Thursday Evening Forecast

Forecast issued by ML on 08/31/06 at 1:53:42 pm CDT

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Tonight	Tomorrow	Saturday	Sunday	Labor Day
	91°F	91°F	91°F	90°F
69°F		69°F	71°F	70°F
N 4-8 mph	NW 5-10 mph	W 4-8 mph	Var 4-8 mph	Var 4-8 mph
0%	0%	10%	20%	20%

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Detailed Forecast

Tonight… Mostly clear. Low 69. Winds north 4-8 mph. Tomorrow... Mostly sunny. High 91. Winds northwest 5-10 mph. Friday Night... Mostly clear. Low 69. Winds light and variable. Saturday... Partly cloudy. High 91. Winds west 4-8 mph. Saturday Night... Mostly clear. Low 71. Winds light and variable. Sunday... Partly cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms. High 91. Winds variable 4-8 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Sunday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 70. Winds light and variable. Labor Day... Partly cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms. High 90. Winds variable 4-8 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Monday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 70. Winds light and variable.

Technical Discussion

Synopsis: A cold front has pushed south and east of the area, ushering in a slightly cooler and drier airmass across the region. 18z T/Td at KMOB is 87/69, compared to temps in the low to mid 90's and dewpoints in the low to mid 70's at the same time yesterday. Tropical Storm Ernesto is nearing hurricane strength as it approaches the Carolina coast. Short Term (Tonight through Saturday): As noted above, slightly cooler and drier airmass is working it's way into the region. 12z sounding from KLIX shows a strong subsidence inversion around 800 mb, with a dry sounding from 800 mb to the top of the atmosphere. Backing winds also noted on the sounding, indicating a CAA pattern. PWAT value was only 1.11", when compared to PWAT values of at least 2" over the past few days. Slight CAA pattern noted at 850 mb will continue across the area tonight. This, along with being on the left side of Tropical Storm Ernesto, will lead to subsidence across the area. Clearing skies and light winds tonight should lead to radational cooling across the area. MOS numbers are a touch below previous forecasted lows, and will tweak lows down about a degree. Models indicate little if any chance of rain through the short term period with a dry airmass remaining in place across the region. Long Term (Sunday through Monday): Mostly dry weather will continue into the long term period. Kept the previous forecast's slight chance PoP's for Sunday and Monday. MOS guidance continues to show lower dewpoint values (upper 60's to lower 70's) into the latter half of the weekend and Labor Day, with highs hanging out around 90 degrees. GFS continues to trend toward NAM and DGEX with regards to the evolution of a mid to upper level closed low across the Midwest. Both GFS and NAM show a rather healthy looking trough across portions of the Midwest and into the eastern United States by the end of the period. Agree with the previous forecaster that the best chances of rain will not arrive until after the current forecast period (toward the middle part of next week). GFS continues to show a very amplified pattern next week, with a sharp trough extending down into our region by the middle of next week. -ML

Hazardous Weather

Hazardous Weather Outlook (Thursday through Monday): No hazardous weather is expected through the forecast period.

Astronomical and Climatological Data
Moon Phase First Sunset 7:16 PM Sunrise 6:28 AM	08/31/06 Normal High Record High Normal Low Record Low Temperature 90°F 99°F (1954) 71°F 61°F (1946) August Normal Wettest Driest Precipitation 6.20 in. 15.22 in. (1881) 1.04 in. (1997)

08/31 in Mobile Area Weather History

In 1950 hurricane Baker made landfall in the southwest Baldwin County, AL. The category 1 storm then quickly weakened as steering currents took it northwest away from the coast. (Data compiled from NWS Mobile, NWS Birmingham, newspaper articles, USA Archives and HurricaneCity.com)

Thursday Morning Forecast

Forecast issued by RB on 08/30/06 at 11:17:27 pm CDT

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Today	Friday	Saturday	Sunday	Monday
91°F	91°F	92°F	92°F	91°F
	70°F	70°F	71°F	72°F
NW 5-10 mph	NW 5-10 mph	W 2-4 mph	W 2-4 mph	Var 2-4 mph
10%	10%	10%	20%	20%

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Detailed Forecast

Today... Mostly sunny. High 91. Winds northwest around 5 to 10 mph Tonight... Clear. Low 70. Winds northwest 4-8 mph. Friday... Mostly sunny. High 91. Winds northwest 5-10 mph. Friday Night... Mostly clear. Low 70. Winds light and variable. Saturday... Partly cloudy. High 92. Winds west 2-4 mph. Saturday Night... Mostly clear. Low 71. Winds light and variable. Sunday... Partly cloudy. High 92. Winds variable around 5 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Sunday Night... Mostly clear. Low 72. Winds light and variable. Monday... Partly cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms. High 91. Winds variable around 5 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent.

