Thursday Evening Forecast

Forecast issued by Justin Gibbs on 08/24/06 at 2:31:35 pm CDT

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Tonight	Tomorrow	Saturday	Sunday	Monday
	89°F	91°F	90°F	91°F
74°F		74°F	74°F	74°F
SW 2-4 mph	S 5-10 mph	S 5-10 mph	SSE 5-10 mph	SW 5-10 mph
20%	50%	30%	40%	50%

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Detailed Forecast

Tonight… Partly cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms. Low 74. Winds southwest 2-4 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Tomorrow... Partly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. High 89. Winds south 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 50 percent. Friday Night... Partly cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms. Low 74. Winds variable 2-4 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Saturday... Partly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. High 91. Winds south 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 30 percent. Saturday Night... Partly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low 74. Winds variable 2-4 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Sunday... Partly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. High 90. Winds south-southeast 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 40 percent. Sunday Night... Partly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low 74. Winds south 2-4 mph. Chance of rain is 30 percent. Monday... Partly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. High 91. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 50 percent. Monday Night... Partly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low 72. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 40 percent.

Technical Discussion

Synopsis: Quasistationary frontal boundary continues to meander across central AL and MS while WV imagery indicates a persistent mid/upper level low swirling over the north central Gulf. BFM ob and 88D imagery indicates seabreeze/baybreeze boundaries across the coastal regions of Mobile and Baldwin counties. A few showers are beginnign to fire and those trends will likely continue through the early afternoon with additional SHRA/TSRA across portions of the metro area. On the larger scale persistent upper level ridging continues across ERN TX. Forecast Discussion (Thursday through Monday): Short Term... With a rather weak synoptic scale pattern and the rather large distance between ourselves and the main forcing in the form of that frontal boundary expect to go mainly towards climo pops which run in the 40 50 range throughout the short term period. For tonight will leave a 20 POP in for any lingering dinural precip associated with the seabreeze boundaries...much akin to what we saw last night over the Bay and invof Gulf Shores. Tomorrow sees little change in the overall synoptic scale picture with very light southerly flow as the boundary to our north slowly retrogrades back to the north/washes out a bit more. GFS is very agressive with QPF with MEX MOS painting about a 75% 24 hour pop while the NAM is much less agressive keeping most of the QPF offshore associated with the mid/upper level swirl. Given weakness of the swirl and the distance form the coast prefer the dryer NAM based on today's actual wx, and the fact that tomorrow should be much like today, will go with 50% coverage pops for Friday. Friday evening will taper down to more climo favorable 20POP as dinural convection dies down. Long Term... By Saturday our flow weakens and beocmes a little more more westerly. Expecting a relative minima in seabreeze convergence as compared to the past few days, and NAM/GFS fcst soundings indicate the airmass will be driest on Saturday (although dry is a relative term here) Will taper pops to 40%, altough this is a somewhat low confidence move and later shifts will likely need to tweak as MOS guidance is a little useless as it continues its 70/80 POP rampage through the weekend. Sunday and Monday our sfc flow begins to pick up slightly as we see a slight shift in the synoptic pattern. GFS/ECMWF indicate a weak front moving in from the northwest, with FROPA late Monday. Weak upper level support may slow this frontal passage down, but for now will generally trust the going soln. As moisture increases ahead of the front we will see a slightly better chance at precip. Will go back up to 40% coverage pop for Sunday. Also carrying 30% pop into the evening as the frontal system begins to approach from the northwest, mainly surrounding timing concerns regarding frontal system. Monday will bump upward to 50POP for Monday as the frontal system moves through. If current solution verifies will need slightly higher pops than this as the event approaches but given uncertainty regarding frontal timing will leave it at 50% for now. Also carry 40's into the evening period for now to take a more broadbrush approach to FROPA. Temperatures from the going forecast and extended guidance are in good agreement so will make few changes. Tropically, we continue to watch Debby who continues to maintain its general heading in the far Eastern Atlantic with a slight increase in intensity. Our suspect area in the Lesser Antillies is rather convectively active this afternoon and expected to produce squally weather. SHIPS contiues to project a rather substantial intensification, but as previous forecaster mentioned several false storms have been generated this season. Latest recon indicates a closed low has been found NHC recently transmitted a DSAAT indicating they plan on initiating advisories in a 4 pm CDT advisory. Will continue to monitor the progress of this system.

Hazardous Weather

Hazardous Weather Outlook (Thursday through Monday): There is a daily chance of showers and thunderstorms across the Mobile area for the next several days. Each day will likely bring thunderstorms with gusty winds, deadly lightning, and very heavy rainfall. Rainfall rates with these storms will likely be heavy enough to create ponding of water on roadways, and some minor street, and urban flooding. In addition, there is a small chance a few of these storms wlil breifly become severe. The best chance for organized thunderstorms appears to be on Monday when a cool front will push into the area from the northwest.

Astronomical and Climatological Data
Moon Phase New Moon Sunset 7:24 PM Sunrise 6:24 AM	08/24/06 Normal High Record High Normal Low Record Low Temperature 90°F 100°F (1924) 71°F 60°F (1891) August Normal Wettest Driest Precipitation 6.20 in. 15.22 in. (1881) 1.04 in. (1997)