| Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast |
| Tonight |
Tomorrow |
Saturday |
Sunday |
Monday |
 |
 |
|
|
 |
|
86°F |
87°F |
85°F |
85°F |
| 70°F |
|
74°F |
74°F |
70°F |
| SE 5-10 mph |
S 7-14 mph |
S 7-14 mph |
SW 7-14 mph |
N 5-10 mph |
| 20% |
40% |
30% |
50% |
10% |
| Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Detailed Forecast |
Tonight… Partly cloudy with isolated showers, mainly after midnight. Low 70. Winds southeast 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent.
Tomorrow... Partly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. High 86. Winds south 7-14 mph. Chance of rain is 40 percent.
Friday Night... Partly cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms. Low 74. Winds south 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent.
Saturday... Partly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. High 87. Winds south 7-14 mph. Chance of rain is 30 percent.
Saturday Night... Partly cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms. Low 74. Winds south 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent.
Sunday... Partly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. High 85. Winds southwest 7-14 mph. Chance of rain is 50 percent.
Sunday Night... Partly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low 70. Winds west 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 40 percent.
Monday... Partly cloudy. High 85. Winds north 5-10 mph.
Monday Night... Mostly clear. Low 64. Winds north 4-8 mph.
|
| Technical Discussion |
Synopsis:
Today has been another very pleasant day across the Mobile area. Dewpoints remain rather low (60 at KMOB at 12z), but are gradually rising as surface winds have shifted to the southeast. Also, a few clouds have begun to develop over the air as the air moistens. 17z RUC shows that WAA has started over the area at 850 mb. 12z regional soundings indicated signinifant subsidence starting around 900 mb, with PWAT values of under 1" (significantly below normal). With the WAA pattern and Gulf moisture returning, expect PWAT's to be significantly higher in future soundings.
Short Term (Tonight through Saturday):
Precip chances are the main challenge in the short term. WAA pattern will conitnue across the area tonight. With rising dewpoints and more cloud cover, overnight lows tonight will be much higher than last night. Models have dewpoints climbing into the upper 60's to lower 70's overnight. With some isentropic lift occurring across the area, expect a few showers to develop over the area toinght. Slight chance PoP's seem to cover this well. Models indicate development tonight initially over Gulf waters, with some activity spreading inland overnight. Friday, GFS and NAM both really increase precip chances with MOS guidance indicating PoP's of around 80%. I believe that the models are overdoing the precip chances for tomorrow. Looking at the upper levels of the atmosphere, I see no real indications of any significant lifting that would support PoP's that high. Both GFS and NAM show some very weak pertubations in the 500 mb flow which may be enough to lead to some lifting across the area on Friday. But any PVA looks to be weak. WAA advection looks to continue at 850 mb, with a LLJ between 20-30 kts. indicated on models. With all that said, going 40 PoP for Friday looks reasonable, and mainly for the afternoon hours with diurnal heating. Saturday, with deep moisture remaining over the area, and with diurnal heating, expect scattered SHRA/TSRA to affect the area. Prefer the NAM on Saturday as it seems to have a better handle on QPF fields. Will keep 30 PoP for Saturday. Long Term (Sunday through Monday):
Rain chances were increased to 50% for Sunday with the approach of an upper level trough and associated cold front. The NAM indicates more lifting than the GFS in association with the trough, and has higher QPF values across the area. In fact, with -15 omega values approaching the area Sunday afternoon on the NAM, the model is indicating a rather robust line of convection approaching the area. The GFS 500 mb pattern is not as amplified as the NAM, with much less lifting indicated. The GFS is also quicker with fropa than the NAM. If the GFS were to verify, the main chance of rain would be Sunday afternoon. If the NAM were to verify, the rain could hold off until Sunday evening. At this time, will indicate 50% PoP's for Sunday during the day, tapering off to 40% Sunday night. Future forecasters can fine-tune the PoP forecast. As far as any severe weather goes, the main risk of severe weather will likely be well to our north. However, if the NAM verifies, with a sharper trough moving through the region, would not be surprised to see a few strong thunderstorms. Will not mention this in the hazardous weather section at this time, but will continue to monitor. Monday, if the models are correct the front should have cleared the region. However, I am more inclined to go with a slower fropa than models at this time as models often slow down the progression of fronts as the timeframe gets closer. I did not decrease clouds as quickly as the GFS indicates, and left a silent 10% PoP in the forecast for Monday, just in case the front moves through later than what models indicate at this time. By Monday night, expect mostly clear skies, with cooler overnight temperatures returning.
ML
|
| Hazardous Weather |
Hazardous Weather Outlook (Thursday through Monday):
No hazardous weather is expected through the forecast period.