Technical Discussion

.Synopsis… Majority of convection has moved east out of the area. Some convection has formed right along the cold front which is analyzed from near MGM to just west of MOB. Nocturnal cooling should result in decreased convective coverage overnight and by the beginning of first period area should be free of pcpn. Front continues to become more diffuse with time and models do not currently have a good handle on it. Model consensus is for this front to continue to become more diffuse as it becomes more oriented east to west along the coast. Deeper moisture shifts south of the boundary, just offshore. This pattern holds into the weekend before deeper moisture returns and gradient subsides as remains of Ernesto moves north away from the region. H5 analysis shows a long wave trough situated from the Great Lakes Region southwestward along the Mississippi Valley. General consensus is for the trough to make slow progress eastward over the next few days. Troughiness lingers invof our area through late week, though deamplification gradually continues with time. Meanwhile, a closed circulation evolves over the Ohio Valley and lingers through late week. .Short Term… Lack of decent source of low level convergence and deep moisture expected to keep PoPs below climo for the next few days, despite lingering trough. Also, northwesterly sfc flow on west side of Ernesto likely to limit northward and westward propagations of both sea breeze and bay breeze. As gradient lessens and deep moisture gradually returns, climo/near climo PoPs expected to return. Feel MOS high temperatures for period one may be too cool. Lower Td values likely to offset northwesterly post-frontal regime allowing boundary layer to warm slightly above what MOS shows. Will go just a couple of degrees warmer in first period which does line up well with going forecast. MOS does warm on Friday and the weekend and don’t feel the need to significantly alter at this time. May bring down overnight lows slightly from previous forecast as Td values expected to be a few degrees lower next few days. MOS lows may be a little too cool, however. Plan to split the difference between MOS and going forecast. .Long Term… Amplified and rather active pattern remains through the forecast period. Broad closed mid/upper low lingers over the Ohio Valley until this weekend when a rather potent shortwave approaches and absorbs this low. By early next week, models agree that a rather impressive mid/upper closed low will have evolved over the Midwest. This feature moves slowly eastward/southeastward before opening up and accelerating by mid-week. NAM and DGEX show a stronger/slower system while GFS indicates a slightly weaker and more progressive system. Compared to last night’s 00z run, GFS has actually come more inline with the NAM and DGEX solutions. Awaiting new 00z for better extended period confidence, but feel that this will result in a slower solution overall. Tend to side with NAM/DGEX and GFS trends and will therefore hold off best PoPs as I believe next decent chance of rain will come just beyond the forecast period –by mid/late week next week. As mid/upper low opens and progresses eastward, GFS shows unseasonably deep/amplified trough extending down into our region.

Hazardous Weather

Hazardous Weather Outlook (Thursday through Monday): No hazardous weather is expected through the forecast period.

Astronomical and Climatological Data
Moon Phase First Sunrise 6:27 AM Sunset 7:17 PM	08/30/06 Normal High Record High Normal Low Record Low Temperature 90°F 102°F (1954) 71°F 61°F (1992) August Normal Wettest Driest Precipitation 6.20 in. 15.22 in. (1881) 1.04 in. (1997)

Short Term Update

Severe thunderstorms have pushed to the east of the Mobile metropoltian area. Storms which produced hail and wind damage across portions of Mobile and Baldwin counties have moved east into Escambia county. Additional redevelopment remains possible through the next few hours as a rather unstable airmass remains in place ahead of a frontal boundary expected to clear the area tonight.

Special Weather Update

The National Weather Service has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Baldwin County until 630 pm. At 551 pm, weather radar indicated a line of severe thunderstorms capable of producing winds to 60 mph, continuous lightning, and very heavy rainfall. This line of storms was located from 4 miles west of Atmore, to 6 miles northeast of Loxley. This line of storms has a history of wind damage in Baldwin County, take cover now.

Special Weather Update

A Severe Thunderstorm Warning continues until 5:45 pm for Baldwin County. At 5:38 pm, weather radar indicated winds of over 60 mph propogating outward from the site of a downburst centered 5 miles southeast of Bay Minette. Additional wind gusts to 60 mph will remain possible outside of this area.

