved south of the Mobile area, ushering in cooler and drier air over the region. The front has pushed well south of the area, into the central Gulf of Mexico. A 1022 mb center of high pressure was analyzed over central Mississippi. CAA was ongoing over the region, with north to northwesterly winds both at the surface and at 850 mb. Early after temps were in the lower 70's, with dewpoints in the lower to middle 40's. Fall is definitely in the air (at least for today). 12z regional soundings indicate subsidence over the region, and backing winds indicative of CAA. PWAT values were well under 1" at both KLIX and KTLH. The NWS in Mobile has issued a Red Flag Warning for Mobile and Baldwin Counties, effective until 6 pm CDT this evening. Low relative humidities and gusty northerly winds could lead to conditions favoring the spread of wildfires.

Short Term (Tonight through Sunday):
The main concerns over the short term are temperatures. Under clear skies and light winds, tonight should be one of the coolest nights of the fall season so far (if not the coolest). Good radiational cooling should allow temperatures to fall rapidly after sunset. 12z MOS guidance is good agreement that lows tonight should bottom out in the lower 50's at KMOB. MAV indicates 50, while MET indicates 52. Will take a blend and call for a low of 51 tonight at KMOB. If that verifies, this will be the coolest reading of the season so far (we hit 54 this morning at KMOB, and also hit 54 a few days ago). With ample sunshine and winds shifting to a more southerly direction (slight WAA), Saturday should be warmer than today, with temps climbing into the mid 80's on Saturday. Saturday night should not be as cool as tonight, but lows will still fall to near average readings in the lower 60's. On Sunday, a weak cold front is expected to approach the area and move across the region Sunday afternoon or evening. With return flow not well-established and 500 mb ridge building across the region, not expecting any precip with this front. I toyed with the notion of adding a 'slight' 10 PoP for Sunday, but with no major lifting evident on model graphics, opted to leave a pop-free forecast for Sunday.

Long Term (Monday through Tuesday):
Not too much to discuss in the long term. Mid to upper level ridge should continue to build across the Southeastern United States Monday and Tuesday, with dry and warm temperatures expected. Highs should be in the mid to upper 80's, but would not be surprised to see a few spots touch 90 degrees. Overnight lows should also be above normal in the long term period The ridge should hang tough over the region through at least mid-week. Hopefully, this will be the last taste of summer for this year.
ML

Hazardous Weather

Hazardous Weather Outlook (Friday through Tuesday):
No hazardous weather is expected through the forecast period.

Astronomical and Climatological Data

Moon Phase

First
Sunset 6:40 PM
Sunrise 6:45 AM

09/29/06	Normal High	Record High	Normal Low	Record Low
Temperature	84°F	94°F (1904)	63°F	42°F (1967)
September	Normal	Wettest	Driest
Precipitation	6.01 in.	24.12 in. (1998)	0.47 in. (1923)

Wednesday Morning Forecast

2006-09-27T08:22:00.000-05:00

Forecast issued by Daniel Lamb on 09/27/06 at 8:16:20 am CDT

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Today	Thursday	Friday	Saturday	Sunday

85°F	85°F	79°F	82°F	86°F
	61°F	55°F	54°F	60°F
NW 4-8 mph	W 5-10 mph	N 4-8 mph	SE 5-10 mph	S 5-10 mph
0%	10%	0%	0%	0%

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Detailed Forecast

Today... Sunny. High around 85. Winds northwest 4-8 mph.
Tonight... Clear. Low around 61. Winds west light W.
Thursday... Partly cloudy. High around 85. Winds west 5-10 mph.
Thursday Night... Partly cloudy. Low around 55. Winds northwest 4-8 mph.
Friday... Mostly sunny. High around 79. Winds north 4-8 mph.
Friday Night... Clear. Low around 54. Winds northeast 2-4 mph.
Saturday... Mostly sunny. High around 82. Winds southeast 5-10 mph.
Saturday Night... Mostly clear. Low around 60. Winds south 2-4 mph.
Sunday... Partly cloudy. High around 86. Winds south 5-10 mph.

Technical Discussion

Currently...
A big blue 'H' continues to rule the roost over the Mobile area. But, yet another cold front is slipping southeastward through Midwest as we speak...type. In the upper levels, a longwave trough dominates the eastern half of the CONUS. At 12Z, temperatures were bottoming out in the mid 50s along the coast and in the lower 50s just a bit farther inland. Relatively speaking, the atmosphere is very, very dry. 12Z KLIX RAOB showed a significant capping inversion beginning around H9. Yes, fall is here.

Short Term...
Primary short term concern is the approaching cold front. Should be a fairly straight-forward forecast, though. With a very short window for return flow ahead of the front (and honestly, it may never open up entirely at all), column will be rather moisture-starved. As a result, this system would be best characterized as a reenforcing shot of cooler, drier air. Model consensus points to a Thursday evening frontal passage. Graphically, GFS is more bullish with QPF than WRF. But, the MET guidance actually shows a higher POP than the MAV. Of course, this may all be comparing apples and oranges since MET is still derived from the old NAM, while operational NAM is currently the WRF. Nevertheless, there are two notable deterrents to precipitation here - moisture (or lack thereof) and that cap (which is actually a result of the lack of moisture). Forecast soundings show us having a hard time reaching climatological PWAT values as the boundary approaches. Therefore, I'm a bit too skeptical to even mention precip in the detailed forecast. I will toss in a 10 POP for Thursday and Thursday night just to be prudent.

Long Term...
High pressure will build in behind Thursday's front. Friday is looking particularly outstanding. All MOS has been consistently indicating highs only getting into the upper 70s. Given this consistency, I have decided to bite the bullet and trend closer to guidance, but still a degree or two higher. The ridge axis will shift east of the area early Saturday and return flow will commence (it appears more earnestly this time) during the day. Another front will be approaching the area by late weekend, but for now, it appears it will be outside of this forecast's time period.

