Tuesday Evening Forecast

Forecast issued by Michael Leach on 10/31/06 at 3:34:37 pm CST

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Tonight	Tomorrow	Thursday	Friday	Saturday
	80°F	70°F	69°F	70°F
60°F		55°F	43°F	43°F
Lgt & Var	Var 4-8 mph	N 7-14 mph	NE 5-10 mph	ENE 4-8 mph
10%	20%	20%	0%	0%

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Detailed Forecast

Tonight… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 60. Winds variable and light. Tomorrow... Partly cloudy with isolated showers. High 80. Winds variable 4-8 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Wednesday Night... Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Low 55. Winds northwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Thursday... Partly cloudy with isolated showers, mainly in the morning. High 70. Winds north 7-14 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Thursday Night... Mostly clear. Low 43. Winds north 5-10 mph. Friday... Mostly sunny. High 69. Winds northeast 5-10 mph. Friday Night... Mostly clear. Low 43. Winds northeast 4-8 mph. Saturday... Mostly sunny. High 70. Winds east-northeast 4-8 mph. Saturday Night... Mostly clear. Low 47. Winds east 4-8 mph.

Technical Discussion

Forecast Discussion (Tonight through Saturday): The main focus of this forecast is the cold front expected to pass across the region this week and the associated rain chances. Rain chances look low with this front, as the better upper level dynamics will remain well to the north of the Mobile region. Models indicating very little QPF as the front moves through. MOS members in agreement with only slight PoP's for Wednesday and Wednesday night, and will indicate 20% PoP's for this period. On Thursday, the MAV MOS basically removes PoP's, while the MET guidance still indicates PoP's around 20%, especially early in the day. I thought about removing PoP's completely for Thursday, but left in a 20 PoP, especially for the morning hours. Wednesday looks to be another warm day, with high temperatures around 5 degrees above average for this time of the year. By late Wednesday night and Thursday morning, winds are expected to shift to the northwest and eventually north behind the front. CAA will take control of the weather, and cooler temperatures will affect the region. Thursday night looks rather chilly, with skies becoming mostly clear. Models indicate winds staying in the 5-10 mph range Thursday night, but if the winds are lighter, the low may be cooler than the 43 now forecasted. On Friday and Saturday, a ridge of high pressure will be in control of the weather. CAA and subsidence will continue both days, leading to mostly sunny days and cool nights. High temperatures will struggle to get out of the 60's, with lows again in the lower 40's on Friday night. ML

Hazardous Weather

Hazardous Weather Outlook (Tuesday through Saturday): No hazardous weather is expected through the forecast period.

Astronomical and Climatological Data
Moon Phase Gibbous Waxing Sunset 5:05 PM Sunrise 6:06 AM	10/31/06 Normal High Record High Normal Low Record Low Temperature 75°F 88°F (1950) 51°F 30°F (1993) October Normal Wettest Driest Precipitation 3.25 in. 13.20 in. (1985) 0.00 in. (1874)

10/31 in Mobile Area Weather History

In 1897 an F2 tornado hit the Seminole community in Baldwin County, AL killing one person and injuring 5 others. Small homes were destroyed along the tornado's path. (Data compiled from NWS Mobile, NWS Birmingham, newspaper articles, USA Archives, US Hurricanes and HurricaneCity.com)