Short Term Update (Issued at 8:38 PM CDT)

At 8:30 pm, radar showed that the showers had exited most of Mobile County with the exception of the Saraland area. Saraland, Satsuma, Chickasaw, Creola, as well as areas along Interstate 65 toward the Mobile River, will continue to experience rainfall this evening. However, the activity is moving northeast and is expected to exit Mobile County by around 9:00 pm. Showers may persist through at least 10:00 pm across central and upper Baldwin Counties, generally north of Interstate 10. Only isolated brief showers will occur south of Interstate 10.

Short Term Update (Issued at 6:45 PM CDT)

Heavy rain showers are continuing across Mobile and Baldwin Counties as of 6:40 pm. The most concentrated area of showers is located south of Interstate 10 and east of Interstate 65, in Mobile County, and generally north of Interstate 10 in Baldwin County. Additional showers near Grand Bay are moving northeast and will once again bring rain to western sections of Mobile after 7:00 pm.

A few isolated thunderstorms have developed this evening over southeast Mobile County. Additional thunderstorms may occur further east over Mobile Bay and Baldwin County as well. Occasional lightning, heavy rain, and gusty winds will accompany any these storms.

Special Weather Update

As of 6:35 pm, a strong thunderstorm is located between Interstate 10 and Bayou La Batre. This storm is moving northeast and will reach Bellingrath Road by 6:40 PM, and Rangleline Road 6:45 pm. The most intense portion of the storm is expected to remain south of Tilman’s Corner. Occasional cloud-to-ground lightning, gusty winds, and possibly small hail will accompany this thunderstorm. Heavy rainfall can also be expected which will significantly reducing visibility and resulting in hazardous driving conditions.

Short Term Update (Issued at 6:01 PM CDT)

Heavy rain showers are occurring over the southeastern half of Mobile County as of 5:50 PM. These showers are moving slowly northeast and are expected to persist through the evening hours.

A few isolated thunderstorms may develop this evening, especially further south across southern and southeastern Mobile County and over Baldwin County. Occasional lightning, heavy rain, and gusty winds will accompany any storms that develop.

-RB

Short Term Update (Issued at 8:35 AM CDT)

Scattered rain showers continue across the greater Mobile area this morning. A few of these showers are heavy. Most thunderstorm activity continues to remain offshore, but a few thunderstorms may spread onshore this morning bringing gusty winds and occasional cloud-to-ground lightning. Rainfall amounts will be less than a quarter of an inch through 11 AM.

Short Term Update (Issued at 6:30 AM CDT)

Scattered rain showers will continue to spread across the greater Mobile area this morning. A few heavier showers, and possibly embedded thunderstorms, will also move across the area over the next few hours. Rainfall amounts will be less than a quarter of an inch through 8 AM. If driving, be sure to reduce your speed and use your headlights when it is raining.

Short Term Update (Issued at 1:05 AM CDT)

Light to moderate rain showers will spread across the greater Mobile area over the next several hours. Heavier showers, along with embedded thunderstorms will move into the area later on this morning. Rainfall amounts will be less than a tenth of an inch through 3 AM. If you will be venturing out tonight reduce driving speeds, as roadways will be slick.

Saturday Evening Forecast

Forecast Issued by Daniel Lamb on 04/29/2006 at 6:49:37 pm CT

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Tonight	Sunday	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday
	78°F	82°F	83°F	84°F
67°F		61°F	63°F	64°F
SE 15-25 mph G 30 mph	SE 10-20 mph G 25 mph	S 5-15 mph	S 5-10 mph	SW 5-10 mph
60%	60%	0%	0%	20%

Detailed Forecast

*** Wind Advisory in effect until 1 PM Sunday coastal *** Tonight… Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely after midnight. Low around 67. Winds southeast 15-25 mph with gusts to 30 mph. Chance of rain is 60 percent. Sunday... Showers and thunderstorms likely. High around 78. Winds southeast 10-20 mph with gusts to 25 mph. Chance of rain is 60 percent. Sunday Night... Partly cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms. Low around 61. Winds southeast 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Monday... Partly cloudy. High around 82. Winds south 5-15 mph. Monday Night... Partly cloudy. Low around 63. Winds southeast 5-10 mph. Tuesday... Partly cloudy. High around 83. Winds south 5-10 mph. Tuesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low around 64. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Wednesday... Partly cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms. High around 84. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Wednesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low around 64. Winds southwest 5-10 mph.

Technical Discussion

Currently... Mid to high level clouds continue to make for a mostly cloudy day across Mobile Area Weather land. Temperatures have topped out in the mid/upper 70s, and are on the slow curve downward. The storymaker of the day has been the wind, with several gusts to 35 mph at KMOB ASOS throughout the day, and no letting up so far. Regional radar shows a large mass of rain and thunderstorms extended from the Lake Charles/Acadiana region of LA to around Alexandria to near the Vicksburg/Tallulah-Jackson area. North of there, intensity tapers off. The south part of the line has a few embedded bows. A few SVR warnings in effect along this line and a rather large red box (check, and a new smaller one issued just east of that one... to our west), though there haven't been any tornado reports that we've seen during its existence this afternoon. This line is propogating to the east rather slowly along an H7 theta-e axis. Short Term... Our convective precip band will approach the area over night. There continues to be significant discrepancies between NAM and GFS on timing, but the GFS initialized better, and looking at the 500mb chart, I believe it's right. Upper level winds are very much SW to NE along a speed max over the convective line. While the speed max will shift off to the north, the upper level winds will continue to be SW->NE or W->E. If anything, this line slows some, but it should still get into our area sometime after midnight but before daybreak. It may slow down as it moves over us, so locally heavy rainfall will be a concern. As it continues to slowly shift east, it should weaken. By then, it will have outrun its support/forcing. Looks like our surface front will stall west of the area, then retrograde back to the west and weaken as a new system organizes over the middle of the country late this weekend. High pressure keeps its firm grasp over the NE CONUS. Long Term... Upper flow goes zonal through the remainder of the forecast period. Surface boundary slowly sags south into the area middle of next week, with no major upper level features pushing it along. This could bring some precip on Wednesday, but nothing very organized. Will bump up PoPs slightly on Wednesday to account for this.

Hazardous Weather

Tonight through Sunday: South to southeasterly winds sustained around 15 to 25 miles per hour will continue during the overnight hours, with occasional gusts over 30 miles per hour, especially closer to the coast. A Wind Advisory is in effect until 1 PM Sunday for coastal areas. Caution is advised if you will be traveling, especially if you will be in a high profile vehicle. Gusty winds will blow around loose, unsecured objects outdoors. Be sure to move them in order to prevent injuries to people or damage to property. An area of showers and thunderstorms are expected to approach the area overnight tonight. Scattered thunderstorms will remain possible during the day on Sunday. A few of these storms may become strong. The main threat with these storms will be in the form of damaging winds...but some small hail will also be possible. In addition to the threat of strong thunderstorms, heavy rainfall will bring the potential for localized flash flooding in some areas. Persons in low lying areas should remain weather alert. Do not drive into areas where water covers the road way. Turn around - don't drown! Monday through Wednesday: No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Astronomical and Climatological Data
Moon Phase New Moon Sunset 7:30 PM Sunrise 6:10 AM	04/30/06 Normal High Record High Normal Low Record Low Temperature 81°F 92°F (1943) 58°F 49°F (1945) April Normal Wettest Driest Precipitation 5.06 in. 17.69 in. (1955) 0.08 in. (1999)

Special Weather Update (Issued at 5:40 PM CDT)

Wind Advisory for the Coastal Areas through Sunday, Expires at 7 PM for Inland Areas
The National Weather Service in Mobile has extended the Wind Advisory for lower Mobile and Baldwin counties until 1 PM Sunday. Sustained south to southeasterly winds will continue near 15-25 miles per hour overnight and into the early part of Sunday. Occasional gusts of over 30 miles per hour are also possible.

Remember to bring in light unsecured objects in order to avoid losing them or to prevent damage to persons or property. Driving may be difficult, especially in high profile vehicles such as large trucks. Slow down a bit if you're going to be venturing out today.

The Wind Advisory for upper Mobile and Baldwin counties, including North Mobile, Saraland, Citronelle, Bay Minette, and surrounding areas, will expire at 7 PM this evening.

Saturday Morning Forecast

Forecast Issued by Justin Gibbs/Daniel Lamb on 04/29/2006 at 2:33:04 am CT

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Today	Sunday	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday
80°F	80°F	83°F	83°F	82°F
	65°F	61°F	62°F	63°F
S 15-25 mph G 35 mph	S 15-25 mph	SE 5-15 mph	S 5-10 mph	SW 5-10 mph
0%	50%	20%	10%	10%

Detailed Forecast

*** Wind Advisory in effect from 9 AM to 7 PM *** Today... Increasing cloudiness. High around 80. Winds south 15-25 mph with gusts to 35 mph. Saturday Night... Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low round 65. Winds south 10-20 mph. Chance of rain is 30 percent. Sunday... Mostly cloudy with a good chance of showers and thunderstorms. High round 80. Winds south 15-25 mph. Chance of rain is 50 percent. Sunday Night... Mostly cloudy with a good chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low round 61. Winds southwest 10-20 mph. Chance of rain is 50 percent. Monday... Partly cloudy with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. High round 83. Winds southeast 5-15 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Monday Night... Partly cloudy. Low round 62. Winds southeast 5-10 mph. Tuesday... Partly cloudy. High round 83. Winds south 5-10 mph. Tuesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low round 63. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Wednesday... Partly cloudy. High round 82. Winds southwest 5-10 mph.

Technical Discussion

Right Now... Substantial ridge axis has built in aloft with an axis running form SRN MS to Lake Michigan. Downstream powerful shortwave trof is digging into the lower plains. Low-level/sfc cyclone is also deepening across the SRN Plains which is primarily responsible for this mornings weather with light southeasterly breezes at <5kts being reported at most obs sites. Short Term... Sfc low deepends and pushes to the northeast through the first two periods...lower level features respond and deepen as well. Sfc winds will be very brisk tomorrow as guidance indicates winds increasing to 20-25kts shortly after 13z. Moisture aloft as indicated on WV/KLIX sounding will allow for thin cloud deck through most of the day and we probably will see a bit of lower cu as the day wears on in the WAA pattern...cloud coverage should be between 4/10 6/10 through about 19z but increase to mostly cloudy by nightfall...will go with increasing cloudiness wording to allow for this process. Given strength of sfc/850mb windfields in guidance will add "windy" wording to the forecast and bump winds up just a touch to 15-25 mph with gusts up to 35. Cloudcover makes temperature forecast a bit of a bear...will generally lean warmer than mos however and lean towards the going package with a high of 80. Main forecast challenge regards the impact of the afforementioned sfc cyclone on our the area...mainly around POPs/Timing, etc. GFS/NAM are in terrible agreement regarding timing and overall impact of this system. GFS is much stronger and faster bringing the front through the area Sunday evening...while NAM is quite a bit slower lingering a weak frontal passage for later in the early morning hours on Monday. System has substantial ridging at the sfc and aloft to contend with as it moves eastward and futher slowing is anticipated due to the strength of the ridge and the weakening of the plains storm system. GFS also paints substantial QPF signal across the NCNTRL gulf coast with 2-2.5" indicated as the system moves through Sunday evening. This solution appears to be at least partially a by product of convective feedback and is discounted for now. With substantial WA-moisture advection ongoing given strength/bredth of low level windfields instability parameters rise as the UL trof axis approaches from the west. NAM indicates SBCAPE values around 800 j/kg starting Sunday afternoon and progressing through early Monday morning as the rather diffuse frontal system begins to move through. 700mb omegas seem to peak out by Sunday evening so will generally focus the pcpn event around that timeframe. Main limiting factor at this time is with frontal weakening and many questions regarding around the system sfc convergence will be rather meager. Our best chance of pcpn will be from a previously initiated MCS that pushes eastward through the moist and unstable air. Will taper down pops a bit mainly out of guidance continuity concerns going 30 Saturday night and broadbrushing 50s into the Sunday and Sunday evening period. JG Long Term (Monday through Wednesday)... To put things mildly, the extended period of the forecast looks murky. Due to some rather unusual guidance solutions, forecast confidence is somewhat low. The models are having a hard time deciding what to do with the robust system that is currently over the middle of the country as it approaches a rather strong area of surface high pressure over Eastern Canada. Main upper low over the middle of the country closes off as the upper trough goes negative. The low becomes vertically-stacked by 12Z Monday, which explains the apparent weakening of the upper trough and surface cyclone portrayed in the models. GFS and ECMWF convert upper flow to largely zonal through the remainder of the forecast period. The surface translation at this point becomes the big question. Believe there will be a weakening boundary somewhere in the area on Monday, but perhaps in the form of a warm front (or a stnry front to evolve into a warm front) with return flow becoming established. With no real forcing mechanisms in the area during this time, see no reason for there to be substantial precipitation. Nevertheless, due to uncertainty associated with the discontinuity between NAM and GFS, will stick a 20 PoP in Monday. Fairly typical for the GFS to be the drier solution, but this is a timing issue and not a QPF issue. New surface low brings a new front into the area. It appears, with weak upper support, this will be a weakening feature as it approaches our area. Once again, this boundary may stall over or near the area and fizzle. Nevertheless, we could have slightly increased cloud cover on Tuesday (especially late) and into Wednesday. Will toss up a silent 10 POP for later shifts to reconsider. Timing is way too muddled to pick a set time for precip and go with higher POPs. Plenty of surface moisture available as always, but forcing is in question. Will say this - weak upper level winds (which is the reason we would see these weakening/stalling surface systems) will not lead to thunderstorms of any major ferocity - just pulse type activity that moves slowly. Due to a continued strong pressure gradient between the obstinate high to our NE and a series of developing surface cyclones to our W/NW, winds will remain breezy into the extended portion of the forecast. DL

Hazardous Weather

Today: Southeasterly winds will increase to 15 to 25 miles per hour during the morning, with occasional gusts to 35 miles per hour during the day. A Wind Advisory has been issued effective from 9 AM to 7 PM today. Caution is advised if you will be traveling, especially if you will be in a high profile vehicle. Gusty winds will blow around loose, unsecured objects outdoors. Be sure to move them in order to prevent injuries to people or damage to property. Tonight through Monday: Showers and thunderstorms are expected to accompany a weakening frontal system Saturday night through early Monday morning. There is a chance that a few of these storms may become severe. The main threat with these storms will be in the form of damaging winds...but isolated large hail will also be a possibility with any storms that reach severe limits. The best chance for severe weather will be mainly in the afternoon and evening hours Sunday. Several questions remain regarding the timing and overall intensity of this weekends storm system. Monitor Mobile Area Weather for later statements and updated forecasts. Tuesday and Wednesday: No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Astronomical and Climatological Data
Moon Phase New Moon Sunrise 6:11 AM Sunset 7:30 PM	04/29/06 Normal High Record High Normal Low Record Low Temperature 81°F 91°F (1970) 58°F 48°F (2000) April Normal Wettest Driest Precipitation 5.06 in. 17.69 in. (1955) 0.08 in. (1999)

Special Weather Update (Issued at 12:20 AM CDT)

Wind Advisory for the Mobile Area Saturday
The National Weather Service in Mobile has issued a Wind Advisory, including all of Mobile and Baldwin counties, effective on Saturday from 9 AM to 7 PM. Sustained southeasterly winds will increase to near 15-25 miles per hour over the next 12 hours and last through much of the day Saturday. Occasional gusts of over 30 miles per hour are also possible. Winds will remain gusty, but taper off a bit overnight Saturday night.

Remember to bring in light unsecured objects in order to avoid losing them or to prevent damage to persons or property. Driving may be difficult, especially in high profile vehicles such as large trucks. Slow down a bit if you're going to be venturing out today.

Friday Morning Forecast

Forecast Issued by Robert Frye on 04/28/2006 at 3:19:11 am CT

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Today	Saturday	Sunday	Monday	Tuesday
81°F	81°F	79°F	82°F	83°F
	62°F	66°F	68°F	61°F
VAR 3-6 mph	S 10-15 mph G 20 mph	S 5-10 mph G 15 mph	E 5-10 mph	S 5-10 mph
0%	20%	60%	0%	0%

Detailed Forecast

Today... Mostly sunny. High 81. Winds variable 3-6 mph. Friday Night... Mostly clear. Low 62. Winds south 5-10 mph. Saturday... Chance of thunderstorms. High 81. Winds south 10-15 mph with gusts to 20 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Saturday Night... Thunderstorms likely. Low 66. Winds south 10-15 mph with gusts to 20 mph. Chance of rain is 60 percent. Sunday... Thunderstorms likely. High 79. Winds south 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph. Chance of rain is 60 percent. Sunday Night... Chance of thunderstorms. Low 68. Winds southeast 3-6 mph. Chance of rain is 30 percent. Monday... Partly cloudy. High 82. Winds east 5-10 mph. Monday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 61. Winds south 5-10 mph. Tuesday... Partly cloudy. High 83. Winds south 5-10 mph.