DL

Hazardous Weather

Hazardous Weather Outlook (Wednesday through Sunday):
No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Astronomical and Climatological Data

Moon Phase

Crescent Waxing
Sunrise 6:43 AM
Sunset 6:42 PM

09/27/06	Normal High	Record High	Normal Low	Record Low
Temperature	84°F	94°F (1954)	64°F	50°F (2001)
September	Normal	Wettest	Driest
Precipitation	6.01 in.	24.12 in. (1998)	0.47 in. (1923)

09/27 in Mobile Area Weather History

In 1906 a hurricane made landfall in extreme east coastal Mississippi with 115 mph winds. For nine hours the storm relentlessly pounded Mobile and Pensacola. The strength and duration of the storm forced the waters in Mobile Bay to move inland, inundating downtown Mobile and caused the most disastrous flood in Mobile history.

Also, in 1998 an afternoon storm produced a tornado near Loxley in Baldwin County, AL that damaged trees and power lines.

(Data compiled from NWS Mobile, NWS Birmingham, newspaper articles, USA Archives and HurricaneCity.com)

Friday Morning Forecast

2006-09-22T07:25:00.000-05:00

Forecast issued by Daniel Lamb on 09/22/06 at 7:21:14 am CDT

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Today	Saturday	Sunday	Monday	Tuesday

86°F	88°F	85°F	83°F	84°F
	74°F	74°F	68°F	63°F
S 10-15 mph	S 7-14 mph	SW 10-15 mph	N 7-14 mph	N 5-10 mph
60%	30%	50%	0%	0%

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Detailed Forecast

Today... Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. High around 86. Winds south 10-15 mph. Chance of rain is 60 percent.
Tonight... Partly cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms. Low around 74. Winds south 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent.
Saturday... Partly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. High around 88. Winds south 7-14 mph. Chance of rain is 30 percent.
Saturday Night... Partly cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms. Low around 74. Winds south 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent.
Sunday... Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. High around 85. Winds southwest 10-15 mph. Chance of rain is 50 percent.
Sunday Night... Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low around 68. Winds south 7-14 mph. Chance of rain is 50 percent.
Monday... Partly cloudy. High around 83. Winds north 7-14 mph.
Monday Night... Mostly clear. Low around 63. Winds north 4-8 mph.
Tuesday... Mostly sunny. High around 84. Winds north 5-10 mph.

Technical Discussion

Discussion...
Early morning surface analysis places the area in the warm sector of a still-organizing storm system over the Great Plains. An ill-defined boundary(warm front, of sorts) extends just north of the area, with breezy southerly winds continuing to advect more moisture into the region. Regional radar data shows several clusters of showers and thunderstorms moving northward across the area, with more coming out of the Gulf of Mexico. This activity is being focused along the afore mentioned bounday and is being aided by some weak isentropic upgliding over the area. In the upper levels, a large trough continues to deepen over the western 2/3rds of the CONUS, with slight ridging along the East coast.

Short Term (through Saturday night)...
Scattered activity should continue today in association with the features mentioned above. As they have been for several days now, the North American model suite continues to agree that this will continue to be a factor into the day today. I still went below MOS on POPs, as it appears to be suffering from some convective feedback issues. But, it seems only prudent to go at least 60 today with all of the ongoing activity pre-peak heating. Ironically, clouds from this morning activity could hinder later development. But, I don't think this will make a huge difference. We get a little break on Saturday. There should still be scattered activity around, but not as much, and it should be more diurnally-driven with the lack of any significant forcing in the area. The forecast I inherited handles all of this excellently, and I will be making only very minor changes to temps and winds.

Extended (Sunday through Tuesday)...
Sunday still appears to be frontal passage day, although the WRF has been pushing this back ever so slightly with each passing run. Now it has it happening around 6Z Monday. GFS still has it happening in the afternoon. Either way as it stands now, we should be pre-frontal during a favorable time of day for precipitation/convection. In fact, SPC has put us in slight in the latest SWODY3 product. The prime threat appears to be straight-line wind type activity in bowing line segments. Hail threat will be much lower this early in the fall/this far south. Big thing with this system is there should actually been some wind shear, which would allow these thunderstorms to keep developing and not do the typical pulse routine we see so often in these "parts". It is definitely something we'll keep a close eye on as the event gets closer. I'll let later shifts determine if this event is worthy of severe wording in the detailed forecast.

Monday and Tuesday should be a dry behind the front. The airmass will be similar to the one we were experiencing on Wednesday behind our last front.

DL

Hazardous Weather

Short Term (Friday through Saturday):
No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Long Term (Sunday through Tuesday):
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead of an approaching frontal boundary during the afternoon and evening hours on Sunday. A few of these storms could be severe with wind gusts in excess of 60 mph. In addition, typical thunderstorm threats such as very frequent cloud-to-ground lightning and minor flooding of local roadways will accompany the stronger storms. Persons in the Mobile area should keep abreast of the latest forecasts for late this weekend.

Astronomical and Climatological Data

Moon Phase

New Moon
Sunrise 6:40 AM
Sunset 6:48 PM

09/22/06	Normal High	Record High	Normal Low	Record Low
Temperature	86°F	98°F (1925)	66°F	47°F (1983)
September	Normal	Wettest	Driest
Precipitation	6.01 in.	24.12 in. (1998)	0.47 in. (1923)

09/22 in Mobile Area Weather History

In 2000 tropical storm Helene made landfall near Fort Walton Beach in Walton County, FL. The storm quickly weakened to a tropical depression as it moved inland.

Also, in 2002 a weak tornado was spotted in association with a squall line west of the Mobile Regional Airport in Mobile County, AL. The tornado downed several large tree limbs before weakening.

