Tuesday Evening Forecast

Forecast issued by Michael Leach on 10/24/06 at 3:11:43 pm CDT

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Tonight	Tomorrow	Thursday	Friday	Saturday
	72°F	76°F	75°F	71°F
46°F		57°F	63°F	57°F
N 4-8 mph	E 5-10 mph	S 7-14 mph	W 10-15 mph	N 5-10 mph
0%	10%	50%	30%	0%

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Detailed Forecast

Tonight… Mostly clear. Low around 43. Winds north 4-8 mph. Tomorrow... Partly cloudy. High around 73. Winds east 5-10 mph. Wednesday Night... Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low near 47. Winds southeast 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 30 percent. Thursday... Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. High around 75. Winds south 7-14 mph. Chance of rain is 50 percent. Thursday Night... Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low near 60. Winds south 7-14 mph. Chance of rain is 50 percent. Friday... Scattered showers and thunderstorms in the morning. Decreasing clouds in the afternoon. High around 78. Winds west 10-15 mph. Chance of rain is 30 percent. Friday Night... Partly cloudy. Low around 57. Winds northwest 5-10 mph. Saturday... Mostly sunny. High near 75. Winds north 5-10 mph. Saturday Night... Clear. Low around 50. Winds north 4-8 mph.

Technical Discussion

Forecast Discussion (Tuesday through Saturday): Another mostly clear, cool night can be expected tonight, but temperatures will likely be warmer than last night. MOS indicates wind speeds a little higher tonight, leading to more mixing in the atmosphere. By Wednesday evening, WAA should begin kicking in as 850 mb winds become southerly in direction and increase in speed. This will lead to more lifting across the area, and will include a chance of SHRA/TSRA beginning on Wednesday Night. Thursday looks to be the most active day during the forecast period. A developing low pressure area across the southern Plains will move to the east-northeast on Wednesday, passing to the north of the area on Thursday. GFS indicates that the low will pass over the northern portions of the Tennessee Valley region, while the NAM shows the associated low a little farther north over the Ohio Valley. The NAM indicates a strong low level jet (possibly on the order of 50 kts.) passing over the area on Thursday, especially over the inland areas. The GFS is a little weaker with the LLJ, indicating speeds of 30-40 kts. Forecast model soundings also indicate quite a bit of wind shear on Thursday across the area. The question will be the amount of instability. A look at the NAM/WRF forecast for 72 hours (early Friday morning) shows around 1000 J/Kg of SBCAPE over the region. This value may be a little higher on Thursday afternoon and evening. With this said, there could be some strong to severe thunderstorms on Thursday. SWODY3 from the SPC includes our area in a slight risk of severe weather on Thursday. Will let later shifts go into more detail on the threat of severe weather. As far as PoP's go for Thursday, will go 50/50 for Thursday and Thursday night at this time. Feel that we will see likely PoP's at some point during this period, but disagreement between MOS members leads to a lower confidence forecast. MAV indicates likely PoP's only on Thursday night, while the MET indicates likely PoP's all periods Wednesday night through Thursday night. Believe the MET is a little too agressive with moisture return, and will lean closer to the MAV. Later shifts can fine-tune this PoP forecast. Models tend to be trending a little slower with the fropa associated with this system. Because of this, I added a low-end chance PoP to Friday. Indicated that the best chance would probably be Friday morning, and indicated decreasing clouds by Friday afternoon. Saturday should be a nice day, with fropa behind us and CAA leading to subsidence across the area. Temperatures will cool down some after fropa, but don't look as cool as the temperatures we have been dealing with early this week. ML

Hazardous Weather

Hazardous Weather Outlook (Tuesday through Saturday): A storm system and associated cold front will approach the area on Thursday, resulting in an increased risk of showers and thunderstorms. There is a risk of strong to isolated severe thunderstorms with this system. The amount of instability is in question, but strong wind shear is expected across the region. The main risk with any severe storms would likely be damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. Please keep up to date with the latest forecasts concerning this weather system.

Astronomical and Climatological Data
Moon Phase Crescent Waxing Sunset 6:11 PM Sunrise 7:01 AM	10/24/06 Normal High Record High Normal Low Record Low Temperature 77°F 89°F (1941) 53°F 37°F (1999) October Normal Wettest Driest Precipitation 3.25 in. 13.20 in. (1985) 0.00 in. (1874)