Tuesday Evening Forecast

Forecast issued by Michael Leach on 10/31/06 at 3:34:37 pm CST

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Tonight	Tomorrow	Thursday	Friday	Saturday
	80°F	70°F	69°F	70°F
60°F		55°F	43°F	43°F
Lgt & Var	Var 4-8 mph	N 7-14 mph	NE 5-10 mph	ENE 4-8 mph
10%	20%	20%	0%	0%

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Detailed Forecast

Tonight… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 60. Winds variable and light. Tomorrow... Partly cloudy with isolated showers. High 80. Winds variable 4-8 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Wednesday Night... Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Low 55. Winds northwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Thursday... Partly cloudy with isolated showers, mainly in the morning. High 70. Winds north 7-14 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Thursday Night... Mostly clear. Low 43. Winds north 5-10 mph. Friday... Mostly sunny. High 69. Winds northeast 5-10 mph. Friday Night... Mostly clear. Low 43. Winds northeast 4-8 mph. Saturday... Mostly sunny. High 70. Winds east-northeast 4-8 mph. Saturday Night... Mostly clear. Low 47. Winds east 4-8 mph.

Technical Discussion

Forecast Discussion (Tonight through Saturday): The main focus of this forecast is the cold front expected to pass across the region this week and the associated rain chances. Rain chances look low with this front, as the better upper level dynamics will remain well to the north of the Mobile region. Models indicating very little QPF as the front moves through. MOS members in agreement with only slight PoP's for Wednesday and Wednesday night, and will indicate 20% PoP's for this period. On Thursday, the MAV MOS basically removes PoP's, while the MET guidance still indicates PoP's around 20%, especially early in the day. I thought about removing PoP's completely for Thursday, but left in a 20 PoP, especially for the morning hours. Wednesday looks to be another warm day, with high temperatures around 5 degrees above average for this time of the year. By late Wednesday night and Thursday morning, winds are expected to shift to the northwest and eventually north behind the front. CAA will take control of the weather, and cooler temperatures will affect the region. Thursday night looks rather chilly, with skies becoming mostly clear. Models indicate winds staying in the 5-10 mph range Thursday night, but if the winds are lighter, the low may be cooler than the 43 now forecasted. On Friday and Saturday, a ridge of high pressure will be in control of the weather. CAA and subsidence will continue both days, leading to mostly sunny days and cool nights. High temperatures will struggle to get out of the 60's, with lows again in the lower 40's on Friday night. ML

Hazardous Weather

Hazardous Weather Outlook (Tuesday through Saturday): No hazardous weather is expected through the forecast period.

Astronomical and Climatological Data
Moon Phase Gibbous Waxing Sunset 5:05 PM Sunrise 6:06 AM	10/31/06 Normal High Record High Normal Low Record Low Temperature 75°F 88°F (1950) 51°F 30°F (1993) October Normal Wettest Driest Precipitation 3.25 in. 13.20 in. (1985) 0.00 in. (1874)

10/31 in Mobile Area Weather History

In 1897 an F2 tornado hit the Seminole community in Baldwin County, AL killing one person and injuring 5 others. Small homes were destroyed along the tornado's path. (Data compiled from NWS Mobile, NWS Birmingham, newspaper articles, USA Archives, US Hurricanes and HurricaneCity.com)

Forecast issued by Michael Leach on 10/26/06 at 3:43:10 pm CDT

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Tonight	Tomorrow	Saturday	Sunday	Monday
	77°F	68°F	74°F	75°F
65°F		56°F	51°F	53°F
SE 10-15 mph	S 10-20 mph	WNW 5-10 mph	W 5-10 mph	E 5-10 mph
80%	80%	0%	0%	0%

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Detailed Forecast

Tonight… Mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the evening, then showers and thunderstorms becoming more numerous after midnight. A few storms may be severe late. Low 65. Winds southeast 10-15 mph. Chance of rain is 80 percent. Tomorrow... Showers and thunderstorms. A few storms may be severe and rainfall may be heavy at times. High 77. Winds south 10-20 mph. Chance of rain is 80 percent. Friday Night... Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the evening. Low 56. Winds northwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 40 percent. Saturday... Partly cloudy. High 68. Winds west-northwest 5-10 mph. Saturday Night... Mostly clear. Low 51. Winds west-northwest light. Sunday... Mostly sunny. High 74. Winds west 5-10 mph. Sunday Night... Mostly clear. Low 53. Winds variable and light. Monday... Partly cloudy. High 75. Winds east 5-10 mph. Monday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 54. Winds east light.