Special Weather Update

A Severe Thunderstorm Warning continues until 5:45 p.m. for Baldwin County. At 5:22 pm, weather radar conintued to indcate a severe thunderstorm just southeast of Bay Minette...moving east at 20 mph. This storm remains capable of damaging winds to 60 mph, and hail to the size of pennies. This storm also appears likely to produce downburst winds of 65-70 mph over localized areas under the storm. Take cover in a substantial shelter.

Special Weather Update

The National Weather Service has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Baldwin County until 5:45 pm. At 5:06 weather radar indicated a severe thunderstorm 5 miles west of Bay Minette. This storm is moving east at 20 mph. Damaging winds to 65 mph can be expected with this storm. Additionally brief instances of dime size hail may be possible. This storm will impact the city of Bay Minette over the next 15 minutes.

Special Weather Update

The Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Mobile County has expired. At 5:04 pm, weather radar indicated a strong thunderstorm moving into northern Mobile Bay. This storm produced a measured wind gust to 45 mph at Brookley Field at 5:00 p.m. Wind gusts to 55 mph, extremely heavy rain, and nearly continuous lightning can be expected as this storm affects the Mobile Bayway, and the communties of Fairhope and Daphne.

Special Weather Update

A Severe Thunderstorm Warning continues until 5 p.m. for Mobile County. At 448 pm, weather radar indicated a severe thunderstorm 7 miles southwest of downtown Mobile, or near the I-65/I-10 intersection. This storm remains capable of damaging winds to 60 mph. Downed trees, and hail to the size of nickels was reported in southwest Mobile county with this storm. Take cover in a substantial shelter.

Short Term Update

At 438 p.m. several clusters of strong to severe storms were developing across southwest Alabama. The strongest of these storms was located over southwestern Mobile County, this storm is capable of damaging winds to 60 mph, and has a history of downing trees. Other strong storms are located across northeastern Mobile and northern Baldwin counties. These storms will be capable of gusty winds to 50 mph nearly constant lightning, and very heavy rainfall. These storms will continue to affect along and north of the I-65 corridor in Baldwin County through 5:30 p.m. Additional thunderstorm development is expected this evening.

Special Weather Update

The National Weather Service has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Mobile County until 5:00 pm. At 4:32 weather radar indicated a severe thunderstorm 6 miles southwest of Tillmans Corner, or about 4 miles northeast of Grand Bay. This storm is moving east to northeast at 25 mph. Damaging winds to 65 mph can be expected with this storm. This storm downed trees in extreme southwest Mobile County at 4:25 p.m.

Tuesday Morning Forecast

Forecast issued by Justin Gibbs on 08/29/06 at 1:05:27 am CDT

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Today	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday
91°F	88°F	89°F	90°F	91°F
	74°F	72°F	72°F	74°F
Var 5-10 mph	Var 5-10 mph	Var 5-10 mph	Var 5-10 mph	Var 5-10 mph
30%	40%	20%	20%	20%

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Detailed Forecast

Today... Partly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. High 91. Winds variable 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 30 percent. Tonight... Variable cloudiness with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low 74. Winds west 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 40 percent. Wednesday... Partly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. High 88. Winds variable 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 40 percent. Wednesday Night... Mostly clear with isolated showers. Low 72. Winds variable 2-4 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Thursday... Partly cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms. High 89. Winds variable 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Thursday Night... Mostly clear. Low 72. Winds variable 5-10 mph. Friday... Partly cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms. High 90. Winds variable 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Friday Night... Mostly clear. Low 74. Winds variable 5-10 mph. Saturday... Partly cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms. High 91. Winds variable 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent.

