Thursday Evening Forecast

Forecast issued by Michael Leach on 11/30/06 at 3:18:47 pm CST

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Tonight	Tomorrow	Saturday	Sunday	Monday
	54°F	58°F	59°F	54°F
43°F		32°F	35°F	32°F
S 10-20 mph G 15-30 mph	NW 10-20 mph	N 4-8 mph	N 5-10 mph	N 4-8 mph
70%	20%	0%	0%	0%

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Detailed Forecast

Tonight… Mostly cloudy with rain and thunderstorms. Low 43. Winds south 10-20 mph with gusts 15-30 mph, shifting to the northwest toward morning. Chance of rain is 70 percent. Tomorrow... Partly cloudy with isolated showers in the morning. High 54. Winds northwest 10-20 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Friday Night... Mostly clear. Low 32. Wind chill values as low as 24 degrees are possible. Winds north 5-10 mph. Saturday... Partly cloudy. High 58. Winds north 4-8 mph. Saturday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 35. Wind chill values as low as 28 degrees are possible. Winds north 4-8 mph. Sunday... Partly cloudy. High 59. Winds north 5-10 mph. Sunday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 32. Wind chill values as low as 22 degrees are possible. Winds north 7-14 mph. Monday... Partly cloudy. High 54. Winds north 4-8 mph. Monday Night... Mostly clear. Low 30. Winds northeast light.

Technical Discussion

Forecast Discussion (Thursday through Monday): The main concern for this forecast period is the potential of strong to severe storms tonight. A negatively-tilted shortwave trough will move from the Mid-South to the Ohio Valley tonight through Friday morning. At the surface, an area of low pressure is expected to move from near Memphis, TN, northeastward into the Ohio Valley. A cold front trailing from this low is expected to move across the region late tonight and early Friday morning. A line of showers and thunderstorms is expected to move across the region in advance of the front. The better dynamics with this system should stay to our north and west, closer to the shortwave trough moving across the Mid-South. However, models do indicate a rather strong LLJ moving across the region late tonight. The 12z GFS indicates a LLJ around 40 kts., while the NAM indicates a LLJ around 50-55 kts. With strong wind fields in place in the upper levels of the atmosphere, some storms that form may be able to mix some of the high winds down to the surface. Therefore, the main severe weather risk will be damaging winds. Models soundings indicate some speed shear, and perhaps a little directional shear across the region late tonight. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out as any showers or storms ahead of the line or embedded in the line may be able to rotate. The dynamics will be tempered by a lack of instability across the area. Model soundings indicate little CAPE across the region. Therefore, the severe threat should remain rather isolated. Will hold on to a 20% PoP for Friday morning to account for any lingering showers. Temperatures will cool off sharply behind the front. Friday will be a chilly and raw day, with temperatures holding in the 50's, and a strong northwest wind making it feel ever colder. With skies clearing, lows Friday night will be near freezing. The weekend ahead looks to be nice. High pressure will remain across the region during the weekend, and CAA will continue. Cool temperatures can be expected throughout the weekend, with highs in the upper 50's to near 60, and lows in the 30's. A reinforcing shot of cold air will move into the area Sunday night and Monday. The coldest night of the period may be Monday night as the GFS indicates a center of high pressure moving close to the region, resulting in mostly clear skies and light winds.

Hazardous Weather

Hazardous Weather Outlook (Thursday through Monday): A strong cold front will move across the region late tonight and Friday morning. Ahead of the front, showers and thunderstorms will become likely tonight. There may be a few isolated strong to severe storms across the region, with the main threat being damaging winds due to rather strong dynamics across the region. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. The severe threat should remain isolated in nature due to limited instability. After the cold front passes, the threat of storms will diminish by Friday morning. People are urged to keep track of this system through a reliable weather service and be ready to take action if a watch or warning is necessary. No hazardous weather is expected throughout the remainder of the period.

Astronomical and Climatological Data
Moon Phase Gibbous Waxing Sunset 4:51 PM Sunrise 6:31 AM	11/30/06 Normal High Record High Normal Low Record Low Temperature 66°F 80°F (1967) 45°F 24°F (1976) November Normal Wettest Driest Precipitation 5.41 in. 13.65 in. (1948) 0.06 in. (1924)

11/30 in Mobile Area Weather History

In 1977 an early morning tornado struck northern Mobile in Mobile County, AL. The tornado destroyed a home, heavily damaged 5 other homes, and caused minor damage to 8 additional homes along with causing tree and power line damage. (Data compiled from NWS Mobile, NWS Birmingham, newspaper articles, USA Archives, US Hurricanes and HurricaneCity.com)