Friday Evening Forecast

Forecast issued by ML on 09/15/06 at 12:49:57 pm CDT

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Tonight	Tomorrow	Sunday	Monday	Tuesday
	90°F	89°F	86°F	86°F
61°F		64°F	70°F	71°F
Lgt & Var	Var 4-8 mph	S 5-10 mph	SSW 5-10 mph	WSW 5-10 mph
0%	0%	20%	40%	40%

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Detailed Forecast

Tonight… Clear. Low 61. Winds light and variable. Tomorrow... Sunny. High 90. Winds variable 4-8 mph. Saturday Night... Clear. Low 64. Winds light and variable. Sunday... Partly cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms. High 89. Winds south 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Sunday Night... Partly cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms. Low 70. Winds south 4-8 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Monday... Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. High 86. Winds south-southwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 40 percent. Monday Night... Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low 71. Winds southwest 4-8 mph. Chance of rain is 40 percent. Tuesday... Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. High 86. Winds west-southwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 40 percent. Tuesday Night... Decreasing clouds with isolated showers and thunderstorms. Low 66. Winds west-northwest 4-8 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent.

Technical Discussion

Synopsis: A very nice afternoon is underway across the Mobile Area Weather forecast area. Skies were sunny, and early afternoon temps were in the mid 80's across the region, with dewpoints ranging from the upper 50's to near 60 degrees. Dry air remained across the regioin, with PWAT values on 12z KLIX and KTLH soundings under 1.5". Also noted on the soundings was significant subsidence in the upper levels of the atmosphere. At the surface, high pressure ridging continued to dominate the area. Short Term (Tonight through Sunday): Tonight, expecting another relatively cool night across the area, with clear skies and light winds allowing radiational cooling to take place. Looking at current dewpoints (58 at KMOB and 60 at KBFM), believe that tonight will be as cool or maybe a couple of degrees cooler than last night. The low this morning was 63 at both KMOB and KBFM, and expect lows tonight to be closer to 60 degrees. Saturday will be similiar to today with sunny skies and warm temperatures. With abundant sunshine tomorrow, expecting highs to top out close to 90 degrees. Both GFS and NAM have winds becoming more southerly by tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night, so dewpoints may be a little higher. Therefore, Saturday night will be a little warmer than tonight, but still expecting lows to bottom out in the mid 60's with mostly clear skies and light winds. By Sunday, moisture levels will continue to increase, with GFS and ETA MOS indicating dewpoints climbing to around 70 degrees. Have introduced a slight chance of SHRA/TSRA for Sunday and Sunday night with the increase in moisture, but any significant rainfall should hold off until after the short term period. Long Term (Monday through Tuesday): A cold frontal passage and increased rain chances highlight the long term portion of the forecast. Moisture is expected to continue to increase on Monday as southerly winds will transport more gulf moisture across the region. The approach of a cold front and associated trough will add to the lifting across the area. GFS showing 500 mb trough a little farther south with this system than with the previous one, so upper level dynamics may be a little better over the region. Also, the GFS is indicated some weak vorticity maximums near the region which may help to further enhance the lifting. The ECMWF also indicated the trough moving across the area, but seemed to be a little slower with it's progression than the GFS. Plan on going with 40% PoP's for the period Monday through Tuesday. These PoP's are not as high as the GFSX MOS (which has likely PoP's), but with questions on the exact timing and magnitude of the trough and surface front, feel it is better to let future shifts fine-tune the details of the long term forecast. It is interesting to note that the SPC has a risk of severe thunderstorms just to our northwest on their Day 4-8 Outlook for Monday. Right now, it looks like the best dynamics with this system may stay off to our north and west, but it is something that we will watch. At this time, I don't plan to mention any strong or severe storms in the hazardous weather section, and will just mention the chance of SHRA/TSRA for Mon. and Tues. The GFS has the surface front passing through MOB sometime Tuesday afternoon. Looking at the ECMWF, looks like it delays the frontal passage until Tuesday Night/Wednesday morning. Will take a compromise of this solution, and expect the front to pass through Tuesday night. Therefore, will leave isolated PoP's in for Tuesday night, and will not go as low with minimum temps as the GFSX MOS. ML

Hazardous Weather

Short Term (Tonight Through Sunday): No hazardous weather is expected. Long Term (Monday through Tuesday): There will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms on Monday and Tuesday with the approach of a cold front.

Astronomical and Climatological Data
Moon Phase Last Sunset 6:57 PM Sunrise 6:37 AM	09/15/06 Normal High Record High Normal Low Record Low Temperature 87°F 97°F (1972) 68°F 54°F (1985) September Normal Wettest Driest Precipitation 6.01 in. 24.12 in. (1998) 0.47 in. (1923)

09/15 in Mobile Area Weather History

In 1960 a tropical system spawned an F0 tornado hit near Gosport in Clarke County, AL where a barn was destroyed, a home was damaged and several trees were uprooted. Also, in 2004 outer feeder bands from hurricane Ivan produced a tornado near Dixie in Escambia County, FL that moved into Baldwin County, AL near Ono Island and moved towards Josephine before dissipating. The tornado caused minor damage. Another tornado spawned by Ivan in 2004 produced an F0 tornado near Castleberry in Conecuh County, AL where it caused timber damage. (Data compiled from NWS Mobile, NWS Birmingham, newspaper articles, USA Archives and HurricaneCity.com)