Technical Discussion

Forecast Discussion (Tonight through Monday): The risk of severe weather and the potential for heavy rainfall tonight and Friday are the main concerns for theis forecast period. Currently, Doppler radar indicates scattered showers near the Mobile area, with more extensive rain occurring to our north and west. Scattered showers are expected to continue into the evening hours. Rain chances will likely increase late tonight with continue overrunning moistening up the atmosphere, and a warm front approaches the area. The 12z NAM is a little slower than the 12z GFS, and am leaning toward the slower solution at this time. The NAM ramps up the LLJ Friday morning with the strongest LLJ now indicated around 18z. The GFS is a little quicker, and shows the strongest LLJ sometime between 12-15z. The NAM also increases CAPE values to a peak around 18z. NAM graphics indicate SBCAPE possibly between 1000-1200 J/Kg. A look at a NAM (or ETA) forecasted sounding for the same time, however, indicates closer to 500 J/kg of "skinny CAPE" with a very saturated sounding. PWAT values will likely increase to in excess of 2 inches on Friday (the PWAT at LIX was already at 1.72" as of this morning's 12z sounding). Wind fields look fairly unidirectional on Friday, with quite a bit of speed shear but not much directional shear in place over the region. With this said, looks like damaging winds will be the main threat with any severe storms across the region. Isolated tornadoes are also possible, but with models indicating basically unidirectional shear, damaging winds appear to be more likely than tornadoes. Also, any storms could contain heavy rainfall and some training of storms may be possible, especially if the cold front slows down. Right now, we don't anticipate any widespread major flooding problems, but poor drainage and low-lying areas could have some flooding with the heavier thunderstorms. Rain chances look very good through Friday afternoon, and will go with categorical PoP's (80%) for these periods. Believe the models are a little too quick with fropa, and will go with a slightly slower fropa than what models indicate. Therefore, will hold on to higher rain chances than MOS members for Friday night, and will go a category or two above MOS guidance for minimum temps Friday night. By Saturday, the front should have already passed, and we should have clearing skies. Temperatures will cool down some behind the front (especially low temps), but don't look as cool as what we dealt with earlier this week. CAA and subsidence should continue through Monday, with high pressure remaining in control of the weather for the weekend through the early part of next week. ML

Hazardous Weather

Hazardous Weather Outlook (Thursday through Monday): There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across the area late tonight and during the day on Friday as a storm system and associated cold front approach the area. The main risk with any severe storms will be damaging winds and possibly isolated tornadoes. Also, locally heavy rainfall can be expected with the heavier thunderstorms. Although widespread flooding is not expected, poor drainage and low-lying areas could experience flooding, especially if thunderstorms persist over the area for an extended period of time. Beyond Friday, no hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Astronomical and Climatological Data
Moon Phase Crescent Waxing Sunset 6:09 PM Sunrise 7:03 AM	10/26/06 Normal High Record High Normal Low Record Low Temperature 76°F 87°F (1936) 52°F 37°F (1990) October Normal Wettest Driest Precipitation 3.25 in. 13.20 in. (1985) 0.00 in. (1874)

10/26 in Mobile Area Weather History

In 1937 an afternoon storm spawned an F2 tornado on the Mobile waterfront in Mobile County, AL. The tornado injured 3 as it tore through piers, shipping facilities, and businesses. (Data compiled from NWS Mobile, NWS Birmingham, newspaper articles, USA Archives, US Hurricanes and HurricaneCity.com)

Wednesday Night Forecast

Forecast issued by Randy Bowers on 10/25/06 at 5:20:56 pm CDT

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Tonight	Tomorrow	Friday	Saturday	Sunday
	74°F	77°F	71°F	75°F
55°F		63°F	55°F	50°F
SE 10-15 mph	SE 10-15 mph	S 10-20 mph	W 5-10 mph	NE 4-8 mph
30%	50%	60%	0%	0%

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Detailed Forecast

.Tonight... Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Low near 55. Southeast winds 5-10 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent. .Thursday...Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. High around 74. Southeast winds 10-15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent. .Thursday Night... Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms becoming likely. Low near 63. South winds 10-20 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent. .Friday...Showers and thunderstorms likely through early afternoon with a chance of showers during the late afternoon. Otherwise, mostly cloudy. High around 77. South wind around 15-25 mph, shifting to the northwest by mid-afternoon. Chance of rain 60 percent. .Friday Night... Mostly cloudy during the evening. Decreasing clouds after midnight. Low around 55. Northwest wind at 5-10 mph. .Saturday... Partly cloudy. High around 71. West wind at 5-10 mph. Saturday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 50. Winds west 5-10 mph. Sunday... Partly cloudy. High 75. Winds northeast 4-8 mph. Sunday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 54. Winds northeast 2-4 mph.

Technical Discussion

Synopsis: Sfc analysis showing sfc ridge extending from Great Lakes region Swrd to just east of KPNS. This places our area in SErly flow at the surface. Expecting SErly/Srly flow to increase throughout the next 24 hrs in response to lee cyclogenisis. Mid/upper feature responsible for this will shift Ewrd and bring pcpn Thur-Fri. Some timing differences among models resulting in a low-confidence forecast. GFS/ECMWF/SREF are all faster than NAM/NOGAPS/NGM. Overall, the models are in agreement in intensity and the overall patter, however. GFS' less amplified/less intense solution converges with the more amplified/more intense NAM solution after about 36-48 hrs. In the short term, mid-level cloud deck limiting insolation and holding temperatures slightly below previously forecast values. Large scale weak isentropic lift has resulting in some very light pcpn across the area, which has thus far not been measurable. Believe this will continue through the rest of the evening. Forecast mstr profiles indicate a continued moistening of the column overnight and during the day tomorrow, partly due to Paul in the Ern Pacific. Will take this into account for cloud cover--continuing with >3/4 sky cover until fropa occurs on Friday. Model QPF fields not handling isentropic pcpn scenario well attm. Believe a slight adjustment upward of MOS for first and second period, both based on models' poor handling of ongoing QPF as previously mentioned, and WAA pcpn potential. Best pcpn chance comes with fropa which is expected on Friday. Have decided to lean toward the NAM timing of mid/upper shortwave which would lead to a mid-day fropa on Friday. Question remains as to whether convective complex will form west of our area and reach us by early morning or whether main focus for pcpn will be with the actual fropa. For now, have went with likely PoPs Thur night and Friday to account for timing uncertainties and uncertainties in convective mode. Models do show at least some instability in pre-frontal warm sector Thur night/Friday. Despite abundant moisture, poor lapse rates yeild marginal CAPE values at best. Shear profiles would favor organized convection, with AOA 50 kt 0-6km shear present. 40-50 kt LLJ also progged by both GFS and NAM. Believe severe threat does exist. However, uncertainty in evolution of convection to our west limits confidence in severe threat attm. If better instability can be realized (given lack of widespread pre-frontal/WAA pcpn and clouds or MCS formation), severe potential would go up on Fri. Post-fropa dry/stable air mass results in dry weekend. Zonal flow aloft to bring another shortward toward our area by the beginning of next week. Pior to that, near climo temps expected per MEX.