|
|
Astronomical and Climatological Data |
Moon Phase
New Moon
Sunset 6:50 PM
Sunrise 6:40 AM |
| 09/21/06 | Normal
High | Record High | Normal
Low | Record Low | | Temperature |
86°F | 99°F (1925) | 67°F | 51°F (1918) |
| September | Normal | Wettest | Driest | | | Precipitation | 6.01 in. | 24.12 in. (1998) | 0.47 in. (1923) | |
| 09/21 in Mobile Area Weather History | | In 1926 a hurricane approached from the southeast and gradually weakened. However, newspaper reports indicate that the offshore winds were able to push the water out of Mobile Bay. While the storm had a history of producing winds over 100 mph offshore, the Mobile area experienced 60 mph winds as the storm moved northwest. The storm paralleled the Alabama coast before making landfall over the west Mississippi coastline. (Data compiled from NWS Mobile, NWS Birmingham, newspaper articles, USA Archives and HurricaneCity.com) |
Tuesday Morning Forecast
Forecast issued by Justin Gibbs on 09/19/06 at 12:53:01 am CDT
| Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast |
| Today |
Wednesday |
Thursday |
Friday |
Saturday |
|
 |
 |
|
|
| 84°F |
83°F |
85°F |
86°F |
84°F |
|
58°F |
60°F |
69°F |
70°F |
| SW 5-10 mph |
Lgt NW |
S 5-10 mph |
SE 5-10 mph |
SW 5-10 mph |
| 60% |
0% |
0% |
30% |
30% |
| Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Detailed Forecast |
Today... Variable cloudiness with showers and thunderstorms likely in the morning. Then clearing and cooler. High 84. Winds southwest 5-10 mph, shifting to the northwest at 5-10 mph by afternoon. Chance of rain is 60 percent.
Tonight... Mostly clear. Low 58. Winds northwest 5-10 mph.
Wednesday... Sunny. High 83. Winds Light northwest winds.
Wednesday Night... Clear. Low 60. Winds south 5-10 mph.
Thursday... Mostly sunny. High 85. Winds south 5-10 mph.
Thursday Night... Mostly clear. Low 69. Winds south 5-10 mph.
Friday... Partly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. High 86. Winds southeast 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 30 percent.
Friday Night... Partly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low 70. Winds south 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 30 percent.
Saturday... Partly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. High 84. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 30 percent.
|
| Technical Discussion |
Synopsis:
04z Surface Analysis lines up cold front along a line from KBTR to KTCL to KGAD. Upper air charts indicate a nearly vertically stacked closed low centered over NERN MN which is responsible for the sfc cyclone. 500/700mb RAOB data indicate a s/wv across western LA and SRN AR. KLIX/KTLH soundings show a very saturated air mass with minimal positive buoy area with SBCAPEs aoa 1500 j/kg. Upper air analysis shows slightly cooler air aloft closer to the main s/wv axis which combined with sfc convergence invof the frontal boundary is believed to be responsible for the latest flare up of +TSRA currently located acrdoss SRN MS/NRN LA.
Forecast Discussion (Tuesday through Saturday):
Short Term...
Main forecast challenge is handing of 1st period pops. Guidance is in firm agreement of a 12-14z FROPA. WV/Soundings indicate bone dry air behind the main frontal boundary so do not expect anything in the form of postfrontal precip. Given the saturated air above us and the nature of the development to our west there is a 70-80% chance of precip across the Mobile metro area with the system however linear extrapolation of the line brings it through around 4:30 a.m. So it is simply a matter of making a determination if the system will clear before or after 6 a.m. So will assume it may slow some and go with 60% morning pop wording. Will also stick with going high which is a touch below MOS but will allow for full FROPA+loss of about 3 hours of insolation+lower heighs associated with deep layer s/wv. Severe weather currently appears rather unlikely as a look at forecast/observed soundings show a very thin positive area on the sounding which will largely limit updraft acceleration (which is likely why storms over SRN MS are having a hard time producing dBZ values above 50 at ~20kft.) Additional daytime heating post 12z may allow for some stronger storms, but this line should be moving east of the area before much in the way of substantial heating is expected.
Tuesday evening puts us in a very dry postfrontal airmass with relatively light northwest winds. Weak ridging builds in at the sfc and aloft by tomorrow evening. Fcst soundings continue to show very low PWAT values with Tds down in the mid to upper 50s across the board as well. Going forecast sems to have a good handle on the next few periods as ridge builds at the sfc before being pushed eastward by our next feature expected to arrive Friday.
Long Term...
NAM/GFS/ECMWF both develop another strong upper level storm system which forms a sfc cyclone that pushes NE'wd across the central CONUS. As this low builds, our sfc winds will shift to the south and southeast. Will stick with going forecasts handling of doing this on Thursday. Thursday evening projects a rather substantial airmass modification as again our very dry airmass is loaded up with moisture as the dominant low/mid/upper level flow becomes southerly ahead of the appraoching trof.
Frontal passage is a bit tricky as GFS/UKMET both appear to develop another southerly sfc low which slows things down rather substantially. GFS even appears to hint at the idea the boundary will nearly wash out altogether. This doesnt appear particuarly likely at the time given the strength of the upper level pattern so will not make any changes to the going package's handling of PoPs as a more conservative approach appears prudent with this system. ECMWF goes ahead with frontal passage during the early morning Saturday and that is the preferred solution for this package. Will introduce 30 POPs to the daypart Saturday.
|
| Hazardous Weather |
Hazardous Weather Outlook (Tuesday through Saturday):
A cold front will approach the area overnight and will result in a continued chance for showers and thunderstorms until it passes Tuesday morning. Because the atmosphere is so moist, thunderstorms that do occur will be capable of very heavy rainfall which could lead to brief flooding of streets in urban areas. Widespread flooding problems are not expected, however. Although strong thunderstorms may bring heavy rainfall and dangerous lightning, severe thunderstorms are not expected.
