Forecast issued by Michael Leach on 10/26/06 at 3:43:10 pm CDT

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Tonight	Tomorrow	Saturday	Sunday	Monday
	77°F	68°F	74°F	75°F
65°F		56°F	51°F	53°F
SE 10-15 mph	S 10-20 mph	WNW 5-10 mph	W 5-10 mph	E 5-10 mph
80%	80%	0%	0%	0%

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Detailed Forecast

Tonight… Mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the evening, then showers and thunderstorms becoming more numerous after midnight. A few storms may be severe late. Low 65. Winds southeast 10-15 mph. Chance of rain is 80 percent. Tomorrow... Showers and thunderstorms. A few storms may be severe and rainfall may be heavy at times. High 77. Winds south 10-20 mph. Chance of rain is 80 percent. Friday Night... Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the evening. Low 56. Winds northwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 40 percent. Saturday... Partly cloudy. High 68. Winds west-northwest 5-10 mph. Saturday Night... Mostly clear. Low 51. Winds west-northwest light. Sunday... Mostly sunny. High 74. Winds west 5-10 mph. Sunday Night... Mostly clear. Low 53. Winds variable and light. Monday... Partly cloudy. High 75. Winds east 5-10 mph. Monday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 54. Winds east light.

Technical Discussion

Forecast Discussion (Tonight through Monday): The risk of severe weather and the potential for heavy rainfall tonight and Friday are the main concerns for theis forecast period. Currently, Doppler radar indicates scattered showers near the Mobile area, with more extensive rain occurring to our north and west. Scattered showers are expected to continue into the evening hours. Rain chances will likely increase late tonight with continue overrunning moistening up the atmosphere, and a warm front approaches the area. The 12z NAM is a little slower than the 12z GFS, and am leaning toward the slower solution at this time. The NAM ramps up the LLJ Friday morning with the strongest LLJ now indicated around 18z. The GFS is a little quicker, and shows the strongest LLJ sometime between 12-15z. The NAM also increases CAPE values to a peak around 18z. NAM graphics indicate SBCAPE possibly between 1000-1200 J/Kg. A look at a NAM (or ETA) forecasted sounding for the same time, however, indicates closer to 500 J/kg of "skinny CAPE" with a very saturated sounding. PWAT values will likely increase to in excess of 2 inches on Friday (the PWAT at LIX was already at 1.72" as of this morning's 12z sounding). Wind fields look fairly unidirectional on Friday, with quite a bit of speed shear but not much directional shear in place over the region. With this said, looks like damaging winds will be the main threat with any severe storms across the region. Isolated tornadoes are also possible, but with models indicating basically unidirectional shear, damaging winds appear to be more likely than tornadoes. Also, any storms could contain heavy rainfall and some training of storms may be possible, especially if the cold front slows down. Right now, we don't anticipate any widespread major flooding problems, but poor drainage and low-lying areas could have some flooding with the heavier thunderstorms. Rain chances look very good through Friday afternoon, and will go with categorical PoP's (80%) for these periods. Believe the models are a little too quick with fropa, and will go with a slightly slower fropa than what models indicate. Therefore, will hold on to higher rain chances than MOS members for Friday night, and will go a category or two above MOS guidance for minimum temps Friday night. By Saturday, the front should have already passed, and we should have clearing skies. Temperatures will cool down some behind the front (especially low temps), but don't look as cool as what we dealt with earlier this week. CAA and subsidence should continue through Monday, with high pressure remaining in control of the weather for the weekend through the early part of next week. ML

Hazardous Weather

Hazardous Weather Outlook (Thursday through Monday): There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across the area late tonight and during the day on Friday as a storm system and associated cold front approach the area. The main risk with any severe storms will be damaging winds and possibly isolated tornadoes. Also, locally heavy rainfall can be expected with the heavier thunderstorms. Although widespread flooding is not expected, poor drainage and low-lying areas could experience flooding, especially if thunderstorms persist over the area for an extended period of time. Beyond Friday, no hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Astronomical and Climatological Data
Moon Phase Crescent Waxing Sunset 6:09 PM Sunrise 7:03 AM	10/26/06 Normal High Record High Normal Low Record Low Temperature 76°F 87°F (1936) 52°F 37°F (1990) October Normal Wettest Driest Precipitation 3.25 in. 13.20 in. (1985) 0.00 in. (1874)

10/26 in Mobile Area Weather History

In 1937 an afternoon storm spawned an F2 tornado on the Mobile waterfront in Mobile County, AL. The tornado injured 3 as it tore through piers, shipping facilities, and businesses. (Data compiled from NWS Mobile, NWS Birmingham, newspaper articles, USA Archives, US Hurricanes and HurricaneCity.com)