Wednesday Night Forecast

Forecast issued by Randy Bowers on 10/25/06 at 5:20:56 pm CDT

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Tonight	Tomorrow	Friday	Saturday	Sunday
	74°F	77°F	71°F	75°F
55°F		63°F	55°F	50°F
SE 10-15 mph	SE 10-15 mph	S 10-20 mph	W 5-10 mph	NE 4-8 mph
30%	50%	60%	0%	0%

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Detailed Forecast

.Tonight... Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Low near 55. Southeast winds 5-10 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent. .Thursday...Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. High around 74. Southeast winds 10-15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent. .Thursday Night... Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms becoming likely. Low near 63. South winds 10-20 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent. .Friday...Showers and thunderstorms likely through early afternoon with a chance of showers during the late afternoon. Otherwise, mostly cloudy. High around 77. South wind around 15-25 mph, shifting to the northwest by mid-afternoon. Chance of rain 60 percent. .Friday Night... Mostly cloudy during the evening. Decreasing clouds after midnight. Low around 55. Northwest wind at 5-10 mph. .Saturday... Partly cloudy. High around 71. West wind at 5-10 mph. Saturday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 50. Winds west 5-10 mph. Sunday... Partly cloudy. High 75. Winds northeast 4-8 mph. Sunday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 54. Winds northeast 2-4 mph.

Technical Discussion

Synopsis: Sfc analysis showing sfc ridge extending from Great Lakes region Swrd to just east of KPNS. This places our area in SErly flow at the surface. Expecting SErly/Srly flow to increase throughout the next 24 hrs in response to lee cyclogenisis. Mid/upper feature responsible for this will shift Ewrd and bring pcpn Thur-Fri. Some timing differences among models resulting in a low-confidence forecast. GFS/ECMWF/SREF are all faster than NAM/NOGAPS/NGM. Overall, the models are in agreement in intensity and the overall patter, however. GFS' less amplified/less intense solution converges with the more amplified/more intense NAM solution after about 36-48 hrs. In the short term, mid-level cloud deck limiting insolation and holding temperatures slightly below previously forecast values. Large scale weak isentropic lift has resulting in some very light pcpn across the area, which has thus far not been measurable. Believe this will continue through the rest of the evening. Forecast mstr profiles indicate a continued moistening of the column overnight and during the day tomorrow, partly due to Paul in the Ern Pacific. Will take this into account for cloud cover--continuing with >3/4 sky cover until fropa occurs on Friday. Model QPF fields not handling isentropic pcpn scenario well attm. Believe a slight adjustment upward of MOS for first and second period, both based on models' poor handling of ongoing QPF as previously mentioned, and WAA pcpn potential. Best pcpn chance comes with fropa which is expected on Friday. Have decided to lean toward the NAM timing of mid/upper shortwave which would lead to a mid-day fropa on Friday. Question remains as to whether convective complex will form west of our area and reach us by early morning or whether main focus for pcpn will be with the actual fropa. For now, have went with likely PoPs Thur night and Friday to account for timing uncertainties and uncertainties in convective mode. Models do show at least some instability in pre-frontal warm sector Thur night/Friday. Despite abundant moisture, poor lapse rates yeild marginal CAPE values at best. Shear profiles would favor organized convection, with AOA 50 kt 0-6km shear present. 40-50 kt LLJ also progged by both GFS and NAM. Believe severe threat does exist. However, uncertainty in evolution of convection to our west limits confidence in severe threat attm. If better instability can be realized (given lack of widespread pre-frontal/WAA pcpn and clouds or MCS formation), severe potential would go up on Fri. Post-fropa dry/stable air mass results in dry weekend. Zonal flow aloft to bring another shortward toward our area by the beginning of next week. Pior to that, near climo temps expected per MEX.

Hazardous Weather

Today through Friday A storm system and associated cold front will approach the area Thursday night into Friday, resulting in an increased risk of showers and thunderstorms. There is a risk of strong to isolated severe thunderstorms with this system. The amount of instability is in question, but strong wind shear is expected across the region. The main risk with any severe storms would likely be damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. Please keep up to date with the latest forecasts concerning this weather system. Saturday and Sunday No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Astronomical and Climatological Data
Moon Phase Crescent Waxing Sunset 6:10 PM Sunrise 7:02 AM	10/25/06 Normal High Record High Normal Low Record Low Temperature 77°F 88°F (1927) 53°F 38°F (1999) October Normal Wettest Driest Precipitation 3.25 in. 13.20 in. (1985) 0.00 in. (1874)

10/25 in Mobile Area Weather History

In 1977 a morning storm produced a tornado that overturned a mobile home and damaged several other homes in the communities of Foley, Robertsdale, and Loxley in Baldwin County, AL. Also, in 1997 a midday storm produced an F0 tornado near Greenville in Butler County, AL where it caused major damage to a metal garage and caused timber damage. That afternoon, another storm produced a tornado in the Howell community of George County, MS that moved into Mobile County, AL and damaged outbuildings and trees before dissipating near highway 98 west of Wilmer. (Data compiled from NWS Mobile, NWS Birmingham, newspaper articles, USA Archives and HurricaneCity.com)