|
|
Astronomical and Climatological Data |
Moon Phase
Crescent Waning
Sunrise 6:38 AM
Sunset 6:52 PM |
| 09/19/06 | Normal
High | Record High | Normal
Low | Record Low | | Temperature |
86°F | 97°F (1925) | 67°F | 48°F (1981) |
| September | Normal | Wettest | Driest | | | Precipitation | 6.01 in. | 24.12 in. (1998) | 0.47 in. (1923) | |
| 09/19 in Mobile Area Weather History | | In 1998 an early afternoon storm produced a waterspout that moved inland near Gulf Shores in Baldwin County, AL. The tornado quickly weakened and no damage was found. (Data compiled from NWS Mobile, NWS Birmingham, newspaper articles, USA Archives and HurricaneCity.com) |
Monday Night Forecast
Forecast issued by Randy Bowers on 09/18/06 at 6:22:35 pm CDT
| Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast |
| Tonight |
Tomorrow |
Wednesday |
Thursday |
Friday |
 |
|
|
|
 |
|
84°F |
83°F |
85°F |
86°F |
| 73°F |
|
58°F |
60°F |
68°F |
| SW 4-8 mph |
SW 5-10 mph |
NW 5-10 mph |
S 5-10 mph |
S 5-10 mph |
| 50% |
50% |
0% |
0% |
30% |
| Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Detailed Forecast |
Tonight… Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Areas of fog possible. Low 73. Winds southwest 4-8 mph. Chance of rain is 50 percent.
Tomorrow... Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning. Partial clearing during the afternoon. High 84. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 50 percent.
Tuesday Night... Clear. Low 58. Winds southwest 5-10 mph shifting to the nortwest by afternoon.
Wednesday... Sunny. High 83. Winds northwest 5-10 mph.
Wednesday Night... Clear. Low 60. Winds east 2-4 mph.
Thursday... Mostly sunny. High 85. Winds south 5-10 mph.
Thursday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 68. Winds south 4-8 mph.
Friday... Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. High 86. Winds south 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 30 percent.
Friday Night... Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low 69. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 30 percent.
|
| Technical Discussion |
|
More insolation than expected this morning through early afternoon allowed quick warming w/ KMOB verification point reaching 90F at 1856Z just before convective rains cooled ob site. Increased surface-based instability resulted in steeper low level lapse rates and higher MLCAPE values allowing for widespread diurnal convection. Convection ongoing across the area late this afternoon with heaviest concentration now east of Mobile. Surface boundary is lagging way behind best concentration of convection and was analyzed from northwest MS to just west of JAN to east-central TX. A weak sfc low has formed along this boundary just west of JAN. 88D composite showed weak convective elements near/along this boundary. However, stronger and more widespread convection was located well ahead of this boundary in association with pre-frontal wind shift/ongoing SQLN.
Plan to cut back on overnight PoPs rather substantially given current trends. NAM QPF seems overdone. Additionally, new 18z NAM slows fropa to about 15z. See little reason for high-end PoPs until closer to fropa timeframe. Even then, high-end PoPs may very well be unnecessary. Best divergence stays north and with meager instability /nocturnal cooling/ thinking high-change PoPs will suffice. Even high-chance would probably be a bit much but am not willing to gamble. Plan to carry high-chance PoPs through morning in anticipation of AOA 15z FROPA.
If gradient overnight is less than anticipated, fog formation will become a concern. Already winds at KMOB and points west /closer to the front/ are lower than guidance values prog. Feel that with widespread activity earlier resulting in soaked ground in many location that at least some patchy light fog will develop. Will go ahead and make mention of this.
Column dries substantially following FROPA with PWAT values below one inch late Tue through late-week. In fact, with sfc Td values dropping well into the 50s, expecting overnight lows to do so as well. MOS guidance has trended lower with Tds and cooler overall so will generally follow this trend. Mid/upper trough approaching NWrn CONUS attm will progress toward the central CONUS between now and Thursday. By the end of the week, this wave deamplifies and a second, stronger, wave evolves over the plains/Midwest and moves east. Still some timing concerns. However, GFS brings related sfc feature and associated QPF field to the area on Friday into Saturday. Will include low-chance PoPs for Friday--not going any higher until more consistency in timing is exhibited in medium range models.
|
| Hazardous Weather |
Hazardous Weather Outlook (Monday through Friday):
A cold front will approach the area overnight and will result in a continued chance for showers and thunderstorms until it passes Tuesday morning. Because the atmosphere is so moist, thunderstorms that do occur will be capable of very heavy rainfall which could lead to brief flooding of streets in urban areas. Widespread flooding problems are not expected, however. Although strong thunderstorms may bring heavy rainfall and dangerous lightning, severe thunderstorms are not expected.
|
|
Astronomical and Climatological Data |
Moon Phase
Crescent Waning
Sunset 6:54 PM
Sunrise 6:38 AM |
| 09/18/06 | Normal
High | Record High | Normal
Low | Record Low | | Temperature |
86°F | 96°F (1925) | 67°F | 54°F (1981) |
| September | Normal | Wettest | Driest | | | Precipitation | 6.01 in. | 24.12 in. (1998) | 0.47 in. (1923) | |
Monday Morning Forecast
Forecast issued by Michael Leach and Jason Holmes on 09/18/06 at 12:00:40 am CDT
| Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast |
| Today |
Tuesday |
Wednesday |
Thursday |
Friday |
 |
|
|
|
|
| 86°F |
84°F |
82°F |
85°F |
87°F |
|
72°F |
59°F |
61°F |
68°F |
| SSW 7-14 mph |
NW 7-14 mph |
N 5-10 mph |
SSE 5-10 mph |
S 5-10 mph |
| 80% |
40% |
0% |
0% |
30% |
| Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Detailed Forecast |
Today... Mostly cloudy with rain and thunderstorms. High 86. Winds south-southwest 7-14 mph. Chance of rain is 80 percent.
