Tuesday Evening Forecast

Forecast issued by Michael Leach on 11/28/06 at 3:34:57 pm CST

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Tonight	Tomorrow	Thursday	Friday	Saturday
	75°F	77°F	60°F	61°F
60°F		62°F	58°F	39°F
SE 5-10 mph	SE 10-15 mph	SSE 10-15 mph G 15-30 mph	NW 10-15 mph	N 4-8 mph
0%	30%	50%	30%	0%

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Detailed Forecast

Tonight… Partly cloudy. Areas of fog developing. Fog may be dense at times. Low 60. Winds southeast 5-10 mph. Tomorrow... Partly cloudy with scattered showers. High 75. Winds southeast 10-15 mph. Chance of rain is 30 percent. Wednesday Night... Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Low 62. Winds southeast 7-14 mph. Chance of rain is 30 percent. Thursday... Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain and thunderstorms. High 77. Winds south-southeast 10-15 mph with gusts 15-30 mph. Chance of rain is 50 percent. Thursday Night... Mostly cloudy with rain and thunderstorms. Low 58. Winds south 10-15 mph. Chance of rain is 70 percent. Friday... A chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning. Then, decreasing clouds. High 60. Winds northwest 10-15 mph. Chance of rain is 30 percent. Friday Night... Mostly clear. Low 39. Wind chill values as low as 32 degrees are possible. Winds north 5-10 mph. Saturday... Partly cloudy. High 61. Winds north 4-8 mph. Saturday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 43. Winds north-northeast 4-8 mph.

Technical Discussion

Forecast Discussion (Tuesday through Saturday): The main concerns with this forecast are rain chances throughout the period and the risk of severe weather on Thursday and Thursday night. Also, the possibility of dense fog tonight and Wednesday morning is a concern. Tonight, warm temperatures are expected as overnight lows will only fall to around 60 degrees. MAV, MET, and FWC guidance all indicate dewpoint depressions around 0 beginning late this evening and during the overnight hours. MOS members also indicate very low visibilities across the areas (all MOS guidance indicates visibility in the lowest category). This points to the potential for dense fog across the area tonight. Will indicate areas of fog, some of which may be dense, in the forecast. Will not include any PoP's for tonight. KMOB WSR-88D does indicate a few isolated showers offshore currently. While some areas may see an isolated shower during the late afternoon or evening hours, do not believe it is a high enough chance to include in the forecast. For Wednesday, will continue the mention of scattered showers in the forecast. WAA looks to become a little stronger at 850 mb during this time frame, leading to a little more lifting across the area. Some isentropic lifting may also occur across the area. With this said, will go above guidance for PoP's in the Wednesday and Wednesday night time frame, and keep PoP's around 30% for these periods. Thursday, rain chances will increase as the cold front and associated upper level dynamics move closer to the region. 12z GFS and NAM models have trended a little farther south with the 500 mb negatively-tilted shortwave trough. The models show the axis of the trough across the Mid-South. Models indicate a ~40 kt. LLJ across the area Thursday and Thursday night. The dynamics with this system don't look quite as impressive as with the last system, as the better dynamics look to stay to our north and west. However, with strong wind fields in place, a few isolated strong to severe storms look to be possible (especially if models trend farther south with the trough). CAPE looks to be marginal with this event. Models indicate the highest MUCAPE of only around 500-750 J/kg. NAM indicates 0-3 km SRH values of 150-200 m2/s2 Thursday evening. A GFS model sounding for Thursday evening only indicates CAPE of around 300 J/kg, but most of this is confined to the 850 to 600 mb layer. The sounding indicates helicity of 174 ms/s2, with good speed shear but not much directional shear. With all of this said, some isolated strong to severe storms are possible. At this time, will not mention strong or severe wording in the forecast, but continue to monitor model trends and let future forecasters fine tune the forecast. Will hold on to 30% PoP for Friday morning to account for a possible slower fropa. Decreasing clouds and CAA should commence on Friday afternoon after fropa, with cooler temperatures moving into the region behind the front. For Saturday, continue northerly flow and slight CAA should continue. With this, expect partly cloudy skies and dry weather on Saturday, with temperatures remaining rather pleasant.

Hazardous Weather

Hazardous Weather Outlook (Tuesday through Saturday): Areas of fog are expected to develop across the area tonight. Some of the fog may be dense at times. Those planning travel across the region tonight should be aware of the potential for dense fog, and take extra caution in areas of fog. On Thursday, a cold front is expected to move near the area. Along and ahead of the front, showers and thunderstorms will become likely by Thursday afternoon and evening. A few isolated strong to severe storms are possible. People should keep up to date on the latest forecasts concerning this weather system.

Astronomical and Climatological Data
Moon Phase First Sunset 4:51 PM Sunrise 6:30 AM	11/28/06 Normal High Record High Normal Low Record Low Temperature 67°F 80°F (2005) 45°F 25°F (1938) November Normal Wettest Driest Precipitation 5.41 in. 13.65 in. (1948) 0.06 in. (1924)