Hazardous Weather

Today through Friday A storm system and associated cold front will approach the area Thursday night into Friday, resulting in an increased risk of showers and thunderstorms. There is a risk of strong to isolated severe thunderstorms with this system. The amount of instability is in question, but strong wind shear is expected across the region. The main risk with any severe storms would likely be damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. Please keep up to date with the latest forecasts concerning this weather system. Saturday and Sunday No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Astronomical and Climatological Data
Moon Phase Crescent Waxing Sunset 6:10 PM Sunrise 7:02 AM	10/25/06 Normal High Record High Normal Low Record Low Temperature 77°F 88°F (1927) 53°F 38°F (1999) October Normal Wettest Driest Precipitation 3.25 in. 13.20 in. (1985) 0.00 in. (1874)

10/25 in Mobile Area Weather History

In 1977 a morning storm produced a tornado that overturned a mobile home and damaged several other homes in the communities of Foley, Robertsdale, and Loxley in Baldwin County, AL. Also, in 1997 a midday storm produced an F0 tornado near Greenville in Butler County, AL where it caused major damage to a metal garage and caused timber damage. That afternoon, another storm produced a tornado in the Howell community of George County, MS that moved into Mobile County, AL and damaged outbuildings and trees before dissipating near highway 98 west of Wilmer. (Data compiled from NWS Mobile, NWS Birmingham, newspaper articles, USA Archives and HurricaneCity.com)

Tuesday Evening Forecast

Forecast issued by Michael Leach on 10/24/06 at 3:11:43 pm CDT

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Tonight	Tomorrow	Thursday	Friday	Saturday
	72°F	76°F	75°F	71°F
46°F		57°F	63°F	57°F
N 4-8 mph	E 5-10 mph	S 7-14 mph	W 10-15 mph	N 5-10 mph
0%	10%	50%	30%	0%

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Detailed Forecast

Tonight… Mostly clear. Low around 43. Winds north 4-8 mph. Tomorrow... Partly cloudy. High around 73. Winds east 5-10 mph. Wednesday Night... Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low near 47. Winds southeast 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 30 percent. Thursday... Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. High around 75. Winds south 7-14 mph. Chance of rain is 50 percent. Thursday Night... Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low near 60. Winds south 7-14 mph. Chance of rain is 50 percent. Friday... Scattered showers and thunderstorms in the morning. Decreasing clouds in the afternoon. High around 78. Winds west 10-15 mph. Chance of rain is 30 percent. Friday Night... Partly cloudy. Low around 57. Winds northwest 5-10 mph. Saturday... Mostly sunny. High near 75. Winds north 5-10 mph. Saturday Night... Clear. Low around 50. Winds north 4-8 mph.

Technical Discussion

Forecast Discussion (Tuesday through Saturday): Another mostly clear, cool night can be expected tonight, but temperatures will likely be warmer than last night. MOS indicates wind speeds a little higher tonight, leading to more mixing in the atmosphere. By Wednesday evening, WAA should begin kicking in as 850 mb winds become southerly in direction and increase in speed. This will lead to more lifting across the area, and will include a chance of SHRA/TSRA beginning on Wednesday Night. Thursday looks to be the most active day during the forecast period. A developing low pressure area across the southern Plains will move to the east-northeast on Wednesday, passing to the north of the area on Thursday. GFS indicates that the low will pass over the northern portions of the Tennessee Valley region, while the NAM shows the associated low a little farther north over the Ohio Valley. The NAM indicates a strong low level jet (possibly on the order of 50 kts.) passing over the area on Thursday, especially over the inland areas. The GFS is a little weaker with the LLJ, indicating speeds of 30-40 kts. Forecast model soundings also indicate quite a bit of wind shear on Thursday across the area. The question will be the amount of instability. A look at the NAM/WRF forecast for 72 hours (early Friday morning) shows around 1000 J/Kg of SBCAPE over the region. This value may be a little higher on Thursday afternoon and evening. With this said, there could be some strong to severe thunderstorms on Thursday. SWODY3 from the SPC includes our area in a slight risk of severe weather on Thursday. Will let later shifts go into more detail on the threat of severe weather. As far as PoP's go for Thursday, will go 50/50 for Thursday and Thursday night at this time. Feel that we will see likely PoP's at some point during this period, but disagreement between MOS members leads to a lower confidence forecast. MAV indicates likely PoP's only on Thursday night, while the MET indicates likely PoP's all periods Wednesday night through Thursday night. Believe the MET is a little too agressive with moisture return, and will lean closer to the MAV. Later shifts can fine-tune this PoP forecast. Models tend to be trending a little slower with the fropa associated with this system. Because of this, I added a low-end chance PoP to Friday. Indicated that the best chance would probably be Friday morning, and indicated decreasing clouds by Friday afternoon. Saturday should be a nice day, with fropa behind us and CAA leading to subsidence across the area. Temperatures will cool down some after fropa, but don't look as cool as the temperatures we have been dealing with early this week. ML

Hazardous Weather

Hazardous Weather Outlook (Tuesday through Saturday): A storm system and associated cold front will approach the area on Thursday, resulting in an increased risk of showers and thunderstorms. There is a risk of strong to isolated severe thunderstorms with this system. The amount of instability is in question, but strong wind shear is expected across the region. The main risk with any severe storms would likely be damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. Please keep up to date with the latest forecasts concerning this weather system.