Tonight... Mostly cloudy with rain and thunderstorms. Low 72. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 70 percent.
Tuesday... A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the morning. Otherwise, partly cloudy. High 84. Winds northwest 7-14 mph. Chance of rain is 40 percent.
Tuesday Night... Mostly clear. Low 59. Winds north 5-10 mph.
Wednesday... Mostly sunny. High 82. Winds north 5-10 mph.
Wednesday Night... Mostly clear. Low 61. Winds east 4-8 mph.
Thursday... Partly cloudy. High 85. Winds south-southeast 5-10 mph.
Thursday Night... Partly cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms. Low 68. Winds south 4-8 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent.
Friday... Partly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. High 87. Winds south 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 30 percent.
|
| Technical Discussion |
Synopsis:
Currently, an area of high pressure is centered over North Carolina. The rotation around this high gave us a southerly wind on Sunday, bringing in higher moisture values across the area. Dewpoints climbed into the middle 70's across the region on Sunday, and continue to hold in the 70's early this Monday morning. The barometric pressure has continued to fall over the past 24 hours as the high pressure area has shifted off to our east, and a cold front is approaching the area from the northwest. 00z regional soundings indicate the WAA pattern across the area, with veering winds noted on the soundings. KLIX and KTLH soundings show PWAT values significantly higher than yesterday at this time (2.28" at KLIX and 2.13" at KTLH). Interpolated sounding for Mobile shows PWAT values of 2.27", CAPE of 1583 J/KG, and LI of -4.2. Also noted is the veering winds from just above the surface up to around 500 mb.
Short Term (Monday through Wednesday):
The main challenges in the short term involve rain chances and the potential for strong storms. A very moist airmass is expected to remain over the area until fropa. The NAM is indicating that PWAT values could approach 2.50" over the area Monday night. This could lead to some heavy rainfall amounts over the area Monday through Tuesday. As previous forecast alluded to, widespread flooding is not a concern at this time due to the progressive nature of the system, but some localized flooding could be possible with the heavier showers and thunderstorms. As far as the severe threat goes, it looks rather minimal at this time. With the expected cloud cover, significant destabilization is not expected. However, if we were to get some breaks in the cloud cover during the day tomorrow, the air may destabilize more than currently anticipated. Also, models do not predict too much instability over the area (although CAPE values from regional 00z soundings were a little higher than model initializations). NAM and GFS both show a LLJ of around 30 to maybe 35 kts. tomorrow through Tuesday morning. With that said, we may get a few strong wind gusts with storms, and a few gusts may approach severe limits in isolated storms. This will be mentioned in hazardous weather section. The cold front is expected to move across the area on Tuesday. The GFS is a little quicker than the NAM with fropa. The GFS indicates fropa around 15z Tuesday morning, while the NAM indicates fropa closer to 18z on Tuesday. This is not a major difference between models, and expect the front to pass through sometime Tuesday morning or early afternoon. Therefore, will have PoP's on Tuesday mainly for the morning hours, with decreasing chances by the afternoon. Tuesday night looks rather cool at this time, with MOS guidance indicating lows in the upper 50's to around 60 degrees. Did not go quite as low at the MAV and MET guidance, and kept lows around 60 for Tuesday night. Wednesday looks to be a nice day, with CAA aloft, and surface high pressure ridging taking control of the weather. Sunny skies and highs in the lower 80's with dewpoints in the 50's can be expected on Wednesday. The MET guidance actually indicates highs staying in the upper 70's for Wednesday. Long Term (Thursday through Friday):
Return flow from the Gulf is expected beginning on Thursday. Winds are expected to shift to the east, and eventually to the south on Thursday, bringing in more Gulf moisture to the region. Dewpoints will be on the increase on Thursday, and will likely climb back into the mid 60's. Still going with no PoP's on Thursday as only an increase in clouds is expected during the day. Kept the slight chance PoP for Thursday night as moisture becomes more entrenched over the area. Another trough and cold front will approach the area on Friday. The GFS is showing this trough and associated closed upper level low a little farther south than the current system we are dealing with. This trough also looks rather amplified on the GFS. At this time, will be conservative, and only go with 30% PoP on Friday. This may need to be increased in future forecasts. The rain chances will likely stick around through at least Saturday, until another cold front passes through the area.
ML/JH
|
| Hazardous Weather |
Short Term (Monday through Tuesday afternoon):
A strong cold front will approach the area from the northwest through Tuesday. Some of the thunderstorms may be strong with only isolated severe weather possible. The main threat from any severe storm would be damaging winds. Other storms may produce torrential rainfall that may cause localized flooding of low-lying or poor drainage areas along with gusty winds and frequent lightning strikes. The highest potential for strong to severe thunderstorms will primarily be from Monday afternoon through early Tuesday morning.
JH/MLLong Term (Tuesday evening through Friday):
No hazardous weather is expected.
