Friday Evening Forecast

Forecast issued by Michael Leach on 09/29/06 at 1:43:22 pm CDT

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Tonight	Tomorrow	Sunday	Monday	Tuesday
	84°F	87°F	87°F	86°F
51°F		62°F	67°F	67°F
Lgt & Var	S 4-8 mph	Var 4-8 mph	ESE 4-8 mph	E 5-10 mph
0%	0%	0%	0%	0%

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Detailed Forecast

Tonight… Clear and cool. Low 51. Winds light and variable. Tomorrow... Sunny and warmer. High 84. Winds south 4-8 mph. Saturday Night... Clear. Low 62. Winds light and variable. Sunday... Mostly sunny. High 87. Winds variable 4-8 mph. Sunday Night... Mostly clear. Low 67. Winds light and variable. Monday... Mostly sunny. High 87. Winds east-southeast 4-8 mph. Monday Night... Mostly clear. Low 67. Winds light and variable. Tuesday... Mostly sunny. High 86. Winds east 5-10 mph. Tuesday Night... Mostly clear. Low 66. Winds light and variable.

Technical Discussion

Synopsis: A cold front has moved south of the Mobile area, ushering in cooler and drier air over the region. The front has pushed well south of the area, into the central Gulf of Mexico. A 1022 mb center of high pressure was analyzed over central Mississippi. CAA was ongoing over the region, with north to northwesterly winds both at the surface and at 850 mb. Early after temps were in the lower 70's, with dewpoints in the lower to middle 40's. Fall is definitely in the air (at least for today). 12z regional soundings indicate subsidence over the region, and backing winds indicative of CAA. PWAT values were well under 1" at both KLIX and KTLH. The NWS in Mobile has issued a Red Flag Warning for Mobile and Baldwin Counties, effective until 6 pm CDT this evening. Low relative humidities and gusty northerly winds could lead to conditions favoring the spread of wildfires. Short Term (Tonight through Sunday): The main concerns over the short term are temperatures. Under clear skies and light winds, tonight should be one of the coolest nights of the fall season so far (if not the coolest). Good radiational cooling should allow temperatures to fall rapidly after sunset. 12z MOS guidance is good agreement that lows tonight should bottom out in the lower 50's at KMOB. MAV indicates 50, while MET indicates 52. Will take a blend and call for a low of 51 tonight at KMOB. If that verifies, this will be the coolest reading of the season so far (we hit 54 this morning at KMOB, and also hit 54 a few days ago). With ample sunshine and winds shifting to a more southerly direction (slight WAA), Saturday should be warmer than today, with temps climbing into the mid 80's on Saturday. Saturday night should not be as cool as tonight, but lows will still fall to near average readings in the lower 60's. On Sunday, a weak cold front is expected to approach the area and move across the region Sunday afternoon or evening. With return flow not well-established and 500 mb ridge building across the region, not expecting any precip with this front. I toyed with the notion of adding a 'slight' 10 PoP for Sunday, but with no major lifting evident on model graphics, opted to leave a pop-free forecast for Sunday. Long Term (Monday through Tuesday): Not too much to discuss in the long term. Mid to upper level ridge should continue to build across the Southeastern United States Monday and Tuesday, with dry and warm temperatures expected. Highs should be in the mid to upper 80's, but would not be surprised to see a few spots touch 90 degrees. Overnight lows should also be above normal in the long term period The ridge should hang tough over the region through at least mid-week. Hopefully, this will be the last taste of summer for this year. ML

Hazardous Weather

Hazardous Weather Outlook (Friday through Tuesday): No hazardous weather is expected through the forecast period.

Astronomical and Climatological Data
Moon Phase First Sunset 6:40 PM Sunrise 6:45 AM	09/29/06 Normal High Record High Normal Low Record Low Temperature 84°F 94°F (1904) 63°F 42°F (1967) September Normal Wettest Driest Precipitation 6.01 in. 24.12 in. (1998) 0.47 in. (1923)