Astronomical and Climatological Data
Moon Phase Crescent Waxing Sunset 6:11 PM Sunrise 7:01 AM	10/24/06 Normal High Record High Normal Low Record Low Temperature 77°F 89°F (1941) 53°F 37°F (1999) October Normal Wettest Driest Precipitation 3.25 in. 13.20 in. (1985) 0.00 in. (1874)

Thursday Morning Forecast

Forecast issued by Justin Gibbs on 10/19/06 at 1:29:38 am CDT

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Today	Friday	Saturday	Sunday	Monday
84°F	73°F	73°F	79°F	72°F
	60°F	56°F	63°F	60°F
SW 5-10 mph	N 5-10 mph	W 4-8 mph	S 5-10 mph	NW 10-15 mph
70%	0%	10%	40%	0%

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Detailed Forecast

Today... Partly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely, especially in the afternoon. High 84. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 70 percent. Tonight... Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. Low 60. Winds west 10-15 mph. Chance of rain is 70 percent. Friday... Mostly cloudy early then clearing by afternoon. High 73. Winds north 5-10 mph. Friday Night... Mostly clear. Low 56. Winds north 4-8 mph. Saturday... Partly cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms possible in the late afternoon. High 73. Winds west 4-8 mph. Chance of rain 10 percent. Saturday Night... Partly cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms. Low 63. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Sunday... Partly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. High 79. Winds south 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 40 percent. Sunday Night... Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low 60. Winds northwest 7-14 mph. Chance of rain is 40 percent. Monday... Mostly cloudy. High 72. Winds northwest 10-15 mph.

Technical Discussion

Synopsis: 05z Surface analysis reveals a coldfrontal boundary draped across eastern Arkansas and far northwestern Mississippi, attached to a developing sfc cyclone over the MO Bootheel. Aloft very weak divergence coupled with a weak remnant boundary produced somscattered SHRA this evening but that has since subsided. Pronounced 200/700mb trof axis exists is analyzed from 0z RAOBs from the four corners region to northern Minnesota. Phasing subtropical/polar jet streak indicated from NRN TX to NRN NY at 300mb. Forecast Discussion (Thursday through Monday): Short Term... Storm system will progress eastward through the first two forecast periods. GFS/NAM is in relatively acceptable agreement regarding a 0-6z FROPA with the NAM leaning towards the latter. NGM/UKMET agree with the slower NAM while ECMWF tips its hat to the GFS. GFS is slightly weaker with the overall dynamics of the system but both seem reasonably analyzed so will for now go with a blend and assume a 4-5z FROPA. Thermodynamic profiles indicate a relatively unstable airmass will be in place as moisture return gets rolling during the day today with southwest winds at 5-15 mph pulling in rich gulf moisture (Buoys indicating Td's near 80). As previous shifts mentioned dynamic environment is not on par with what we saw Monday, however, speed shear and to some degree directional shear is still more than sufficient for organized thunderstorm development. The main threat today appears to be damaging winds and perhaps large hail. NAM/GFS forecast soundings point to about 15-20 degrees of low level turning with 0-3km SRH on the order of 150 m2/s2. This suggest the possibility of a few isolated tornadoes in the most vigorous updrafts but the storms will likely require some sort of additional boundary support to produce. More likely this will allow sufficient rotation of updrafts to allow for an enahnced hail production potential. Overall picture suggests the possibility of supercells at the onset of the episode likely coalescing into a squall line/MCS by nights end. Will go with 70/70 with afternoon/evening wording for the first two periods pop wise. Friday guidance/current analysis indicates rather quick column drying behind the frontal boundary/trof axis so will continue the PoP free going forecast. Going forecast appears on track for winds/temp/cloud cover through Friday night. Only question regards how far south the frontal boundary will push once it becomes paralell to the mean flow, for now guidance seems rather convinced it will clear the area entirely for F/FN and this solution appears reasonable and shows good continuity. Long Term... Boundary becomes a little less well behaved as we enter the weekend. GFS is still a bit more agressive with moisture return on the backside of the sfc ridge to the east. Will reduce the going 20 pop to 10 pop, but the boundary is extremely close to the coast and moisture is still begining to work in with GFS indicating 850/700mb RHs going above 80% by 12z Sunday, so will taper the SN pop to 20% given the slower moisture return trend of the GFS (which is more in line with NGM. Reinforcing frontal boundary pushes through Sunday afternoon ahead of a powerful upper level low. Sunday afternoon mean upper level flow becomes...and remains northwesterly and brisk. Strong northwesterly upper level flow will aide in providing a rather stark temperature contrast behind the boundary and push our temperatures to unseasonably cool levels for the start of the next work week. It should be noted MEX MOS has trended downward in each sucessive run for Tuesday mornings low now showing 48."