(Data compiled from NWS Mobile, NWS Birmingham, newspaper articles, USA Archives and HurricaneCity.com)

Thursday Evening Forecast

2006-09-21T14:22:00.000-05:00

Forecast issued by Michael Leach on 09/21/06 at 2:16:14 pm CDT

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Tonight	Tomorrow	Saturday	Sunday	Monday

	86°F	87°F	85°F	85°F
70°F		74°F	74°F	70°F
SE 5-10 mph	S 7-14 mph	S 7-14 mph	SW 7-14 mph	N 5-10 mph
20%	40%	30%	50%	10%

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Detailed Forecast

Tonight… Partly cloudy with isolated showers, mainly after midnight. Low 70. Winds southeast 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent.
Tomorrow... Partly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. High 86. Winds south 7-14 mph. Chance of rain is 40 percent.
Friday Night... Partly cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms. Low 74. Winds south 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent.
Saturday... Partly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. High 87. Winds south 7-14 mph. Chance of rain is 30 percent.
Saturday Night... Partly cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms. Low 74. Winds south 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent.
Sunday... Partly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. High 85. Winds southwest 7-14 mph. Chance of rain is 50 percent.
Sunday Night... Partly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low 70. Winds west 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 40 percent.
Monday... Partly cloudy. High 85. Winds north 5-10 mph.
Monday Night... Mostly clear. Low 64. Winds north 4-8 mph.

Technical Discussion

Synopsis:
Today has been another very pleasant day across the Mobile area. Dewpoints remain rather low (60 at KMOB at 12z), but are gradually rising as surface winds have shifted to the southeast. Also, a few clouds have begun to develop over the air as the air moistens. 17z RUC shows that WAA has started over the area at 850 mb. 12z regional soundings indicated signinifant subsidence starting around 900 mb, with PWAT values of under 1" (significantly below normal). With the WAA pattern and Gulf moisture returning, expect PWAT's to be significantly higher in future soundings.

Short Term (Tonight through Saturday):
Precip chances are the main challenge in the short term. WAA pattern will conitnue across the area tonight. With rising dewpoints and more cloud cover, overnight lows tonight will be much higher than last night. Models have dewpoints climbing into the upper 60's to lower 70's overnight. With some isentropic lift occurring across the area, expect a few showers to develop over the area toinght. Slight chance PoP's seem to cover this well. Models indicate development tonight initially over Gulf waters, with some activity spreading inland overnight. Friday, GFS and NAM both really increase precip chances with MOS guidance indicating PoP's of around 80%. I believe that the models are overdoing the precip chances for tomorrow. Looking at the upper levels of the atmosphere, I see no real indications of any significant lifting that would support PoP's that high. Both GFS and NAM show some very weak pertubations in the 500 mb flow which may be enough to lead to some lifting across the area on Friday. But any PVA looks to be weak. WAA advection looks to continue at 850 mb, with a LLJ between 20-30 kts. indicated on models. With all that said, going 40 PoP for Friday looks reasonable, and mainly for the afternoon hours with diurnal heating.

Saturday, with deep moisture remaining over the area, and with diurnal heating, expect scattered SHRA/TSRA to affect the area. Prefer the NAM on Saturday as it seems to have a better handle on QPF fields. Will keep 30 PoP for Saturday.

Long Term (Sunday through Monday):
Rain chances were increased to 50% for Sunday with the approach of an upper level trough and associated cold front. The NAM indicates more lifting than the GFS in association with the trough, and has higher QPF values across the area. In fact, with -15 omega values approaching the area Sunday afternoon on the NAM, the model is indicating a rather robust line of convection approaching the area. The GFS 500 mb pattern is not as amplified as the NAM, with much less lifting indicated. The GFS is also quicker with fropa than the NAM. If the GFS were to verify, the main chance of rain would be Sunday afternoon. If the NAM were to verify, the rain could hold off until Sunday evening. At this time, will indicate 50% PoP's for Sunday during the day, tapering off to 40% Sunday night. Future forecasters can fine-tune the PoP forecast. As far as any severe weather goes, the main risk of severe weather will likely be well to our north. However, if the NAM verifies, with a sharper trough moving through the region, would not be surprised to see a few strong thunderstorms. Will not mention this in the hazardous weather section at this time, but will continue to monitor.

Monday, if the models are correct the front should have cleared the region. However, I am more inclined to go with a slower fropa than models at this time as models often slow down the progression of fronts as the timeframe gets closer. I did not decrease clouds as quickly as the GFS indicates, and left a silent 10% PoP in the forecast for Monday, just in case the front moves through later than what models indicate at this time. By Monday night, expect mostly clear skies, with cooler overnight temperatures returning.
ML

Hazardous Weather

Hazardous Weather Outlook (Thursday through Monday):
No hazardous weather is expected through the forecast period.

Astronomical and Climatological Data

Moon Phase

New Moon
Sunset 6:50 PM
Sunrise 6:40 AM

09/21/06	Normal High	Record High	Normal Low	Record Low
Temperature	86°F	99°F (1925)	67°F	51°F (1918)
September	Normal	Wettest	Driest
Precipitation	6.01 in.	24.12 in. (1998)	0.47 in. (1923)

09/21 in Mobile Area Weather History

In 1926 a hurricane approached from the southeast and gradually weakened. However, newspaper reports indicate that the offshore winds were able to push the water out of Mobile Bay. While the storm had a history of producing winds over 100 mph offshore, the Mobile area experienced 60 mph winds as the storm moved northwest. The storm paralleled the Alabama coast before making landfall over the west Mississippi coastline.

(Data compiled from NWS Mobile, NWS Birmingham, newspaper articles, USA Archives and HurricaneCity.com)

Wednesday Morning Forecast

2006-09-20T01:35:00.000-05:00

Forecast issued by Daniel Lamb on 09/20/06 at 1:30:40 am CDT

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Today	Thursday	Friday	Saturday	Sunday

84°F	85°F	87°F	85°F	86°F
	58°F	68°F	72°F	73°F
N 7-14 mph	SE 7-14 mph	S 7-14 mph	S 5-10 mph	SW 10-15 mph
0%	0%	40%	30%	40%

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Detailed Forecast

Today... Sunny. High around 84. Winds north 7-14 mph.
Tonight... Clear. Low around 58. Winds northeast 2-4 mph.
Thursday... Mostly sunny. High around 85. Winds southeast 7-14 mph.
Thursday Night... Partly cloudy. Low around 68. Winds south 5-10 mph.
Friday... Partly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. High around 87. Winds south 7-14 mph. Chance of rain is 40 percent.
Friday Night... Partly cloudy. Low around 72. Winds south 4-8 mph.
Saturday... Partly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. High around 85. Winds south 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 30 percent.
Saturday Night... Partly cloudy. Low around 73. Winds south 5-10 mph.
Sunday... Partly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. High around 86. Winds southwest 10-15 mph. Chance of rain is 40 percent.