JH/ML
|
|
Astronomical and Climatological Data |
Moon Phase
Crescent Waning
Sunrise 6:38 AM
Sunset 6:54 PM |
| 09/18/06 | Normal
High | Record High | Normal
Low | Record Low | | Temperature |
86°F | 96°F (1925) | 67°F | 54°F (1981) |
| September | Normal | Wettest | Driest | | | Precipitation | 6.01 in. | 24.12 in. (1998) | 0.47 in. (1923) | |
Sunday Night Forecast
Forecast issued by Randy Bowers on 09/17/06 at 5:36:13 pm CDT
| Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast |
| Tonight |
Tomorrow |
Tuesday |
Wednesday |
Thursday |
|
|
|
|
 |
|
85°F |
84°F |
84°F |
86°F |
| 73°F |
|
71°F |
60°F |
62°F |
| S 5-10 mph |
SW 5-10 mph |
NW 5-10 mph |
N 5-10 mph |
S 5-10 mph |
| 30% |
80% |
20% |
0% |
0% |
| Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Detailed Forecast |
Tonight… Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low 73. Winds south 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 30 percent.
Tomorrow... Partly cloudy with rain and thunderstorms, especially during the afternoon. High 85. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 80 percent.
Monday Night... Mostly cloudy with rain and thunderstorms. Low 71. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 80 percent.
Tuesday... A chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning. Otherwise partly cloudy. High 84. Winds northwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 50 percent.
Tuesday Night... Mostly clear. Low 60. Winds north 5-10 mph.
Wednesday... Mostly sunny. High 84. Winds north 5-10 mph.
Wednesday Night... Mostly clear. Low 62. Winds southeast 4-8 mph.
Thursday... Becoming partly cloudy. High 86. Winds south 5-10 mph.
Thursday Night... Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low 68. Winds south 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent.
|
| Technical Discussion |
.Current…
SHRA/TSRA has developed generally west of Mobile across Srn MS/Ern LA this afternoon. Extensive CU/TCU field present w/ sharp contrast from to clear skies arced northeast of a MEI to GZH line. SErly sfc flow and higher RH values from the sfc through at least H85 were present west of aforementioned line, with drier sfc-H85 layer east of the line.
.Summary…
A series of relatively intense mid/upper troughs will cross the CONUS over the next several days. The first will impact the forecast area starting tomorrow. Once it passes another stronger / more amplified/ trough takes shape over the plains bringing precipitation chances back to the end of the week. Active pattern appears to continue beyond the extended period.
.Short Term…
Broad diffluent upper flow pattern becomes established over a large portion of the Mississippi Valley ahead of plains trough. Stronger flow aloft remains north of the forecast area. Surface boundary approaches overnight Monday and crosses early Tuesday morning. There area some timing consistency issues, though not significant. NAM slowed up fropa in the 12z run but sped up slightly in the 18z run. Went with consistent with previous forecast and will keep highest PoPs confined to the Monday night period, tapering them off on Tuesday.
Deep moisture and widespread nature of precipitation may result in heavy rainfall. Not concerned with flooding attm because of progressive nature of this system. Severe threat seems marginal at best. Given widespread clouds, significant destabilization not expected. Poor lapse rates likely to limit overall instability. Additionally, sfc boundary looks to be displaced to the east of best shear. A few bow/LEWP structures could lead to severe/near severe gusts, but these events will be isolated. Have mentioned threat in HWO.
.Long Term…
High pressure ridge builds in following fropa on Tuesday. Clear/dry weather through midweek before sfc ridge shifts Ewrd and sfc flow quickly shifts to the south by Thur afternoon. Rapid return of moisture progged by Fri ahead of next system. This next system currently progged to be more intense than early week system with a much more amplified trough depicted on GFS. Will add small PoP for overnight Thur night period as system approaches but expecting more significant rain/thunderstorm threat into Friday/Saturday as system passes.
|
| Hazardous Weather |
Hazardous Weather Outlook (Sunday through Thursday):
An unseasonably intense storm system will impact the area Monday into early Tuesday morning. Thunderstorms and heavy rain will be common across the area tomorrow, especially late in the day. As the system passes through overnight Monday night or very early Tuesday morning, the threat for heavy rain and thunderstorms will continue. The threat for severe thunderstorms with this system is not particularly high. However, isolated marginally severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. The primary threat will be isolated instances of damaging winds. The most likely time for severe weather will be between 9 p.m. Monday evening and 9 a.m. Tuesday morning. The areas which experience heavy rainfall may see minor flooding of flood-prone areas. However, widespread flooding problems are not expected.
|
|
Astronomical and Climatological Data |
Moon Phase
Crescent Waning
Sunset 6:55 PM
Sunrise 6:38 AM |
| 09/17/06 | Normal
High | Record High | Normal
Low | Record Low | | Temperature |
87°F | 100°F (1927) | 68°F | 57°F (1961) |
| September | Normal | Wettest | Driest | | | Precipitation | 6.01 in. | 24.12 in. (1998) | 0.47 in. (1923) | |
Saturday Morning Forecast
Forecast issued by Justin Gibbs on 09/16/06 at 2:00:35 am CDT
| Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast |
| Today |
Sunday |
Monday |
Tuesday |
Wednesday |
|
|
|
|
|
| 91°F |
90°F |
88°F |
85°F |
84°F |
|
67°F |
69°F |
67°F |
66°F |
| Var 4-8 mph |
SE 4-8 mph |
S 10-15 mph |
WSW 5-10 mph |
Lgt & Var |
| 0% |
30% |
60% |
50% |
10% |
| Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Detailed Forecast |
Today... Mostly sunny. High 91. Winds variable 4-8 mph.
Tonight... Mostly clear. Low 67. Winds southeast 2-4 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent.
Sunday... Increasing clouds with scattered showers and thunderstorms. High 90. Winds southeast 4-8 mph. Chance of rain is 30 percent.
Sunday Night... Mostly cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms. Low 69. Winds southeast 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent.
