Thursday Morning Forecast

Forecast issued by RB on 08/30/06 at 11:17:27 pm CDT

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Today	Friday	Saturday	Sunday	Monday
91°F	91°F	92°F	92°F	91°F
	70°F	70°F	71°F	72°F
NW 5-10 mph	NW 5-10 mph	W 2-4 mph	W 2-4 mph	Var 2-4 mph
10%	10%	10%	20%	20%

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Detailed Forecast

Today... Mostly sunny. High 91. Winds northwest around 5 to 10 mph Tonight... Clear. Low 70. Winds northwest 4-8 mph. Friday... Mostly sunny. High 91. Winds northwest 5-10 mph. Friday Night... Mostly clear. Low 70. Winds light and variable. Saturday... Partly cloudy. High 92. Winds west 2-4 mph. Saturday Night... Mostly clear. Low 71. Winds light and variable. Sunday... Partly cloudy. High 92. Winds variable around 5 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Sunday Night... Mostly clear. Low 72. Winds light and variable. Monday... Partly cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms. High 91. Winds variable around 5 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent.

Technical Discussion

.Synopsis… Majority of convection has moved east out of the area. Some convection has formed right along the cold front which is analyzed from near MGM to just west of MOB. Nocturnal cooling should result in decreased convective coverage overnight and by the beginning of first period area should be free of pcpn. Front continues to become more diffuse with time and models do not currently have a good handle on it. Model consensus is for this front to continue to become more diffuse as it becomes more oriented east to west along the coast. Deeper moisture shifts south of the boundary, just offshore. This pattern holds into the weekend before deeper moisture returns and gradient subsides as remains of Ernesto moves north away from the region. H5 analysis shows a long wave trough situated from the Great Lakes Region southwestward along the Mississippi Valley. General consensus is for the trough to make slow progress eastward over the next few days. Troughiness lingers invof our area through late week, though deamplification gradually continues with time. Meanwhile, a closed circulation evolves over the Ohio Valley and lingers through late week. .Short Term… Lack of decent source of low level convergence and deep moisture expected to keep PoPs below climo for the next few days, despite lingering trough. Also, northwesterly sfc flow on west side of Ernesto likely to limit northward and westward propagations of both sea breeze and bay breeze. As gradient lessens and deep moisture gradually returns, climo/near climo PoPs expected to return. Feel MOS high temperatures for period one may be too cool. Lower Td values likely to offset northwesterly post-frontal regime allowing boundary layer to warm slightly above what MOS shows. Will go just a couple of degrees warmer in first period which does line up well with going forecast. MOS does warm on Friday and the weekend and don’t feel the need to significantly alter at this time. May bring down overnight lows slightly from previous forecast as Td values expected to be a few degrees lower next few days. MOS lows may be a little too cool, however. Plan to split the difference between MOS and going forecast. .Long Term… Amplified and rather active pattern remains through the forecast period. Broad closed mid/upper low lingers over the Ohio Valley until this weekend when a rather potent shortwave approaches and absorbs this low. By early next week, models agree that a rather impressive mid/upper closed low will have evolved over the Midwest. This feature moves slowly eastward/southeastward before opening up and accelerating by mid-week. NAM and DGEX show a stronger/slower system while GFS indicates a slightly weaker and more progressive system. Compared to last night’s 00z run, GFS has actually come more inline with the NAM and DGEX solutions. Awaiting new 00z for better extended period confidence, but feel that this will result in a slower solution overall. Tend to side with NAM/DGEX and GFS trends and will therefore hold off best PoPs as I believe next decent chance of rain will come just beyond the forecast period –by mid/late week next week. As mid/upper low opens and progresses eastward, GFS shows unseasonably deep/amplified trough extending down into our region.

Hazardous Weather

Hazardous Weather Outlook (Thursday through Monday): No hazardous weather is expected through the forecast period.

Astronomical and Climatological Data
Moon Phase First Sunrise 6:27 AM Sunset 7:17 PM	08/30/06 Normal High Record High Normal Low Record Low Temperature 90°F 102°F (1954) 71°F 61°F (1992) August Normal Wettest Driest Precipitation 6.20 in. 15.22 in. (1881) 1.04 in. (1997)