Technical Discussion

Discussion:
Taking a look at the latest surface analysis, cold (becoming quasi-stationary) frontal boundary has sagged south of buoy 42040 and east of AQQ into the Florida Big Bend. A broken line of convection is all that remains along this boundary. In its wake, high pressure centered over the Red River Valley region is building into the area. No post frontal cloudcover of note with mostly clear conditions prevailing across the area. WV imagery shows considerably drier air working into the area, and sounding data from LIX tells the tale with precipitable water values below 1" (they were above 2" ahead of this front). Temps range between 58 in Evergreen at 72 in Destin at 6Z.

Short Term (through Thursday night)...
Little in the way of sensible weather to speak about over the next 48 hours as offshore flow persists under surface high pressure. Upper level pattern continues to be highly amplified over the western CONUS. Trough over the east, which is forcing the front that just passed through the area is beginning to flatten out and flow is becoming a bit more zonal. The surface high will shift east toward the Mid-Atlantic. Decent model agreement exists that return flow ahead of the next organizing system will ensue over this area during the day Thursday. This lines up with the going forecast.

I will note that spotty fog could be a concern in some sheltered valleys this morning. Most areas in and around Mobile will have enough of a temp/dewpoint spread and breeze to avoid any fog. But Evergreen is already 59/57 with a calm wind and visib less than 10. I don't think this is enough of a concern this morning to mention in the detailed forecast.

Long Term (Friday through Sunday)...
Our next shot at rain appears to come on Friday. MOS advertises PoPs from around 50 to near 70 across the board, but this forecaster isn't ready to bite. There just aren't any real significant forcing mechanisms - at the surface or up above - that really stick out to me as something that should justify POPs that high this far out. I'll go up to 40, but that's it. I will cite weak isentropic ascent and daytime heating if I'm called to testify. The GFS is the more "excited" about rain of the American model suite toward the end of the forecast period. This synoptic setup is just not a favorable one for it to rain everywhere all weekend. I'll keep a 30 POP going through Saturday night. The next front will try to move through Sunday, so I'll introduce a 40 POP on Sunday for now. That may be a little "out there" will all of the timing uncertainties that loom, but this may be a justifiable forecast in this airmass during the daytime for the Gulf Coast anyhow.

It appears that temperatures will be fairly close to climo in the extended. With clouds expected to be around at irregular intervals, I won't get too cute with the temp forecast or make any major changes to the previous forecast.

DL

Hazardous Weather

Hazardous Weather Outlook (Wednesday through Sunday):
No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Astronomical and Climatological Data

Moon Phase

Crescent Waning
Sunrise 6:39 AM
Sunset 6:51 PM

09/20/06	Normal High	Record High	Normal Low	Record Low
Temperature	86°F	100°F (1925)	67°F	50°F (1981)
September	Normal	Wettest	Driest
Precipitation	6.01 in.	24.12 in. (1998)	0.47 in. (1923)

Tuesday Morning Forecast

2006-09-19T00:59:00.000-05:00

Forecast issued by Justin Gibbs on 09/19/06 at 12:53:01 am CDT

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Today	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday

84°F	83°F	85°F	86°F	84°F
	58°F	60°F	69°F	70°F
SW 5-10 mph	Lgt NW	S 5-10 mph	SE 5-10 mph	SW 5-10 mph
60%	0%	0%	30%	30%

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Detailed Forecast

Today... Variable cloudiness with showers and thunderstorms likely in the morning. Then clearing and cooler. High 84. Winds southwest 5-10 mph, shifting to the northwest at 5-10 mph by afternoon. Chance of rain is 60 percent.
Tonight... Mostly clear. Low 58. Winds northwest 5-10 mph.
Wednesday... Sunny. High 83. Winds Light northwest winds.
Wednesday Night... Clear. Low 60. Winds south 5-10 mph.
Thursday... Mostly sunny. High 85. Winds south 5-10 mph.
Thursday Night... Mostly clear. Low 69. Winds south 5-10 mph.
Friday... Partly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. High 86. Winds southeast 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 30 percent.
Friday Night... Partly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low 70. Winds south 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 30 percent.
Saturday... Partly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. High 84. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 30 percent.

Technical Discussion

Synopsis:
04z Surface Analysis lines up cold front along a line from KBTR to KTCL to KGAD. Upper air charts indicate a nearly vertically stacked closed low centered over NERN MN which is responsible for the sfc cyclone. 500/700mb RAOB data indicate a s/wv across western LA and SRN AR. KLIX/KTLH soundings show a very saturated air mass with minimal positive buoy area with SBCAPEs aoa 1500 j/kg. Upper air analysis shows slightly cooler air aloft closer to the main s/wv axis which combined with sfc convergence invof the frontal boundary is believed to be responsible for the latest flare up of +TSRA currently located acrdoss SRN MS/NRN LA.

Forecast Discussion (Tuesday through Saturday):
Short Term...

Main forecast challenge is handing of 1st period pops. Guidance is in firm agreement of a 12-14z FROPA. WV/Soundings indicate bone dry air behind the main frontal boundary so do not expect anything in the form of postfrontal precip. Given the saturated air above us and the nature of the development to our west there is a 70-80% chance of precip across the Mobile metro area with the system however linear extrapolation of the line brings it through around 4:30 a.m. So it is simply a matter of making a determination if the system will clear before or after 6 a.m. So will assume it may slow some and go with 60% morning pop wording. Will also stick with going high which is a touch below MOS but will allow for full FROPA+loss of about 3 hours of insolation+lower heighs associated with deep layer s/wv. Severe weather currently appears rather unlikely as a look at forecast/observed soundings show a very thin positive area on the sounding which will largely limit updraft acceleration (which is likely why storms over SRN MS are having a hard time producing dBZ values above 50 at ~20kft.) Additional daytime heating post 12z may allow for some stronger storms, but this line should be moving east of the area before much in the way of substantial heating is expected.

