Thursday Evening Forecast

Forecast issued by Michael Leach on 11/02/06 at 2:54:00 pm CST

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Tonight	Tomorrow	Saturday	Sunday	Monday
	65°F	68°F	71°F	75°F
38°F		39°F	46°F	53°F
N 7-14 mph	N 7-14 mph	E 5-10 mph	E 5-10 mph	SE 5-10 mph
0%	0%	0%	0%	10%

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Detailed Forecast

Tonight… Clear. Low 38. Wind chill values as low as 30 degrees are possible. Winds north 7-14 mph. Tomorrow... Sunny. High 65. Winds north 7-14 mph. Friday Night... Clear. Low 39. Wind chill values as low as 32 degrees are possible. Winds northeast 5-10 mph. Saturday... Mostly sunny. High 68. Winds east 5-10 mph. Saturday Night... Mostly clear. Low 46. Winds east 4-8 mph. Sunday... Partly cloudy. High 71. Winds east 5-10 mph. Sunday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 53. Winds east-southeast 4-8 mph. Monday... Partly cloudy. High 75. Winds southeast 5-10 mph. Monday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 56. Winds southeast 4-8 mph.

Technical Discussion

Synopsis: Skies have cleared nicely across the Mobile area this afternoon. The stratoculumus deck of clouds that was over the area this morning has moved to our south, and skies are now mostly sunny across the region. A ridge of high pressure (centered over Oklahoma) is beginning to move into the region. Forecast Discussion (Tonight Through Monday): The main weather story is the cold airmass moving into the region. If tonight's forecasted low of 38 is reached, it will be the coldest value so far this fall season at KMOB. With clear skies, temperatures will likely fall rapidly after sunset. Models indicate that winds will remain rather strong (in the 5-15 mph range) tonight, so that may temper the cooling trend somewhat. Still, MOS guidance indicates lows in the upper 30's tonight, and will go close to MAV and MET guidance. Models indicating the ridge of high pressure remaining over the area through most of the weekend. In the upper levels, models indicate mostly zonal flow at 500 mb, with no perturbations in the mean flow. At 700 and 850 mb, ridging will continue across the area. Friday will be similar to today, with high temperatures in the middle 60's. Friday night will be cold once again under clear skies. Once again on Friday night, models indicating that winds will stay in the 5-10 mph range, so lows may not be as cold as they could be. By Saturday, as the center of high pressure moves east, winds will shift to a more easterly direction. This will continue through Sunday. Models indicate a slight increase in moisture Saturday night through Sunday, but no rainfall is expected as lifting mechanisms will not be strong. Temperatures will moderate slightly by the end of the weekend, but no significant WAA is expected through the weekend. By Monday, WAA will become better established across the area. As a result, temperatures will continue to warm and moisture will continue to increase as surface wind flow becomes southeasterly. The GFS indicate some light QPF near the area by Monday afternoon, and MEX guidance increases PoP's to around 20%. For now, will just introduce a 'silent' 10 PoP in the official forecast and will continue to watch the evolution of models for early next week. Nevertheless, no significant weather systems are expected through the forecast period. ML

Hazardous Weather

Hazardous Weather Outlook (Thursday through Monday): No hazardous weather is expected through the forecast period.

Astronomical and Climatological Data
Moon Phase Gibbous Waxing Sunset 5:03 PM Sunrise 6:08 AM	11/02/06 Normal High Record High Normal Low Record Low Temperature 75°F 87°F (1971) 51°F 30°F (1966) November Normal Wettest Driest Precipitation 5.41 in. 13.65 in. (1948) 0.06 in. (1924)