Hazardous Weather

Short Term (Today through Thursday) Organized showers and thunderstorms are expected tonight as a cold front approaches from the northwest. There is a chance a few of these storms may become severe, with damaging winds the main threat. Large hail, and an isolated tornado cannot be completely ruled out with this system. Long Term (Friday through Monday): No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Astronomical and Climatological Data
Moon Phase Crescent Waning Sunrise 6:57 AM Sunset 6:16 PM	10/19/06 Normal High Record High Normal Low Record Low Temperature 78°F 88°F (1949) 55°F 39°F (1948) October Normal Wettest Driest Precipitation 3.25 in. 13.20 in. (1985) 0.00 in. (1874)

10/19 in Mobile Area Weather History

In 2004 an evening storm produced an F0 tornado near Owassa in Conecuh County, AL where it downed several trees. (Data compiled from NWS Mobile, NWS Birmingham, newspaper articles, USA Archives and HurricaneCity.com)

Wednesday Night Forecast

Forecast issued by Randy Bowers on 10/18/06 at 5:17:10 pm CDT

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Tonight	Tomorrow	Friday	Saturday	Sunday
	84°F	73°F	79°F	79°F
71°F		63°F	54°F	65°F
SE 4-8 mph	SW 5-10 mph	NW 5-10 mph	NE 4-8 mph	S 5-10 mph
40%	60%	0%	20%	30%

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Detailed Forecast

Tonight… Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low 71. Winds southeast 4-8 mph. Chance of rain is 40 percent. Tomorrow... Mostly cloudy with rain and thunderstorms. High 84. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 60 percent. Thursday Night... Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms in the evening. Then, decreasing cloudiness after midnight. Low 63. Winds west 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 50 percent. Friday... Partly cloudy. High 73. Winds northwest 5-10 mph. Friday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 54. Winds north 4-8 mph. Saturday... Partly cloudy with isolated showers. High 79. Winds northeast 4-8 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Saturday Night... Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low 65. Winds east 4-8 mph. Chance of rain is 30 percent. Sunday... Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. High 79. Winds south 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 30 percent. Sunday Night... Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low 57. Winds west 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 30 percent.

Technical Discussion

Synopsis: Surface analysis indicates somewhat diffuse sfc boundary lifting northward across the region this afternoon. Sfc winds expected to veer to the south/southeast this evening/early tonight before further veering toward morning. SWrly, sfc flow will be dominate across the region tomorrow. In the mean time, WAA regime resulting in ongoing SHRA/TSRA just off-shore and further west across Louisiana. This activity seems to be focused along theta-e gradient which will continue to move Nwrd into the area overnight. Have placed a 40 PoP in overnight to account for this. Forecast concerns center around shortwave now seen in WV over Rocky Mountain region. Models are similar with timing/intensity with Ewrd progression, though NAM is the strongest/slowest. GFS doesn't lag by much but is a little quicker, showing a fropa at or just after 00z. NAM, on the other hand, shows a little slower fropa, around or just before 06z. NGM sides with the NAM showing a slower fropa. Given this, am inclined to go with the NAM/NGM timing. However, previous forecaster suggested that GFS had a better handle overall as it initialized better. Will therefore split the difference in NAM and GFS with regard to timing. Different setup than last so expect convective mode to be different. Last system brought convective showers which brought a tornado/enhanced wind threat given high-shear/low CAPE environment. Models indicate LLJ/H8-H9 winds to be about half as intense as with previous system--indicating roughly 30-40 kt LLJ tomorrow afternoon. Result is less ovrall shear, both directional and speed, with 0-6km speed shear certainly still favorable for organized convection. With that said, instability appears to be higher with this system per guidance--although still rather weak given poor mid-level lapse rates. All things considered, a severe threat will exist tomorrow afternoon/early tomorrow night, though with best mid-upper dynamics lagging behind sfc boundary, feel that severe threat will be marginal and limited to multi-cell and bow structures with primary threat of damaging winds. Adequate shear for mid-level rotation may enhance hail threat somewhat, especially in the most robust updrafts. Post-fropa air mass much drier and cooler. Generally followed MOS for temperatures Fri-Sat. During that time, boundary becomes parallel to mean flow and stalls just off the coast. NAM and GFS both indicate a wave developing along this boundary and WAA regime expected again by late Saturday. For now, have add a small PoP Saturday to cover timing uncertainties. GFS is more aggressive with mstr return than NAM--showing QPF by late Saturday which NAM holds it off at least another 12 hours.

Hazardous Weather

Short Term (Today through Thursday) The probability for thunderstorms will increase overnight tonight and especially tomorrow. The best chance of thunderstorms will come late tomorrow afternoon as a cold front approaches. Although widespread significant severe weather is not anticipated, a few marginally severe thunderstorms are possible. Damaging winds will be the primary severe weather threat. Long Term (Friday through Sunday): No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Astronomical and Climatological Data
Moon Phase Crescent Waning Sunset 6:17 PM Sunrise 6:57 AM	10/18/06 Normal High Record High Normal Low Record Low Temperature 79°F 89°F (1972) 55°F 35°F (1948) October Normal Wettest Driest Precipitation 3.25 in. 13.20 in. (1985) 0.00 in. (1874)

Special Weather Update

...Powerful Storm System Continues To Impact Mobile Area...

The National Weather Service has issued a Tornado Watch through 9 a.m. Coastal Flood Warning until 7am Tuesday. A Flash Flood Watch Through Tuesday Afternoon...and a Wind Advisory through 1 am this morning for Mobile and Baldwin Counties.

At 2:15 am, weather radar indicated a complex of showers and thunderstorms moving eastward from southcentral Lousiana and Southern Mississippi. Additional showers are indicated ahead of the main complex across Mobile and Baldwin Counties.

Persistent moderate to heavy rainfall can be expected to begin in the Mobile area around the 4 a.m. hour with a stronger line of thunderstorms located near the rear of this complex, back closer to the main cold front, expected to move through between 6 and 9 a.m.

As this cluster moves through there is a possiblity for isolated tornadoes and damaging winds. There will also be a good possibility of street flooding, and possibily more significant flooding in the early morning hours across the Mobile metropolitan area, as 2-3 inches of rainfall may occur in areas which experience heavier thunderstorm activity. Morning commuters should prepare to deal with not only the possiblity of severe weather, but the strong possibility of travel difficulties due to excessive rainfall.