Tuesday evening puts us in a very dry postfrontal airmass with relatively light northwest winds. Weak ridging builds in at the sfc and aloft by tomorrow evening. Fcst soundings continue to show very low PWAT values with Tds down in the mid to upper 50s across the board as well. Going forecast sems to have a good handle on the next few periods as ridge builds at the sfc before being pushed eastward by our next feature expected to arrive Friday.

Long Term...

NAM/GFS/ECMWF both develop another strong upper level storm system which forms a sfc cyclone that pushes NE'wd across the central CONUS. As this low builds, our sfc winds will shift to the south and southeast. Will stick with going forecasts handling of doing this on Thursday. Thursday evening projects a rather substantial airmass modification as again our very dry airmass is loaded up with moisture as the dominant low/mid/upper level flow becomes southerly ahead of the appraoching trof. Frontal passage is a bit tricky as GFS/UKMET both appear to develop another southerly sfc low which slows things down rather substantially. GFS even appears to hint at the idea the boundary will nearly wash out altogether. This doesnt appear particuarly likely at the time given the strength of the upper level pattern so will not make any changes to the going package's handling of PoPs as a more conservative approach appears prudent with this system. ECMWF goes ahead with frontal passage during the early morning Saturday and that is the preferred solution for this package. Will introduce 30 POPs to the daypart Saturday.

Hazardous Weather

Hazardous Weather Outlook (Tuesday through Saturday):
A cold front will approach the area overnight and will result in a continued chance for showers and thunderstorms until it passes Tuesday morning. Because the atmosphere is so moist, thunderstorms that do occur will be capable of very heavy rainfall which could lead to brief flooding of streets in urban areas. Widespread flooding problems are not expected, however. Although strong thunderstorms may bring heavy rainfall and dangerous lightning, severe thunderstorms are not expected.

Astronomical and Climatological Data

Moon Phase

Crescent Waning
Sunrise 6:38 AM
Sunset 6:52 PM

09/19/06	Normal High	Record High	Normal Low	Record Low
Temperature	86°F	97°F (1925)	67°F	48°F (1981)
September	Normal	Wettest	Driest
Precipitation	6.01 in.	24.12 in. (1998)	0.47 in. (1923)

09/19 in Mobile Area Weather History

In 1998 an early afternoon storm produced a waterspout that moved inland near Gulf Shores in Baldwin County, AL. The tornado quickly weakened and no damage was found.

(Data compiled from NWS Mobile, NWS Birmingham, newspaper articles, USA Archives and HurricaneCity.com)

Monday Night Forecast

2006-09-18T18:29:00.000-05:00

Forecast issued by Randy Bowers on 09/18/06 at 6:22:35 pm CDT

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Tonight	Tomorrow	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday

	84°F	83°F	85°F	86°F
73°F		58°F	60°F	68°F
SW 4-8 mph	SW 5-10 mph	NW 5-10 mph	S 5-10 mph	S 5-10 mph
50%	50%	0%	0%	30%

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Detailed Forecast

Tonight… Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Areas of fog possible. Low 73. Winds southwest 4-8 mph. Chance of rain is 50 percent.
Tomorrow... Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning. Partial clearing during the afternoon. High 84. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 50 percent.
Tuesday Night... Clear. Low 58. Winds southwest 5-10 mph shifting to the nortwest by afternoon.
Wednesday... Sunny. High 83. Winds northwest 5-10 mph.
Wednesday Night... Clear. Low 60. Winds east 2-4 mph.
Thursday... Mostly sunny. High 85. Winds south 5-10 mph.
Thursday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 68. Winds south 4-8 mph.
Friday... Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. High 86. Winds south 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 30 percent.
Friday Night... Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low 69. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 30 percent.

Technical Discussion

More insolation than expected this morning through early afternoon allowed quick warming w/ KMOB verification point reaching 90F at 1856Z just before convective rains cooled ob site. Increased surface-based instability resulted in steeper low level lapse rates and higher MLCAPE values allowing for widespread diurnal convection. Convection ongoing across the area late this afternoon with heaviest concentration now east of Mobile. Surface boundary is lagging way behind best concentration of convection and was analyzed from northwest MS to just west of JAN to east-central TX. A weak sfc low has formed along this boundary just west of JAN. 88D composite showed weak convective elements near/along this boundary. However, stronger and more widespread convection was located well ahead of this boundary in association with pre-frontal wind shift/ongoing SQLN.

Plan to cut back on overnight PoPs rather substantially given current trends. NAM QPF seems overdone. Additionally, new 18z NAM slows fropa to about 15z. See little reason for high-end PoPs until closer to fropa timeframe. Even then, high-end PoPs may very well be unnecessary. Best divergence stays north and with meager instability /nocturnal cooling/ thinking high-change PoPs will suffice. Even high-chance would probably be a bit much but am not willing to gamble. Plan to carry high-chance PoPs through morning in anticipation of AOA 15z FROPA.

If gradient overnight is less than anticipated, fog formation will become a concern. Already winds at KMOB and points west /closer to the front/ are lower than guidance values prog. Feel that with widespread activity earlier resulting in soaked ground in many location that at least some patchy light fog will develop. Will go ahead and make mention of this.

Column dries substantially following FROPA with PWAT values below one inch late Tue through late-week. In fact, with sfc Td values dropping well into the 50s, expecting overnight lows to do so as well. MOS guidance has trended lower with Tds and cooler overall so will generally follow this trend. Mid/upper trough approaching NWrn CONUS attm will progress toward the central CONUS between now and Thursday. By the end of the week, this wave deamplifies and a second, stronger, wave evolves over the plains/Midwest and moves east. Still some timing concerns. However, GFS brings related sfc feature and associated QPF field to the area on Friday into Saturday. Will include low-chance PoPs for Friday--not going any higher until more consistency in timing is exhibited in medium range models.

Hazardous Weather

Hazardous Weather Outlook (Monday through Friday):
A cold front will approach the area overnight and will result in a continued chance for showers and thunderstorms until it passes Tuesday morning. Because the atmosphere is so moist, thunderstorms that do occur will be capable of very heavy rainfall which could lead to brief flooding of streets in urban areas. Widespread flooding problems are not expected, however. Although strong thunderstorms may bring heavy rainfall and dangerous lightning, severe thunderstorms are not expected.