Technical Discussion

Short Term (Friday through Sunday): A mid lat cyclone will move thorugh the area this weekend. GFS/NAM both suggest nice chance of precip. Went with 60 POPs. QPF values are somewhat different. The GFS is saying more than NAM of course. With the last two systems the GFS has out proformed the NAM and current thinking is that this will also be the case once again. As for temps went with MOS mostly. However, did average out a max temp for Sunday. As for SVR enough instablilty may sneak in for a rumble or two. Later shifts will look into the SVR threat. We'll go ahead and issue a HWO for a "SLT" Threat on Sunday. Looks like more much needed rain is instore for the Mobile Bay Area. We need all we can get. We are sitting at 1 foot below average! Long Term (Monday through Tuesday): As the mid lat cyclone weakens over the plains the cold front will become stationary just east of the area. Another sytems will form and bring another shot of rain into the area late Tuesday and Wednesday. Due to low confidence we'll keep POPs at zero.

Hazardous Weather

The Storm Prediction Center has placed the areas west of the Bay under a "Slight" risk for severe weather on Sunday. Right now the main threats look to be large hail and damaging winds. If you have interests on the water or any type of outdoor activites Sunday stay with us for later details and updates about this possible Severe Weather Chance.

Astronomical and Climatological Data
Moon Phase Crescent (Waning) Sunrise 6:12 AM Sunset 7:29 PM	04/28/06 Normal High Record High Normal Low Record Low Temperature 80°F 91°F (1971) 58°F 42°F (1992) April Normal Wettest Driest Precipitation 5.06 in. 17.69 in. (1955) 0.08 in. (1999)

Wednesday Morning Forecast

Forecast Issued by Daniel Lamb on 04/26/2006 at 4:10:29 am CT

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Today	Thursday	Friday	Saturday	Sunday
80°F	78°F	80°F	79°F	81°F
	57°F	54°F	60°F	64°F
W 5-15 mph	N 5-10 mph	SE 5-10 mph	S 5-15 mph	W 5-10 mph
70%	0%	0%	20%	0%

Detailed Forecast

Today... Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. High around 80. Winds west 5-15 mph. Chance of rain is 70 percent. Wednesday Night... Isolated showers and thunderstorms early. Otherwise, becoming partly cloudy. Low around 57. Winds northwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Thursday... Mostly sunny. High around 78. Winds north 5-10 mph. Thursday Night... Mostly clear. Low around 54. Winds north 5-10 mph. Friday... Mostly sunny. High around 80. Winds southeast 5-10 mph. Friday Night... Partly cloudy. Low around 60. Winds southeast 5-10 mph. Saturday... Partly cloudy, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. High around 79. Winds south 5-15 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Saturday Night... Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low around 64. Winds southwest 5-15 mph. Chance of rain is 30 percent. Sunday... Partly cloudy. High around 81. Winds west 5-10 mph.

Technical Discussion

Apologies for the delayed products - we're experiencing some computer problems here at Mobile Area Weather. Something about our computers counting down like a time bomb and Windows Update... or something. Will be fairly brief and to the point. Current model guidance unanimously calls for overcast for the entire day. A quick look at IR satellite supports this argument. There is a rather substantial shield of precipitation across central MS, then over SW LA. This activity itself, or blowoff from it, should keep things fairly cloudy during the day. We won't have the insolation we did yesterday, and we will continue to not have enough deep-layer shear in place to tilt and sustain thunderstorm updrafts for long periods of time. For this reason, I believe this will prevent any possibilities of widespread severe weather. SPC Day 1 slight comes up to the south side of Mobile County and includes much of Baldwin. With some weak instability, pulse severe will be possible, but do not expect anything more than this. Fropa looks to occur sometime around 00Z this evening. Will lower PoPs for tonight. Models printing out no QPF after 00Z. Think our best chances of rain today will be before noon. Looking farther ahead, our next system approaches the area around Saturday. Believe the Saturday PoP looks good based on latest guidance, and will actually bump up the Saturday night PoP slightly. Think we can keep Sunday dry for now, but later shifts can reconsider.

Hazardous Weather

Today- Showers and thunderstorms will possible across the area today. A few of these storms could be capable of producing small hail and brief gusty winds as they move across the area. Additionally, locally heavy rainfall may cause minor urban and small stream flooding. Tonight through Sunday- A strong storm system will move across the Ohio Valley this weekend. Thunderstorms will be possible across the area sometime in this general timeframe. Currently, it is too early to determine the likelihood, and possible timing, of strong thunderstorms in the Mobile area. Future forecasts will provide more detailed updates on what can be expected from this system. Otherwise, no hazardous weather is expected.

Astronomical and Climatological Data
Moon Phase Half Full (Waning) Sunrise 6:14 AM Sunset 7:28 PM	04/26/06 Normal High Record High Normal Low Record Low Temperature 80°F 89°F (1989) 57°F 46°F (1992) April Normal Wettest Driest Precipitation 5.06 in. 17.69 in. (1955) 0.08 in. (1999)

Tuesday Evening Forecast

Forecast Issued by Robert Frye on 04/25/2006 at 6:55:19 pm CT

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Tonight	Tomorrow	Thursday	Friday	Saturday
	80°F	80°F	81°F	82°F
68°F		58°F	53°F	58°F
SW 5-10 mph	W 5-10 mph	N 5-10 mph	VAR 3-6 mph	S 5-10 mph G 15 mph
50%	70%	0%	0%	20%

Detailed Forecast

Tonight… Thunderstorms likely. Low 68. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 50 percent. Tomorrow... Thunderstorms likely. High 80. Winds west 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 70 percent. Wednesday Night... Thunderstorms likely. Low 58. Winds north 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 40 percent. Thursday... Mostly sunny. High 80. Winds north 5-10 mph. Thursday Night... Mostly clear. Low 53. Winds north 3-6 mph. Friday... Partly cloudy. High 81. Winds variable 3-6 mph. Friday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 58. Winds south 3-6 mph. Saturday... Chance of thunderstorms. High 82. Winds south 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Saturday Night... Chance of thunderstorms. Low 64. Winds south 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent.

Technical Discussion

Forecast Discussion (Tuesday through Saturday): A surface low will move across the area on our Wednesday. That said, rain and Thunderstorms are possible. QPF values are rather high on the 12z GFS. (1-2" of rain.) Where the nam only suggests about an inch. We'll keep POPs at 70 for Wednesday and drop them off Wednesday Night as the low moves to our east. Winds will switch more westerly and dry us out for the most part. Another disturbance will near the area later this weekend; however, confidence is low this far out.

Hazardous Weather

As a weak disturbance nears the area Showers and Thunderstorms will be possible for your Wednesday. Although severe thunderstorms aren't a huge threat we may have an isolated storm reach severe limits capable of producing Large Hail, Strong gusty winds, and Dangerous Cloud to Ground Lightning. Please remember your lightning safety tips if you will be outside tomorrow.

Astronomical and Climatological Data
Moon Phase Half Full (Waning) Sunset 7:27 PM Sunrise 6:14 AM	04/26/06 Normal High Record High Normal Low Record Low Temperature 80°F 89°F (1989) 57°F 46°F (1992) April Normal Wettest Driest Precipitation 5.06 in. 17.69 in. (1955) 0.08 in. (1999)

Short Term Update (4:45 PM CDT)

Thunderstorms are currently affecting the areas from Bay Minnette, Alabama back down to Moss Point, Mississippi. The line of thunderstorms is moving to the East Southeast at 25 MPH. Small hail and gusty winds will also be possible in the areas affected. Dangerous Cloud to ground lightning is also likely with these storms as they head east southeast. Special Marine Warnings have been issued for Mobile Bay and adjacent waters in the Gulf of Mexico until 5:30 PM CDT. Mariners are urged to seek safe harbor.

Special Weather Update (4:00 PM CDT)

The National Weather Service in New Orleans has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Jackson and Harrison Counties in Southern Mississippi until 4:30 PM CDT. Currently at 4:00 CDT the radar is showing a line of strong storms in rural northcentral Jackson County to 5 miles north of Gulfport. These storms are moving East at around 15-20 MPH. Large Hail and Damaging winds are possible with these storms.

Short Term Update (Issued at 2:37 PM)

Showers and thunderstorms will continue across the region this afternoon. All thunderstorms are moving northeast at around 20 mph and are producing very heavy rainfall and dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning.

At 2:30 PM, the strongest storm was located over northwest Mobile County and was approaching Citronelle. Very heavy rain, dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning, small hail, and wind gusts to near 40 mph can be expected as the storm passes. Weaker storms extend eastward across Celeste Road to near Creola and Satsuma. Additional development is likely through the rest of the afternoon.

Special Weather Update (Issued at 1:30 PM CDT)

Strong Thunderstorms Tracking Across Mobile and Baldwin Counties
A cluster of strong thunderstorms continues to track over north central Mobile County and is now beginning to move into northern Baldwin County. At 1:30 PM, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated the thunderstorms extended from near Prichard, through Saraland and Satsuma to near Creola, moving east-northeast at 20 miles per hour. Locations that will be affected through 3:00 PM include Saraland, Satsuma, Creola, Bay Minette, and Stockton. This thunderstorm will be capable of producing hail to the size of dimes and wind gusts to near 45 miles per hour. Also, it is producing deadly cloud-to-ground lightning. Seek shelter until the storm passes your area.

Special Weather Update (Issued at 12:46 PM CDT)

Strong Thunderstorms over Northwestern Mobile
Thunderstorms are intensifying over western Mobile County and the western and northwestern portion of the city of Mobile. At 12:45 PM, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm over northwest Mobile, moving east northeast at 25 miles per hour. Locations that will be affected through 1:30 PM include Mobile, Prichard, Chickasaw, Saraland, and Satsuma.

This thunderstorm will be capable of producing hail to the size of dimes and wind gusts to near 45 miles per hour. Also, it is producing deadly cloud-to-ground lightning. Seek shelter until the storm passes your area.

Short Term Update (Issued at 11:40 AM CDT)

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are developing along the Gulf Coast late this morning. At 11:35 AM, a cluster of thunderstorms was located across western Mobile County from Wilmer to near Tanner-Williams. New thunderstorms were developing farther southeast to near Semmes and West Mobile. These showers and thunderstorms were tracking east-northeast at around 25 miles per hour.

Pea to dime size hail and wind gusts to around 35 miles per hour can be expected in the strongest thunderstorms. All thunderstorms are producing and will continue to produce frequent cloud-to-ground lightning. If a thunderstorm approaches your area, stay indoors until it passes. Remember, if you are close enough to a thunderstorm to hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

These storms will continue to increase in areal coverage over the next few hours. A few thunderstorms could become severe. Stay tuned to a good source of weather information, and be prepared to act quickly if a warning is issued.

Monday Night Forecast

Forecast Issued by Michael Leach on 04/24/2006 at 2:31:56 pm CT

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Tonight	Tomorrow	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday
	85°F	81°F	79°F	81°F
64°F		67°F	56°F	53°F
S 5-10 mph	SSW 10 mph	W 10-15 mph	N 5-10 mph	S 5-10 mph
0%	20%	60%	0%	0%

Detailed Forecast

Tonight… Partly cloudy. Low around 64. Winds south 5-10 mph. Tomorrow... Increasing clouds with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. High near 85. Winds south-southwest around 10 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Tuesday Night... Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low around 67. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 40 percent. Wednesday... Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. High near 81. Winds west 10-15 mph. Chance of rain is 60 percent. Wednesday Night... Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening. Decreasing clouds overnight. Low around 56. Winds northwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Thursday... Mostly sunny. High around 79. Winds north 5-10 mph. Thursday Night... Mostly clear. Low near 53. Winds north around 5 mph. Friday... Partly cloudy. High around 81. Winds south 5-10 mph. Friday Night... Partly cloudy. Low around 60. Winds south 5-10 mph.

Technical Discussion

Forecast Discussion (Monday through Friday): Currently, the region is under the influence of a surface area of high pressure located over the Florida Panhandle. Surface winds are coming from the south to southwest around this area of high pressure. For tonight, the area of high pressure and its associated surface ridging will continue to dominate our weather. Once again cut a couple of degrees off of MAV and MET guidance as MOS has been running a couple of degrees warm for overnight lows over the past few nights. On Tuesday, clouds will increase as the next storm system approaches our area. Retained slight chance PoP's for Tuesday during the day. Models differ a little on timing of the next frontal passage. GFS now seems to be quicker with fropa than the NAM. The GFS brings the front through around 27/00z, while the NAM brings the front through closer to around 27/06z. Best chance of rain appears to be during the day on Wednesday, and feel comfortable raising rain chances to likely category (60%) for Wednesday. Will keep a 20% PoP in the forecast for Wednesday night to account for any lingering showers (and the difference in fropa times indicated by models). By late Wednesday night, clouds should begin to decrease as CAA begins over the region. Now, about the chances for severe weather with this system. The ETA shows CAPE values around 1000 J/KG Tuesday evening through early Wednesday morning, and then again Wednesday afternoon, with LI's between -2 and -5. The GFS is a little less robust, with CAPE values between 500-800 J/KG, and LI's between -2 and -3. With this, there is the potential of a few strong to isolated severe thunderstorms late Tuesday night and during the day on Wednesday. At this time, the severe weather situation still looks rather marginal. The main threat at this time looks to be large hail with fairly steep lapse rates aloft. Damaging winds would also be possible with the strongest storms. Will continue the strong to severe wording in the HWO, but not add any wording to the detailed forecast at this time. In addition, there is the potential for locally heavy rainfall in a few areas where storms persist or "train" over the same areas (as is often the case with slow moving cold fronts). Will also mention this in the HWO. Thursday should be a nice day as high pressure building into the Midwest and Lower Mississippi Valley region. CAA will continue, and both highs and lows will be cooler during this period. On Friday, the area of high pressure shifts to the east and an area of low pressure begins to develop over west Texas. Return flow will develop over the area, as winds shift to the south. WAA will begin, and we should see more clouds on Friday than Thursday. However, the area should remain dry on Friday as the closest precip will be located with the developing low over Texas (which could affect our area during the weekend). Previous forecast for this period looks great, and made only minor changes.

Hazardous Weather

A slow moving cold front is expected to approach the area from the west beginning on Tuesday night, and will likely move through the area on Wednesday afternoon or evening. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop in association with the cold front. There is the potential a few strong to isolated severe storms. The main threat with any severe storms will be large hail and damaging winds. Also, locally heavy rainfall is possible with the strongest storms, and where storms persist over the same areas. People are urged to keep up with the latest forecasts concerning this weather system.

Astronomical and Climatological Data
Moon Phase Half Full (Waning) Sunset 7:26 PM Sunrise 6:15 AM	04/25/06 Normal High Record High Normal Low Record Low Temperature 80°F 88°F (1989) 57°F 39°F (1910) April Normal Wettest Driest Precipitation 5.06 in. 17.69 in. (1955) 0.08 in. (1999)

Monday Morning Forecast

Forecast Issued by Justin Gibbs on 04/24/2006 at 12:50:40 am CT

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Today	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday
87°F	85°F	81°F	79°F	81°F
	64°F	66°F	54°F	54°F
S 5-10 mph	SW 5-10 mph	W 5-15 mph	N 5-10 mph	SW 5-10 mph
0%	20%	50%	0%	0%

Detailed Forecast

Today... Partly cloudy. High 87. Winds south 5-10 mph. Monday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 64. Winds south 5-10 mph. Tuesday... Increasing cloudiness with isolated showers and thunderstorms. High 85. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Tuesday Night... Scattered showers and thunderstorms, otherwise mostly cloudy. Low 66. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 50 percent. Wednesday... Scattered showers and thunderstorms, otherwise mostly cloudy. High 81. Winds west 5-15 mph. Chance of rain is 50 percent. Wednesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 54. Winds northwest 5-15 mph. Thursday... Mostly sunny. High 79. Winds north 5-10 mph. Thursday Night... Mostly clear. Low 54. Winds west 5-10 mph. Friday... Partly cloudy. High 81. Winds southwest 5-10 mph.