In coastal regions, strong southeast winds will continue to push astronomical high tides 2-4 feet above normal. Residents along coastal zones should prepare for abnormally high tides and areas of coastal flooding, possibly more pronounced than yesterdays episode.

Once this main thunderstorm complex clears in the mid morning hours, a few stray showers may persist before the main frontal system moves through around the noon hour. Winds should subside and shift to the west by midafternoon under clearing skies.

JG

Tuesday Morning Forecast

Forecast issued by Justin Gibbs on 10/17/06 at 2:06:07 am CDT

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Today	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday
79°F	88°F	85°F	81°F	78°F
	69°F	70°F	63°F	60°F
S 10-20 mph	SW 5-10 mph	SW 10-15 mph	S 5-10 mph	SE 5-10 mph
100%	20%	40%	0%	0%

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Detailed Forecast

Today... Cloudy with rain and thunderstorms in the morning. Some storms may be severe with isolated tornadoes and damaging winds. Chance of rain is near 100 percent. Becoming partly cloudy by afternoon with a 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. High 79. Winds south 10-20 mph. Tonight... Partly cloudy. Low 69. Winds west 4-8 mph. Wednesday... Partly cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms. High 88. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Wednesday Night... Partly cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms. Low 70. Winds south 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Thursday... Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. High 85. Winds southwest 10-15 mph. Chance of rain is 40 percent. Thursday Night... Mostly clear. Low 63. Winds west 2-4 mph. Friday... Partly cloudy. High 81. Winds south 5-10 mph. Friday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 60. Winds southeast 2-4 mph. Saturday... Partly cloudy. High 78. Winds southeast 5-10 mph.

Technical Discussion

Synopsis: Dynamically impressive severe weather episode continues this hour across the northcentral gulf coast region. Wind has shifted in the past few hours from east southeast around 7 pm...to a mostly southerly sfc flow at 15-20kts with higher gusts. KLIX/KMOB VWPs give us a better look at the flow just off the surface which also indicates a "more" unidirecitonal but still rather veered with height flow with about 40 degrees of turning from 925mb to the middle levels. Regional 88D network indicates healthy and so far sustaining MCS/Squall line with embedded bows and LEWPs. SPC has announced intentions to reissue TOA after the 7z expriation. 0-1km SRH values per RUC fcst soundings are still very impressive this morning between 450-650 m2/s2. Am also intrigued by what appears to be a slight increase in SB instability just ahead of the squall line where flow becomes more south/southwesterly perhaps entraining some slightly warmer low level air that saw more plentiful daytime heating before this afternoons rounds. Forecast Discussion (Tuesday through Saturday): Short Term... Linear extrapolation puts this line knocking on our door in the 6 am hour. Guidance appears as one would expect with a forward propogating MCS to drag it about 12 hours too slow. Will increase 1st period pops to categorical for the AM hours and taper back to chc for the 12pm-6pm in case we get a slowing of the frontal boundary. Gambut of severe weather appears possible as the highly sheared MCS with embedded Bow/LEWP segments moves through. Will reup SWU for the severe weather threats. CFW/Wind advisory remains in through 12z as well. It appears the threat will diminish shortly after high tide once the frontal boundary moves through but gusty winds will remain until the main convection cluster moves through. GFS/NAM both agree on a 18z FROPA across the region and forecast guidance/current analysis indicate solid drying behind the front so will taper pops to lochc for the afternoon hours just in case we see some lingering precip just ahead of a slightly slowed frontal passage. Long Term... Will generally stick with going forecast beyond this point as it appears to be in good shape. Low level flow becomes southerly ahead of another storm system that will move in on Thursday. Will remain on track with the going 20 pops Wednesday Afternoon. The only trick to this fcst regards a shift in the frontal timing by the GFS...which now brings the front through late Wednesday/Early Thursday instead of the GFSs solution for bringing it through and stalling it on Thursday. 500mb picture shows a phasing jet stream around a building ridge over NRN GA/WRN TN as the main continental jet moves in Thursday. This would hint at a slightly faster frontal passage so will introduce for now 20% pops to the Wednesday night forecast to put us in a better position for updates down the road. Will also make a few tweaks to the wind forecast to hint at the possiblity of a faster frontal passage. Will keep the general forecast intact Thursday/Thursday night as I believe a Thu Night pop will remain prudent regardless of the final solution because it appears probable we will see some form of boundary stalling due to the relative projected weakness in deep layer flow as you get further south.

Hazardous Weather

Hazardous Weather Outlook (Tuesday through Saturday): See The Special Weather Update product for information regarding todays hazardous weather threats. Beyond today no widespread hazardous weather is expected during the forecast period.

Astronomical and Climatological Data
Moon Phase Crescent Waning Sunrise 6:55 AM Sunset 6:18 PM	10/17/06 Normal High Record High Normal Low Record Low Temperature 79°F 90°F (1972) 55°F 38°F (1991) October Normal Wettest Driest Precipitation 3.25 in. 13.20 in. (1985) 0.00 in. (1874)

Special Weather Update

...Severe Weather and Flooding Possible Today...
The National Weather Service has issued a Coastal Flood Warning until 7am Tuesday. A Flash Flood Watch Through Tuesday Afternoon...and a Wind Advisory through 1 am this morning for Mobile and Baldwin Counties.

A strong warm front is generating showers and thunderstorms this morning across much of the northcentral Gulf coast region. Some of these storms are producing heavy rainfall rates on the order of 1/2 to 1 inch per hour.