Astronomical and Climatological Data

Moon Phase

Crescent Waning
Sunset 6:54 PM
Sunrise 6:38 AM

09/18/06	Normal High	Record High	Normal Low	Record Low
Temperature	86°F	96°F (1925)	67°F	54°F (1981)
September	Normal	Wettest	Driest
Precipitation	6.01 in.	24.12 in. (1998)	0.47 in. (1923)

Monday Morning Forecast

2006-09-18T00:07:00.000-05:00

Forecast issued by Michael Leach and Jason Holmes on 09/18/06 at 12:00:40 am CDT

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Today	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday

86°F	84°F	82°F	85°F	87°F
	72°F	59°F	61°F	68°F
SSW 7-14 mph	NW 7-14 mph	N 5-10 mph	SSE 5-10 mph	S 5-10 mph
80%	40%	0%	0%	30%

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Detailed Forecast

Today... Mostly cloudy with rain and thunderstorms. High 86. Winds south-southwest 7-14 mph. Chance of rain is 80 percent.
Tonight... Mostly cloudy with rain and thunderstorms. Low 72. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 70 percent.
Tuesday... A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the morning. Otherwise, partly cloudy. High 84. Winds northwest 7-14 mph. Chance of rain is 40 percent.
Tuesday Night... Mostly clear. Low 59. Winds north 5-10 mph.
Wednesday... Mostly sunny. High 82. Winds north 5-10 mph.
Wednesday Night... Mostly clear. Low 61. Winds east 4-8 mph.
Thursday... Partly cloudy. High 85. Winds south-southeast 5-10 mph.
Thursday Night... Partly cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms. Low 68. Winds south 4-8 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent.
Friday... Partly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. High 87. Winds south 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 30 percent.

Technical Discussion

Synopsis:
Currently, an area of high pressure is centered over North Carolina. The rotation around this high gave us a southerly wind on Sunday, bringing in higher moisture values across the area. Dewpoints climbed into the middle 70's across the region on Sunday, and continue to hold in the 70's early this Monday morning. The barometric pressure has continued to fall over the past 24 hours as the high pressure area has shifted off to our east, and a cold front is approaching the area from the northwest. 00z regional soundings indicate the WAA pattern across the area, with veering winds noted on the soundings. KLIX and KTLH soundings show PWAT values significantly higher than yesterday at this time (2.28" at KLIX and 2.13" at KTLH). Interpolated sounding for Mobile shows PWAT values of 2.27", CAPE of 1583 J/KG, and LI of -4.2. Also noted is the veering winds from just above the surface up to around 500 mb.

Short Term (Monday through Wednesday):
The main challenges in the short term involve rain chances and the potential for strong storms. A very moist airmass is expected to remain over the area until fropa. The NAM is indicating that PWAT values could approach 2.50" over the area Monday night. This could lead to some heavy rainfall amounts over the area Monday through Tuesday. As previous forecast alluded to, widespread flooding is not a concern at this time due to the progressive nature of the system, but some localized flooding could be possible with the heavier showers and thunderstorms. As far as the severe threat goes, it looks rather minimal at this time. With the expected cloud cover, significant destabilization is not expected. However, if we were to get some breaks in the cloud cover during the day tomorrow, the air may destabilize more than currently anticipated. Also, models do not predict too much instability over the area (although CAPE values from regional 00z soundings were a little higher than model initializations). NAM and GFS both show a LLJ of around 30 to maybe 35 kts. tomorrow through Tuesday morning. With that said, we may get a few strong wind gusts with storms, and a few gusts may approach severe limits in isolated storms. This will be mentioned in hazardous weather section.

The cold front is expected to move across the area on Tuesday. The GFS is a little quicker than the NAM with fropa. The GFS indicates fropa around 15z Tuesday morning, while the NAM indicates fropa closer to 18z on Tuesday. This is not a major difference between models, and expect the front to pass through sometime Tuesday morning or early afternoon. Therefore, will have PoP's on Tuesday mainly for the morning hours, with decreasing chances by the afternoon. Tuesday night looks rather cool at this time, with MOS guidance indicating lows in the upper 50's to around 60 degrees. Did not go quite as low at the MAV and MET guidance, and kept lows around 60 for Tuesday night. Wednesday looks to be a nice day, with CAA aloft, and surface high pressure ridging taking control of the weather. Sunny skies and highs in the lower 80's with dewpoints in the 50's can be expected on Wednesday. The MET guidance actually indicates highs staying in the upper 70's for Wednesday.

Long Term (Thursday through Friday):
Return flow from the Gulf is expected beginning on Thursday. Winds are expected to shift to the east, and eventually to the south on Thursday, bringing in more Gulf moisture to the region. Dewpoints will be on the increase on Thursday, and will likely climb back into the mid 60's. Still going with no PoP's on Thursday as only an increase in clouds is expected during the day. Kept the slight chance PoP for Thursday night as moisture becomes more entrenched over the area. Another trough and cold front will approach the area on Friday. The GFS is showing this trough and associated closed upper level low a little farther south than the current system we are dealing with. This trough also looks rather amplified on the GFS. At this time, will be conservative, and only go with 30% PoP on Friday. This may need to be increased in future forecasts. The rain chances will likely stick around through at least Saturday, until another cold front passes through the area.
ML/JH

Hazardous Weather

Short Term (Monday through Tuesday afternoon):
A strong cold front will approach the area from the northwest through Tuesday. Some of the thunderstorms may be strong with only isolated severe weather possible. The main threat from any severe storm would be damaging winds. Other storms may produce torrential rainfall that may cause localized flooding of low-lying or poor drainage areas along with gusty winds and frequent lightning strikes. The highest potential for strong to severe thunderstorms will primarily be from Monday afternoon through early Tuesday morning.
JH/ML

Long Term (Tuesday evening through Friday):
No hazardous weather is expected.
JH/ML

Astronomical and Climatological Data

Moon Phase

Crescent Waning
Sunrise 6:38 AM
Sunset 6:54 PM

09/18/06	Normal High	Record High	Normal Low	Record Low
Temperature	86°F	96°F (1925)	67°F	54°F (1981)
September	Normal	Wettest	Driest
Precipitation	6.01 in.	24.12 in. (1998)	0.47 in. (1923)

