Monday Morning Forecast

Forecast issued by Michael Leach on 08/28/06 at 12:26:37 am CDT

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Today	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday
91°F	91°F	90°F	91°F	91°F
	75°F	74°F	73°F	73°F
SW 5-10 mph	WSW 5-10 mph	W 5-10 mph	W 5-10 mph	W 5-10 mph
40%	30%	40%	20%	20%

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Detailed Forecast

Today... Partly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. High 91. Heat index values of 99 degrees are possible. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 40 percent. Tonight... Partly cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms. Low 75. Winds variable 2-4 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Tuesday... Partly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. High 91. Heat index values of 100 degrees are possible. Winds west-southwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 30 percent. Tuesday Night... Partly cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms. Low 74. Winds variable 2-4 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Wednesday... Partly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. High 90. Heat index values of 97 degrees are possible. Winds west 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 40 percent. Wednesday Night... Partly cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms. Low 73. Winds variable 2-4 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Thursday... Partly cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms. High 91. Winds west 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Thursday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 73. Winds variable 2-4 mph. Friday... Partly cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms. High 91. Winds west 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent.

Technical Discussion

Synopsis: Upper level ridging continues to dominate the region early this Monday morning. An area of high pressure was analyzed by HPC over the Carolinas. A frontal boundary strecthed from an area of low pressure over Pennsylvania through the Ohio Valley westward into Missouri and into Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. To our south, Tropical Storm Ernesto continued to spin in the Caribbean close to Haiti. Short Term (Monday through Wednesday): The main challenge in the short term is high temperatures and precip chances. 00z MET guidance came in generally wetter and cooler than 12z, while 00z MAV guidance came in a little drier and warmer than the 12 guidance. Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon Monday and Tuesday, with precip chances mainly dependant on the seabreeze (showers and storms near the coast in the morning hours, with a better chance inland during the afternoon hours). Generally split between the MET and MAV guidance for Monday and Tuesday, but leaned a little more toward the drier and warmer MAV guidance. On Wednesday, a cold front is expected to approach the area from the northwest. NAM/WRF paints a good chance of rain in association with the front, while GFS shows a much drier frontal passage. MET guidance ramps PoP's to 60% on Wednesday, while MAV guidance is only around 30%. Went closer to MAV guidance as cold fronts this time of the year tend to not be as active as fronts in the spring and fall. Long Term (Thursday through Friday): First of all, if the current track holds, Tropical Storm Ernesto should not have much of an impact on our area. After being upgraded to a hurricane Sunday morning, Ernesto struggled through much of the afternoon and evening Sunday with wind shear. Also, the circulation of Ernesto seemed to be negatively impacted by the mountainous terrain of Haiti (although the center of Ernesto was never over land). As of the 10 PM CDT advisory on Sunday, Ernesto was centered just west of Haiti, and about 115 miles southeast of the eastern tip of Cuba. Ernesto was moving to the northwest at around 7 MPH and had maximum sustained winds of 50 MPH. Models generally show Ernesto moving northwestward and then northward as the ridge of high pressure currently over the Southeast CONUS moves eastward and a shortwave trough approaches the system. This should allow Ernesto to move toward southern Florida. If this track holds, our area will not have much of an impact from Ernesto and will actually be on the subsident side of the tropical cyclone. Went with slight chance PoP's on Thursday and Friday as the cold front passage may serve to temporarily interrupt the daily seabreeze. Also, dewpoints should drop some behind the passage, so hopefully it won't feel as hot outside (even though high temperatures should still be around 90 degrees). Determining the wind direction was a little bit of a challenge. NAM/WRF showed Ernesto moving farther east than the GFS (NAM shows Ernesto in the open Atlantic, while GFS moves the cyclone over north Florida and into south Georgia), and the NAM showed mostly west to southwesterly winds, while the GFS showed mostly northwesterly winds. Decided to split the difference until we can get a better handle on the eventual track of Ernesto, and went with west winds. While we don't expect a major impact from Ernesto at this time, things can change. We urge you to keep up with the latest forecasts on Ernesto as the track is definitely subject to change over the next couple of days. -ML

Hazardous Weather

Hazardous Weather Outlook (Monday through Friday): Scattered showers and thunderstorms can be expected across the region, especially Monday through Wednesday. Although widespread severe weather is not expected at this time, any storm that develops will have the potential to produce heavy rainfall and frequent, dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning. Otherwise, no hazardous weather is expected through the period.

Astronomical and Climatological Data
Moon Phase Crescent Waxing Sunrise 6:26 AM Sunset 7:20 PM	08/28/06 Normal High Record High Normal Low Record Low Temperature 90°F 97°F (2000) 71°F 66°F (1992) August Normal Wettest Driest Precipitation 6.20 in. 15.22 in. (1881) 1.04 in. (1997)

08/28 in Mobile Area Weather History

In 2005 the outer feeder bands of hurricane Katrina spawned two F0 tornadoes in Mobile County, AL. The first tornado knocked down trees and power lines in Semmes. The second tornado downed trees and power lines near Alabama Port. Later, another F0 tornado was spawned east of Fort Morgan in Baldwin County, AL where it downed trees and power lines. (Data compiled from NWS Mobile, NWS Birmingham, newspaper articles, USA Archives and HurricaneCity.com)