Monday... Partly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. High 88. Winds south 10-15 mph. Chance of rain is 60 percent.
Monday Night... Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. Low 67. Winds south 10-15 mph. Chance of rain is 60 percent.
Tuesday... Mostly sunny with scattered showers and thunderstorms. High 85. Winds west-southwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 50 percent.
Tuesday Night... Mostly clear. Low 66. Winds west-northwest 5-10 mph.
Wednesday... Mostly sunny. High 84. Winds light and variable.
|
| Technical Discussion |
Synopsis:
05z Surface analysis reveals a very weak ridge has built in just to our west roughly centered from KMCB/KMEI/KGTR. The influence of this ridge has calmed our winds at most stations across the area. Very dry airmass remains in place as evidenced by WV imagery and KLIX/KTLH soundings which show PWATs at 1.5 and 1.4 with strong subsidence evident from both soundings. That has led to a nearly classic environment for the radiational cooling that is occuring tonight. Aloft as would be expected analysis reveals strong ridging with the axis at 3/500mb roughly located from MSY to ORD.
Downstream, however, tells a much different story as a powerful upper level low sits over the NW CONUS which has led to rapid sfc cyclogenesis over the central CONUS tonight. 850/700mb analysis indicates the airmass over the central US is being rapidly modified as the sphere of the cyclones influence increases...with SE'ly winds being reported this morning as far east as Memphis, TN. "
"Forecast Discussion (Saturday through Wednesday):
Short Term...
Saturday is appears for now the ridging at the sfc and aloft will remain in control of the weather pattern. Little overall change from what we saw today is expected at this time with GFS/NAM forecast soundings both showing little modification of the airmass and moisture fields present. However, the column depth will be slightly greater as the upper level ridge axis moves overhead so will bump the high up 1 degree to come in line with latest MOS, which is 1 degree above Friday's high and appears rather appropriate.
Saturday evening should be similar to Friday evening except we will then begin to see the slow transition to the more active pattern as the winds likely will begin to pick up from the southeast in advance of the sfc cyclone overnight Saturday.
By Sunday GFS/NAM both project the upper level storm system will have opened and given way to a secondary shortwave which will amplify and push eastward. GFS/NAM are also in excellent agreement developing a secondary 300/500mb jet streak south of the main trof which then phases late Sunday and early Monday over the Mid MS VLY. This phasing will enhance divergence tremendously in the area and the placement of the vort max along the main longwave trof, and it appears appropriate for secondary sfc cyclogenesis late Sunday/early Monday over the MD MS VLY. NAM appears to catch onto this solution and is the preferred model for now regarding the details of this particular event.
Airmass undergoes substantial changes during the day Sunday so will be bumping up cloud cloud cover which previous forecaster has already done. Wind forecast also looks to be in good shape for now as well. However, it may need to be tweaked upward slightly especially if we see this secondary low develop across the Mid MS VLY. Will bump pops to 30% as a few perturbations are hinted at in the mean flow aloft as we start to destabilize our airmass as the flow becomes nearly entirely southerly in the low levels as the shortwave trof approaches.
Sunday evening will also go with 20% pops as we will remain a bit too far away from the main forcing to see much in the way of non-seabreeze forced daytime convection.
Long Term...
Monday things get a bit murky. NAM is the preferred model here as GFS begins to suffer from convective feedback and develops a sfc low over ERN TX which then plays a bit of havoc with the timing regarding the rest of the features. NAM however continues to develop the mid ms vly sfc low, warmfrontogenesis associated with the sfc low occurs across WRN FL/SRN AL Monday afternoon/evening. The airmass undergoes substantial modification as the shortwave appraoches and becomes rather unstable with SBCAPEs indicated around 2000 j/kg with deep layer shear increasing. NAM is a touch further south again tonight with the main upper level energy which increases deep layer shear as the convection gets underway.
If this solution were to verify a rather convectively active period can be expected invof the warm front during the afternoon and evening hours Monday, with severe weather well within the realm of possibility, especially if we see a verification of the GFSs suggestion of the LLJ increasing to 50-60kts as the gradient between the trof and a ridge building to the SE verifies. However, for now we still prefer the slightly more conservative NAM which puts it invof 30-35kts. The main questions regard the assumptions made in this forecast regarding the sfc cyclogenesis and the NAMs general handling of the fine scale features needed to produce such an event. Will however bump the Monday/Monday night period to 60 pops.
Tuesday is a bit tricky with ECMWF dragging the frontal system behind til about 18z Tuesday with the NAM having us nearly completely cleared out by about 12z. Will for now go with 50% pops assuming we see a slight slowing of the system which is essentially a coin flip regarding the number of available permutations this system may take. More things will slow this system down (deeper UL trof, deeper sfc cyclogenesis, or perhaps weaker than fcst low level windfields) than would speed it up (stronger ridging behind the trof) so will go with that solution on a split difference of ECMWF/NAM.
ECMWF is preferred solution for extended due to the substantial impacts of convective feedback from the GFS. MEX MOS temps however appear relatively reasonable for Wed so will go with that general idea as a first guess on post FROPA airmass. Synoptically ECMWF clears us out nicely. as ridging behind the frontal system builds in and our upper level flow becomes rather swift...but zonal.
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| Hazardous Weather |
Hazardous Weather Outlook (Saturday through Wednesday):
Organized showers and thunderstorms are likely during the afternoon and overnight hours Monday and early Tuesday as a powerful storm system and cold front moves through the area. There are some questions regarding this system but it appears at this time there is a chance that some of these storms may be severe with isolated tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail being the main threats.
