| Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Detailed Forecast |
Tonight… Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Low 74. Winds variable 2-4 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent.
Tomorrow... Partly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. High 89. Winds variable 2-4 mph. Chance of rain is 40 percent.
Sunday Night... Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Low 74. Winds variable 2-4 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent.
Monday... Partly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. High 90. Winds variable 2-4 mph. Chance of rain is 30 percent.
Monday Night... Partly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low 73. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 30 percent.
Tuesday... Partly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. High 91. Winds variable 4-8 mph. Chance of rain is 50 percent.
Tuesday Night... Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Low 74. Winds variable 2-4 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent.
Wednesday... Partly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. High 91. Winds southeast 10-15 mph. Chance of rain is 40 percent.
Wednesday Night... Watching Ernesto. Partly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Windy. Low 75. Winds southeast 15-30 mph. Chance of rain is 50 percent.
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| Technical Discussion |
Synopsis:
Right Now...
Convection is firing along the Gulf coast states near very diffuse remnant sfc boundary. Coverage is fairly scattered and the clusters are not particuarly intense at the moment, limited instability as indicated by morning KLIX and 0 hour RUC fcst KMOB soundings would tend to lend itself to why were not seeing much in the way of deep convection.
Synoptically we have a fairly weak pattern from sfc/700mb and a broad ridge takes over from there up centered in central Alabama covering most of the SECONUS."
Forecast Discussion (Saturday through Wednesday):
Short Term...
Flow at the sfc remains rather light and variable this afternoon. Rather shallow convection is expected to continue through the initial day period with some of it possibly becoming a bit more vigorous, especially back to the west where deeper low level moisture exists. Will continue the going 20 pop for remnant convection mainly before about 4z. Planning on sticking with going forecast for 2nd period high despite the slightly cooler day today and the downward trend in MOS consensus. Ridging looks to be modeled slightly too weak based on intialization and this afternoons apparent trends from RUC soundings.
Pcpn wise will go with current forecast philosophy on POPs sticking with a climo pop approach for seabreeze convection. Area wl remain on the wrn periphery of ML/UL ridge providing adequate moisture return throughout the next few days, however forcing at the surface will be quite weak through the remainder of the weekend so will just stick with the climo based solution with afternoon tstms very similar to what we've seen for the past several days. Will again linger a 20 pop for activity before 3-4z.
Long Term...
Pattern starts to slowly shift on Monday. NAM presents a slightly drier airmass on Monday and is the preferred model based on its performace over the past few days. Will drop to a 30 pop for Monday and later shifts may be able to trend it even further down as we go, however at this time do not want to yo-yo the forecast too much just start a trend downward.
We are going to be dealing with an approaching frontal system Monday/Tuesday it appears. A bit of discrepancy on the handling of the upper level s/wv and FROPA timing but for now will bump ops up on Mon even and Tuesday to allow for the system to move through. Will return to climo pops on Wednesday day period as we return to a rather weak synoptic flow in advance of our next feature.
Wednesday evening will begin to increase winds from the southeast in response to latest NHC 5-day projection of Ernesto which puts the storm in the north central GOM as a formidable hurricane. Will also bump pops up to 50% for the Thursday day period in the possibility of rain bands beginning to affect the area. This is likely a little quick but the increase sfc flow in response to the storm also would be responsible for more standard convergence and convection.
Regarding Ernesto, a rather unsettling trend in the morning guidance suite as NOGAPS/GFDL/UKMET as well as internal forecasting models all are in good agreement this morning in curving Ernesto back to the east in response to a rather stout upper level shortwave digging southeastward from the central CONUS. There are tremendous questions regarding the path of Ernesto, from the impact a retrograding ULL will have on the system in the WRN Carribean, to the timing of the S/WV expected to turn it to the east. For now will base the forecast largely on the guidance of the NHC and several changes will be required as the path is best refined. At this point it appears it will be late Sunday/Monday before at least a few of these questions begin to be answered (once the system moves beyond the ULL) Will mention the storm at the end of this afternoons HWO.
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| Hazardous Weather |
"Short Term (Saturday through Saturday):
A daily chance of showers and thunderstorms will persist for the next few days. As with any thunderstorm dangerous lightning and very heavy rainfall can be expected. A few storms may produce rainfall heavy enough to cause minor flooding of creeks and streams, and urban areas.Long Term (Sunday through Wednesday):
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Ernesto currently located 1470 miles southeast of Mobile. Official forecasts from the NHC indicate this storm may impact the north central Gulf coast region as a major hurricane Wednesday or Thursday. Major changes to the forecast may occur. Residents along the northcentral Gulf should closely monitor the latest official forecasts for updates."
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