At 10:53 am, weather radar indicated the strongest activity was located over Mobile Bay with additional heavy showers across the northwestern portion of the city of Mobile and northwest rural Mobile county. Additional persistent moderate showers were indicated across nearly the entire metropolitan area and these will continue through the next few hours and likely persist off and on until the overnight hours. Some of these storms may be severe. Due to strong low level windfields aiding in thunderstorm rotation, isolated tornadoes will be the main threat. Mariners should be alert for the likelihood of numerous waterspouts throught the Gulf coastal waterways this afternoon.

In addition to the threat of severe weather the strong storm system is aiding to generate strong surface winds on the order of 20 to 30 mph. These windfields will likely increase as the warm front moves through. Non-thunderstorm winds occasionally gusting to 40 mph may become possible later this afternoon. This will aggravate an ongoing coastal flooding situation across lower Mobile and Baldwin counties and areas along the Mobile Bay. Several reports of coastal flooding have been recieved from the Dauphin Island area this morning. While high tides have passed for the day additional tidal piling of 2-3 feet above normal can be expected throughout the remainder of the day, and the flooding threat will persist to tomorrows high tides around 6 a.m.

JG

Friday Evening Forecast

Forecast issued by Michael Leach on 10/13/06 at 2:27:10 pm CDT

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Tonight	Tomorrow	Sunday	Monday	Tuesday
	78°F	81°F	80°F	83°F
49°F		57°F	68°F	74°F
NNE 5-10 mph	E 5-10 mph	ESE 10-15 mph	S 10-15 mph	SW 7-14 mph
0%	0%	20%	60%	60%

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Detailed Forecast

Tonight… Decreasing clouds. Low 49. Winds north-northeast 5-10 mph. Tomorrow... Mostly sunny. High 78. Winds east 5-10 mph. Saturday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 57. Winds east 5-10 mph. Sunday... Increasing clouds with isolated showers and thunderstorms. High 81. Winds east-southeast 10-15 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Sunday Night... Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low 68. Winds east-southeast 10-15 mph. Chance of rain is 40 percent. Monday... Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. High 80. Winds south 10-15 mph. Chance of rain is 60 percent. Monday Night... Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low 74. Winds south 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 60 percent. Tuesday... Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. High 83. Winds southwest 7-14 mph. Chance of rain is 60 percent. Tuesday Night... Partly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low 71. Winds west-southwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 40 percent.

Technical Discussion

Synopsis: Cooler air is flowing into the Mobile area behind a cold front. After some rain earlier today, skies are expected to clear late this afternoon, leading to a mostly clear night tonight. With the cloud cover and rain, temperatures have struggled to warm through the 50's this afternoon. 19z temp at KMOB was 62 degrees, with BKN skies still reported. A N to NE breeze averaging between 7 and 14 mph has made conditions outside feel even cooler. Short Term (Friday through Sunday): Main concerns for Friday and Saturday are temps. MOS guidance has cooled slightly from yesterday, and now indicates lows in the upper 40's to around 50 tonight. Will basically take a split of MAV and MET guidance, and call for a low of 49 tonight at KMOB. Saturday looks like a nice day, with continued CAA and subsidence occurring. Mostly sunny skies can be expected, with highs warming into the upper 70's with the abundant sunshine. By Sunday, surface winds and 850 mb winds are expected to begin coming out of the east-southeast, signaling a return to a WAA pattern over the area. With the increase in moisture, will indicate a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms by Sunday afternoon. By Sunday night, the GFS indicates a weak area of low pressure developing to the west over the Texas-Louisiana coast. The GFS is indicating a bullseye of precipitation around this low, possibly indicating a MCS developing. The WRF does indicate some moisture in this region, but is not as robust as the GFS. Will bring rain chances into the chance range for Sunday night. Long Term (Monday through Tuesday): The GFS and WRF differ in details with regard to early next week. The GFS continues to progress the MCS eastward, bringing it over our region on Monday. The NAM does not indicate the MCS, and holds back the deepest moisture until Monday night at the earliest. As a result of this, MEX guidance ramps up PoP's to around 90% on Monday. Going by WRF graphics, PoP's would likely be in the high chance or likely range. The GFS could possibly be suffering from convective feedback, and will not go as high on PoP's as the GFS. Have decided to go with 60% PoP for Monday and Monday night. If the GFS did verify, we could be looking at a heavy rainfall situation across the area. As far as thunderstorms go, the system does not look as good dynamically as it did a few days ago. Still, the GFS is indicating some rather strong winds (around 40 kts.) at 850 mb on Monday. The WRF indicates similar 850 mb winds, but farther to the west on Monday as it is slower than the GFS with the system. The GFS also indicates some slightly negative LI's. With this said, I would not be surprised to see some strong storms sometime in the Monday-Tuesday period, but severe weather looks iffy at this time. If the NAM were to verify, Tuesday would probably be wetter than Monday, and vice versa if the GFS verified. For this reason, decided to just go with 60% PoP's through Tuesday afternoon, tapering down to 40% Tuesday night. Temperatures should continue to warm throughout the period due to WAA. Earlier MEX guidance indicated highs around 90 on Tuesday, but has since cooled down. Will just indicate a gradual increase in temps through the period. ML

Hazardous Weather

Short Term (Friday through Sunday): No hazardous weather is expected. Long Term (Monday through Tuesday): Rain and thunderstorm chances will be on the increase during the early portion of next week as a storm system approaches the area. At this time, it appears that a few strong storms will be possible on Monday and Tuesday. Widespread severe weather is not expected at this time. Also, locally heavy rainfall will be possible. Since this system is still a few days away, forecasts are likely to change. Please stay tuned to a good forecast source as we head into the weekend.