Continue to monitor later forecasts for updates regarding this storm system.
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|
Astronomical and Climatological Data |
Moon Phase
Last
Sunrise 6:37 AM
Sunset 6:56 PM |
| 09/16/06 | Normal
High | Record High | Normal
Low | Record Low | | Temperature |
87°F | 101°F (1927) | 68°F | 55°F (1961) |
| September | Normal | Wettest | Driest | | | Precipitation | 6.01 in. | 24.12 in. (1998) | 0.47 in. (1923) | |
| 09/16 in Mobile Area Weather History | | In 1971 afternoon storms spawned two F2 tornadoes, the first tornado hit south of Stockton in Baldwin County, AL where it demolished at least 2 mobile homes, destroyed a few barns, and damaged at least 10 homes. The second F2 tornado hit east of Fairhope in Baldwin County, AL where it tore apart 2 homes and damaged several other houses. That evening, a storm spawned a tornado near Tibbie in Washington County, AL that destroyed several small buildings. The tornado severely damaged a house and several large chicken houses and downed numerous trees. Also, in 2004 hurricane Ivan spun ashore near Orange Beach in Baldwin County, AL. The storm contained sustained winds over 100 mph at landfall and caused extensive damage from the surge along the coast of Alabama and Florida. Widespread wind damage resulted as it traveled inland towards central Alabama. (Data compiled from NWS Mobile, NWS Birmingham, newspaper articles, USA Archives and HurricaneCity.com) |
Friday Evening Forecast
Forecast issued by ML on 09/15/06 at 12:49:57 pm CDT
| Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast |
| Tonight |
Tomorrow |
Sunday |
Monday |
Tuesday |
 |
|
|
|
|
|
90°F |
89°F |
86°F |
86°F |
| 61°F |
|
64°F |
70°F |
71°F |
| Lgt & Var |
Var 4-8 mph |
S 5-10 mph |
SSW 5-10 mph |
WSW 5-10 mph |
| 0% |
0% |
20% |
40% |
40% |
| Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Detailed Forecast |
Tonight… Clear. Low 61. Winds light and variable.
Tomorrow... Sunny. High 90. Winds variable 4-8 mph.
Saturday Night... Clear. Low 64. Winds light and variable.
Sunday... Partly cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms. High 89. Winds south 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent.
Sunday Night... Partly cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms. Low 70. Winds south 4-8 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent.
Monday... Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. High 86. Winds south-southwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 40 percent.
Monday Night... Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low 71. Winds southwest 4-8 mph. Chance of rain is 40 percent.
Tuesday... Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. High 86. Winds west-southwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 40 percent.
Tuesday Night... Decreasing clouds with isolated showers and thunderstorms. Low 66. Winds west-northwest 4-8 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent.
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| Technical Discussion |
Synopsis:
A very nice afternoon is underway across the Mobile Area Weather forecast area. Skies were sunny, and early afternoon temps were in the mid 80's across the region, with dewpoints ranging from the upper 50's to near 60 degrees. Dry air remained across the regioin, with PWAT values on 12z KLIX and KTLH soundings under 1.5". Also noted on the soundings was significant subsidence in the upper levels of the atmosphere. At the surface, high pressure ridging continued to dominate the area.
Short Term (Tonight through Sunday):
Tonight, expecting another relatively cool night across the area, with clear skies and light winds allowing radiational cooling to take place. Looking at current dewpoints (58 at KMOB and 60 at KBFM), believe that tonight will be as cool or maybe a couple of degrees cooler than last night. The low this morning was 63 at both KMOB and KBFM, and expect lows tonight to be closer to 60 degrees. Saturday will be similiar to today with sunny skies and warm temperatures. With abundant sunshine tomorrow, expecting highs to top out close to 90 degrees. Both GFS and NAM have winds becoming more southerly by tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night, so dewpoints may be a little higher. Therefore, Saturday night will be a little warmer than tonight, but still expecting lows to bottom out in the mid 60's with mostly clear skies and light winds. By Sunday, moisture levels will continue to increase, with GFS and ETA MOS indicating dewpoints climbing to around 70 degrees. Have introduced a slight chance of SHRA/TSRA for Sunday and Sunday night with the increase in moisture, but any significant rainfall should hold off until after the short term period. Long Term (Monday through Tuesday):
A cold frontal passage and increased rain chances highlight the long term portion of the forecast. Moisture is expected to continue to increase on Monday as southerly winds will transport more gulf moisture across the region. The approach of a cold front and associated trough will add to the lifting across the area. GFS showing 500 mb trough a little farther south with this system than with the previous one, so upper level dynamics may be a little better over the region. Also, the GFS is indicated some weak vorticity maximums near the region which may help to further enhance the lifting. The ECMWF also indicated the trough moving across the area, but seemed to be a little slower with it's progression than the GFS. Plan on going with 40% PoP's for the period Monday through Tuesday. These PoP's are not as high as the GFSX MOS (which has likely PoP's), but with questions on the exact timing and magnitude of the trough and surface front, feel it is better to let future shifts fine-tune the details of the long term forecast. It is interesting to note that the SPC has a risk of severe thunderstorms just to our northwest on their Day 4-8 Outlook for Monday. Right now, it looks like the best dynamics with this system may stay off to our north and west, but it is something that we will watch. At this time, I don't plan to mention any strong or severe storms in the hazardous weather section, and will just mention the chance of SHRA/TSRA for Mon. and Tues. The GFS has the surface front passing through MOB sometime Tuesday afternoon. Looking at the ECMWF, looks like it delays the frontal passage until Tuesday Night/Wednesday morning. Will take a compromise of this solution, and expect the front to pass through Tuesday night. Therefore, will leave isolated PoP's in for Tuesday night, and will not go as low with minimum temps as the GFSX MOS.
