Short Term Update

The National Weather Service has issued a Tornado Watch effective until 9 p.m. for the Mobile metropolitan area, and adjacent coastal waters, including Mobile Bay.

A large complex of strong to severe thunderstorms currently located over Central Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana will push southeastward through the evening. As the system moves south it will interact with a very warm, moist, and unstable airmass. Severe thunderstorms will be possible this evening with isolated tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail the main threat. Waterspouts and wind gusts over 50kts will be possible on coastal waters near the Mobile area.

The best chance for severe weather will be tonight from roughly 7:30 p.m. through 11 p.m. Residents in the watch area should remain alert to rapidly changing weather conditions and be prepared to take action should severe weather be observed or warnings be issued.

Special Weather Update

Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Mobile County until 6:15 PM
The National Weather Service in Mobile has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Mobile County effective until 6:15 pm. At 5:35 pm, doppler radar indicated a severe thunderstorm near Gulfcrest, or 3 miles south of Citronelle, drifting east.

Locations in the path of this storm include: Gulfcrest, Citronelle, and Mount Vernon.

Hail to the size of golf balls has been reported with this storm. In addition, wind gusts around 60 miles per hour will be possible. If you're in the path of this storm, take cover now in an interior room of a sturdy structure until the storm passes.

Special Weather Update

Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Baldwin County until 1:15 PM
The National Weather Service in Mobile has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Baldwin County effective until 1:15 pm. At 12:35pm, doppler radar indicated a severe thunderstorm over Mobile Bay just west of Fairhope, or five miles southwest of Daphne, moving southeast at 15 miles per hour.

Locations in the path of this storm include: Daphne, Montrose, Fairhope, Point Clear, and Foley.

Hail to the size of nickels and winds gusts near 60 miles per hour are possible with this storm. Seek shelter in a sturdy structure if you are in the path and stay away from windows.

Hazardous Weather Discussion

Today through Saturday:
Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will be possible over the next several days in the Mobile area. A few of the storms could become strong, producing small hail and gusty winds. On Saturday, a few storms could become severe with large hail and damaging winds. The Storm Prediction Center has outlooked the area for a slight risk of severe thunderstorms. Please check later forecast for the most up-to-date information and stay tuned to local news media and NOAA Weather Radio in the event watches or warnings are required.

Routine Forecasts End For the Summer

Mobile Area Weather will cease routine forecasting operations for approximately the next four months as we break away from school during summer break. We will resume daily forecasts when we reconvene in August. In the meantime, visit the National Weather Service in Mobile's website for the latest forecast information: www.srh.noaa.gov/mob

While we will not be doing routine forecasts, we will post severe and tropical weather updates as conditions warrant.

Thanks for visiting Mobile Area Weather.

Tuesday Night Forecast

Forecast Issued by Robert Frye on 05/02/2006 at 3:38:42 pm CT

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Tonight	Tomorrow	Thursday	Friday	Saturday
	86°F	87°F	85°F	85°F
63°F		65°F	66°F	66°F
S 5-10 mph	S 5-10 mph	SW 5-10 mph	S 3-6 mph	S 5-10 mph
0%	0%	0%	20%	50%

Detailed Forecast

Tonight… Periods of fog. Low 63. Winds south 5-10 mph. Tomorrow... Partly cloudy. High 86. Winds south 5-10 mph. Wednesday Night... Periods of fog. Low 65. Winds south 3-6 mph. Thursday... Partly cloudy. High 87. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Thursday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 66. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Friday... Chance of thunderstorms. High 85. Winds south 3-6 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Friday Night... Scattered thunderstorms. Low 66. Winds south 3-6 mph. Chance of rain is 40 percent. Saturday... Scattered thunderstorms. High 85. Winds south 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 50 percent. Saturday Night... Scattered thunderstorms. Low 65. Winds south 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 40 percent.

Technical Discussion

Short Term (Tuesday through Thursday): Patchy advection fog will move in later tonight. In some places the fog may be more dense than others. Use extreme caution over the "Bayway" later tonight and early tomorrow. A nice return flow has set up. Temps will warm into the mid to upper 80's during the time frame. POPs will be fairly slim even though a front will position itself north of the MOB area later in the time frame. Long Term (Friday through Saturday): Due to the proximity of the front went ahead and added slight POPs for the time period. Think the rain and storms will hold off until later Fri Night into Saturday. NAM suggests the front will stall to our north and the GFS suggests the front will move a little further south. We'll go with a blend of both models and add POPs and Thunder in the package. As for temps went fairly close to MOS guidance.

Hazardous Weather

No hazardous weather is expected through the forecast period.

Astronomical and Climatological Data
Mobile, Alabama Sunset 7:32 PM Sunrise 6:07 AM	05/03/06 Normal High Record High Normal Low Record Low Temperature 81°F 91°F (1943) 58°F 47°F (2004) May Normal Wettest Driest Precipitation 6.10 in. 15.08 in. (1980) 0.22 in. (1914)

Monday Forecast

Forecast Issued by Randy Bowers on 05/01/2006 at 12:05:17 am CT

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Today	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday
83°F	85°F	86°F	86°F	84°F
	62°F	63°F	65°F	66°F
SE 5-10 mph	S 5 mph	SW 5-10 mph	SW 5-10 mph	SW 10-15 mph
0%	0%	20%	20%	50%

Detailed Forecast

Today... Partly cloudy. High around 83. Winds southeast 5-10 mph. Monday Night... Partly cloudy. Low around 62. Winds southeast at around 5 mph. Tuesday... Partly cloudy. High around 85. Winds south at around 5 mph. Tuesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low arond 63. Light south wind. Wednesday... Partly cloudy with isolated showers. High around 86. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Wednesday Night... Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Low around 65. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Thursday... Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Otherwise, partly cloudy. High around 86. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Thursday Night... A chance of thunderstorms. Otherwise, mostly cloudy. Low around 66. Winds southwest 10-15 mph. Chance of rain is 40 percent. Friday... A good chance of thunderstorms. Otherwise, mostly cloudy. High around 84. Winds southwest 10-15 mph. Chance of rain is 50 percent.

Technical Discussion

All but a few showers have exited Mobile and Baldwin Counties. Remaining showers were over northeast Baldwin and near Spanish Fort, with a few also just offshore from Orange Beach. Upper trough weakens and shift further northeast tomorrow with less amplified upper pattern becoming established in the short term. Meanwhile ridge at H85 builds stronger and dominates into mid-week. This will result in a rather uneventful week weather-wise for the forecast area. The next system of significance to impact the forecast area will be later in the week as a shortwave strengthens over the plains. 00z GFS is quite different than the 12z run, showing a much more amplified system. Going forecast has a slight PoP for Wednesday and will continue with this as ridge begins to break down by that time. Will also carry slight PoP into Thursday as ridge continues breaks down with the approach of plains system. Beginning on Friday, have introduced chance PoPs with the passage of this system expected late Friday into Saturday. Only changes to the going forecast are to increase temperatures slightly in the extended to address warmer MOS numbers and slight adjustments to wind forecast. No other changes needed.

Hazardous Weather

No hazardous weather is expected through the forecast period.

Astronomical and Climatological Data
Mobile, Alabama Sunrise 6:09 AM Sunset 7:31 PM	05/01/06 Normal High Record High Normal Low Record Low Temperature 81°F 91°F (1987) 58°F 46°F (1999) May Normal Wettest Driest Precipitation 6.10 in. 15.08 in. (1980) 0.22 in. (1914)