Sunday Night Forecast

Forecast issued by Randy Bowers on 09/17/06 at 5:36:13 pm CDT

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Tonight	Tomorrow	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday
	85°F	84°F	84°F	86°F
73°F		71°F	60°F	62°F
S 5-10 mph	SW 5-10 mph	NW 5-10 mph	N 5-10 mph	S 5-10 mph
30%	80%	20%	0%	0%

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Detailed Forecast

Tonight… Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low 73. Winds south 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 30 percent. Tomorrow... Partly cloudy with rain and thunderstorms, especially during the afternoon. High 85. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 80 percent. Monday Night... Mostly cloudy with rain and thunderstorms. Low 71. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 80 percent. Tuesday... A chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning. Otherwise partly cloudy. High 84. Winds northwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 50 percent. Tuesday Night... Mostly clear. Low 60. Winds north 5-10 mph. Wednesday... Mostly sunny. High 84. Winds north 5-10 mph. Wednesday Night... Mostly clear. Low 62. Winds southeast 4-8 mph. Thursday... Becoming partly cloudy. High 86. Winds south 5-10 mph. Thursday Night... Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low 68. Winds south 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent.

Technical Discussion

.Current… SHRA/TSRA has developed generally west of Mobile across Srn MS/Ern LA this afternoon. Extensive CU/TCU field present w/ sharp contrast from to clear skies arced northeast of a MEI to GZH line. SErly sfc flow and higher RH values from the sfc through at least H85 were present west of aforementioned line, with drier sfc-H85 layer east of the line. .Summary… A series of relatively intense mid/upper troughs will cross the CONUS over the next several days. The first will impact the forecast area starting tomorrow. Once it passes another stronger / more amplified/ trough takes shape over the plains bringing precipitation chances back to the end of the week. Active pattern appears to continue beyond the extended period. .Short Term… Broad diffluent upper flow pattern becomes established over a large portion of the Mississippi Valley ahead of plains trough. Stronger flow aloft remains north of the forecast area. Surface boundary approaches overnight Monday and crosses early Tuesday morning. There area some timing consistency issues, though not significant. NAM slowed up fropa in the 12z run but sped up slightly in the 18z run. Went with consistent with previous forecast and will keep highest PoPs confined to the Monday night period, tapering them off on Tuesday. Deep moisture and widespread nature of precipitation may result in heavy rainfall. Not concerned with flooding attm because of progressive nature of this system. Severe threat seems marginal at best. Given widespread clouds, significant destabilization not expected. Poor lapse rates likely to limit overall instability. Additionally, sfc boundary looks to be displaced to the east of best shear. A few bow/LEWP structures could lead to severe/near severe gusts, but these events will be isolated. Have mentioned threat in HWO. .Long Term… High pressure ridge builds in following fropa on Tuesday. Clear/dry weather through midweek before sfc ridge shifts Ewrd and sfc flow quickly shifts to the south by Thur afternoon. Rapid return of moisture progged by Fri ahead of next system. This next system currently progged to be more intense than early week system with a much more amplified trough depicted on GFS. Will add small PoP for overnight Thur night period as system approaches but expecting more significant rain/thunderstorm threat into Friday/Saturday as system passes.

Hazardous Weather

Hazardous Weather Outlook (Sunday through Thursday): An unseasonably intense storm system will impact the area Monday into early Tuesday morning. Thunderstorms and heavy rain will be common across the area tomorrow, especially late in the day. As the system passes through overnight Monday night or very early Tuesday morning, the threat for heavy rain and thunderstorms will continue. The threat for severe thunderstorms with this system is not particularly high. However, isolated marginally severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. The primary threat will be isolated instances of damaging winds. The most likely time for severe weather will be between 9 p.m. Monday evening and 9 a.m. Tuesday morning. The areas which experience heavy rainfall may see minor flooding of flood-prone areas. However, widespread flooding problems are not expected.

Astronomical and Climatological Data
Moon Phase Crescent Waning Sunset 6:55 PM Sunrise 6:38 AM	09/17/06 Normal High Record High Normal Low Record Low Temperature 87°F 100°F (1927) 68°F 57°F (1961) September Normal Wettest Driest Precipitation 6.01 in. 24.12 in. (1998) 0.47 in. (1923)