Technical Discussion

Synopsis: Very light sfc flow exists across the region this morning. Sfc analysis indicates cold front draped from KPOF to KTKX to just west of KSHV at 05z. Aloft WV/RAOB indicates light ridging persists to our east while an unseasonably strong s/wv trof is evident throughout much of the column with the trof axis aross WRN KS and the TX/OK Panhandle. 12z KLIX/KTLH soundings show a fairly seasonable tropical airmass in place with just a touch of drier air working in around 500mb as it rides around the WRN periphery of the afforementioned UL ridge. Forecast Discussion (Tuesday through Saturday): Short Term... Tuesday through Wednesday evening prove to be the main focus of this forecast package. Main forecast concerns revolve around timing of sfc frontal boundary and the coverage of SHRA/TSRA as the system moves through. GFS/NAM/UKMET/ECMWF all are in acceptable agreement this morning on a ~6z Wednesday FROPA, which appears rather reasonable given the strength of the UL s/wv pushing the main cyclone. Upper air modeling however does show the wind fields aloft weakening through the first 24-36 hours and vort maps at 500mb show a rather substantial decrease in PVA as the s/wv moves across KY/TN and drapes further southwest. This however does appear to be a little bit too conservative given the strength and breadth of the system and the lack of any real stopping force as it barrels to the east. Very meager lapse rates have prevented much areal coverage in our convection over the past 48 hours and that will be factored into the coverage pops and the handling of first period. Will stick with the going 30 pops mainly for the afternoon period as the s/wv appraoaches. Despite the strength of the wave will not go above 40 pops for the Tuesday evening period as the most organized and widespread convection will likely be limited to the breif window of improved lapse rates (up from invof 5c attm) as the shortwave nears and passes, which will be well after peak heating (between 6-9z.) 700mb omega charts, and lower level moisture analysis indicates the frontal system will also likely be quite a bit more diffuse the further south you go, leading to the likelihood of increased convection across middle AL while we stay relatively dry. Day shift may need to tweak this however if the model consensus proves to not verify. Wednesday will leave the going 40 pop in to prepare for the possibility of the boundary stalling as it moves east as the GFS appears to suggest. This solution is somewhat discounted but if the system is slower than currently forecast (which has been the trend for the past few days) we could see some AM showers fire once heating begins. Long Term... Once the system clears gudiance points towards a split-flow regime aloft across the ERN CONUS and heights stay relatively low. This solution appears to be a bit unlikely given climo and will assume a slowed weakening shortwave shortly after it punts Ernesto from the ERN coast of Florida. MOS doesn't seem to reflect the slightly lower projected heights, which do appear reasonable, and has been a touch too warm for the past few days. Going MOS -1 to line up with going forecast for the extended period temperaures. Thursday the extended guidance gets a bit murky. ECMWF/GFS stall the s/wv a bit and GFS cuts off another powerful ULL into the central CONUS. This relatively new and climatologically obscene maneuver will be discounted for now and we will lean more towards climo which appears to be working fairly well below 300mb on the GFS run which builds another weak to moderate ridge over the extreme SERN CONUS which should warm us back up and return us to an airmass very similar to what we are in now. Drier air behind the trof will allow us to remove overnight pops for the Thursday night and Friday night period. For now will also go below climo pops and get in line with mos (as current forecast does) keeping a SLGHT CHC dinural pop in each day period as opposed to the 40/50% coverage we were seeing late last week. Ernesto... Latest NHC 5-day continues to indicate Ernesto will remain well east of the area, latest suite of guidance builds forecast in that solution. If the slightly slower trend continues amongst the guidance suite it is possible the storm may move slightly further eastward, however it is still expected the system will remain far enough east to not bring any noticable weather to the Mobile area.

Hazardous Weather

Short Term (Tuesday through Monday): There is a chance of thunderstorms today, tonight, and early Wednesday as a cold front appraoches from the northwest. Coverage of these thunderstorms is currently expected to be rather limited with maximum activity in the overnight and early morning hours Wednesday. Where storms occur expect gusty winds, dangerous lightning, and very heavy rainfall, with rainfall rates up to 3/4 of an inch per hour. Widespread severe weather is not anticipated at this time. Long Term (Tuesday through Saturday): No hazardous weather is expected.

Astronomical and Climatological Data
Moon Phase First Sunrise 6:26 AM Sunset 7:19 PM	08/29/06 Normal High Record High Normal Low Record Low Temperature 90°F 105°F (2000) 71°F 61°F (1992) August Normal Wettest Driest Precipitation 6.20 in. 15.22 in. (1881) 1.04 in. (1997)

08/29 in Mobile Area Weather History

In 2003 a large waterspout formed in Mobile Bay and moved northwest towards downtown Mobile in Mobile County, AL before weakening. Many workers in downtown high rise buildings had an excellent view of the funnel. Also, in 2005 powerful hurricane Katrina made landfall 90 miles west of Mobile on the west Mississippi coastline. Katrina, although a category 3 storm at landfall, produced an enormous storm surge that inundated areas from the southeast coast of Louisiana to downtown Mobile. Its broad circulation allowed hurricane-force winds to extend over 90 miles from the center, impacting portions of Mobile and Baldwin Counties in Alabama. The outer feeder bands produced an F0 tornado near Huxford in Escambia County, AL where it downed trees and power lines. (Data compiled from NWS Mobile, NWS Birmingham, newspaper articles, USA Archives and HurricaneCity.com)

