Friday Evening Forecast

Forecast issued by Michael Leach on 10/13/06 at 2:27:10 pm CDT

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Tonight	Tomorrow	Sunday	Monday	Tuesday
	78°F	81°F	80°F	83°F
49°F		57°F	68°F	74°F
NNE 5-10 mph	E 5-10 mph	ESE 10-15 mph	S 10-15 mph	SW 7-14 mph
0%	0%	20%	60%	60%

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Detailed Forecast

Tonight… Decreasing clouds. Low 49. Winds north-northeast 5-10 mph. Tomorrow... Mostly sunny. High 78. Winds east 5-10 mph. Saturday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 57. Winds east 5-10 mph. Sunday... Increasing clouds with isolated showers and thunderstorms. High 81. Winds east-southeast 10-15 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Sunday Night... Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low 68. Winds east-southeast 10-15 mph. Chance of rain is 40 percent. Monday... Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. High 80. Winds south 10-15 mph. Chance of rain is 60 percent. Monday Night... Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low 74. Winds south 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 60 percent. Tuesday... Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. High 83. Winds southwest 7-14 mph. Chance of rain is 60 percent. Tuesday Night... Partly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low 71. Winds west-southwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 40 percent.

Technical Discussion

Synopsis: Cooler air is flowing into the Mobile area behind a cold front. After some rain earlier today, skies are expected to clear late this afternoon, leading to a mostly clear night tonight. With the cloud cover and rain, temperatures have struggled to warm through the 50's this afternoon. 19z temp at KMOB was 62 degrees, with BKN skies still reported. A N to NE breeze averaging between 7 and 14 mph has made conditions outside feel even cooler. Short Term (Friday through Sunday): Main concerns for Friday and Saturday are temps. MOS guidance has cooled slightly from yesterday, and now indicates lows in the upper 40's to around 50 tonight. Will basically take a split of MAV and MET guidance, and call for a low of 49 tonight at KMOB. Saturday looks like a nice day, with continued CAA and subsidence occurring. Mostly sunny skies can be expected, with highs warming into the upper 70's with the abundant sunshine. By Sunday, surface winds and 850 mb winds are expected to begin coming out of the east-southeast, signaling a return to a WAA pattern over the area. With the increase in moisture, will indicate a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms by Sunday afternoon. By Sunday night, the GFS indicates a weak area of low pressure developing to the west over the Texas-Louisiana coast. The GFS is indicating a bullseye of precipitation around this low, possibly indicating a MCS developing. The WRF does indicate some moisture in this region, but is not as robust as the GFS. Will bring rain chances into the chance range for Sunday night. Long Term (Monday through Tuesday): The GFS and WRF differ in details with regard to early next week. The GFS continues to progress the MCS eastward, bringing it over our region on Monday. The NAM does not indicate the MCS, and holds back the deepest moisture until Monday night at the earliest. As a result of this, MEX guidance ramps up PoP's to around 90% on Monday. Going by WRF graphics, PoP's would likely be in the high chance or likely range. The GFS could possibly be suffering from convective feedback, and will not go as high on PoP's as the GFS. Have decided to go with 60% PoP for Monday and Monday night. If the GFS did verify, we could be looking at a heavy rainfall situation across the area. As far as thunderstorms go, the system does not look as good dynamically as it did a few days ago. Still, the GFS is indicating some rather strong winds (around 40 kts.) at 850 mb on Monday. The WRF indicates similar 850 mb winds, but farther to the west on Monday as it is slower than the GFS with the system. The GFS also indicates some slightly negative LI's. With this said, I would not be surprised to see some strong storms sometime in the Monday-Tuesday period, but severe weather looks iffy at this time. If the NAM were to verify, Tuesday would probably be wetter than Monday, and vice versa if the GFS verified. For this reason, decided to just go with 60% PoP's through Tuesday afternoon, tapering down to 40% Tuesday night. Temperatures should continue to warm throughout the period due to WAA. Earlier MEX guidance indicated highs around 90 on Tuesday, but has since cooled down. Will just indicate a gradual increase in temps through the period. ML

Hazardous Weather

Short Term (Friday through Sunday): No hazardous weather is expected. Long Term (Monday through Tuesday): Rain and thunderstorm chances will be on the increase during the early portion of next week as a storm system approaches the area. At this time, it appears that a few strong storms will be possible on Monday and Tuesday. Widespread severe weather is not expected at this time. Also, locally heavy rainfall will be possible. Since this system is still a few days away, forecasts are likely to change. Please stay tuned to a good forecast source as we head into the weekend.

Astronomical and Climatological Data
Moon Phase Last Sunset 6:23 PM Sunrise 6:53 AM	10/13/06 Normal High Record High Normal Low Record Low Temperature 80°F 92°F (1963) 57°F 41°F (1977) October Normal Wettest Driest Precipitation 3.25 in. 13.20 in. (1985) 0.00 in. (1874)

10/13 in Mobile Area Weather History

In 2001 an outbreak of 9 tornadoes affected the central Gulf Coast with 8 affecting Baldwin County, AL alone. Of the 9 tornadoes, 5 were rated F0, 1 was rated F1, 1 was rated F2, and 1 was an F3. The F3 tornado hit south of the Grove Home Trailer Park in Baldwin County, AL and moved northeast, destroying 5 large cement block buildings, leveled a mobile home, damaging several other mobile homes, carried a large panel truck filled with heavy tools about 60 feet and tossed several other vehicles 15-25 feet and downed numerous trees in its path. The F2 tornado hit southeast of Robertsdale in Baldwin County, AL where it destroyed 3 mobile homes, damaged 17 mobile homes and downed several large Pecan trees. The F1 tornado hit near Fairhope in Baldwin County, AL where it caused major damage to a warehouse and downed several trees along with a fence. Later, an F0 tornado moved ashore in Gulf Shores in Baldwin County, AL during a Shrimp Festival. The tornado damaged several booths and caused damage to some homes along 6th avenue. Another F0 hit near Montrose in Baldwin County, AL and downed several trees. Yet another F0 tornado hit near the Grove Home Trailer Park in Baldwin County, AL where it downed several trees and a large fence near the Park along CR 75. The other F0 tornado hit near Spanish Fort in Baldwin County, AL where it formed near Meaher Park on the Causeway and jumped across the Causeway and struck the Pineda Island subdivision. The tornado damaged several trees. (Data compiled from NWS Mobile, NWS Birmingham, newspaper articles, USA Archives, US Hurricanes and HurricaneCity.com)