Monday Night Forecast

Forecast issued by Randy Bowers on 09/18/06 at 6:22:35 pm CDT

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Tonight	Tomorrow	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday
	84°F	83°F	85°F	86°F
73°F		58°F	60°F	68°F
SW 4-8 mph	SW 5-10 mph	NW 5-10 mph	S 5-10 mph	S 5-10 mph
50%	50%	0%	0%	30%

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Detailed Forecast

Tonight… Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Areas of fog possible. Low 73. Winds southwest 4-8 mph. Chance of rain is 50 percent. Tomorrow... Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning. Partial clearing during the afternoon. High 84. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 50 percent. Tuesday Night... Clear. Low 58. Winds southwest 5-10 mph shifting to the nortwest by afternoon. Wednesday... Sunny. High 83. Winds northwest 5-10 mph. Wednesday Night... Clear. Low 60. Winds east 2-4 mph. Thursday... Mostly sunny. High 85. Winds south 5-10 mph. Thursday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 68. Winds south 4-8 mph. Friday... Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. High 86. Winds south 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 30 percent. Friday Night... Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low 69. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 30 percent.

Technical Discussion

More insolation than expected this morning through early afternoon allowed quick warming w/ KMOB verification point reaching 90F at 1856Z just before convective rains cooled ob site. Increased surface-based instability resulted in steeper low level lapse rates and higher MLCAPE values allowing for widespread diurnal convection. Convection ongoing across the area late this afternoon with heaviest concentration now east of Mobile. Surface boundary is lagging way behind best concentration of convection and was analyzed from northwest MS to just west of JAN to east-central TX. A weak sfc low has formed along this boundary just west of JAN. 88D composite showed weak convective elements near/along this boundary. However, stronger and more widespread convection was located well ahead of this boundary in association with pre-frontal wind shift/ongoing SQLN. Plan to cut back on overnight PoPs rather substantially given current trends. NAM QPF seems overdone. Additionally, new 18z NAM slows fropa to about 15z. See little reason for high-end PoPs until closer to fropa timeframe. Even then, high-end PoPs may very well be unnecessary. Best divergence stays north and with meager instability /nocturnal cooling/ thinking high-change PoPs will suffice. Even high-chance would probably be a bit much but am not willing to gamble. Plan to carry high-chance PoPs through morning in anticipation of AOA 15z FROPA. If gradient overnight is less than anticipated, fog formation will become a concern. Already winds at KMOB and points west /closer to the front/ are lower than guidance values prog. Feel that with widespread activity earlier resulting in soaked ground in many location that at least some patchy light fog will develop. Will go ahead and make mention of this. Column dries substantially following FROPA with PWAT values below one inch late Tue through late-week. In fact, with sfc Td values dropping well into the 50s, expecting overnight lows to do so as well. MOS guidance has trended lower with Tds and cooler overall so will generally follow this trend. Mid/upper trough approaching NWrn CONUS attm will progress toward the central CONUS between now and Thursday. By the end of the week, this wave deamplifies and a second, stronger, wave evolves over the plains/Midwest and moves east. Still some timing concerns. However, GFS brings related sfc feature and associated QPF field to the area on Friday into Saturday. Will include low-chance PoPs for Friday--not going any higher until more consistency in timing is exhibited in medium range models.

Hazardous Weather

Hazardous Weather Outlook (Monday through Friday): A cold front will approach the area overnight and will result in a continued chance for showers and thunderstorms until it passes Tuesday morning. Because the atmosphere is so moist, thunderstorms that do occur will be capable of very heavy rainfall which could lead to brief flooding of streets in urban areas. Widespread flooding problems are not expected, however. Although strong thunderstorms may bring heavy rainfall and dangerous lightning, severe thunderstorms are not expected.

Astronomical and Climatological Data
Moon Phase Crescent Waning Sunset 6:54 PM Sunrise 6:38 AM	09/18/06 Normal High Record High Normal Low Record Low Temperature 86°F 96°F (1925) 67°F 54°F (1981) September Normal Wettest Driest Precipitation 6.01 in. 24.12 in. (1998) 0.47 in. (1923)