ML
|
| Hazardous Weather |
Short Term (Tonight Through Sunday):
No hazardous weather is expected.Long Term (Monday through Tuesday):
There will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms on Monday and Tuesday with the approach of a cold front.
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|
Astronomical and Climatological Data |
Moon Phase
Last
Sunset 6:57 PM
Sunrise 6:37 AM |
| 09/15/06 | Normal
High | Record High | Normal
Low | Record Low | | Temperature |
87°F | 97°F (1972) | 68°F | 54°F (1985) |
| September | Normal | Wettest | Driest | | | Precipitation | 6.01 in. | 24.12 in. (1998) | 0.47 in. (1923) | |
| 09/15 in Mobile Area Weather History | | In 1960 a tropical system spawned an F0 tornado hit near Gosport in Clarke County, AL where a barn was destroyed, a home was damaged and several trees were uprooted. Also, in 2004 outer feeder bands from hurricane Ivan produced a tornado near Dixie in Escambia County, FL that moved into Baldwin County, AL near Ono Island and moved towards Josephine before dissipating. The tornado caused minor damage. Another tornado spawned by Ivan in 2004 produced an F0 tornado near Castleberry in Conecuh County, AL where it caused timber damage. (Data compiled from NWS Mobile, NWS Birmingham, newspaper articles, USA Archives and HurricaneCity.com) |
Wednesday Night Forecast
Forecast issued by Randy Bowers on 09/13/06 at 3:22:51 pm CDT
| Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast |
| Tonight |
Tomorrow |
Friday |
Saturday |
Sunday |
 |
|
|
|
|
|
87°F |
88°F |
90°F |
89°F |
| 70°F |
|
69°F |
67°F |
69°F |
| N 2-4 mph |
Lgt N |
E 2-4 mph |
SE 5-10 mph |
SE 5-10 mph |
| 20% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
10% |
| Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Detailed Forecast |
Tonight… Partly Cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms during the evening. Low 70. Winds north 2-4 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent.
Tomorrow... Mostly cloudy during the morning, becoming partly cloudy by afternoon. High 87. Winds north light N.
Thursday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 69. Winds north 2-4 mph.
Friday... Mostly cloudy in the morning, becoming partly to mostly sunny by afternoon. High 88. Winds east 2-4 mph.
Friday Night... Mostly clear. Low 67. Winds east 4-8 mph.
Saturday... Mostly sunny. High 90. Winds southeast 5-10 mph.
Saturday Night... Mostly clear. Low 69. Winds southeast 5-10 mph.
Sunday... Increasing clouds. High 89. Winds southeast 5-10 mph.
Sunday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low 70. Winds south 7-14 mph. Chance of rain is 30 percent.
|
| Technical Discussion |
|
.Short Term...
Running short on time so will be brief. First challenge is lingering clouds/moisture near/north of stationary surface boundary oriented E/W to our south. MOS seems to be a little quick with exiting low clouds. Have generally used time-height RH cross sections in NAM and GFS as guidance for cloud forecast in the near term. Consensus among models is that mid/high level moisture will clear tonight into tomorrow, but considerable low level moisture will remain. GFS lessens this low level mstr with time--more quickly than NAM. NGM lingers significant amounts of < H85 mstr through Friday morning. Given amount of dry air progged above H85, feel that low stratus/fog will mix out during the day on Thursday and Friday, especially Friday. So, will compromise by going with partial cloud cover both days, but will be sure to mention low clouds/fog both mornings. Given low level moisture/cloud forecast issues, temperatures likely to be challenging. Until we get a better handle, plan to go on the low side of MOS for highs/ FWC, and high side of MOS for lows/ MET. .Extended...
Unseasonably intense trough evolves over the northwest CONUS/Nrn Rockies late this week and becomes negatively tilted as it moves Ewrd toward the high plains. Very amplified and active pattern continues through the extended period and even beyond. Models try several times to close off heights at H25 over the weekend before close upper low finally takes hold over the Midwest/Great Lakes region early in the week, slowing progression of system overall. This leads to decreased confidence in timing and overall uncertainly when significant waves will impact our region. Current model consensus points toward a late Monday/Tuesday arrival of trough axis.
|
| Hazardous Weather |
Hazardous Weather Outlook (Wednesday through Sunday):
No hazardous weather is expected through the forecast period.
|
|
Astronomical and Climatological Data |
Moon Phase
Last
Sunset 7:00 PM
Sunrise 6:36 AM |
| 09/13/06 | Normal
High | Record High | Normal
Low | Record Low | | Temperature |
88°F | 96°F (1911) | 69°F | 52°F (1940) |
| September | Normal | Wettest | Driest | | | Precipitation | 6.01 in. | 24.12 in. (1998) | 0.47 in. (1923) | |
| 09/13 in Mobile Area Weather History | | In 1979 the outer feeder bands of hurricane Frederic produced a tornado near Grove Hill in Clarke County, AL where 1 mobile home was destoryed and many trees were downed. (Data compiled from NWS Mobile, NWS Birmingham, newspaper articles, USA Archives and HurricaneCity.com) |
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