Tuesday Evening Forecast

Forecast issued by Michael Leach on 11/14/06 at 2:35:20 pm CST

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Tonight	Tomorrow	Thursday	Friday	Saturday
	74°F	61°F	66°F	67°F
63°F		47°F	40°F	43°F
S 10-20 mph G 15-30 mph	SW 10-20 mph G 15-30 mph	NW 7-14 mph G 10-20 mph	N 5-10 mph	N 5-10 mph
70%	90%	0%	0%	0%

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Detailed Forecast

Tonight… Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms becoming likely. Some storms may be severe late. Low around 45. Winds south 10-20 mph with gusts 15-30 mph. Chance of rain is 70 percent. Tomorrow... Rain and thunderstorms. Some storms may be severe. High near 71. Winds southwest 10-20 mph with gusts 15-30 mph. Chance of rain is 90 percent. Wednesday Night... Mostly cloudy with isolated showers, mainly early in the evening. Low around 60. Winds west-northwest 10-15 mph with gusts 15-30 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Thursday... Decreasing clouds. High near 73. Winds northwest 7-14 mph with gusts 10-20 mph. Thursday Night... Mostly clear. Low around 47. Wind chill values as low as 34 degrees are possible. Winds northwest 5-10 mph. Friday... Mostly sunny. High near 63. Winds north 5-10 mph. Friday Night... Clear. Low around 42. Winds north 4-8 mph. Saturday... Sunny. High near 67. Winds north 5-10 mph. Saturday Night... Mostly clear. Low around 40. Winds northeast 5-10 mph.

Technical Discussion

"Short Term (Tuesday through Wednesday evening): The main focus on this forecast will be the potential of severe thunderstorms tonight and Wednesday. Also, strong gradient winds will also be a concern. 12z NAM and GFS guidance in basic agreement with a strong low pressure system moving across the mid-South through Wednesday. The NAM is slightly farther south than the GFS, but not so much so as to really affect any sensible weather. As the low pressure system develops to our northwest, a strong pressure gradient is expected to develop across our area, leading to gusty winds. Basically kept the wind forecast from the previous forecaster, and indicated gusts to 30 mph possible beginning tonight and continuing through Wednesday. WAA/LLJ should rapidly strengthen across the area tonight. Lifting associated with the WAA should lead to showers and thunderstorms developing across the area tonight (already, radars are showing showers and thunderstorms developing over Louisiana and southern Mississippi). By late tonight and early Wednesday morning, strong convection is expected to develop across the region as the LLJ strengthens more and centers itself close to our area. A warm front moving off the Gulf will also enhance the convection. GFS and NAM forecast soundings indicate CAPE values possibly over 1000 J/kg, with rather substantial positive areas on the sounding. 0-3 km SRH values look to possibly be over 400 m2/s2, with EHI values approaching 3 (per GFS sounding for 18z Wednesday). The LLJ at this time looks to be around 60 kts. Looks like the greatest severe threat will be damaging straight line winds due to the very strong wind fields expected. Directional shear does not look too impressive according to model soundings (although the latest GFS soundings do indicate a touch more directional shear than previous model runs). With this said, believe that we do have an isolated tornado threat. Tornadoes will be most likely in any supercells able to form out ahead of the main squall line, and also in individual cells embedded within the squall line. The NAM appears to be a little slower with fropa than GFS. I believe the front should cross the area by 00z Thursday (6 pm Wednesday), with the squall line preceding the front. Left in slight chance PoP's for Wednesday night to account for any lingering showers along and just behind the front. Did not clear skies out on Wednesday night as MAV and MET guidance did to account for the possibility of low clouds behind the front. Long Term (Thursday through Saturday): On Thursday, indicated decreasing clouds as the low clouds should move off to the east. Drier and cooler weather should be on tap for the end of the week, with mostly sunny skies on Friday and highs in the 60's. High pressure is expected to continue across the area through Saturday, providing us with a northerly wind. CAA and subsidence will dominate this period. "

Hazardous Weather

Hazardous Weather Outlook (Tuesday through Saturday): An intense storm system that is expected to stengthen over the plains later today and move toward the area. As it does, warm moist air will surge nortward ahead of the system and set the stage for a potential severe weather event. Strong low-level wind fields will support storms to become organized pose a threat of wind damage. Although damaging winds is expected to be the primary threat, large hail and isolated tornadoes will be possible. Thunderstorms should increase in coverage tonight and be scattered across the area into the morning hours on Wednesday. As the system passes later during the afternoon on Wednesday, a line of thunderstorms will likely sweep across the area bringing the highest threat for severe weather. The most likely time for this line to impact the area will be from early to mid afternoon. Residence should review severe weather safety information and be prepared to take action should severe weather threaten. Now is a good time to develop a plan of action if you do not already have one. Monitor a reliable weather source, such as NOAA Weather Radio, for the latest on the dangerous weather situation.

Astronomical and Climatological Data
Moon Phase Last Sunset 4:55 PM Sunrise 6:18 AM	11/14/06 Normal High Record High Normal Low Record Low Temperature 70°F 82°F (1955) 48°F 32°F (1986) November Normal Wettest Driest Precipitation 5.41 in. 13.65 in. (1948) 0.06 in. (1924)

11/14 in Mobile Area Weather History

In 1983 an early evening storm dropped an F0 tornado near Fulton in Clarke County, AL where a roof of a home was damaged and several trees were downed. (Data compiled from NWS Mobile, NWS Birmingham, newspaper articles, USA Archives, US Hurricanes and HurricaneCity.com)