Astronomical and Climatological Data
Moon Phase Last Sunset 6:23 PM Sunrise 6:53 AM	10/13/06 Normal High Record High Normal Low Record Low Temperature 80°F 92°F (1963) 57°F 41°F (1977) October Normal Wettest Driest Precipitation 3.25 in. 13.20 in. (1985) 0.00 in. (1874)

10/13 in Mobile Area Weather History

In 2001 an outbreak of 9 tornadoes affected the central Gulf Coast with 8 affecting Baldwin County, AL alone. Of the 9 tornadoes, 5 were rated F0, 1 was rated F1, 1 was rated F2, and 1 was an F3. The F3 tornado hit south of the Grove Home Trailer Park in Baldwin County, AL and moved northeast, destroying 5 large cement block buildings, leveled a mobile home, damaging several other mobile homes, carried a large panel truck filled with heavy tools about 60 feet and tossed several other vehicles 15-25 feet and downed numerous trees in its path. The F2 tornado hit southeast of Robertsdale in Baldwin County, AL where it destroyed 3 mobile homes, damaged 17 mobile homes and downed several large Pecan trees. The F1 tornado hit near Fairhope in Baldwin County, AL where it caused major damage to a warehouse and downed several trees along with a fence. Later, an F0 tornado moved ashore in Gulf Shores in Baldwin County, AL during a Shrimp Festival. The tornado damaged several booths and caused damage to some homes along 6th avenue. Another F0 hit near Montrose in Baldwin County, AL and downed several trees. Yet another F0 tornado hit near the Grove Home Trailer Park in Baldwin County, AL where it downed several trees and a large fence near the Park along CR 75. The other F0 tornado hit near Spanish Fort in Baldwin County, AL where it formed near Meaher Park on the Causeway and jumped across the Causeway and struck the Pineda Island subdivision. The tornado damaged several trees. (Data compiled from NWS Mobile, NWS Birmingham, newspaper articles, USA Archives, US Hurricanes and HurricaneCity.com)

Friday Evening Forecast

Forecast issued by Michael Leach on 10/06/06 at 1:16:20 pm CDT

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Tonight	Tomorrow	Sunday	Monday	Tuesday
	81°F	82°F	83°F	84°F
57°F		55°F	59°F	63°F
N 4-8 mph	N 5-10 mph	NE 5-10 mph	ENE 5-10 mph	SE 5-10 mph
0%	0%	0%	0%	10%

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Detailed Forecast

Tonight… Mostly clear. Low 57. Winds north 4-8 mph. Tomorrow... Sunny. High 81. Winds north 5-10 mph. Saturday Night... Clear. Low 55. Winds northeast 4-8 mph. Sunday... Sunny. High 82. Winds northeast 5-10 mph. Sunday Night... Mostly clear. Low 59. Winds east-northeast 4-8 mph. Monday... Mostly sunny. High 83. Winds east-northeast 5-10 mph. Monday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 63. Winds east-northeast 4-8 mph. Tuesday... Partly cloudy. High 84. Winds southeast 5-10 mph. Tuesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 65. Winds south-southeast 4-8 mph.

Technical Discussion

Synopsis: A dry cold front moved through the area this morning around 12z. Northerly winds have ushered in a cooler air mass across the area, with 19z temps running near 80 degrees, compared with upper 80's to around 90 degrees at the same time yesterday. A few clouds moved into the area in association with the front, but those have since cleared away leaving a sunny afternoon across the area. Wind speeds have averaged between 5 and 10 mph today, with a few higher gusts. Short Term (Tonight through Sunday): Dry northerly to northeasterly flow aloft and at the surface will continue across the area throughout the weekend. In the upper levels, the area will be caught between a developing upper level low to our northeast across the Carolinas, and a ridge shifting/building to our west. CAA will likely continue throughout the weekend, indicating subsidence will remain across the area. MOS guidance has continue to cool slightly for the weekend, and thus, this forecast is a touch cooler than the previous one. MET guidance was especially cool, indicating upper 70's for highs on both Saturday and Sunday. Did not go quite as low as MET guidance, and stayed relatively close to MAV guidance, indicating highs in the lower 80's and lows in the middle to upper 50's throughout the weekend. Long Term (Monday through Tuesday): CAA should weaken, and eventually WAA will take over during the long term period. Monday should be similar to Saturday and Sunday, but by Tuesday, winds will begin to shift to the Southeast and WAA will begin over the area. The result will be an increase in clouds, and possibily an isolated rain chance by Tuesday. Timing is still in question, so will introduce only a 'silent' 10 PoP at this time and indicate an increase in clouds. By Tuesday, temperatures should return to above seasonable normals. On Tuesday, the GFS indicates a rather amplified trough developing over the Midwest and Rocky Mountain states. This storm system, and associated stronger cold front, may affect the area by the middle or latter part of next week. This is beyond the range of this forecast, but it may be the next interesting weather system to affect our area. ML

Hazardous Weather

Hazardous Weather Outlook (Friday through Tuesday): No hazardous weather is expected through the forecast period.

Astronomical and Climatological Data
Moon Phase Full Moon Sunset 6:31 PM Sunrise 6:49 AM	10/06/06 Normal High Record High Normal Low Record Low Temperature 82°F 93°F (1941) 61°F 43°F (1932) October Normal Wettest Driest Precipitation 3.25 in. 13.20 in. (1985) 0.00 in. (1874)

10/06 in Mobile Area Weather History

In 1906 a morning storm produced an F2 tornado that leveled a home and downed numerous trees from Oak Grove to an area between Kushlin and Manville in Mobile County, AL. (Data compiled from NWS Mobile, NWS Birmingham, newspaper articles, USA Archives and HurricaneCity.com)