Technical Discussion

Forecast Discussion (Monday through Friday): Right Now... Ridge centered over the ERN gulf controls the wx pattern this morning. Light southeasterly winds are reported at all regional observations with little in the way of cloud cover. Ridging has built in throughout much of the column with the only pertubation upstream which is responsible for the sfc cylcone that will be the main focus of this fcst pkg, and the convection ongoing across the CNTRL CONUS. A bit of moisture remains in this airmass despite the ridging however as WV/KLIX 12z sounding shows in the mid levels, and just off the surface. Short Term... Ridge axis will build through period one across the area...residual moisture and daytime heating will again spark a few clouds in the afternoon but it appears we won't get too much above 4/10 coverage during the day. Given the strength of the ridging aloft compared with 12/18z guidance will bump going high up 1 degree which is also 1 warmer than warmest MOS. Same pattern exists thorugh the overnight hours. MOS has been running a touch too warm with overnight lows and this is reflected in going package. Will cointinue with 64 for Mon Night low under Partly cloudy skies as the trof axis begins to approach from the northwest. Long Term... Tuesday we begin to examine the approaching storm system from the northwest. Guidance is in solid agreement with the overall handling of the features with this system, but NAM/GFS do differ by about 6 hours on timing with the frontal passage. NAM is a touch quicker and brings the front through by 12z while GFS lags behind to closer to 0z Thursday. Upper level winds do not really catch up with the frontal boundary until 21-0z Thursday so will go with the slower solution, which is supported by ECMWF/UKMET. Essentially current scenario involves a frontal system diving to the southeast Tuesday and becoming more east-to-west oriented as the afternoon progresses, eventually slowing along the NCNTRAL gulf coast much akin to what we saw occur Friday. Will go with going forecasts solution with 20/50/50 for the event. This gives us pretty acurate coverage pops to what is expected to occur, later shifts can perhaps tweak one period slightly higher once the event nears and we get a better look at which 12 hour timeframe will see the most activity. In terms of convection intensity NAM forecast soundings show a rather substantial positive area from roughly 0z Wednesday through the mid-afternoon frontal passage. NAM CAPE values hold around 1800-2000 j/kg through the event with LIs around -4/-6. Lapse rates of 7.0-7.5 c/km also appear to support the possibility of vigourous convection with the frontal passage. However given meager upper level support (0-6km shear peaks at around 25kts) do not expect overly organized convection--again similarly to Friday's event we should be looking at more pulse severe oriented storms. Given the steep lapse rates aloft the main threat at this time appears to be in the form of large hail, althogh damaging downburst winds will be an attendant threat with any elevated core. Tornadoes, other than those fueled by localized helicity maximums near boundaries do not currently appear likely. Beyond that another sfc ridge moves in from the southwest, and a rather robust closed low forms aloft...this prevents much in the way of upper level ridging over the NCNTRL Gulf and aids in the support of the more climatologically normal values 0z MOS suite is painting for highs...going forecast has solid handle on this will make few changes to the extended.

Hazardous Weather

A cold front is expected to slowly move through the area Tuesday night into Wednesday. As this system slowly pushes in from the north it is expected to spark showers and thunderstorms. Some of these storms may become severe with the main threat being large hail, damaging winds will also be possible with any storm that manages to reach severe limits. The storms will likely be fairly disorganized in nature and may redevelop over the same areas several times. Some areas may recieve locally heavy rainfall amounts as this system pushes through. Updates will be made to this product as the event approaches and forecast details become clearer.

Astronomical and Climatological Data
Moon Phase Half Full (Waning) Sunrise 6:16 AM Sunset 7:26 PM	04/24/06 Normal High Record High Normal Low Record Low Temperature 80°F 91°F (1999) 57°F 43°F (1884) April Normal Wettest Driest Precipitation 5.06 in. 17.69 in. (1955) 0.08 in. (1999)

Sunday Night Forecast

Forecast Issued by Randy Bowers on 04/23/2006 at 2:37:56 pm CT

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Tonight	Tomorrow	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday
	86°F	85°F	81°F	79°F
61°F		64°F	65°F	53°F
S 5 mph	S 5-10 mph	SW 5-10 mph	SW 5-10 mph	N 5-10 mph
0%	0%	20%	50%	0%

Detailed Forecast

Tonight… Becoming partly cloudy. Low 61. Winds south 5 mph. Tomorrow... Partly cloudy. High 86. Winds south 5-10 mph. Monday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 64. Winds south 5 mph. Tuesday... Partly cloudy with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly late. High 85. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Tuesday Night... A chance of rain and thunderstorms. Otherwise, mostly cloudy. Low 65. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 50 percent. Wednesday... A chance of rain and thunderstorms. Otherwise, mostly cloudy. High 81. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 50 percent. Wednesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 53. Winds northwest 5-10 mph. Thursday... Partly cloudy. High 79. Winds north 5-10 mph. Thursday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 52. Winds north 5-10 mph.

Technical Discussion

Surface ridge centered over our area with light winds and little cloud cover this afternoon. This ridge will slowly shift east early in the week with southerly flow beginning as early as late tonight, continuing ahead of next system by mid-week. Little concerns for the short term portion of the forecast with the exception of overnight temperatures tonight. With ridge axis overhead shifting just east of us by morning, winds will remain light and am doubtful that surface Td values will rise as much as MOS indicate overnight. Therefore, have undercut MOS lows by a degree or two. Will remain consistent with previously forecasted temperatures into next week with MOS remaining very similar to what we still have going. Mid-level shortwave and cold front will approach on Tuesday. Some differences in models with regard to strength of this system makes extended portion somewhat challenging. There doesn't seem to be a major discrepancy in timing with fropa, though models are quicker its progression. To account for this, have introduced a slight PoP for late Tuesday and high chance for Tuesday night. SWODY3 from SPC indicates a slight risk for severe. Will let later shifts evaluate subsequent model runs for possible issuance of HWO. Weak lapse rates resulting in marginal instability as well as weak deep layer shear point toward an isolated marginal severe event, at best. As previously mentioned, some differences in strength of cold front exist between models with GFS being the most aggressive, as is typical. Regardless, cooler/drier air mass progged for late week and will continue to follow MEX values for post-frontal temperatures. Return flow reestablishes into the weekend in advance of next wave and next precipitation event likely to be Sunday/Monday per medium range consensus.

Hazardous Weather

No hazardous weather is expected through the forecast period.

Astronomical and Climatological Data
Moon Phase Half Full (Waning) Sunset 7:26 PM Sunrise 6:16 AM	04/24/06 Normal High Record High Normal Low Record Low Temperature 80°F 91°F (1999) 57°F 43°F (1884) April Normal Wettest Driest Precipitation 5.06 in. 17.69 in. (1955) 0.08 in. (1999)

Sunday Morning Forecast

Forecast Issued by Robert Frye on 04/23/2006 at 12:58:25 am CT

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Today	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday
86°F	86°F	85°F	82°F	83°F
	63°F	67°F	66°F	60°F
S 3-6 mph	S 5-10 mph	S 5-10 mph	W 5-10 mph	SW 5-10 mph
0%	0%	10%	30%	0%

Detailed Forecast

Today... Sunny. High 86. Winds south 3-6 mph. Sunday Night... Mostly clear. Low 63. Winds calm. Monday... Mostly sunny. High 86. Winds south 5-10 mph. Monday Night... Mostly clear. Low 67. Winds calm. Tuesday... Partly cloudy. High 85. Winds south 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 10 percent. Tuesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 66. Winds variable 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Wednesday... Scattered thunderstorms. High 82. Winds west 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 30 percent. Wednesday Night... Scattered thunderstorms. Low 60. Winds west 3-6 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Thursday... Partly cloudy. High 83. Winds southwest 5-10 mph.

Technical Discussion

Short Term (Sunday through Monday night): High Pressure will be in control of our weather through Monday. With a nice northwestern flow we have dry air in the area cooling our overnight lows and making our warm days a little more tolerable this weekend. However, that will not last long as a return flow will start again on Monday. WAA will be the rule of thumb as the high pressure moves to our east. Long Term (Tuesday through Thursday): Looking at the 0Z runs the GFS is more aggressive with pushing a cold front through the area. GFS QPF values are near .25-.5 again with this system (much like the last). However, NAM is suggesting that it will be slightly dryer. Right now decided to up POPs to 30 for the GFS performance with the last system. Later shifts will decide whether or not to up POPs more. Current thinking is the front will move through and dry us out again and turn the winds more northerly. Overnight lows will also drop down into the upper 50's to low 60's.

Hazardous Weather

No hazardous weather is expected through the forecast period.

Astronomical and Climatological Data
Moon Phase Half Full (Waning) Sunrise 6:17 AM Sunset 7:26 PM	04/23/06 Normal High Record High Normal Low Record Low Temperature 79°F 90°F (1883) 56°F 43°F (1926) April Normal Wettest Driest Precipitation 5.06 in. 17.69 in. (1955) 0.08 in. (1999)

Saturday Night Forecast

Forecast Issued by Randy Bowers/Daniel Lamb on 04/22/2006 at 5:28:42 pm CT

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Tonight	Tomorrow	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday
	86°F	86°F	85°F	80°F
59°F		61°F	67°F	65°F
N 5 mph	VAR 5 mph	S 5-10 mph	SW 5-10 mph	SW 5-10 mph
0%	0%	0%	0%	20%

Detailed Forecast

Tonight… Mostly clear with areas of fog forming. Low 59. Winds north 5 mph. Tomorrow... Mostly sunny. High 86. Winds variable 5 mph. Sunday Night... Mostly clear. Low 61. Winds variable 5 mph. Monday... Partly cloudy. High 86. Winds south 5-10 mph. Monday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 67. Winds south 3-8 mph. Tuesday... Partly cloudy. High 85. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Tuesday Night... Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Low 65. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Wednesday... Isolated showers and thunderstorms. High 80. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Wednesday Night... Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Low 62. Winds west 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent.

Technical Discussion

Short Term (Saturday through Sunday Night): Early this afternoon, last night’s convection had shifted well east with the passage of mid/upper trough. Drier and cooler air was present across our region in the wake of this system. KLIX 12z sounding indicates very dry air above H7 and this was also noted by visual observations from Mobile with deep blue sky. Also, flat CU field present with diurnal heating. CU will decrease rapidly with loss of insolation by this evening and will go with clear skies overnight. One concern will be fog formation overnight with surface ridge in close proximity and moist ground as a result of pervious day’s rainfall. Additionally, low level moisture is still present with Td values ranging from the upper 50s to the lower 60s along the central gulf coast. Will add mention of overnight fog into the forecast. Upper ridge will build into the area temporarily later this weekend before it begins to break down by late Sunday. Until then, rather uneventful weather, with above normal temperatures and dry conditions lasting through the short term portion of this forecast package. Generally stuck close to MOS high temperatures. For lows, believe MOS is a little cool for tonight’s low temperatures and have adjusted up a degree or two given lingering low level moisture. MOS may be slightly too warm for Sunday night lows since low level moisture thins out some and light winds expected resulting from the presence of surface ridge. Therefore, chose to go a degree or two under MOS. -RB Long Term (Monday through Wednesday): With high pressure east of the area Monday and return flow well established, we should fairly quickly re-moisten the lower levels of the atmosphere and continue to rebound temp-wise (not that we fell off that far behind this morning's fropa). Next front should be approaching the Southeastern US by Tuesday. Some model disagreement on when this front will reach us. The GFS continues to insist it will get into the area Tues night and pass through overnight. The NAM (as far as we can see into this event with it) keeps the front north of us through Tues night, but shows shortwaves moving along the front, which could cause prefrontal precipitation, especially by Tues night. At H5 things are more 'troughy' than higher up, but flow is still closer to parallel to our surface front than they are perpendicular. With upper level flow somewhat zonal at this point in the forecast period, I prefer the slower NAM surface translation over the GFS solution. With that said, will introduce a 20 PoP for Tues night through Wed night. Not going to go higher on one particular period until we can nail down timing a little better. -DL

Hazardous Weather

No hazardous weather is expected through the forecast period.

Astronomical and Climatological Data
Moon Phase Half Full (Waning) Sunset 7:25 PM Sunrise 6:17 AM	04/23/06 Normal High Record High Normal Low Record Low Temperature 79°F 90°F (1883) 56°F 43°F (1926) April Normal Wettest Driest Precipitation 5.06 in. 17.69 in. (1955) 0.08 in. (1999)

Short Term Update (Issued at 1:06 PM CDT)

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop and become more numerous over southeast Mississippi this afternoon. Additional development further east is expected as the afternoon progresses. The showers and thunderstorms are expected to remain scattered in nature through the afternoon hours meaning many locations in and around Mobile will not seeing any rainfall at all, initially. By late afternoon, a complex of thunderstorms is expected to approach the area bringing more widespread rain to the Mobile area.

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms. In addition to heavy rain and dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning, the most intense storms will be capable of large hail and damaging winds.

Shortly after 1:00 PM, the most intense activity was confined to Greene, Perry, and Stone Counties in Mississippi. Only a few brief light showers were noted in Mobile County, between Mobile and Citronelle along highway 45.

Friday Evening Forecast

Forecast Issued by Daniel Lamb on 04/21/2006 at 12:04:09 pm CT

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Tonight	Saturday	Sunday	Monday	Tuesday
	84°F	85°F	85°F	84°F
64°F		60°F	62°F	65°F
S 5-15 mph G 25 mph	NW 5-10 mph	S 5-10 mph	S 5-10 mph	SW 5-10 mph
70%	20%	0%	0%	0%

Detailed Forecast

Tonight… Showers and thunderstorms likely. Some thunderstorms could be severe with large hail and damaging winds. Low around 64. Winds south 5-15 mph and gusty near thunderstorms. Chance of rain is 70 percent. Saturday... A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning. Otherwise, decreasing cloudiness. High around 84. Winds northwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Saturday Night... Mostly clear with fog developing overnight. Low around 60. Winds light and variable. Sunday... Mostly sunny. High around 85. Winds south 5-10 mph. Sunday Night... Partly cloudy. Low around 62. Light sound winds. Monday... Partly cloudy. High around 85. Winds south 5-10 mph. Monday Night... Partly cloudy. Low around 65. Winds south 5-10 mph. Tuesday... Partly cloudy. High around 84. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Tuesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low around 64. Winds southwest 5-10 mph.

Technical Discussion

Analysis... Potentially busy weather day ahead for the Mobile area as an approaching storm system will bring a chance of severe weather. Right now, a large upper trough axis is swinging east across the middle of the CONUS. Meanwhile, at the surface, a cold front extends from near DRT to SHV to just S of LZK. Farther north there is discontinuity along this boundary, then it reestablishes itself and extends into the Ohio Valley. Surface low is located over S/C AR. Visible imagery at 16Z already showed notable CU development across the area with several cloud streets across C/S AL, Srn MS, and the FL panhandle. Several boundaries were noted (far too many to mention, many probably left over from previous convection outside of the area). A more notable one extends along the I-20/59 corridor from JAN to MEI to TCL to BHM. A more substantial mass of clouds exists along and ahead of a MCS over W/C LA. An MCV was noted with this system near Fort Polk on both IR and Visible satellite and becomes even more obvious on regional radar imagery. Thermodynamically, things are in much better shape than they have been earlier this week. We've been unstable, but quite capped. Today, that isn't as much the case. The 12Z KIX sounding indicated only fairly weak capping around H9 and between H7 and H8. A CAPE of 1000 j/kg and an LI -4.6 isn't bad for a morning sounding either. Convective temp using SPC's NSHARP analysis is only 79 F. We will have no problem reaching that today. Using this actual sounding to check initialization on the RUC soundings - the RUC soundings look quite decent. 15Z RUC sounding 00hrs for MOB also initialized with weak capping in the same locations and a dry slot between about H6 and H8. 1530 j/kg and -6.5 LI may or may not be slightly overdone. There is some notable directional shear as well. Present Meso-A already shows us in a favorable environment for tstorm activity, with MUCAPEs on the order of 1500-2000 j/kg and LIs around -5. Surface-based lapse rates were just over 6, but we should see these increase throughout the day as we warm at the surface. Elevated lapse rates are already over 7. Short Term(through Saturday)... With good model agreement coming into focus and this finally becoming more of a nowcasting event, will go with high-end likely PoPs for tonight. Slight risk in place today with 2% tor/15% hail/15% wind. Previous forecast already mentioned strong storms in the detailed forecast; will continue with this and enhance wording slightly more for potential threats. Models are slightly quicker with fropa, with the NAM and GFS showing no QPF after 12Z. With an area of higher winds rounding our upper level trough around that time, see no reason the front won't get on out. Will continue to stagger a 20 PoP early, though... just for the first few hours of the period. Skies should clear through the day, as subsidence increases with high pressure building in. Long Term(Sunday through Tuesday)... Devoted very little time to the extended portion of the forecast, with primary focus on the next 12-24 hours. Our next system is supposed to approach the area by late Tue/early Wed. I'm not entirely convinced that it will be here as soon as the GFS says, and given that I didn't spend a lot of time worrying over that particular detail, I will not add PoPs to the end of the forecast attm, but instead defer to later shifts to reevaluate Equipment note: KMOB WSR-88D has been experiencing equipment malfunction this morning. WFO Mobile is unsure how reliable the radar will be throughout this evening and into tonight. If KMOB radar goes down, KLIX will be the only available radar covering Mobile, because KEVX is still down. Consult FTMMOB for the latest information.

