Tuesday Evening Forecast

Forecast issued by Michael Leach on 11/07/06 at 3:19:38 pm CST

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Tonight	Tomorrow	Thursday	Friday	Saturday
	73°F	80°F	80°F	77°F
52°F		54°F	59°F	62°F
WNW 5-10 mph	W 5-10 mph	SSW 5-10 mph	S 5-10 mph	WNW 5-10 mph
0%	0%	0%	0%	20%

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Detailed Forecast

Tonight… Decreasing clouds. Low 52. Winds west-northwest 5-10 mph. Tomorrow... Mostly sunny. High 73. Winds west 5-10 mph. Wednesday Night... Mostly clear. Low 54. Winds west light. Thursday... Mostly sunny. High 80. Winds south-southwest 5-10 mph. Thursday Night... Mostly clear. Low 59. Winds south light. Friday... Partly cloudy. High 80. Winds south 5-10 mph. Friday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 62. Winds southwest 4-8 mph. Saturday... Partly cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms. High 77. Winds west-northwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Saturday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 54. Winds northwest 4-8 mph.

Technical Discussion

Synopsis: 19z RUC analysis indicates a cold core upper level low centered over northwestern Alabama. The associated trough extended southward over the central Gulf of Mexico. At the surface, HPC analyzed a cold front extending from the Big Bend of Florida into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. At KMOB, winds were northwesterly at the surface and 850 mb, and slight CAA was noted over the area. Forecast Discussion (Tuesday through Saturday): For tonight, skies should continue to clear as slight CAA continues over the area. The air mass behind the cold front is of Pacific origin, so no major cool down is anticipated, although overnight lows the next couple of nights will be slightly cooler than previous nights. Wednesday should be a nice day, with mostly sunny skies and continued slight CAA leading to subsidence across the area. Winds at the surface are expected to shift to the south on Thursday, and the CAA at 850 mb will cease. Southerly winds will continue on Friday. At 500 mb, a ridge is expected to build across the area. The result will be dry and warm conditions on Thursday and Friday. High temperatures are expected to be around 5 to 10 degrees above average. Record highs are 83 and 82 for Thursday and Friday, respectively. Current forecast has highs just below record values, but the records could be in jeopardy. Indicated a slight increase in clouds on Friday in advance of the next cold front to affect the region. On Saturday, a cold front is expected to approach the area. The 12z GFS indicates the best dynamics staying well to the north of the region, associated with a trough over the Ohio Valley. As a result, very little QPF is noted along the front on GFS graphics. The confidence in this forecast is low, however, as the 00z GFS indicated a stronger trough farther to the south (extending into northwest Alabama), and more QPF over us. MEX guidance increases PoP's to 35% for Saturday, but that looks too high to me at this time. For now, will just indicate a slight chance of rain for Saturday and await better model continuity. ML

Hazardous Weather

Hazardous Weather Outlook (Tuesday through Saturday): No hazardous weather is expected through the forecast period.

Astronomical and Climatological Data
Moon Phase Full Moon Sunset 5:00 PM Sunrise 6:12 AM	11/07/06 Normal High Record High Normal Low Record Low Temperature 72°F 85°F (1935) 50°F 27°F (1959) November Normal Wettest Driest Precipitation 5.41 in. 13.65 in. (1948) 0.06 in. (1924)

11/07 in Mobile Area Weather History

In 1989 an early morning storm dropped an F0 tornado southeast of Bay Minette in Baldwin County, AL that damaged a barn, unroofed a mobile home, and uprooted trees. (Data compiled from NWS Mobile, NWS Birmingham, newspaper articles, USA Archives, US Hurricanes and HurricaneCity.com)