Sunday Night Forecast

2006-09-17T17:42:00.000-05:00

Forecast issued by Randy Bowers on 09/17/06 at 5:36:13 pm CDT

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Tonight	Tomorrow	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday

	85°F	84°F	84°F	86°F
73°F		71°F	60°F	62°F
S 5-10 mph	SW 5-10 mph	NW 5-10 mph	N 5-10 mph	S 5-10 mph
30%	80%	20%	0%	0%

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Detailed Forecast

Tonight… Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low 73. Winds south 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 30 percent.
Tomorrow... Partly cloudy with rain and thunderstorms, especially during the afternoon. High 85. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 80 percent.
Monday Night... Mostly cloudy with rain and thunderstorms. Low 71. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 80 percent.
Tuesday... A chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning. Otherwise partly cloudy. High 84. Winds northwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 50 percent.
Tuesday Night... Mostly clear. Low 60. Winds north 5-10 mph.
Wednesday... Mostly sunny. High 84. Winds north 5-10 mph.
Wednesday Night... Mostly clear. Low 62. Winds southeast 4-8 mph.
Thursday... Becoming partly cloudy. High 86. Winds south 5-10 mph.
Thursday Night... Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low 68. Winds south 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent.

Technical Discussion

.Current…
SHRA/TSRA has developed generally west of Mobile across Srn MS/Ern LA this afternoon. Extensive CU/TCU field present w/ sharp contrast from to clear skies arced northeast of a MEI to GZH line. SErly sfc flow and higher RH values from the sfc through at least H85 were present west of aforementioned line, with drier sfc-H85 layer east of the line.

.Summary…
A series of relatively intense mid/upper troughs will cross the CONUS over the next several days. The first will impact the forecast area starting tomorrow. Once it passes another stronger / more amplified/ trough takes shape over the plains bringing precipitation chances back to the end of the week. Active pattern appears to continue beyond the extended period.

.Short Term…
Broad diffluent upper flow pattern becomes established over a large portion of the Mississippi Valley ahead of plains trough. Stronger flow aloft remains north of the forecast area. Surface boundary approaches overnight Monday and crosses early Tuesday morning. There area some timing consistency issues, though not significant. NAM slowed up fropa in the 12z run but sped up slightly in the 18z run. Went with consistent with previous forecast and will keep highest PoPs confined to the Monday night period, tapering them off on Tuesday.

Deep moisture and widespread nature of precipitation may result in heavy rainfall. Not concerned with flooding attm because of progressive nature of this system. Severe threat seems marginal at best. Given widespread clouds, significant destabilization not expected. Poor lapse rates likely to limit overall instability. Additionally, sfc boundary looks to be displaced to the east of best shear. A few bow/LEWP structures could lead to severe/near severe gusts, but these events will be isolated. Have mentioned threat in HWO.

.Long Term…
High pressure ridge builds in following fropa on Tuesday. Clear/dry weather through midweek before sfc ridge shifts Ewrd and sfc flow quickly shifts to the south by Thur afternoon. Rapid return of moisture progged by Fri ahead of next system. This next system currently progged to be more intense than early week system with a much more amplified trough depicted on GFS. Will add small PoP for overnight Thur night period as system approaches but expecting more significant rain/thunderstorm threat into Friday/Saturday as system passes.

Hazardous Weather

Hazardous Weather Outlook (Sunday through Thursday):
An unseasonably intense storm system will impact the area Monday into early Tuesday morning. Thunderstorms and heavy rain will be common across the area tomorrow, especially late in the day. As the system passes through overnight Monday night or very early Tuesday morning, the threat for heavy rain and thunderstorms will continue. The threat for severe thunderstorms with this system is not particularly high. However, isolated marginally severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. The primary threat will be isolated instances of damaging winds. The most likely time for severe weather will be between 9 p.m. Monday evening and 9 a.m. Tuesday morning. The areas which experience heavy rainfall may see minor flooding of flood-prone areas. However, widespread flooding problems are not expected.

Astronomical and Climatological Data

Moon Phase

Crescent Waning
Sunset 6:55 PM
Sunrise 6:38 AM

09/17/06	Normal High	Record High	Normal Low	Record Low
Temperature	87°F	100°F (1927)	68°F	57°F (1961)
September	Normal	Wettest	Driest
Precipitation	6.01 in.	24.12 in. (1998)	0.47 in. (1923)

Saturday Morning Forecast

2006-09-16T02:06:00.000-05:00

Forecast issued by Justin Gibbs on 09/16/06 at 2:00:35 am CDT

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Today	Sunday	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday

91°F	90°F	88°F	85°F	84°F
	67°F	69°F	67°F	66°F
Var 4-8 mph	SE 4-8 mph	S 10-15 mph	WSW 5-10 mph	Lgt & Var
0%	30%	60%	50%	10%

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Detailed Forecast

Today... Mostly sunny. High 91. Winds variable 4-8 mph.
Tonight... Mostly clear. Low 67. Winds southeast 2-4 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent.
Sunday... Increasing clouds with scattered showers and thunderstorms. High 90. Winds southeast 4-8 mph. Chance of rain is 30 percent.
Sunday Night... Mostly cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms. Low 69. Winds southeast 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent.
Monday... Partly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. High 88. Winds south 10-15 mph. Chance of rain is 60 percent.
Monday Night... Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. Low 67. Winds south 10-15 mph. Chance of rain is 60 percent.
Tuesday... Mostly sunny with scattered showers and thunderstorms. High 85. Winds west-southwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 50 percent.
Tuesday Night... Mostly clear. Low 66. Winds west-northwest 5-10 mph.
Wednesday... Mostly sunny. High 84. Winds light and variable.

Technical Discussion

Synopsis:
05z Surface analysis reveals a very weak ridge has built in just to our west roughly centered from KMCB/KMEI/KGTR. The influence of this ridge has calmed our winds at most stations across the area. Very dry airmass remains in place as evidenced by WV imagery and KLIX/KTLH soundings which show PWATs at 1.5 and 1.4 with strong subsidence evident from both soundings. That has led to a nearly classic environment for the radiational cooling that is occuring tonight. Aloft as would be expected analysis reveals strong ridging with the axis at 3/500mb roughly located from MSY to ORD.