Hazardous Weather

Through tonight: Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms A cold front will approach the Mobile area late tonight night. Ahead of it, warm, moist unstable air will set the stage for thunderstorm development late this afternoon into the evening hours. Thunderstorms that develop and move across the area will be capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts. Also, there is the potential for a few isolated tornadoes. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the area under a slight risk of severe thunderstorms for this afternoon and tonight. Persons across the Mobile area should stay tuned to a good source of weather information and be prepared to act quickly should severe weather threaten their area. Saturday through Tuesday: No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Astronomical and Climatological Data
Moon Phase Half Full (Waning) Sunset 7:24 PM Sunrise 6:18 AM	04/22/06 Normal High Record High Normal Low Record Low Temperature 79°F 92°F (1987) 56°F 42°F (1993) April Normal Wettest Driest Precipitation 5.06 in. 17.69 in. (1955) 0.08 in. (1999)

Thursday Evening Forecast

Forecast Issued by Robert Frye on 04/20/2006 at 3:07:52 pm CT

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Tonight	Tomorrow	Saturday	Sunday	Monday
	84°F	83°F	85°F	86°F
66°F		65°F	60°F	58°F
S 5-10 mph	S 5-10 mph G 15 mph	NW 5-10 mph G 15 mph	VAR 3-6 mph	S 5-10 mph
10%	40%	10%	0%	0%

Detailed Forecast

Tonight… Partly cloudy. Low 66. Winds south 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 10 percent. Tomorrow... Scattered thunderstorms. High 84. Winds south 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph. Chance of rain is 40 percent. Friday Night... Scattered thunderstorms. Low 65. Winds south 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph. Chance of rain is 40 percent. Saturday... Partly cloudy. High 83. Winds northwest 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph. Chance of rain is 10 percent. Saturday Night... Mostly clear. Low 60. Winds variable 3-6 mph. Sunday... Sunny. High 85. Winds variable 3-6 mph. Sunday Night... Mostly clear. Low 58. Winds south 3-6 mph. Monday... Mostly sunny. High 86. Winds south 5-10 mph. Monday Night... Mostly clear. Low 60. Winds south 1-4 mph.

Technical Discussion

Short Term (Thursday through Saturday): A weak system will move through the area on your Fri. Increased POPs to 40 for the time frame. Also issued a HWO for the chances of SVR. SPC has the area in a "SLT RISK" for severe weather. Main concern will be Large Hail and Strong winds. As far as rainfall goes I wish I had better news. QPF values are only .25-.5 and that's pushing it I'm afraid. Most of the heavier precip will remain just slightly north of the area. Because of the dry spring we've had there is concern for slick roads when it does rain. (The oils on the roads will be very slick). Put wording in HWO for that concern also. Long Term (Sunday through Monday): Behind the system we'll see some CAA in the MOB area. Little dryer air and cooler overnight lows. Highs, however, will not be affect much from this system. Enjoy the dry air while you can because in a few weeks we'll be begging for the dry air.

Hazardous Weather

The Storm Prediction Center has outlined the area in a slight risk for Friday. The main threat with this system is going to be large hail and damaging winds. Brief periods of heavy rain may also be possible. Drive carefully! The area has not received much rain this spring so any rain will cause the roads to become very slick and hazardous.

Astronomical and Climatological Data
Moon Phase Half Full (Waning) Sunset 7:24 PM Sunrise 6:19 AM	04/21/06 Normal High Record High Normal Low Record Low Temperature 79°F 94°F (1987) 56°F 43°F (1953) April Normal Wettest Driest Precipitation 5.06 in. 17.69 in. (1955) 0.08 in. (1999)

Thursday Morning Forecast

Forecast Issued by Randy Bowers on 04/19/2006 at 11:48:57 pm CT

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Today	Friday	Saturday	Sunday	Monday
87°F	85°F	84°F	84°F	86°F
	68°F	67°F	56°F	57°F
S 5 mph	SW 5-10 mph	SW 5-10 mph	VAR 5 mph	S 5-10 mph
10%	20%	30%	0%	0%

Detailed Forecast

Today... Areas of fog in the morning. Otherwise, partly cloudy. High 87. Winds south at around 5 mph. Thursday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 68. Winds south at around 5 mph. Friday... Partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon. High 85. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Friday Night... Partly to cloudy with a chance of thunderstorms. Low 67. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 30 percent. Saturday... A chance of thunderstorms, mainly in the morning. Otherwise, mostly cloudy early with partial clearing during the afternoon. High 84. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 30 percent. Saturday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 56. Winds variable 5 mph. Sunday... Partly cloudy. High 84. Winds variable 5 mph. Sunday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 57. Winds variable 5 mph. Monday... Partly cloudy. High 86. Winds south 5-10 mph.

Technical Discussion

One concern earlier this evening was that activity over central Alabama would be able to generate a substantial enough cold pool, with time, to begin propagating more quickly southward/southeastward. Thus far, this has not happened. The thought was that even if it were to happen, it would propagate with mean flow and remain near parallel to NW-to-SE oriented surface boundary which was located well to our east and thus not being much of a threat to Mobile. Latest trends are for a more westward building of convection behind a westward propagating outflow boundary. Despite stabilizing boundary layer, thunderstorms should continue to develop behind this westward moving outflow boundary through the evening and into the overnight --likely becoming increasingly more elevated in nature. Believe this process will continue long enough for convective cluster to at least reach a Carrollton, to Camden, to Enterprise line. Believe with decrease in instability as a result of nocturnal cooling that westward moving boundary will become less and less effective at convective generation as time goes by. Rather substantial low level temperature inversion has developed along the coast this evening, evident on KMOB 88d with AP returns oriented parallel to the coast. Inversion was not yet evident at 00z on the KLIX sounding and has likely only recently strengthened with nocturnal cooling of the boundary layer now well underway. Fog formation is a concern later tonight with strong inversion coupled with light winds and T/Td spread rather small. Will mention fog for the first part of period one. Forecast for the next few days will weigh heavily on the behavior of diurnal convective development invof boundaries and their effect on said boundaries. Additionally, convectively generated boundaries will also be a factor as sfc/near sfc winds will likely prove insufficient to displace /mix out/ these outflow boundaries. This is very much a summer-like pattern with weak ridging aloft resulting in relatively light winds throughout the column. Unseasonably warm temperatures will continue as well with near record highs once again tomorrow. Will forecast a high one degree below the record which is still slightly above MOS consensus but seems reasonable given ridging aloft and similar thickness and sky cover as today. Only concern with respect to temperatures would be if clouds were a little more prevalent limiting insolation. This seems to be the cause for MOS' somewhat cooler temperatures. For now will forecast partial sky cover and go slightly above MOS for consistency sake, if nothing else. Synoptically, NAM shows a weak perturbation at H5 passes just north of Mobile during peak heating tomorrow. Thinking any convection will be focused just north of the city and will only go with a silent 10 PoP attm. A more substantial wave crosses the area Fri night/Sat. An associated cold front attempts to make it to Mobile and per coordination with pervious shift, models were considerably more aggressive with sfc features in the 12z run. New 00z run seems comparatively aggressive and am apt to buy into this. Regardless, even without full fropa, diurnal convection along and ahead of front would likely be enough to justify the going PoPs in the forecast. In fact, going PoPs may be on the low side but will not alter as of yet given lack of confidence in surface features, timing, and effect of more recent convective activity. Beyond Saturday, surface ridge takes over with a slight releif from heat and humidity. Deep moisture shifts east with progression of mid/upper trough and PWAT values fall substantially despite some lingering low level moisture. Therefore, will leave PoPs out beyond Saturday. 0-6km shear of AOA 30 kts should be enough to favor some storm organization late Fri into early Sat. Additionally, at least marginal lapse rates and weak to moderate instability may favor intense convective updrafts. Isolated severe multi-cells seems possible with trough passage late Fri into Sat, but given pulse-like nature due to vertical/near-vertical updrafts, any severe events will likely be marginal hail or wind, and brief. Will mention this in the HWO product. Generally kept the same theme as going forecast with only a few changes, mainly to PoPs and wording for timing. Also, the introduction of HWO highlighting isolated marginal severe threat Fri-Sat. I stuck close to MOS, though I discounted FWC's low temperature for second period as Tds initialized way to low and remain way to low through the forecast period. For second period temperatures, went with MET.

Hazardous Weather

A weak weather system will pass through the area late Friday into early Saturday. Although some rainfall is expected, this system is not expected to bring widespread relief to the dry conditions as not everyone will see rain. The rain is expected to come in the form of isolated to scattered thunderstorms beginning as early as Friday afternoon and lasting until late Saturday morning. A few of these storms may become rather intense and produce hail and gusty winds. An isolated severe thunderstorm with large hail and damaging winds cannot be ruled out. Although the severe weather threat is not particularly high, persons in the Mobile area are encouraged to remain alert and monitor the weather conditions between now and Saturday. You should be ready to take action in order protect life and property should severe weather threaten your area.

Astronomical and Climatological Data
Moon Phase Half Full (Waning) Sunrise 6:20 AM Sunset 7:24 PM	04/20/06 Normal High Record High Normal Low Record Low Temperature 78°F 88°F (1968) 56°F 40°F (1953) April Normal Wettest Driest Precipitation 5.06 in. 17.69 in. (1955) 0.08 in. (1999)

Wednesday Evening Forecast

Forecast Issued by Justin Gibbs on 04/19/2006 at 4:01:21 pm CT

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Tonight	Tomorrow	Friday	Saturday	Sunday
	87°F	85°F	82°F	84°F
67°F		66°F	62°F	60°F
SW 5-10 mph	S 5-10 mph	SW 5-10 mph	NW 5-10 mph	SW 5-10 mph
0%	0%	20%	30%	0%

Detailed Forecast

Tonight… Partly cloudy, with patchy fog after 3 a.m. Low 67. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Tomorrow... Partly cloudy. High 87. Winds south 5-10 mph. Thursday Night... Increasing Cloudiness. Low 66. Winds south 5-10 mph. Friday... Partly Cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. High 85. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Friday Night... Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low 62. Winds south 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 30 percent. Saturday... Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. High 82. Winds northwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 30 percent. Saturday Night... Mostly clear. Low 60. Winds northwest 5-10 mph. Sunday... Partly cloudy. High 84. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Sunday Night... Mostly clear. Low 60. Winds southwest 5-10 mph.

Technical Discussion

Forecast Discussion (Wednesday through Sunday): Right Now... At the surface a ridge is centered over the Northwestern Carribean with an axis streching northwest into the northcentral Gulf...as a sfc cyclone positiosn itself across northern Alabama. Ridging/Zonal flow persists over the northcentral Gulf coast...allowing for another hot and humid day--with moderate southerly flow and continued moisture/warm air advection. Low level moisture ribbon exists as indicated by WV imagery and KLIX/KJAN/KCRP 12z sounding from about 800mb to essentially the surface...this has allowed for continued low/mid level clouds in the daytime heating. Downstream, vertically stacked closed low is centered over eastern South Dakota. Short Term... Impacts of sfc storm system over NRN AL/MS are expected to remain well north of the MOB area. Sfc ridging and a building ridge between 700/850mb have led to meager lapse rates and a large negative area on RUC soundings...this is echoed to some degree on KLIx 12z observed sounding and appears reasonable given handling of features aloft and actual wx. We look to remain in a light to moderate southerly flow for the next 24-36 hours ahead of our next sfc storm system this weekend. Td's continue to creep upward and MOS/going forecast low of 67 looks on target. SCT/BKN cloud coverage will likely persist to some degree even into the overnight hours. Fog will again be an issue as dewpoint depressions look to drop to 0/1 in the overnight hours with a light south wind. Thursday ridging continues to build in aloft with a bit of moisture still lingering at the lowest mandatory levels. MOS seems to cool us up quite a bit due to cloud cover. Given the extremely dry air just above 800mb do not believe we will see QUITE the coverage that is advertised as lower levels should mix enough to prevent full overcast so will continue with the going forecast high of 87 which is MOS consensus blend +1. Thursday night s/wv approaches from the west and moisture begins to build throughout the column...guidance brings us to nearly full overcast by 6-12z but will for now just slide the well suited "increasing cloudiness" ("punt") forward a period as that will most likely best describe what occurs with coverage building from 2/10 to around 6/10 by morning. Long Term... Guidance has shifted considerably today in the 12z suite of products as the upper level s/wv and assocaited sfc cyclone are now nearly 15 hours faster. 18z data also suggests a much faster solution with simliar FROPA timing to the 12z data. HPC suggests this solution is plausible to likely given the initialization of the system. WV imagery also indicates 12z guidance (esp NAM) has performed well with the positioning of the system through the first 9 hours of the model run. Will basically just slide everything up a period with 20 pops returning to the forecast on Friday and going 30/30 Fri/Sat leaving Sat evening dry. Am inclined to go a bit higher given the airmass ahead of the frontal system...with plentiful deep moisture and a relatively unstable overall airmass. However, given questions that obviously persist regarding timing will hold to our going 30s and later shifts can make adjustments as forecast confidence increases. System looks to have a minimal intrusion on our airmass at this latitude as a ridge quickly builds in behind the front swinging our winds back from the southwest and back into WAA pattern. Ridge builds in aloft and it looks as was previously mentioned we will return to tempeartures just above seasonal norms for next week. Will actually bump going forecast highs up a degree given substantial increase in mandatory heights indicated in 12/18z data.

Hazardous Weather

No hazardous weather is expected through the forecast period.

Wednesday Morning Forecast

Forecast Issued by Daniel Lamb on 04/19/2006 at 12:19:13 am CT

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Today	Thursday	Friday	Saturday	Sunday
88°F	87°F	86°F	85°F	82°F
	67°F	66°F	64°F	63°F
SW 5-10 mph	S 5-10 mph	S 5-10 mph	SW 5-10 mph	N 5 mph
0%	0%	0%	30%	0%

Detailed Forecast

Today... Patches of fog early. Otherwise, mostly sunny. High around 88. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Wednesday Night... Partly cloudy with patchy fog possible late. Low around 67. Winds southwest 3-8 mph. Thursday... Partly cloudy. High around 87. Winds south 5-10 mph. Thursday Night... Partly cloudy. Low around 66. Winds south 5-10 mph. Friday... Increasing cloudiness. High around 86. Winds south 5-10 mph. Friday Night... Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly late. Low around 64. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Saturday... Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. High around 85. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 30 percent. Saturday Night... Partly cloudy. Low around 63. Winds northwest around 5 mph. Sunday... Partly cloudy. High around 82. Winds north around 5 mph.

Technical Discussion

Analysis... All is quiet on the home front after our second straight day of record-setting heat in Mobile. Tuesday's high was 90 (like we said it would be), which beat the old record of 88 which dated back to 1967. Right now we're still hanging on to the influence of a ridge of high pressure, which is now centered east of Cuba. A stationary front NE of us extends along a line from about MKL to BHM to AUO to VLD. Earlier today, several showers and thunderstorms fired up along this boundary, esp farther north in AL, but those of died out with the loss of daytime heating. Up above, flow is mostly zonal, but there is some slight ridging just to our west, and north. 00Z sounding from LIX was rather unstable with a CAPE of 811 j/kg and a LI of -2 C, but was extremely dry above 850mb (PWAT of 0.96") and capped from there up to around 600mb. Short Term (through Thursday) Briefly, will keep mention of morning fog in the detailed forecast. Tues, KMOB's visib was <1 mi for over an hour. with light winds and mostly clear skies overnight, we should see the same around daybreak and possibly again Wed night. Still going to be a mostly temp/sky cover forecast in the short term. Model frcst soundings are pretty persistent in keeping a lid on any convection through Thursday, despite increased instability. 00Z runs initiated fairly well, although there are some issues with the amount of moisture in the upper levels and location/placement of it. Front basically hangs out to our north, with shortwaves riding along it through 00Z Fri. While our proximity to the front, ample surface moisture, and instability should traditionally help us out, capping inversion appears to hang tough over the area. Forecast soundings/progged CIN values remain unfavorable for penetrative convection through Thursday. Convective temp on Tues was in the mid 90s, far out of reach. This will change some with each passing day, but not enough to make a huge difference. Temps... went on the high end of the MOS spectrum, b/c I think MAV has a better handle of sky cover. Blv we'll at least tie a record at MOB, but not all areas of the city will get that warm with the influence of the sea breeze. Long Term (Friday through Sunday) The going forecast looks pretty good. Stationary boundary will retreat farther north before Friday, as low pressure system tracks across the Ohio Valley. Frontal timing is always a difficult quandary, but I believe previous forecasts had it timed well - sometime during the day Saturday. H5 winds rounding the base of an upper trough should help make sure fropa occurs around this general timeframe. By the time of the approach of our front, PWATs will be slightly higher and most of the column should be relatively moist. Lapse rates won't be incredibly impressive, but there will be some instability. Friday looks dry to me - no more lingering boundaries nearby during the day, not warm enough to bust the cap. Friday night is when we must begin to ponder POPs. Right now it appears most of the activity will occur during the first part of the Saturday period, but cannot rule out activity overnight Friday either. So, will bump up POPs Fri night to 20. I like the 30 POP on Saturday. Fropa should occur before 00Z, so will trend POPs down Sat night from prvs forecast. With weak instability in place, any storms that occur along the front could be strong, but given overall lack of uncertainty about the entire event, will defer on a hazardous weather discussion for now. Sunday should be dry. It doesn't appear the front will have a heavy impact on temperatures. Sunday's high may still be above seasonal norms.

