Thursday Evening Forecast

Forecast issued by ML on 08/31/06 at 1:53:42 pm CDT

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Tonight	Tomorrow	Saturday	Sunday	Labor Day
	91°F	91°F	91°F	90°F
69°F		69°F	71°F	70°F
N 4-8 mph	NW 5-10 mph	W 4-8 mph	Var 4-8 mph	Var 4-8 mph
0%	0%	10%	20%	20%

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Detailed Forecast

Tonight… Mostly clear. Low 69. Winds north 4-8 mph. Tomorrow... Mostly sunny. High 91. Winds northwest 5-10 mph. Friday Night... Mostly clear. Low 69. Winds light and variable. Saturday... Partly cloudy. High 91. Winds west 4-8 mph. Saturday Night... Mostly clear. Low 71. Winds light and variable. Sunday... Partly cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms. High 91. Winds variable 4-8 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Sunday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 70. Winds light and variable. Labor Day... Partly cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms. High 90. Winds variable 4-8 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Monday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 70. Winds light and variable.

Technical Discussion

Synopsis: A cold front has pushed south and east of the area, ushering in a slightly cooler and drier airmass across the region. 18z T/Td at KMOB is 87/69, compared to temps in the low to mid 90's and dewpoints in the low to mid 70's at the same time yesterday. Tropical Storm Ernesto is nearing hurricane strength as it approaches the Carolina coast. Short Term (Tonight through Saturday): As noted above, slightly cooler and drier airmass is working it's way into the region. 12z sounding from KLIX shows a strong subsidence inversion around 800 mb, with a dry sounding from 800 mb to the top of the atmosphere. Backing winds also noted on the sounding, indicating a CAA pattern. PWAT value was only 1.11", when compared to PWAT values of at least 2" over the past few days. Slight CAA pattern noted at 850 mb will continue across the area tonight. This, along with being on the left side of Tropical Storm Ernesto, will lead to subsidence across the area. Clearing skies and light winds tonight should lead to radational cooling across the area. MOS numbers are a touch below previous forecasted lows, and will tweak lows down about a degree. Models indicate little if any chance of rain through the short term period with a dry airmass remaining in place across the region. Long Term (Sunday through Monday): Mostly dry weather will continue into the long term period. Kept the previous forecast's slight chance PoP's for Sunday and Monday. MOS guidance continues to show lower dewpoint values (upper 60's to lower 70's) into the latter half of the weekend and Labor Day, with highs hanging out around 90 degrees. GFS continues to trend toward NAM and DGEX with regards to the evolution of a mid to upper level closed low across the Midwest. Both GFS and NAM show a rather healthy looking trough across portions of the Midwest and into the eastern United States by the end of the period. Agree with the previous forecaster that the best chances of rain will not arrive until after the current forecast period (toward the middle part of next week). GFS continues to show a very amplified pattern next week, with a sharp trough extending down into our region by the middle of next week. -ML

Hazardous Weather

Hazardous Weather Outlook (Thursday through Monday): No hazardous weather is expected through the forecast period.

Astronomical and Climatological Data
Moon Phase First Sunset 7:16 PM Sunrise 6:28 AM	08/31/06 Normal High Record High Normal Low Record Low Temperature 90°F 99°F (1954) 71°F 61°F (1946) August Normal Wettest Driest Precipitation 6.20 in. 15.22 in. (1881) 1.04 in. (1997)

08/31 in Mobile Area Weather History

In 1950 hurricane Baker made landfall in the southwest Baldwin County, AL. The category 1 storm then quickly weakened as steering currents took it northwest away from the coast. (Data compiled from NWS Mobile, NWS Birmingham, newspaper articles, USA Archives and HurricaneCity.com)