Friday Evening Forecast

Forecast issued by Michael Leach on 10/06/06 at 1:16:20 pm CDT

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Tonight	Tomorrow	Sunday	Monday	Tuesday
	81°F	82°F	83°F	84°F
57°F		55°F	59°F	63°F
N 4-8 mph	N 5-10 mph	NE 5-10 mph	ENE 5-10 mph	SE 5-10 mph
0%	0%	0%	0%	10%

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Detailed Forecast

Tonight… Mostly clear. Low 57. Winds north 4-8 mph. Tomorrow... Sunny. High 81. Winds north 5-10 mph. Saturday Night... Clear. Low 55. Winds northeast 4-8 mph. Sunday... Sunny. High 82. Winds northeast 5-10 mph. Sunday Night... Mostly clear. Low 59. Winds east-northeast 4-8 mph. Monday... Mostly sunny. High 83. Winds east-northeast 5-10 mph. Monday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 63. Winds east-northeast 4-8 mph. Tuesday... Partly cloudy. High 84. Winds southeast 5-10 mph. Tuesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 65. Winds south-southeast 4-8 mph.

Technical Discussion

Synopsis: A dry cold front moved through the area this morning around 12z. Northerly winds have ushered in a cooler air mass across the area, with 19z temps running near 80 degrees, compared with upper 80's to around 90 degrees at the same time yesterday. A few clouds moved into the area in association with the front, but those have since cleared away leaving a sunny afternoon across the area. Wind speeds have averaged between 5 and 10 mph today, with a few higher gusts. Short Term (Tonight through Sunday): Dry northerly to northeasterly flow aloft and at the surface will continue across the area throughout the weekend. In the upper levels, the area will be caught between a developing upper level low to our northeast across the Carolinas, and a ridge shifting/building to our west. CAA will likely continue throughout the weekend, indicating subsidence will remain across the area. MOS guidance has continue to cool slightly for the weekend, and thus, this forecast is a touch cooler than the previous one. MET guidance was especially cool, indicating upper 70's for highs on both Saturday and Sunday. Did not go quite as low as MET guidance, and stayed relatively close to MAV guidance, indicating highs in the lower 80's and lows in the middle to upper 50's throughout the weekend. Long Term (Monday through Tuesday): CAA should weaken, and eventually WAA will take over during the long term period. Monday should be similar to Saturday and Sunday, but by Tuesday, winds will begin to shift to the Southeast and WAA will begin over the area. The result will be an increase in clouds, and possibily an isolated rain chance by Tuesday. Timing is still in question, so will introduce only a 'silent' 10 PoP at this time and indicate an increase in clouds. By Tuesday, temperatures should return to above seasonable normals. On Tuesday, the GFS indicates a rather amplified trough developing over the Midwest and Rocky Mountain states. This storm system, and associated stronger cold front, may affect the area by the middle or latter part of next week. This is beyond the range of this forecast, but it may be the next interesting weather system to affect our area. ML

Hazardous Weather

Hazardous Weather Outlook (Friday through Tuesday): No hazardous weather is expected through the forecast period.

Astronomical and Climatological Data
Moon Phase Full Moon Sunset 6:31 PM Sunrise 6:49 AM	10/06/06 Normal High Record High Normal Low Record Low Temperature 82°F 93°F (1941) 61°F 43°F (1932) October Normal Wettest Driest Precipitation 3.25 in. 13.20 in. (1985) 0.00 in. (1874)

10/06 in Mobile Area Weather History

In 1906 a morning storm produced an F2 tornado that leveled a home and downed numerous trees from Oak Grove to an area between Kushlin and Manville in Mobile County, AL. (Data compiled from NWS Mobile, NWS Birmingham, newspaper articles, USA Archives and HurricaneCity.com)