Hazardous Weather

No hazardous weather is expected through the forecast period.

Tuesday Evening Forecast

Forecast Issued by Robert Frye on 04/18/2006 at 2:39:12 pm CT

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Tonight	Tomorrow	Thursday	Friday	Saturday
	88°F	87°F	86°F	85°F
65°F		66°F	65°F	66°F
S 5-10 mph	S 5-10 mph	S 5-10 mph	SW 5-10 mph	S 5-10 mph G 15 mph
0%	0%	0%	10%	30%

Detailed Forecast

Tonight… Periods of fog. Low 65. Winds south 5-10 mph. Tomorrow... Partly cloudy. High 88. Winds south 5-10 mph. Wednesday Night... Periods of fog. Low 66. Winds south 5-10 mph. Thursday... Partly cloudy. High 87. Winds south 5-10 mph. Thursday Night... Mostly clear. Low 65. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Friday... Partly cloudy. High 86. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 10 percent. Friday Night... Mostly cloudy. Low 66. Winds south 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 10 percent. Saturday... Chance of thunderstorms. High 85. Winds south 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph. Chance of rain is 30 percent. Saturday Night... Chance of thunderstorms. Low 65. Winds south 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 30 percent.

Technical Discussion

Short Term (Tuesday through Thursday evening): For the short term we can expect much of the same. A weak front is positioned over western GA and parts of the FL panhandle. Don't think that will cause much for our area. Temps are going to be the main concentration for the short term. (Same old Same old.) MAX temps look to stay in the upper 80's for most inland areas and more in the mid 80's as you head closer to the coast. Mins will fall into the 60's overnight. Water temps in the gulf should also be on the rise. Water temps range mainly in the lower to even mid 70's for most of the coastal areas. Long Term (Friday through Saturday): A disturbance looks to bring a "chance" of Showers or maybe a storm this weekend. Went with a 10% POPs for Friday just in case; however, kept a 30% POP in for Sat. QPF values on the GFS isn't giving much hope for the area but at this time we will take ANYTHING! Have cooled temps slightly given the chance of rain for Saturday.

Hazardous Weather

No hazardous weather is expected through the forecast period.

Tuesday Morning Forecast

Forecast Issued by Justin Gibbs on 04/18/2006 at 1:42:04 am CT

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Today	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday
90°F	89°F	87°F	87°F	85°F
	69°F	68°F	67°F	66°F
SW 5-10 mph	SW 5-10 mph	SW 5-10 mph	SW 10-20 mph	S 10-20 mph
0%	0%	10%	10%	30%

Detailed Forecast

Today... Partly cloudy. High 90. . Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Tuesday Night... Mostly clear. Low 69. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Wednesday... Mostly sunny. High 89. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Wednesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 68. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Thursday... Partly cloudy. High 87. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 10 percent. Thursday Night... Mostly clear. Low 67. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Friday... Partly cloudy. High 87. Winds southwest 10-20 mph. Chance of rain is 10 percent. Friday Night...Partly cloudy with a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Low 66. Winds southwest 5 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Saturday... Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. High 85. Winds south 10-20 mph.

Technical Discussion

"Forecast Discussion (Tuesday through Saturday): Right Now... Region lies to the south of a frontal boundary analyzed across NRN MS/NRN AL/NRN GA this hour. Our primary sfc influence comes from a ridge centered over Cuba. Ridging exists from 700/300mb with an axis running roughly across MO/AR/LA. Wv imagery indicates a bit of moisture to our west pushing eastward. KLIX/KJAN/KCRP 0z soundings reveal this layer of moisture runs from 750-900mb roughly. Short Term... Narrow low level moisture is the main focus of this forecast package. MOS again is calling for clear skies...but with substantial sfc heating...and what appears to be a very thin band of moisture that isnt particuarly well handled in guidance will go Partly cloudy to allow for a 3-4 p.m. timeframe where we may sneak towards the 5/10--6/10 coverage range...much as we did today. Temperatures are a bit of a bear...we managed to break a record high Monday at 89 degrees...and tomorrow leans towards much of the same. We will start the day with rather substantial sun coverage and this should persist until we get very near another record high mark. Seabreeze played a bit of a role today as a boundary shot north around 2 p.m...with similar conditions today this will again be an issue. Will go with going forecast which agrees well with MOS calling for another record breaking day with a high of 90 degrees. This however likely will not be achieved immediately south of the city where a seabreeze is likely to set up by early afternoon. We stay mild in the overnight...will bump going high up 1 degree to match today's slightly warmer than MOS overnight low. We remain zonal aloft with light southwesterly sfc flow through Wednesday where another substantially warm day appears likely. Long Term... Beyond that ridge really begins to set up shop at all mandatory levels ahead of an approaching shortwave trof. Weak pertubation builds over the Lower MS VLY Thursday and pushes eastward while weakening. Guidance is indicating a bit of QPF with this event with an slight increase in deep moisture. Very little if any sfc translation remains with this event by the time it nears the MOB area...and with an increasingly strong ridge to our southeast...it appears rather unlikely we will get in on this activity. Instability values with rather meager lapse rates are marginal at best...and upper level support is for the most part lacking. Will leave the going 10 pop in however in response to marginal isentropic ascent indicated on 300k NAM plot. Feel later shifts can likely safely remove this but for now feel it most prudent to stay the course given a bit of questions regarding the strength and timingof the s/wv responsible. Friday/Saturday continue to watch approaching sfc cylcone and frontal boundary. Will continue to play the slow down game with this feature...will taper down the Friday period pops and provide most pcpn emphasis on the Saturday period. Low/Mid level windfields are not overly supportive of a full frontal passage...additionally strong ridging remains intact ahead of this system. At very least the system will have a lot to work against as it makes an EWD trek. Later shifts may need to slow the system down even further...but for now it appears we will see a roughly 0z Sunday frontal passage...with prefrontal convection throughout the day (Very similar to last week) however at the current time it appears the robustness of this convection may be rather limited as instability parameters are not as favorable for severe convection as they were during last Saturday's event. However, the potential at this point still exists for the possibility of strong thunderstorms...and possibly an isolated severe storm. Will not mention in HWO this package but later shifts may need to update to highlight SVR ptnl. "

Hazardous Weather

No hazardous weather is expected through the forecast period.

Monday Evening Forecast

Forecast Issued by Michael Leach on 04/17/2006 at 4:22:31 pm CT

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Tonight	Tomorrow	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday
	90°F	89°F	87°F	87°F
68°F		68°F	68°F	67°F
WSW 5-10 mph	SW 5-10 mph	SW 5-10 mph	SW 5-10 mph	SW 5-10 mph
0%	0%	0%	10%	20%

Detailed Forecast

Tonight… Partly cloudy. Low around 68. Winds west-southwest 5-10 mph. Tomorrow... Mostly sunny. Record high temperature possible. High near 90. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Tuesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low around 68. Winds southwest 3-8 mph. Wednesday... Partly cloudy. Record high temperature possible. High around 89. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Wednesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low near 68. Winds southwest 3-8 mph. Thursday... Partly cloudy. High near 87. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 10 percent. Thursday Night... Partly cloudy. Low around 68. Winds southwest 3-8 mph. Friday... Partly cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms. High near 87. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 20%. Friday Night... Partly cloudy with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low around 67. Winds south 3-8 mph. Chance of rain is 20%.

Technical Discussion

Short Term (Through Wednesday): First of all, I would like to apologize for the last issuance of this forecast package (been working very hard on a lab for one of my meteorology classes). A very warm (make that hot) afternoon today, with KMOB at least tying the record high of 88 for this date. KMOB reported 88 at 19z on the hourly observation, and it is possible that the actual high could be a degree or so warmer. For the short term, the main concern is temperatures. Record highs of 88 for both Tuesday and Wednesday are in jeopardy. MAV guidance shows a high of 90 for Tuesday, while MET shows a high of 91. Both MAV and MET show a high of 89 for Wednesday. Will forecast a high of 90 tomorrow and 89 Wednesday at KMOB, which would break the record for both dates if they verify. Otherwise, through the short term, dry conditions will persist as area remains under upper level ridge, keeping storm track to the north. Long Term (Thursday and Friday): Upper level ridge begins to break down a bit by Thursday, but a weak upper level ridge should remain over the area through at least Friday. However, a few pertubations in the flow will move across the region, especially on Friday and into the weekend. Some PVA could occur with these small shortwave troughs, which could lead to a little more lifting over the area. Some negative omega values approach the area on Friday, but are more pronounced just to the north and west of the area. A weak WAA pattern should continue over the region through the long term period. SHRA/TSRA chances will increase slightly by the end of the week with a little more lifting over the area. However, models indicate the most moisture and lift to the north and west of the area closer to a strong closed upper level low moving through the Great Lakes Region, and a stronger shortwave trough moving across the mid-South region. Will keep PoP's at 10% for Thursday, and 20% for Friday at this time. It is interesting to note that the Day 4-8 Outlook from SPC places the western and central Gulf Coast Region in a risk for severe thunderstorms starting on Friday, and lasting through Saturday. This could be a case where only isolated thunderstorms form, but any storms that do develop could be strong. Will not mention anything in the HWO at this time, as model timing and continuity is still lacking a bit for this period. But we'll keep our eyes on it.

Hazardous Weather

No hazardous weather is expected through the forecast period.

Sunday Night Forecast

Forecast Issued by Randy Bowers on 04/16/2006 at 3:11:38 pm CT

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Tonight	Tomorrow	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday
	85°F	88°F	87°F	85°F
65°F		66°F	68°F	68°F
SW 5 mph	SW 5-10 mph	SW 5-10 mph	SW 5-10 mph	S 5-10 mph
0%	0%	0%	0%	10%

Detailed Forecast

Tonight… Partly cloudy. Low 65. Winds southwest 5 mph. Tomorrow... Partly cloudy. High 85. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Monday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 66. Winds southwest 5 mph. Tuesday... Partly cloudy. Near record or record high temperatures. High 88. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Tuesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 68. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Wednesday... Partly cloudy. High 87. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Wednesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 68. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Thursday... Partly cloudy. High 85. Winds south 5-10 mph. Thursday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 66. Winds variable 5-10 mph.

Technical Discussion

CU field has formed parallel to the coast and inland to northern portions of Mobile and Baldwin Counties this afternoon. Temperatures have risen into the lower 80s and should rise another degree or two. Similar conditions anticipated into next week with little or no changes planned to going forecast package. Shortwave passing to the north today and will exit the east coast tomorrow. No impact is expected on our weather from this departing system. Behind departing wave, upper ridge strengthens into mid-week across the central gulf coast region as yet another trough takes shape over the northern plains by mid-week. Record high temperature looks to be achieved on Tuesday with all MOS exceeding or at least tying the old record value of 88. Beyond Tuesday, upper ridge begins to break down somewhat as the next system over the plains progresses eastward. ECMWF and GFS' motion of this next system may be too quick. GFS shows a cold front making it as far south as Mobile late Wednesday and generates some QPF along it. Feel this is way too aggressive and will look for better consistency or model agreement to back this up before introducing PoPs into the extended. Both models show trough evolving into a closed upper low which would favor the idea of a slower progression eastward. DGEX is nearly 24 hours slower than other medium range models with this system and prefer its solution. We will likely see other medium range models trend slower with this system in upcoming runs and come more inline with DGEX. Given these uncertainties, will leave the extended portion dry for now. This should be better resolved in later runs and an introduction of PoPs into mid/late week portion of the extended may be needed by later shifts. Regardless, some hope is seen by the weekend as a slightly more amplified pattern evolves and northwesterly flow aloft becomes established on the back side of the aforementioned departing system. Weak perturbations in this northwesterly flow aloft are seen in the medium range models and may help alleviate the dry conditions.

Hazardous Weather

No hazardous weather is expected through the forecast period.

Saturday Evening Forecast

Forecast Issued by Daniel Lamb/Randy Bowers on 04/15/2006 at 4:34:04 pm CT

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Tonight	Sunday	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday
	85°F	85°F	87°F	87°F
62°F		66°F	67°F	68°F
S 5-10 mph	S 5-15 mph G 20 mph	SW 5-10 mph	SW 5-10 mph	S 5-10 mph
0%	0%	0%	0%	0%

Detailed Forecast

Tonight… Mostly clear. Areas of patchy fog possible toward daybreak. Low around 62. Winds south 5-10 mph. Sunday... Mostly sunny. High around 85. Winds south 5-15 mph with gusts to 20 mph. Sunday Night... Partly cloudy. Low around 66. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Monday... Partly cloudy. High around 85. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Monday Night... Partly cloudy. Low around 67. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Tuesday... Partly cloudy. High around 87. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Tuesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low around 68. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Wednesday... Partly cloudy. High around 87. Winds south 5-10 mph. Wednesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low around 67. Winds light and variable.

Technical Discussion

Analysis... Our surface high isn't very far away from where it was this time yesterday - still over the Nrn GOM, just slightly farther east and southeast and ever so slightly weaker. After bottoming out in the mid 50s this morning, temperatures have rebounded well into the low 80s this afternoon, with the help of insolation and some gusty southerly winds advecting warmer air off the Gulf. The increased southerly winds are in response to the tightening pressure gradient we alluded to yesterday, between our high pressure and the low pressure INVOF Ern CO/Wrn KS. Short Term (through tomorrow)... Upper level flow becomes more zonal over the next couple of days, with an area of enhanced upper winds moving over/to the north of the area on Sunday. High pressure will continue to dominate at the surface, and we will continue to be on the WAA side of it. During this period, moisture return will continue to be decent at the surface; however with no triggers, it's only good for hot sticky air in the middle of the afternoon. Will probably need to mention patchy fog tonight. Last night, surface winds never completely decoupled, but we still saw some patchy fog around KMOB. Temps... MOS performed miserably on overnight lows yesterday. Nothing has changed since yesterday synoptically, but forecast thicknesses are increasing from this morning to Sunday morning, so this is my justification for not sticking a 55 in for the forecast low tonight. But, will definitely undercut MOS by a couple degrees. Previous forecast for tonight was already below MOS, so a minor adjustment from that. Blv that highs are okay through the short term period. Preliminarily appears that we were a bit over on this afternoon's high, but the current forecast only shows a gradual increase in highs each day, so the temp forecast will be in decent shape with only minor adjustments. -DL Long Term (Monday through Wednesday)... A rather weak trough early in the week should not have much of an influence on MOB's weather as most of the energy remains north. However, models seem to have trended a little stronger and show it deepening as it exits the east coast. GFS is more aggressive than NAM with the southward push of an associated NW-to-SE oriented surface boundary into central and southeast Alabama late Tue. Neither model generates any significant QPF along this boundary. Only concern would be the unlikely event that ongoing MCS activity invof the Ohio and Tennessee River valleys may have an impact on cloud forecast, if nothing else. Mean flow would favor a southeastward propagation of possible MCS activity into Georgia. Still feel that overall little/no influence will be felt on our weather. With no intrusion of modified air from the north, expecting above normal temperatures and humid, summer like, conditions through the extended. Despite some amplification in the upper flow later in the week, storm track is expected to remain well north of the forecast area as has been the case for the spring season thus far. Given this, do not see any real chance of rain even beyond the forecast period into late week and perhaps even the weekend, attm. Temperatures are really the biggest concern in the extended portion, with record highs being approached in the early/mid-week timeframe. Record highs at KMOB ASOS are 88 on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. MEX has us at 88 on Tue and just below record values on Monday and Wednesday. For now, will keep temperatures just below record values but stay very close to MOS numbers. Thanks to NWS MOB for help with obtaining record high values for the dates mentioned above. -RB

Hazardous Weather

No hazardous weather is expected through the forecast period.