Downstream, however, tells a much different story as a powerful upper level low sits over the NW CONUS which has led to rapid sfc cyclogenesis over the central CONUS tonight. 850/700mb analysis indicates the airmass over the central US is being rapidly modified as the sphere of the cyclones influence increases...with SE'ly winds being reported this morning as far east as Memphis, TN.

" "Forecast Discussion (Saturday through Wednesday):
Short Term...

Saturday is appears for now the ridging at the sfc and aloft will remain in control of the weather pattern. Little overall change from what we saw today is expected at this time with GFS/NAM forecast soundings both showing little modification of the airmass and moisture fields present. However, the column depth will be slightly greater as the upper level ridge axis moves overhead so will bump the high up 1 degree to come in line with latest MOS, which is 1 degree above Friday's high and appears rather appropriate.

Saturday evening should be similar to Friday evening except we will then begin to see the slow transition to the more active pattern as the winds likely will begin to pick up from the southeast in advance of the sfc cyclone overnight Saturday.

By Sunday GFS/NAM both project the upper level storm system will have opened and given way to a secondary shortwave which will amplify and push eastward. GFS/NAM are also in excellent agreement developing a secondary 300/500mb jet streak south of the main trof which then phases late Sunday and early Monday over the Mid MS VLY. This phasing will enhance divergence tremendously in the area and the placement of the vort max along the main longwave trof, and it appears appropriate for secondary sfc cyclogenesis late Sunday/early Monday over the MD MS VLY. NAM appears to catch onto this solution and is the preferred model for now regarding the details of this particular event.

Airmass undergoes substantial changes during the day Sunday so will be bumping up cloud cloud cover which previous forecaster has already done. Wind forecast also looks to be in good shape for now as well. However, it may need to be tweaked upward slightly especially if we see this secondary low develop across the Mid MS VLY. Will bump pops to 30% as a few perturbations are hinted at in the mean flow aloft as we start to destabilize our airmass as the flow becomes nearly entirely southerly in the low levels as the shortwave trof approaches.

Sunday evening will also go with 20% pops as we will remain a bit too far away from the main forcing to see much in the way of non-seabreeze forced daytime convection.

Long Term...
Monday things get a bit murky. NAM is the preferred model here as GFS begins to suffer from convective feedback and develops a sfc low over ERN TX which then plays a bit of havoc with the timing regarding the rest of the features. NAM however continues to develop the mid ms vly sfc low, warmfrontogenesis associated with the sfc low occurs across WRN FL/SRN AL Monday afternoon/evening. The airmass undergoes substantial modification as the shortwave appraoches and becomes rather unstable with SBCAPEs indicated around 2000 j/kg with deep layer shear increasing. NAM is a touch further south again tonight with the main upper level energy which increases deep layer shear as the convection gets underway.

If this solution were to verify a rather convectively active period can be expected invof the warm front during the afternoon and evening hours Monday, with severe weather well within the realm of possibility, especially if we see a verification of the GFSs suggestion of the LLJ increasing to 50-60kts as the gradient between the trof and a ridge building to the SE verifies. However, for now we still prefer the slightly more conservative NAM which puts it invof 30-35kts. The main questions regard the assumptions made in this forecast regarding the sfc cyclogenesis and the NAMs general handling of the fine scale features needed to produce such an event. Will however bump the Monday/Monday night period to 60 pops.

Tuesday is a bit tricky with ECMWF dragging the frontal system behind til about 18z Tuesday with the NAM having us nearly completely cleared out by about 12z. Will for now go with 50% pops assuming we see a slight slowing of the system which is essentially a coin flip regarding the number of available permutations this system may take. More things will slow this system down (deeper UL trof, deeper sfc cyclogenesis, or perhaps weaker than fcst low level windfields) than would speed it up (stronger ridging behind the trof) so will go with that solution on a split difference of ECMWF/NAM.

ECMWF is preferred solution for extended due to the substantial impacts of convective feedback from the GFS. MEX MOS temps however appear relatively reasonable for Wed so will go with that general idea as a first guess on post FROPA airmass. Synoptically ECMWF clears us out nicely. as ridging behind the frontal system builds in and our upper level flow becomes rather swift...but zonal.

Hazardous Weather

Hazardous Weather Outlook (Saturday through Wednesday):
Organized showers and thunderstorms are likely during the afternoon and overnight hours Monday and early Tuesday as a powerful storm system and cold front moves through the area. There are some questions regarding this system but it appears at this time there is a chance that some of these storms may be severe with isolated tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail being the main threats.
Continue to monitor later forecasts for updates regarding this storm system.

Astronomical and Climatological Data

Moon Phase

Last
Sunrise 6:37 AM
Sunset 6:56 PM

09/16/06	Normal High	Record High	Normal Low	Record Low
Temperature	87°F	101°F (1927)	68°F	55°F (1961)
September	Normal	Wettest	Driest
Precipitation	6.01 in.	24.12 in. (1998)	0.47 in. (1923)

09/16 in Mobile Area Weather History

In 1971 afternoon storms spawned two F2 tornadoes, the first tornado hit south of Stockton in Baldwin County, AL where it demolished at least 2 mobile homes, destroyed a few barns, and damaged at least 10 homes. The second F2 tornado hit east of Fairhope in Baldwin County, AL where it tore apart 2 homes and damaged several other houses. That evening, a storm spawned a tornado near Tibbie in Washington County, AL that destroyed several small buildings. The tornado severely damaged a house and several large chicken houses and downed numerous trees.

Also, in 2004 hurricane Ivan spun ashore near Orange Beach in Baldwin County, AL. The storm contained sustained winds over 100 mph at landfall and caused extensive damage from the surge along the coast of Alabama and Florida. Widespread wind damage resulted as it traveled inland towards central Alabama.

(Data compiled from NWS Mobile, NWS Birmingham, newspaper articles, USA Archives and HurricaneCity.com)