Thursday Evening Forecast

Forecast issued by Michael Leach on 11/09/06 at 3:18:49 pm CST

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Tonight	Tomorrow	Saturday	Sunday	Monday
	80°F	76°F	72°F	76°F
59°F		61°F	53°F	55°F
Lgt S	S 5-10 mph	W 5-10 mph	ENE 5-10 mph	SE 5-10 mph
0%	0%	30%	0%	20%

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Detailed Forecast

Tonight… Mostly clear. Low 59. Winds south light. Tomorrow... Partly cloudy. High 80. Winds south 5-10 mph. Friday Night... Mostly cloudy with isolated showers, mainly late. Low 61. Winds south-southwest 4-8 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Saturday... Mostly cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms. High 76. Winds west 5-10 mph, becoming northwest in the afternoon. Chance of rain is 30 percent. Saturday Night... Decreasing clouds. Low 53. Winds north 5-10 mph. Sunday... Partly cloudy. High 72. Winds east-northeast 5-10 mph. Sunday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 55. Winds east 4-8 mph. Monday... Partly cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms. High 76. Winds southeast 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Monday Night... Partly cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms. Low 63. Winds south 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent.

Technical Discussion

Synopsis: High pressure centered over the north-central Gulf of Mexico continues to dominate the weather across the region today. At 18z, HPC analyzed the center of high pressure due south of Pensacola, FL. The anticyclonic flow around the high is giving us a southwesterly wind at Mobile today. Temperatures are warm, with MOB reporting 78 degrees at 20z. Forecast Discussion (Thursday through Monday): It's mainly a temperature forecast for tonight and Friday. Basically took a blend of MAV and MET for tonight, and went slightly above guidance for Friday. With the warm air mass in place, and since MOS guidance is based somewhat on climatology, I believe the actual highs may be a couple of degrees warmer on Friday than the upper 70's MAV and MET is advertising. The forecasted values are close to 12z FWC guidance. At 850 mb, weak WAA looks to take shape on Friday. The next concern involves rain chances on Friday night and Saturday. Rain chances do not look particularly high with this system. For one, the main dynamics will be passing well to the north of our area. Also, WAA does not looks to get too well established at 850 mb by the time the front moves through. 12z GFS graphics indicate a narrow band of QPF in association with the front, while the NAM indicates only isolated pockets of QPF this far south. Will go between these solutions, and have low-chance PoP's for Saturday. Will also introduce a slight PoP for late Friday night. After fropa, winds will shift to the north on Saturday night, with slightly cooler temperatures. By Sunday, however, winds will begin to shift more to the east as high pressure over the Ohio Valley moves east. Sunday looks dry at this point. On Monday, WAA will become better established as winds shift to the southeast and eventually south. With the WAA, and the associated increasing moisture, will include a slight PoP for Monday and Monday night. A more significant chance of rain and thunderstorms is expected by Tuesday or Wednesday as a stronger storm system approaches the area. ML

Hazardous Weather

Hazardous Weather Outlook (Thursday through Monday): No hazardous weather is expected through the forecast period.

Astronomical and Climatological Data
Moon Phase Gibbous Waning Sunset 4:58 PM Sunrise 6:14 AM	11/09/06 Normal High Record High Normal Low Record Low Temperature 72°F 83°F (1986) 49°F 30°F (1991) November Normal Wettest Driest Precipitation 5.41 in. 13.65 in. (1948) 0.06 in. (1924)