Friday Evening Forecast

Forecast Issued by Daniel Lamb on 04/14/2006 at 4:34:17 pm CT

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Tonight	Saturday	Sunday	Monday	Tuesday
	84°F	85°F	85°F	87°F
60°F		63°F	66°F	67°F
SW 5-10 mph	S 5-15 mph	S 5-15 mph	SW 5-10 mph	SW 5-10 mph
0%	0%	0%	0%	0%

Detailed Forecast

Tonight… Mostly clear. Low around 60. Winds southwest 5-10 mph becoming light and variable overnight. Saturday... Mostly sunny. High around 84. Winds south 5-15 mph. Saturday Night... Mostly cloudy. Low around 63. Winds south 5-10 mph. Sunday... Partly cloudy. High around 85. Winds south 5-15 mph. Sunday Night... Partly cloudy. Low around 66. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Monday... Partly cloudy. High around 85. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Monday Night... Partly cloudy. Low around 67. Winds west 5-10 mph. Tuesday... Partly cloudy. High around 87. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Tuesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low around 67. Winds light and variable.

Technical Discussion

Analysis... High pressure centered just off the coast continues to domainate our weather in the Port City. A balmy afternoon is underway, with temperatures topping out from the lower 80s closer to shore to mid 80s slightly farther inland. Visible satellite, surface observations, and/or a quick peek outside all verify 99.9% (don't test this value for accuracy) clear skies over Mobile. There is an area of high, wispy cirrus clouds along the Mississippi River, but nothing of any notable consequence. Short Term (Through Tomorrow)... High pressure slowly shifts off to the east over the next couple of days, emphasis placed on slowly. The NAM and GFS seem to be trending a bit farther south with the upper level jet late this weekend into early next week. Despite this, upper level trough still will not be well pronounced, and really flow looks to be almost zonal. Also, with limited moisture, PWAT values should remain low. However, given placement of jet, we may be in an area of some H5/H75 UVVs which could bring high cloudiness Saturday night into parts of the day Sunday. Believe this will preclude any significant fog development Sunday morning. Will see a steeper than usual pressure gradient between our high pressure ridge off the coast and the storm system raising havok in the Midwestern states. As a result, will bump up winds beginning on Saturday. Long Term (Sunday through Tuesday)... System well to our north pushes off the Northeast coast by Tuesday, but decent consensus from the global models that the associated cold front will not reach us as weak H5 ridging continues to hang tough over the area. I don't think it will go as far south as the GFS indicates (which still doesn't bring it this far south, but does bring associated convergence/forcing closer than most other models). All in all, it looks like precip will continue to be difficult to come by over the next five days. Temperatures will continue to increase. Will trend current forecast highs upward toward the end of the forecast period, but not go as high as MOS right now. Either way, increasingly warm weather looks to reign supreme through early next week. We're still watching hopefully another system that may approach the area toward the Wed-Thur timeframe. Whether or not this one will make it here remains to be seen.

Hazardous Weather

No hazardous weather is expected through the forecast period.

Thursday Night Forecast

Forecast Issued by Robert Frye on 04/13/2006 at 2:57:21 pm CT

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Tonight	Tomorrow	Saturday	Sunday	Monday
	83°F	83°F	84°F	85°F
60°F		63°F	64°F	65°F
SW 3-6 mph	S 5-10 mph	S 5-10 mph	SW 5-10 mph	S 5-10 mph
0%	0%	0%	0%	0%

Detailed Forecast

Tonight… Mostly clear. Low 60. Winds southwest 3-6 mph. Tomorrow... Mostly sunny. High 83. Winds south 5-10 mph. Friday Night... Clear. Low 63. Winds south 3-6 mph. Saturday... Partly cloudy. High 83. Winds south 5-10 mph. Saturday Night... Mostly clear. Low 64. Winds south 5-10 mph. Sunday... Partly cloudy. High 84. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Sunday Night... Mostly clear. Low 65. Winds south 5-10 mph. Monday... Partly cloudy. High 85. Winds south 5-10 mph. Monday Night... Mostly clear. Low 65. Winds south 3-6 mph.

Technical Discussion

Forecast Discussion (Thursday through Monday): A philosopher once said that you can talk for an hour and not say a word. Well, I feel like you can have a long discussion and not say a word also. The only thing I can say about the forecast for this period is NOTHING! Only a temp forecast. MAX temps should hang out in the lower to mid 80's. MIN temps will range from the lower 60's to the mid to even upper 60's. With lows in the 60's you better bet the humidity will be high also. Beach Forecasts look great. Water temps are warming into the lower 70's. Watch out for the UV indices near 10 or very high. You may also want to watch out for rip currents along the beaches of South Alabama, Mississippi, and Northwestern Florida.

Hazardous Weather

No rain in sight.

Thursday Morning Forecast

Forecast Issued by Randy Bowers on 04/13/2006 at 12:25:56 am CT

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Today	Friday	Saturday	Sunday	Monday
81°F	83°F	83°F	84°F	85°F
	57°F	61°F	63°F	63°F
VAR 5 mph	VAR 5-10 mph	SW 5-10 mph	SW 5-10 mph	S 5-10 mph
0%	0%	0%	0%	0%

Detailed Forecast

Today... Mostly sunny. High around 81. Winds variable 5 mph. Thursday Night... Mostly clear. Low around 57. Winds calm. Friday... Mostly sunny. High around 83. Winds variable 5 to 10 mph. Friday Night... Mostly clear. Low around 61. Winds south 5 to 10 mph. Saturday... Mostly sunny. High around 83. Winds southwest 5 to 10 mph. Saturday Night... Partly cloudy. Low around 63. Winds southwest 5 to 10 mph. Sunday... Partly cloudy. High around 84. Winds southwest 5 to 10 mph. Sunday Night... Partly cloudy. Low around 63. Winds southwest 5 to 10 mph. Monday... Partly cloudy. High around 85. Winds south 5 to 10 mph.

Technical Discussion

Surface ridge strengthens over the gulf coast over the next 24-48 hours and then gradually shifts east ahead of a weak shortwave that will approach this weekend. Models in agreement that most of the shortwave energy will pass just north of the forecast area by the weekend. Some timing differences noticed with the GFS being slightly faster than NAM. GFS brings surface boundary southward into northern AL / GA late Monday, but keeps QPF well north of the forecast area. Temperatures will be the main challenge for this forecast period. Going forecast seems to have a good handle on temperatures at this time and will not deviate much from previously disseminated forecast. One minor concern is potential for fog each night as Td depression decreases per MOS consensus the next two nights. For now will leave fog out of the forecast and let later shifts reevaluate. Beyond this forecast period, medium range models show a more pugnacious trough developing/deepening over the great lakes area by mid-week. GFS and DGEX both show fropa w/ QPF by Wednesday.

Hazardous Weather

No hazardous weather is expected through Monday.

Wednesday Evening Forecast

Forecast Issued by Justin Gibbs on 04/12/2006 at 3:15:53 pm CT

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Tonight	Tomorrow	Good Friday	Saturday	Easter Sunday
	82°F	83°F	84°F	85°F
57°F		59°F	60°F	60°F
S 5-10 mph	W 5-10 mph	SW 5-10 mph	SW 5-10 mph	S 5-10 mph
0%	0%	0%	0%	0%

Detailed Forecast

Tonight… partly cloudy with a few areas of fog towards daybreak. Low 57. Winds south 5-10 mph. Tomorrow... Partly cloudy. High 82. Winds west 5-10 mph. Thursday Night... Mostly clear. Low 59. Winds variable 5 mph. Good Friday... Sunny. High 83. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Friday Night... Mostly clear. Low 60. Winds south 5-10 mph. Saturday... Partly cloudy. High 84. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Saturday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 60. Winds south 5-10 mph. Easter Sunday... Partly cloudy. High 85. Winds south 5-10 mph. Sunday Night... Mostly clear. Low 59. Winds southwest 5-10 mph.

Technical Discussion

Forecast Discussion (Wednesday through Sunday): Right Now... Broad ridge continues to build and stretch se'wd from the Carolina coast. Trof axis last hour is analyzed roughtly from Hatiesburg...to Montgomery following then northeastward off the NC coast. Aloft ridging continues to build at essentially all mandatory levels. Only pertubation in the system this afternoon is a bit of mid-upper level moisture which was indicated between 600-400mb in the KJAN/KLIX 12z soundings. Short Term... Guidance doesn't have a good handle on things cloud cover wise this aftenroon as 12z suite indicates SKC across the board, and we are between 4/10 6/10 coverage at all area obs. WV imagery shows this area of moisture is largely being influenced by the 300/500mb windfields. Nw'ly flow aloft will slowly push this moisture offshore and aid in drying the column which should limit cloud cover in 12-24 hours but for now will go PC in the first 2-3 periods rather than guidance's suggested SKC solution to allow for this issue. This will have an attendant impact on going temperatures, will trim a bit from MOS (which has been 2-3 degrees too warm to begin with this week) in response to the cloudier forecast. We look to clear out beyond about 18z Thursday as the upper level flow becomes northwesterly and substantial ridging builds just off the northcentral Gulf coast. Temperatures are still a bit tricky as guidance has been running too warm even with reasonable WAA...a check of NAM/GFS projected heights aloft will be the main technique for determining temps this go around. Will trim from MOS Thursday as mentioned previously and go MOS -1 on Friday when heights rise just a bit. This matches the going forecast which was already cutting into the MOS numbers a bit. Long Term... Very weak upper level shortwave looks to slide through the forecast area Saturday night, will bump cloud cover up. With substantial sfc/low level ridging and a near complete absence of deep moisture see no reason to include PoPs. Extended temperatures are continuing to go higher guidance-wise, but will stick with the lower MOS-3/4 solution for extended temperatures as at this time I see no synoptic reason to raise temperatures 7-8 degrees from what we are experiencing today. Forecast remains pop free and may do so several periods beyond the scope of this current package, next chance of precip anywhere down the line looks to be Wed/Thu as a upper level shortwave digs into the ECNTRL conus.

Hazardous Weather

No hazardous weather is expected through the forecast period.

Wednesday Morning Forecast

Forecast Issued by Daniel Lamb on 04/12/2006 at 2:31:59 am CT

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Today	Thursday	Friday	Saturday	Sunday
80°F	82°F	83°F	84°F	84°F
	56°F	59°F	61°F	64°F
SE 5-10 mph	VAR 3-8 mph	S 5-10 mph	S 5-10 mph	S 5-10 mph
0%	0%	0%	0%	0%

Detailed Forecast

Today... Patches of fog early, then partly cloudy. High around 80. Winds southeast 5-10 mph. Wednesday Night... Mostly clear with areas of fog developing late. Low around 56. Winds light and variable. Thursday... Mostly sunny. High around 82. Winds variable around 5 mph. Thursday Night... Mostly clear. Low around 59. Calm wind. Friday... Mostly sunny. High around 83. Winds south 5-10 mph. Friday Night... Partly cloudy. Low around 61. Winds south 5-10 mph. Saturday... Partly cloudy. High around 84. Winds south 5-10 mph. Saturday Night... Partly cloudy. Low around 64. Winds south 5-10 mph. Sunday... Partly cloudy. High around 84. Winds south 5-10 mph.

Technical Discussion

Analysis... Surface high pressure centered off the New England coast continues its influence on our weather (or lack thereof). Currently, temps around the Mobile area range in the middle 50s with calm to very light winds under fair skies. There are a few mid to upper level clouds moving across the area, as indicated by latest IR imagery. Otherwise, we'd be in all-out radiational cooling mode. Honestly, with lower dewpoint depressions, I wouldn't be shocked if we saw some fog; however, I don't think it will be dense or widespread enough to justify playing it up much in the forecast. Will make brief mention for the early part of the first period. Discussion... Upper level ridge axis currently bisects the area. Through the forecast period, there is decent model consensus that we will remain under the influence of either upper level ridging or zonal flow aloft, with the active branch of the jet stream removed well to our north, shunting any developing systems away from us. So, this is going to be a mainly sky cover/temp forecast, with little in the way of sensible weather anticipated in the area over the next five days. Temp-wise, after things were a bit cooler than anticipated yesterday, will not stray too far from MOS for daytime highs. I believe we will see more of a shift in the wind from E to S around the base of our surface ridge during the day today, which should help get us a few degrees warmer than yesterday. Guidance has been a bit warm with overnight lows, so I will undercut MAV and MET a few degrees at night. As a matter of fact, the lower temp makes me fairly confident that we may have some patchy fog tonight, so will mention that in the forecast. Otherwise, see no reason to meddle with this forecast too much.

Hazardous Weather

No hazardous weather is expected through the forecast period.

Tuesday Night Forecast

Forecast Issued by Robert Frye on 04/11/2006 at 2:31:36 pm CT

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Tonight	Tomorrow	Thursday	Friday	Saturday
	81°F	82°F	82°F	83°F
57°F		58°F	61°F	63°F
S 5-10 mph	S 5-10 mph	Calm	SW 5-10 mph	S 3-6 mph
0%	0%	0%	0%	0%

Detailed Forecast

Tonight… Periods of fog. Low 57. Winds south 5-10 mph. Tomorrow... Partly cloudy. High 81. Winds south 5-10 mph. Wednesday Night... Periods of fog. Low 58. Winds south 3-6 mph. Thursday... Partly cloudy. High 82. Winds calm. Thursday Night... Mostly clear. Low 61. Winds calm. Friday... Mostly sunny. High 82. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Friday Night... Mostly clear. Low 63. Winds south 5-10 mph. Saturday... Partly cloudy. High 83. Winds south 3-6 mph. Saturday Night... Mostly clear. Low 65. Winds calm.

Technical Discussion

Forecast Discussion (Tuesday through Saturday): High pressure will be in control of our weather for the entire period. Decided not to break up short/long term because what you see is what you get. Temps will moderate with our southerly winds this week. Moisture levels will also be rising; however, without adequate lift we really don't see any chances of precip. Right now went with straight "zeros" across the board for POPs. Also min temps will moderate through the week as humidity levels increase. But as stated earlier no lift equals no much needed rain for the north-central gulf. As for a beach forecast everything is in order for a great week and even weekend. UV indices will be very high so make sure you wear sunscreen to protect yourself. Water temps will also increase into the lower 70's by the weekend.

Hazardous Weather

No hazardous weather is expected through the forecast period.

Tuesday Morning Forecast

Forecast Issued by Justin Gibbs on 04/11/2006 at 12:04:54 am CT

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Today	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday
81°F	81°F	82°F	83°F	84°F
	57°F	56°F	57°F	61°F
SE 5-10 mph	SE 5-10 mph	SE 5-10 mph	VAR 5 mph	S 5-10 mph
0%	0%	0%	0%	0%

Detailed Forecast

Today... Sunny. High 81. Winds southeast 5-10 mph. Tuesday Night... Clear. Low 57. Winds south 5 mph. Wednesday... Mostly sunny. High 81. Winds southeast 5-10 mph. Wednesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 56. Winds south 5-10 mph. Thursday... Partly cloudy. High 82. Winds southeast 5-10 mph. Thursday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 57. Winds variable 5 mph. Friday... Sunny. High 83. Winds variable 5 mph. Friday Night... Clear. Low 61. Winds south 5-10 mph. Saturday... Mostly sunny. High 84. Winds south 5-10 mph.

Technical Discussion

Forecast Discussion (Tuesday through Saturday): Right Now... Sfc/850mb ridge axis runs from KMSY/KATL/KMHX line this morning. MOB area lies almost directly under the axis last hour with very light winds being reported around the area. Aloft (700-250mb) ridge axis runs from KCRP/KDFW/KSGF putting the region in northerly flow. End result is a rather dry airmass this evening with sfc Tds in the low 50s...buoy reports indicate weekend frontal passage made it deep into the pool of moisture the gulf had been sustaining for some time. It likely will take a number of days to see substantial moisture return across the SERN CONUS following the latest intrusion. Short Term... Cloud cover will likely be sparse over the next 24 hours as we remain largely under the influence of ridging at the sfc and aloft with little moisture available. Will continue the going Sunny/Clear solution. Following the warmer MET MOS as it seems to have a better handle on the current situation across the northcentral Gulf coast...other guidance is calling for middle/upper 70s for highs through the week while we made it to 78 today at KMOB and with WAA continuing through the first and second period see no reason why we would be cooler on Tuesday. Going forecast also agrees with the warmer solution. Wednesday an upper level disturbance and an associated sfc cyclone eject from the central Plains. At this point guidance (GFS/UKMET/ECMWF/NAM) point towards strong ridging at the sfc and aloft just off the coast, but a few hint at the possibility of a weak shortwave encroaching on the area. However this feature is extremely weak and will simply go from Sunny to PC wording to reflect this systems apparent influence on our weather. Cloud cover likely will maximize Wednesday night when we see arguably the most active weather in the period...we may make it to ""mostly cloudy"" breifly before the afforementioned ridge becomes the dominant player in our weather pattern through the early portion of the holiday weekend. Long Term... Main forecast challenge regards timing of when sfc/upper level ridging firmly takes hold of our weather and the column fully dries after the shortwave passes through. NAM is a bit slower and doesnt clear everything out until around 0z Friday, wheras the GFS is more agressive and has things cleared out by 21z Thursday. Will go with a blend and return to M. Clear wording for the Thursday evening period, back to SKC through Fri. Saturday will go Mostly Sunny. Guidance shows another storm system working its way through from the Plains. Frontal system with this cyclone does not look to make its way through the forecast area cleanly at any point, but confidence is especially high that it will not influence our weather through the Saturday daypart, later shifts will likely have to tweak Sat eve/Sunday periods as this system becomes better resolved. Will continue going forecasters trend of warming things up just a touch each day due to weak WAA.

