Friday Evening Forecast

Forecast issued by Randy Bowers on 08/25/06 at 6:32:19 pm CDT

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Tonight	Tomorrow	Sunday	Monday	Tuesday
	89°F	89°F	91°F	91°F
74°F		74°F	74°F	74°F
Var 2-4 mph	Var 2-4 mph	Var 2-4 mph	Var 4-8 mph	Var 4-8 mph
20%	40%	40%	40%	40%

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Detailed Forecast

Tonight… Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Low 74. Winds variable 2-4 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Tomorrow... Partly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. High 89. Winds variable 2-4 mph. Chance of rain is 40 percent. Saturday Night... Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Low 74. Winds variable 2-4 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Sunday... Partly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. High 89. Winds variable 2-4 mph. Chance of rain is 40 percent. Sunday Night... Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Low 74. Winds variable 2-4 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Monday... Partly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. High 91. Winds variable 4-8 mph. Chance of rain is 40 percent. Monday Night... Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Low 74. Winds variable 2-4 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Tuesday... Partly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. High 91. Winds variable 4-8 mph. Chance of rain is 40 percent. Tuesday Night... Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Low 75. Winds variable 2-4 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent.

Technical Discussion

"Synopsis: .Current/Short Term... Weak surface boundary which has been present for the post few days continues to become more diffuse with time. Mid-afternoon sfc analysis shows this stationary boundary extending from just SW of TLH NWwrd to near GZH to near NMM. Westward extent is questionable based on surface analysis with lack of obs but a little more evident given enhanced cu on vis sat loop. WV loop earlier this morning indicated some drier air in the mid/upper levels working south across the region. Visual observations confirmed this as well. Although deeper moisture remains confined near the coast, most recent WV imagery showing some moistening further north in the mid/upper levels with only real noticeable dry air remaining north and west of a MGM to ABY line. Regardless, best convective coverage expected to remain near sea breeze and convective boundaries in zone of deepest moisture generally within about 40-50 miles of the coast this evening. Convection will be on the decrease with loss of diurnal heating and feel that ongoing forecast which carries 20 nocturnal PoP overnight will work out well per coordinating with forecaster from previous shift. .Long Term... Overall pattern features an elongated upper ridge across the southeastern and south-central CONUS. Models show little change in the near term. By the beginning of next week both models shift this ridge east slightly as relatively potent trough for this time of the year moves into the plains state. NAM seems to show a more intense system than GFS. GFS and ECMWF are quite progressive with this system and show the brunt of the energy passing north of the forecast area by mid-week. Timing will be a major factor for extended forecast considering the potential for tropical system to be situated in the central gulf by about the same time as the trough passes. GFS is rather aggressive with this trough in the extended. GFS actually closes off mid-level circulation over the Tennessee Valley and swings tail end of shortwave energy over the forecast area along with a sfc feature by mid/late week. Too many uncertainties at this time with tropics and medium range model disagreements to go above climo PoPs at this time. Generally followed MOS temperatures throughout the forecast period per the advice of previous shift. Overall, did not change going forecast much at all. Climo or near climo PoPs were spread throughout the forecast period. .Tropical Discussion... Coordination with tropical focal point painting a more ominous picture for gulf interests. Newest data indicates better agreement in models with a consensus more similar to previous runs of CMC. More confidence that TUTT low will retrograde Wwrd. Additionally, internal forecast model supports new thinking. NHC track takes this system into the central/east-central gulf by mid-week as a minimal hurricane. " Forecast Discussion (Friday through Tuesday):

Hazardous Weather

"Hazardous Weather Outlook (Friday through Tuesday): There is a daily chance of showers and thunderstorms across the Mobile area through late next week. Each day will bring scattered afternoon thunderstorms which will produce dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning and heavy downpouts. Rainfall rates with these storms will likely be heavy enough to create ponding of water on roadways, and some minor street and urban flooding. In addition, the most intense storms will be capable of strong wind gusts."

Astronomical and Climatological Data
Moon Phase New Moon Sunset 7:23 PM Sunrise 6:25 AM	08/25/06 Normal High Record High Normal Low Record Low Temperature 90°F 100°F (1938) 71°F 57°F (1891) August Normal Wettest Driest Precipitation 6.20 in. 15.22 in. (1881) 1.04 in. (1997)