Tuesday Morning Forecast

Forecast issued by Justin Gibbs on 10/17/06 at 2:06:07 am CDT

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Today	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday
79°F	88°F	85°F	81°F	78°F
	69°F	70°F	63°F	60°F
S 10-20 mph	SW 5-10 mph	SW 10-15 mph	S 5-10 mph	SE 5-10 mph
100%	20%	40%	0%	0%

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Detailed Forecast

Today... Cloudy with rain and thunderstorms in the morning. Some storms may be severe with isolated tornadoes and damaging winds. Chance of rain is near 100 percent. Becoming partly cloudy by afternoon with a 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. High 79. Winds south 10-20 mph. Tonight... Partly cloudy. Low 69. Winds west 4-8 mph. Wednesday... Partly cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms. High 88. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Wednesday Night... Partly cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms. Low 70. Winds south 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Thursday... Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. High 85. Winds southwest 10-15 mph. Chance of rain is 40 percent. Thursday Night... Mostly clear. Low 63. Winds west 2-4 mph. Friday... Partly cloudy. High 81. Winds south 5-10 mph. Friday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 60. Winds southeast 2-4 mph. Saturday... Partly cloudy. High 78. Winds southeast 5-10 mph.

Technical Discussion

Synopsis: Dynamically impressive severe weather episode continues this hour across the northcentral gulf coast region. Wind has shifted in the past few hours from east southeast around 7 pm...to a mostly southerly sfc flow at 15-20kts with higher gusts. KLIX/KMOB VWPs give us a better look at the flow just off the surface which also indicates a "more" unidirecitonal but still rather veered with height flow with about 40 degrees of turning from 925mb to the middle levels. Regional 88D network indicates healthy and so far sustaining MCS/Squall line with embedded bows and LEWPs. SPC has announced intentions to reissue TOA after the 7z expriation. 0-1km SRH values per RUC fcst soundings are still very impressive this morning between 450-650 m2/s2. Am also intrigued by what appears to be a slight increase in SB instability just ahead of the squall line where flow becomes more south/southwesterly perhaps entraining some slightly warmer low level air that saw more plentiful daytime heating before this afternoons rounds. Forecast Discussion (Tuesday through Saturday): Short Term... Linear extrapolation puts this line knocking on our door in the 6 am hour. Guidance appears as one would expect with a forward propogating MCS to drag it about 12 hours too slow. Will increase 1st period pops to categorical for the AM hours and taper back to chc for the 12pm-6pm in case we get a slowing of the frontal boundary. Gambut of severe weather appears possible as the highly sheared MCS with embedded Bow/LEWP segments moves through. Will reup SWU for the severe weather threats. CFW/Wind advisory remains in through 12z as well. It appears the threat will diminish shortly after high tide once the frontal boundary moves through but gusty winds will remain until the main convection cluster moves through. GFS/NAM both agree on a 18z FROPA across the region and forecast guidance/current analysis indicate solid drying behind the front so will taper pops to lochc for the afternoon hours just in case we see some lingering precip just ahead of a slightly slowed frontal passage. Long Term... Will generally stick with going forecast beyond this point as it appears to be in good shape. Low level flow becomes southerly ahead of another storm system that will move in on Thursday. Will remain on track with the going 20 pops Wednesday Afternoon. The only trick to this fcst regards a shift in the frontal timing by the GFS...which now brings the front through late Wednesday/Early Thursday instead of the GFSs solution for bringing it through and stalling it on Thursday. 500mb picture shows a phasing jet stream around a building ridge over NRN GA/WRN TN as the main continental jet moves in Thursday. This would hint at a slightly faster frontal passage so will introduce for now 20% pops to the Wednesday night forecast to put us in a better position for updates down the road. Will also make a few tweaks to the wind forecast to hint at the possiblity of a faster frontal passage. Will keep the general forecast intact Thursday/Thursday night as I believe a Thu Night pop will remain prudent regardless of the final solution because it appears probable we will see some form of boundary stalling due to the relative projected weakness in deep layer flow as you get further south.

Hazardous Weather

Hazardous Weather Outlook (Tuesday through Saturday): See The Special Weather Update product for information regarding todays hazardous weather threats. Beyond today no widespread hazardous weather is expected during the forecast period.

Astronomical and Climatological Data
Moon Phase Crescent Waning Sunrise 6:55 AM Sunset 6:18 PM	10/17/06 Normal High Record High Normal Low Record Low Temperature 79°F 90°F (1972) 55°F 38°F (1991) October Normal Wettest Driest Precipitation 3.25 in. 13.20 in. (1985) 0.00 in. (1874)