Hazardous Weather

No hazardous weather is expected through the forecast period.

Monday Night Forecast

Forecast Issued by Michael Leach on 04/10/2006 at 3:50:47 pm CT

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Tonight	Tomorrow	Wednesday	Thursday	Good Friday
	80°F	80°F	82°F	83°F
53°F		57°F	57°F	60°F
ESE 5-10 mph	SE 7-14 mph	SE 5-10 mph	SSE 5-10 mph	S 5-10 mph
0%	0%	0%	0%	0%

Detailed Forecast

Tonight… Clear. Low around 53. Winds east-southeast 5-10 mph. Tomorrow... Mostly sunny. High near 80. Winds southeast 7-14 mph. Tuesday Night... Mostly clear. Low around 57. Winds southeast 5 mph. Wednesday... Partly cloudy. High near 80. Winds southeast 5-10 mph. Wednesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low around 57. Winds light and variable. Thursday... Partly cloudy. High around 82. Winds south-southeast 5-10 mph. Thursday Night... Partly cloudy. Low near 60. Winds south 5 mph. Good Friday... Partly cloudy. High around 83. Winds south 5-10 mph. Friday Night... Partly cloudy. Low near 63. Winds south 5-10 mph.

Technical Discussion

Short Term (Tonight and Tuesday): Very nice afternoon today with current temperatures running in the mid to upper 70's and dewpoints in the mid 40's. With clear skies and relatively light winds, expect another seasonably cool night with lows in the lower 50's (around or slightly below normal). An area of high pressure in centered over the Mid-Atlantic states, ridging down into the Southeast. This will give us an east to southeasterly surface wind throughout the short term period. The surface high coupled with upper level ridging will continue the subsidence over the region. Very slight CAA at 850 will also aid in subsidence. Long Term (Wednesday Through Friday): Dry weather is expected to continue throughout the long term period. Upper level ridging and surface high pressure will dominate the region throughout the period. MEX guidance increases PoP's slightly to around 10% by the end of the period, but with no major shortwaves or vertical motion shown by models, will go with 0% PoP's throughout the long term at this time. Some slight WAA may begin by Thursday, but only a slight increase of clouds is expected at this time. Temperatures will warm slightly each day due to the slight WAA.

Hazardous Weather

No hazardous weather is expected through the forecast period.

Sunday Morning Forecast

Forecast Issued by Robert Frye on 04/09/2006 at 12:37:33 am CT

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Today	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday
75°F	76°F	77°F	78°F	80°F
	50°F	53°F	55°F	55°F
N 5-10 mph G 15 mph	E 3-6 mph	Calm	S 5-10 mph	S 5-10 mph
0%	0%	0%	0%	0%

Detailed Forecast

Today... Sunny. High 75. Winds north 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph. Sunday Night... Clear. Low 50. Winds north 5-10 mph. Monday... Sunny. High 76. Winds east 3-6 mph. Monday Night... Clear. Low 53. Winds east 3-6 mph. Tuesday... Mostly sunny. High 77. Winds calm. Tuesday Night... No data. Low 55. Winds calm. Wednesday... Partly cloudy. High 78. Winds south 5-10 mph. Wednesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 55. Winds south 5-10 mph. Thursday... Partly cloudy. High 80. Winds south 5-10 mph.

Technical Discussion

Forecast Discussion (Sunday through Thursday): CAA will continue in the MOB area today. After .34" of rain we have already started to dry out. Due to the dry air moving in our lows will drop overnight. We're talking down into the lower 50's or maybe upper 40's away from the city. As high pressure moves to our east on Tue we can expect a return flow for our Wed. Really boring as far as the weather goes for the next few days. Great beach weather if you are thinking about hitting up Gulf Shores or Dauphin Island. Water temps are in the upper 60's approaching lower 70's. Max temps will stay in the mid to upper 70's until Thursday when we think 80 is possible.

Hazardous Weather

No hazardous weather is expected through the forecast period.

Thursday Night Forecast

Forecast Issued by Robert Frye on 04/06/2006 at 3:18:39 pm CT

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Tonight	Tomorrow	Saturday	Sunday	Monday
	82°F	77°F	75°F	78°F
63°F		65°F	51°F	54°F
S 5-10 mph	S 10-15 mph	NE 10-15 mph	Calm	SE 5-10 mph
0%	30%	40%	0%	0%

Detailed Forecast

Tonight… Partly cloudy. Low 63. Winds south 5-10 mph. Tomorrow... Scattered thunderstorms. High 82. Winds south 10-15 mph. Chance of rain is 30 percent. Friday Night... Scattered thunderstorms. Low 65. Winds southwest 10-15 mph. Chance of rain is 40 percent. Saturday... Scattered thunderstorms. High 77. Winds northeast 10-15 mph. Chance of rain is 40 percent. Saturday Night... Periods of showers. Low 51. Winds north 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Sunday... Sunny. High 75. Winds calm. Sunday Night... Mostly clear. Low 54. Winds calm. Monday... Mostly sunny. High 78. Winds southeast 5-10 mph. Monday Night... Clear. Low 57. Winds southeast 5-10 mph.

Technical Discussion

Forecast Discussion (Thursday through Monday): Return flow continues ahead of a Strong Spring time storm that will move to the the north of the area Tomorrow Night. However, that doesn't mean we going to be left empty handed. Have put in 40 POPs for Tomorrow and Saturday. Latest model runs have shown that the chance of precip will hang around into your Sat; however, it should be on the light side. Due to the amount of instability we may also hear some thunder. Severe weather may be possible mainly north of the city as most of the wind dynamics and instability will be north into the Tennessee Valley. So with the rain can we expect some drought relief? Not really. QPF values are only .25-.5. However, in our case we'll take what we can get. After the system moves through Saturday CAA will start behind it. Lows will once again dip down into the upper 40's away from the city. Going with lows in the lower 50's and highs will remain warm in the 70's before we warm back up into the 80's again early next week.

Hazardous Weather

Thunderstorms are possible in the Mobile area Friday and Saturday. The Storm Prediction Center in Norman Oklahoma has placed the area in a Slight Risk for severe weather for your Friday. Main threats will be large hail and damaging winds; however, an isolated tornado could also spin up north of the city. Stay tuned to your NOAA weather radio for the latest on any warnings that may be issued from your National Weather Service.

Thursday Morning Forecast

Forecast Issued by Randy Bowers on 04/06/2006 at 12:04:52 am CT

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Today	Friday	Saturday	Sunday	Monday
81°F	81°F	79°F	76°F	76°F
	63°F	66°F	52°F	51°F
S 10-15 mph G 20 mph	S 10-15 mph G 20 mph	S 10-15 mph	N 10 mph	NE 5-10 mph
0%	0%	40%	0%	0%

Detailed Forecast

Today... Partly cloudy. High 81. Winds south 10-15 mph with gusts to 20 mph. Thursday Night... Partly cloudy with fog developing. Low 63. Winds south 10 mph. Friday... Areas of fog in the morning. Otherwise, partly cloudy. High 81. Winds south 10-15 mph with gusts to 20 mph. Friday Night... Mostly cloudy with a chance of thunderstorms. Low 66. Winds south 10-15 mph with gusts to 20 mph. Chance of rain is 40 percent. Saturday... Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms through early afternoon. Then clearing. High 79. Winds south 10-15 mph. Chance of rain is 40 percent. Saturday Night... Mostly clear. Low 52. Winds north 10 mph. Sunday... Sunny. High 76. Winds north 10 mph. Sunday Night... Clear. Low 51. Winds northeast 5-10 mph. Monday... Mostly sunny. High 76. Winds northeast 5-10 mph.

Technical Discussion

Surface analysis shows elongated area of high pressure extending from the Great Lakes region southward to the gulf coast with WAA already underway across the plains. Broad cyclonic circulation noted in WV loop over the western CONUS. Rather substantial trough shows up on WV imagery over the southwest. This will prove to be the only significant player in our forecast / POPs wise / for this forecast package. Thus far, this evening, T/Td spread not favoring fog formation. Feel that fog will not be much of an issue by morning given fairly large T/Td depression. Surface cyclogenesis over the plains results in tightening of gradient during the day and southerly surface flow commencing by this afternoon. Concerns for fog development do arise tomorrow night as southerly sfc flow continues in WAA regime and moisture is transported inland. Per MOS members, T/Td depression approaches zero with robust moisture return underway by then. Will include fog in the overnight period. Beyond Thursday night, our attention shifts to the aforementioned trough approaching from the west. Models show closed mid/upper low over the central plains, which opens back up on Friday. 00z NAM is considerably slower than in previous runs with trough axis extending from near DET to SGF at 00z Saturday. Surface features remain in question as models quickly weaken plains surface low on Friday and shift it southeast. This rapid weakening and movement seems somewhat suspect. Nevertheless, consensus is for front to make it to Mobile on Saturday. Timing will be the main challenge. Aforementioned slowing has resulted in lingering QPF into the afternoon on Saturday. However, fropa is shown to have occurred by mid-afternoon. For now, will stick with the going theme as close as possible given uncertainty. Will only extend PoPs through mid-day / early afternoon with anticipated fropa occurring later. Also, have opted to raise PoPs to low chance as well. Later shifts will need to watch timing trends closely for Saturday period and make any necessary adjustments. Will continue mention of strong/severe thunder with fropa in HWO given Theata-E/Instability axis placement and at least marginally steep mid-level lapse rates. Additionally, 0-6 km shear on the order of 40-50 kts should be sufficient for organized updrafts despite best upper support remaining north of the area. Surface ridge dominates for Sunday and Monday. MEX highs are in the mid-70s though a few ensemble members show lower temperatures for both days indicating more robust post-frontal CAA. For now will go with ensemble consensus / MEX numbers until magnitude of CAA can be realized.

Hazardous Weather

Thunderstorms are expected to develop along a cold front on Friday to our northwest. This front will advance toward our region during the day and approach from the northwest on Friday night. These thunderstorms may move into the area overnight Friday as the front approaches. The presence of a warm and moist environment may support a few strong to severe thunderstorms, although the risk does not appear to be significant at this time. Marginally severe hail and damaging wind gusts would be the primary threat with the most intense storms. Activity may last into the morning hours on Saturday. The front is expected to pass by early Saturday afternoon bringing an end to the thunderstorm threat as a much more stable airmass moves in.

Wednesday Night Forecast

Forecast Issued by Justin Gibbs on 04/05/2006 at 3:43:49 pm CT

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Tonight	Tomorrow	Friday	Saturday	Sunday
	81°F	82°F	77°F	77°F
56°F		63°F	64°F	51°F
VAR 5 mph	S 5-10 mph	S 10-20 mph	W 5-10 mph	N 5-10 mph
0%	0%	10%	20%	0%

Detailed Forecast

Tonight… Partly cloudy…with a few areas of fog. Low 56. Winds variable 5 mph. Tomorrow... Partly cloudy. High 81. Winds south 5-10 mph. Thursday Night... Partly cloudy with patchy fog. Low 63. Winds south 10-15 mph. Friday... Partly cloudy. High 82. Winds south 10-20 mph. Chance of rain is 10 percent. Friday Night... Becoming mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low 64. Winds southwest 10-20 mph. Chance of rain is 40 percent. Saturday... Mostly cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms before noon. Then becoming partly cloudy. High 77. Winds west 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Saturday Night... Mostly clear. Low 51. Wind chill values near 47 degrees are possible. Winds northwest 5-10 mph. Sunday... Mostly sunny. High 77. Winds north 5-10 mph. Sunday Night... Mostly clear. Low 50. Wind chill values near 44 degrees are possible. Winds north 10-20 mph.

Technical Discussion

Forecast Discussion (Wednesday through Sunday): Right Now... Light and variable flow reigns supreme across the northcentral Gulf coast this afternoon. Sfc ridging dominates the ERN CONUS WX with sfc analysis indicating a 1018mb ridge parks 45nm SW of MOB at 2pm. Ridge extends to 850mbs where the axis extends roughly along the same corridor from SERN LA to NCNTRL KY. Further aloft 250-700mb ridge axis exists downstream from SCNTRL TX through the plains into ND. Next weathermaker lies just downstream of this as a rather robust upper level shortwave prepares to eject off the rockies. Sfc cyclogenesis is ongoing this afternoon invof the rockies in response to this building shortwave. Short Term (for a few days or so)... Upper level/Sfc ridging will be the main factor in our weather through the first period with light variable flow becoming slightly southerly as the ridge moves to the east in response to the building trof in the plains. Dewpoint depressions fall to around 2/3 degrees with generally light winds tonight we should radiate fairly well so will stick with the going forecast low of 56 but taper winds just a touch and inclue the possibility of fog. (Guidance has slowed some in the 6/12z data regarding the onset of stronger winds) Thursday our winds will slowly pick up from the south as the sfc cyclone builds in the plains and the trof moves further ESE. Upper level heights increase a bit more than was previously indicated so will go MOS+1 for highs expect we may be leaning on the cool side given the advectional pattern taking shape and the substantial upper level ridging that will be in place giving us rather robust sun coverage throughout the second period. Thursday night the winds should begin to pick up nicely in response to a the rapid deepening of the sfc cyclone over the plains (988mb by 0z Friday per GFS) Guidance increases our cloud cover and winds. Will lean away from the OV output on most MOS guidance and go PC in favor of the forecast soundings and mandatory height charts which indicate less moisture aloft. Will however include another mention of fog as we currently look ripe for an advectional fog event in the overnight hours Thursday as rich GOM air moves in over the NCNTRL gulf coast region. Long Term(everything after that)... Main forecast concern and challenge revolves around Friday/Friday Night/Saturday. Models are in relatively good agreement regarding one basic premise...that the front WILL clear the Mobile area sometime Friday night...however there is still a pretty wide disparity on exactly when...and how. GFS handled previous event fairly well and as HPC has no preference will blend GFS/NAM with a GFS preference for this forecast package. (UKMET supports NAM whilst ECMWF is sitting this one out) This forecast package will continue the going forecast's moving of the front through Thursday night...especially considering the relative weakness of the current ridge to our SE and the depth and breadth of the impending storm system to the northwest. The main question for the forecast is moisture. NAM/GFS/UKMET all show rather dry mid/low levels with this system and offshore buoys in the eastern gulf show the airmass is still recovering from the intrustion over the weekend. It appears for now we will be dealing with a system somewhat struggling for moisture as it reaches this area. However feel that this setup looks rather healthy minus the moisture issue (despite the fact guidance still initialized (and is running in 6/12 hours 5c too high with dewpoints) feel that even a marginal increase in moisture will provide sufficent for convection Friday night with the frontal passage. Guidance is generating rather robust instability values (CAPE 1158 j/kg LI -4.5c) but rather meager lapse rates on the order of 5/5.5 c/km so we continue to have another forecast conundrum and a possible limiting factor for deep convection. For the afternoon solution will lean towards GFS and increase PoPs to 40% but much additional work and updating will be required on this situation given the number of variables. Will continue going forecasts 20 -TSRA for Sat AM as well. For remainder of week extended guidance generates substantial ridging over the ERN CONUS behind the storm system which keeps us mostly clear and dry. Will go ahead and lean towards MOS with this package although given offshore flow for 12-24 hours will cut overnight lows a category. Later shifts may need to tweak temperatures downward further.

Hazardous Weather

Thunderstorms will be possible Friday evening into the overnight hours. While there are some questions regarding whether the atmopshere will be favorable for the development of thunderstorms, any thunderstorms that do occur will have the capability to become strong, and possible severe. Large hail, and damaging winds will be the main threat with any storms that do manage to become severe. Additionally, due to very dry conditions over the past month very high rainfall rates from thunderstorms may result in a few localized flooding problems. The threat for thunderstorms will continued to be montored as the event approaches. Monitor for updated statements, and forecasts.

