Wednesday Night Forecast

Forecast issued by Randy Bowers on 09/13/06 at 3:22:51 pm CDT

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Tonight	Tomorrow	Friday	Saturday	Sunday
	87°F	88°F	90°F	89°F
70°F		69°F	67°F	69°F
N 2-4 mph	Lgt N	E 2-4 mph	SE 5-10 mph	SE 5-10 mph
20%	0%	0%	0%	10%

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Detailed Forecast

Tonight… Partly Cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms during the evening. Low 70. Winds north 2-4 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Tomorrow... Mostly cloudy during the morning, becoming partly cloudy by afternoon. High 87. Winds north light N. Thursday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 69. Winds north 2-4 mph. Friday... Mostly cloudy in the morning, becoming partly to mostly sunny by afternoon. High 88. Winds east 2-4 mph. Friday Night... Mostly clear. Low 67. Winds east 4-8 mph. Saturday... Mostly sunny. High 90. Winds southeast 5-10 mph. Saturday Night... Mostly clear. Low 69. Winds southeast 5-10 mph. Sunday... Increasing clouds. High 89. Winds southeast 5-10 mph. Sunday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low 70. Winds south 7-14 mph. Chance of rain is 30 percent.

Technical Discussion

.Short Term... Running short on time so will be brief. First challenge is lingering clouds/moisture near/north of stationary surface boundary oriented E/W to our south. MOS seems to be a little quick with exiting low clouds. Have generally used time-height RH cross sections in NAM and GFS as guidance for cloud forecast in the near term. Consensus among models is that mid/high level moisture will clear tonight into tomorrow, but considerable low level moisture will remain. GFS lessens this low level mstr with time--more quickly than NAM. NGM lingers significant amounts of < H85 mstr through Friday morning. Given amount of dry air progged above H85, feel that low stratus/fog will mix out during the day on Thursday and Friday, especially Friday. So, will compromise by going with partial cloud cover both days, but will be sure to mention low clouds/fog both mornings. Given low level moisture/cloud forecast issues, temperatures likely to be challenging. Until we get a better handle, plan to go on the low side of MOS for highs/ FWC, and high side of MOS for lows/ MET. .Extended... Unseasonably intense trough evolves over the northwest CONUS/Nrn Rockies late this week and becomes negatively tilted as it moves Ewrd toward the high plains. Very amplified and active pattern continues through the extended period and even beyond. Models try several times to close off heights at H25 over the weekend before close upper low finally takes hold over the Midwest/Great Lakes region early in the week, slowing progression of system overall. This leads to decreased confidence in timing and overall uncertainly when significant waves will impact our region. Current model consensus points toward a late Monday/Tuesday arrival of trough axis.

Hazardous Weather

Hazardous Weather Outlook (Wednesday through Sunday): No hazardous weather is expected through the forecast period.

Astronomical and Climatological Data
Moon Phase Last Sunset 7:00 PM Sunrise 6:36 AM	09/13/06 Normal High Record High Normal Low Record Low Temperature 88°F 96°F (1911) 69°F 52°F (1940) September Normal Wettest Driest Precipitation 6.01 in. 24.12 in. (1998) 0.47 in. (1923)

09/13 in Mobile Area Weather History

In 1979 the outer feeder bands of hurricane Frederic produced a tornado near Grove Hill in Clarke County, AL where 1 mobile home was destoryed and many trees were downed. (Data compiled from NWS Mobile, NWS Birmingham, newspaper articles, USA Archives and HurricaneCity.com)