Wednesday Morning Forecast

Forecast Issued by Daniel Lamb on 04/05/2006 at 4:34:16 am CT

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Today	Thursday	Friday	Saturday	Sunday
81°F	81°F	82°F	78°F	78°F
	56°F	62°F	64°F	56°F
VAR 3-8 mph	S 5-15 mph	SW 10-15 mph	VAR 5-10 mph	N 5-10 mph
0%	0%	0%	20%	0%

Detailed Forecast

Today... Partly cloudy. High around 81. Winds variable around 5 mph. Wednesday Night... Mostly cloudy. Low around 56. Winds light and variable. Thursday... Partly cloudy. High around 81. Winds south 5-15 mph. Thursday Night... Mostly cloudy. Low around 62. Winds south 5-10 mph. Friday... Partly cloudy early, then increasing cloudiness in the afternoon. High around 82. Winds southwest 10-15 mph. Friday Night... Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low around 64. Winds southwest 10-15 mph. Chance of rain is 30 percent. Saturday... Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the morning. High around 78. Winds variable 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Saturday Night... Partly cloudy. Low around 56. Winds northwest 5-10 mph. Sunday... Mostly sunny. High around 78. Winds north 5-10 mph.

Technical Discussion

Analysis... Cold front that pushed through Monday night is now well south of the area in the Central GOM. 1020mb high centered near KMEM is in control of our weather for the time being. Under clear skies, radiational cooling is allowing for a wide temperature spread from 48 at KMOB to a Gulf-modified 66 at the Dauphin Island C-MAN station. U/A analysis reveals a ridge building across the middle of the CONUS, with our next newsmaking upper trough digging onshore the Pac NW. Short Term (Today and Thursday)... Surface high will continue to shift east as the attendant mid/upper level ridge shifts over the area and upper trough continues to dig across the western CONUS through tomorrow. Good model agreement that a notable, but relatively weak, shortwave will zoom just north of the area this evening. NAM is a bit more bullish with the strength of it. Some QPF is printed immediately to our north. That said, a relatively dry airmass will continue to prevail through most of the next 48 hours, and do not believe we will see anything more than increased cloudiness this evening, then clearing into the overnight hours. Tomorrow looks dry for now. Return flow will resume my midday tomorrow, but NAM progged theta-e indicates the best moisture-rich environment may not actually return to the area until we get into the long term period, as higher and more SSW/SWly surface winds (as opposed to SSE/S) tap into more moisture-rich air over the western GOM (less influenced by recent cold front). For temps, went above MOS for highs, which I believe is bringing clouds in too soon with the S/W tonight and ahead of our next storm system tomorrow. Went closer to MAV for lows tonight, because I believe it has a better handle on timing of clouds moving out. Long Term (Friday through Sunday)... Leeside low should develop in the Great Plains by tomorrow afternoon ahead of the upper trough which will continue to shift eastward. Best moisture should be back into the area by Friday afternoon, as the area becomes 'warm-sectored' ahead of our next potential weathermaker. Preliminary indications are there could be severe weather somewhere in the SErn CONUS toward week's end. The question is where and when. SWODY3 has a slight risk up to just NW of the area, primarily for Friday late. Things get messy in the upper levels as we head into the weekend. Our upper level trough is expected to close off a low before heading into the mid-Mississippi Valley. Then, it appears it will "merge" with another upper trough farther northeast, as it is forced slightly southward. This, I believe, is why the NAM and GFS see dynamics associated with the feature weakening/shifting northward on Saturday, and yet the trough still digs farther south. As a result, things get even murkier at the surface, where our "main low" weakens and another low, which develops farther northeast, becomes the dominant feature. What does this mean for us? Blv it means that, unless there are changes in timing, our biggest threat of TSRA will be late Friday/early Saturday morning with linear activity N/W of the area propogating eastward into an area of decreasing instability. Natural speed confluence aloft as the upper level jet rounds the base of the trough axis(which will be approaching the area) will only serve as a hindrance to ongoing activity, and fropa appears to occur during the morning Saturday. Potential fly in the ointment could be delayed fropa on Saturday. Global models continue to show lag in positively-tilted upper trough progressing east of the area in any hurry this weekend. If we were to stay south of the front on Saturday, still don't believe we'd be facing any major severe threat with best dynamic support far replaced to our north and east. Will issue a hazardous weather discussion to include current thoughts on storm threat. Despite my current thoughts, won't get too 'cute' with timing wording in detailed forecast. Things are too uncertain to nitpick this far out. Needless to say, later shifts will need to monitor changes in model timing of this system. Beyond Saturday, weak upper ridge builds into the central CONUS, with an associated surface high building over the upper Midwest. Sunday looks dry for now.

Hazardous Weather

Through Friday, no hazardous weather is expected across the area. Friday night and Saturday, a cold front will approach the area from the west and bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms. It is too early to pin down the exact timing and intensity of this activity, however, it appears there will be a threat of some strong thunderstorms, mainly late Friday night and Saturday morning. Stay tuned to later forecasts for the most updated information.

Tuesday Night Forecast

Forecast Issued by Robert Frye on 04/04/2006 at 2:26:18 pm CT

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Tonight	Tomorrow	Thursday	Friday	Saturday
	76°F	79°F	81°F	80°F
51°F		57°F	62°F	63°F
N 3-5 mph	NE 5-10 mph	S 5-10 mph	S 8-12 mph	S 5-10 mph
0%	0%	0%	20%	20%

Detailed Forecast

Tonight… Clear. Low 51. Winds north 3-5 mph. Tomorrow... Mostly sunny. High 76. Winds northeast 5-10 mph. Wednesday Night... Clear. Low 57. Winds south 5-10 mph. Thursday... Partly cloudy. High 79. Winds south 5-10 mph. Thursday Night... Clear. Low 62. Winds south 5-10 mph. Friday... Chance of thunderstorms. High 81. Winds south 8-12 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Friday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 63. Winds south 5-10 mph. Saturday... Chance of thunderstorms. High 80. Winds south 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Saturday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 60. Winds west 2-4 mph.

Technical Discussion

Forecast Discussion (Tuesday through Saturday): Dry Wx continues for the Mobile area. ATTM no "huge" chances of precip for a while. A weak cold front has moved through the area and our dp's have fallen to the 30's. With the drier and relatively cooler air we will drop the lows into the 50's for Tonight. The weak CAA will be replaced with WAA as a return flow starts out of the gulf on Thurs. A nice mid lat cyclone will move to the north of us again giving those areas that have already been nailed by tornadoes another shot of SVR. For us we'll keep POPs at 20 for now. Later shifts may look at the chances of SVR mainly north this weekend. Well not issue HWO at this time. Decided not to split AFD into terms due to the inactive Wx.

Hazardous Weather

No hazardous weather is expected through the forecast period.

Monday Night Forecast

Forecast Issued by Michael Leach on 04/03/2006 at 2:43:23 pm CT

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Tonight	Tomorrow	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday
	76°F	77°F	81°F	82°F
56°F		52°F	59°F	64°F
NW 7-14 mph	N 6-12 mph	NE 5-10 mph	S 10 mph	SW 10-15 mph
10%	0%	0%	0%	20%

Detailed Forecast

Tonight… Decreasing cloudiness. Low around 56. Winds northwest 7-14 mph. Chance of rain is 10 percent. Tomorrow... Sunny. High near 76. Winds north 6-12 mph. Tuesday Night... Clear. Low around 52. Winds north 2-4 mph. Wednesday... Mostly sunny. High near 77. Winds northeast 5-10 mph. Wednesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low near 59. Winds south 5-10 mph. Thursday... Partly cloudy. High around 81. Winds south around 10 mph. Thursday Night... Partly cloudy. Low near 64. Winds south aruond 10 mph. Chance of rain is 10 percent. Friday... Partly cloudy with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. High around 82. Winds southwest 10-15 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Friday Night... Partly cloudy with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low near 64. Winds southwest around 10 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent.

Technical Discussion

Short Term (Tonight Through Wednesday) Very warm afternoon underway today with a temperature of 84 reported at KMOB at 19z. The record high for today at KMOB is 85, so that record is in jeopardy. Looking at 19z surface plots, the cold front looks to be running between Jackson and Hattiesburg, MS at this time, as the dewpoint is about 10 degrees lower at Jackson. Temperatures behind the front are in the 70's in northern MS, and in the 50's and 60's through portions of western and central TN. The front will likely pass through Mobile this evening, bringing lower temperatures and dewpoints into the region tonight with a slight CAA pattern beginning. It looks like this will be a dry front, as area radars show nothing in the way of rain so far this afternoon. Will keep a 10% PoP in the forecast for tonight just incase some isolated convection can develop. Skies will begin partly to mostly cloudy across the region this evening, with decreasing clouds after fropa. High pressure will build across the lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday, continuing the slight CAA with northerly winds. High pressure will remain in control of our weather through Wednesday, with the result being clear skies and cooler temperatures. Long Term (Thursday and Friday) On Thursday, the area of high pressure will shift east of the area, allowing return flow from the Gulf over the area. Also, an area of low pressure is expected to move into the Midwest. WAA will begin, and temperatures will likely warm to around 80 again by Thursday afternoon. On Friday, the area of low pressure will move toward the Great Lakes region, dragging a trailing cold front toward the region. Once again, the main dynamics with this system are expected to remain north of the area. However, with fairly strong WAA taking place over the region providing some lifting, some precip may occur. The WAA advection looks to be stronger with the upcoming system than with this system, with stronger winds at 850 mb indicated by models. 12z GFS shows better chances of precip north of MOB, as with the previous systems. Will stay conservative at this time and keep PoP's at 20%. It is interesting to note that the SPC Day 4-8 Outlook brings a risk of severe weather with this system as far south as extreme northern Mobile County. Of course, the better chances of severe weather will likely be north of the area where the better dynamics will be. But, we'll keep an eye on it. Rainfall at KMOB so far this year: 7.33". Normal rainfall: 18.44". Departure from normal (as of April 2): -11.11"

Hazardous Weather

No hazardous weather is expected through the forecast period.

Sunday Morning Forecast

Forecast Issued by Justin Gibbs/Daniel Lamb on 04/02/2006 at 3:40:41 am CT

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Today	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday
83°F	82°F	77°F	77°F	80°F
	64°F	62°F	55°F	56°F
S 5 mph	S 5-15 mph	NW 5-10 mph	E 3-8 mph	S 10-15 mph
0%	20%	10%	0%	0%

Detailed Forecast

Today... Partly cloudy. High around 83. Winds south around 5 mph. Sunday Night... Partly cloudy. Low around 64. Winds south 5-10 mph. Monday... Partly cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms. High around 82. Winds south 5-15 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Monday Night... Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low around 62. Winds south 10-20 mph. Chance of rain is 30 percent. Tuesday... Partly cloudy. High around 77. Winds northwest 5-10 mph. Tuesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low around 55. Winds northeast 5 mph. Wednesday... Partly cloudy. High around 77. Winds east 3-8 mph. Wednesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low around 56. Winds southeast 5-10 mph. Thursday... Partly cloudy. High around 80. Winds south 10-15 mph.

Technical Discussion

Right Now... Light flow at the sfc with a ridge of high pressure analyzed to our southeast...a sfc cyclone is building and pushing eastward across the rockies. This system is dragging the coldfront expected to be our main weathermaker at the start of the work week. The last front that tried to make it through is currently sitting stationary along the AL/MS/TN border. We lie well in the warm sector with sfc tds in the middle to upper 60s across the northcentral Gulf tonight. Upper level trof responsible for the sfc cyclone currently is centered across Western TX northward to NERN WY. This will swing eastward and become negatively tilted throught the first 3 forecast periods. Short Term... Main outlook is early AM fog chances...current dewpoint depressions are running from 2-4 degrees across the metro with a minimal sfc flow. Visibilites are diminishing across ERN MS and CNTRL AL and ours will likely go down as fog forms through about 4-6 am CDT. For first period moisture continues to develop through the column as the gradient betwene the high to our south-southeast and the northwest tightens. Winds will pick up gradually throughout the day and likely pick up quite a bit. Advectional pattern will continue overnight under partly cloudy skies as the LLJ picks up steam pouring in additional moisture to our drier lower levels (700-850mb) Clouds should increase through the day Monday as the frontal system nudges closer. Main forecast challenge for first period revolves soley around timing and impact of the frontal system. Guidance indicates ridge to our SSE will remain in place through early Monday before it is nudged eastward by the frontal system and associated sfc cyclone. Low level wind profiles are not particularly favorable for this rapid a FROPA. Sfc cylcone will be moving fairly quickly but serious questions retain (especially after the exact same scenario has unfolded across the MOB area for the past week) Decision on going forecast calls for continuing 20POP on Monday afternoon and increasing to sctd 30 pop for Monday evening. Basically we have taken the GFS/UKMET solution which appear to have analyzed best and performed the most reasonably in the events in the past week which have been synoptically similar and slowed them down another 6 hours or so. Also will be watching for convective potential invof FROPA Monday aftn/evening as substantial advection leaves us a very moist and unstable airmass with NAM SBCAPE values on the order of 2353 j/kg with lapse rates near 8 c/km in the lower levels. We prefer the slightly less unstable GFS solution which calls for CAPE around 800 j/kg with modest lapse rates. Nevertheless if the front can move through at a decent hour of the day (if its faster than currently forecast) we could end up with a decent convective event Monday as we would have decent upper level support in addtion to the sfc based instability. Later shifts may need to increase PoPs if continuity improves amongst numerical guidance. JG Long Term (Tuesday through Thursday)... Since we're not ready to hang our hat on Monday evening FROPA, gonna go a bit wishy-washy with the extended period. Our next system is still outside of the forecast range, so we can take some more time to ponder our potential Mon night system. Despite potential skepticism about a frontal passage sometime early in the week (as detailed above excellently by my collegue), I do think high pressure will build into the area mid week (happen as it may - the front passing the area or the front dissipating over the area). GFS, DGEX, and UKMET support this hunch. However, I do not buy the cooler values that MEX guidance is spitting out. Given the uncertainty about which airmass will be influencing our weather, and whether there will even be a huge difference between the temps on either side of this boundary, will bump temps down only a couple degrees from previous forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday, but will go well above MOS - trending more toward climo. Return flow sets up again on Wednesday, but our next system doesn't get close to the area until outside of the forecast period. Temps will moderate heading into the end of the week. DL

Hazardous Weather

No hazardous weather is expected through the forecast period.

Saturday Morning Forecast

Forecast Issued by Michael Leach on 04/01/2006 at 1:11:17 am CT

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Today	Sunday	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday
82°F	83°F	84°F	79°F	79°F
	63°F	63°F	59°F	57°F
S 10 mph	S 7-14 mph	SW 5-10 mph	W 5-10 mph	N 5-10 mph
20%	10%	20%	20%	10%

Detailed Forecast

Today... Partly cloudy with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. High around 82. Winds south 10 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Saturday Night... Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Patchy fog after midnight. Low near 63. Winds south around 5 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Sunday... Partly cloudy. High around 83. Winds south 7-14 mph. Chance of rain is 10 percent. Sunday Night... Partly cloudy. Low near 63. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 10 percent. Monday... Partly cloudy with a slight chance of thunderstorms. High around 84. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Monday Night... Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low near 59. Winds west-southwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 30 percent. Tuesday... Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. High around 79. Winds west 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Tuesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low near 57. Winds northwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 10 percent. Wednesday... Partly cloudy. High around 79. Winds north 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 10 percent.

Technical Discussion

Short Term (Saturday through Sunday evening): A quick climatological note: March 2006 is now officially the driest March on record at KMOB. Only 0.24" of rain fell during March, beating the old record of 0.42" set only two years ago in March 2004. For the short term, expecting warm temperatures with continued slight WAA over the region. Only slight chances of rain expected over the weekend across South Alabama, as storm track remains well to the north. Used a blend of MET and MAV PoP's for the weekend (20% today, 10% Sunday). Expect patchy fog to develop once again tonight as the dewpoint depression decreases. Overall coverage of fog in question as models indicate winds may stay up around 5 knots. If winds do relax more, some dense fog could be possible. Long Term (Monday through Wednesday): The long term forecast presents more of a challenge than the short term. Models now indicating a possible FROPA on Monday Afternoon over the area. MAV guidance increases PoP's to around 40% for Monday Evening, while MET guidance only has PoP's around 15%. I think the GFS may be overdoing PoP's a bit, but will raise rain chances to low-end chance category for Monday Evening, with 20% PoP's during the days on Monday and Tuesday. Also wondering if models are being too aggressive with FROPA (as we've seen before this season). With some agreement between models, will go with a FROPA at this time, but move it back to late Monday Night/Tuesday as models are many times too fast with FROPA's. Will drop temperatures slightly on Tuesday and Wednesday, but not to the values forecasted by the 00z GFSX (MEX) guidance. This forecast is subject to change in later shifts as confidence is fairly low at this time with regards to the timing (and if) FROPA occurs.

Hazardous Weather

No hazardous weather is expected through the forecast period.