Monday Morning Forecast

Forecast issued by Michael Leach on 08/28/06 at 12:26:37 am CDT

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Today	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday
91°F	91°F	90°F	91°F	91°F
	75°F	74°F	73°F	73°F
SW 5-10 mph	WSW 5-10 mph	W 5-10 mph	W 5-10 mph	W 5-10 mph
40%	30%	40%	20%	20%

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Detailed Forecast

Today... Partly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. High 91. Heat index values of 99 degrees are possible. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 40 percent. Tonight... Partly cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms. Low 75. Winds variable 2-4 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Tuesday... Partly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. High 91. Heat index values of 100 degrees are possible. Winds west-southwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 30 percent. Tuesday Night... Partly cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms. Low 74. Winds variable 2-4 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Wednesday... Partly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. High 90. Heat index values of 97 degrees are possible. Winds west 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 40 percent. Wednesday Night... Partly cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms. Low 73. Winds variable 2-4 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Thursday... Partly cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms. High 91. Winds west 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Thursday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 73. Winds variable 2-4 mph. Friday... Partly cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms. High 91. Winds west 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent.

Technical Discussion

Synopsis: Upper level ridging continues to dominate the region early this Monday morning. An area of high pressure was analyzed by HPC over the Carolinas. A frontal boundary strecthed from an area of low pressure over Pennsylvania through the Ohio Valley westward into Missouri and into Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. To our south, Tropical Storm Ernesto continued to spin in the Caribbean close to Haiti. Short Term (Monday through Wednesday): The main challenge in the short term is high temperatures and precip chances. 00z MET guidance came in generally wetter and cooler than 12z, while 00z MAV guidance came in a little drier and warmer than the 12 guidance. Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon Monday and Tuesday, with precip chances mainly dependant on the seabreeze (showers and storms near the coast in the morning hours, with a better chance inland during the afternoon hours). Generally split between the MET and MAV guidance for Monday and Tuesday, but leaned a little more toward the drier and warmer MAV guidance. On Wednesday, a cold front is expected to approach the area from the northwest. NAM/WRF paints a good chance of rain in association with the front, while GFS shows a much drier frontal passage. MET guidance ramps PoP's to 60% on Wednesday, while MAV guidance is only around 30%. Went closer to MAV guidance as cold fronts this time of the year tend to not be as active as fronts in the spring and fall. Long Term (Thursday through Friday): First of all, if the current track holds, Tropical Storm Ernesto should not have much of an impact on our area. After being upgraded to a hurricane Sunday morning, Ernesto struggled through much of the afternoon and evening Sunday with wind shear. Also, the circulation of Ernesto seemed to be negatively impacted by the mountainous terrain of Haiti (although the center of Ernesto was never over land). As of the 10 PM CDT advisory on Sunday, Ernesto was centered just west of Haiti, and about 115 miles southeast of the eastern tip of Cuba. Ernesto was moving to the northwest at around 7 MPH and had maximum sustained winds of 50 MPH. Models generally show Ernesto moving northwestward and then northward as the ridge of high pressure currently over the Southeast CONUS moves eastward and a shortwave trough approaches the system. This should allow Ernesto to move toward southern Florida. If this track holds, our area will not have much of an impact from Ernesto and will actually be on the subsident side of the tropical cyclone. Went with slight chance PoP's on Thursday and Friday as the cold front passage may serve to temporarily interrupt the daily seabreeze. Also, dewpoints should drop some behind the passage, so hopefully it won't feel as hot outside (even though high temperatures should still be around 90 degrees). Determining the wind direction was a little bit of a challenge. NAM/WRF showed Ernesto moving farther east than the GFS (NAM shows Ernesto in the open Atlantic, while GFS moves the cyclone over north Florida and into south Georgia), and the NAM showed mostly west to southwesterly winds, while the GFS showed mostly northwesterly winds. Decided to split the difference until we can get a better handle on the eventual track of Ernesto, and went with west winds. While we don't expect a major impact from Ernesto at this time, things can change. We urge you to keep up with the latest forecasts on Ernesto as the track is definitely subject to change over the next couple of days. -ML

Hazardous Weather

Hazardous Weather Outlook (Monday through Friday): Scattered showers and thunderstorms can be expected across the region, especially Monday through Wednesday. Although widespread severe weather is not expected at this time, any storm that develops will have the potential to produce heavy rainfall and frequent, dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning. Otherwise, no hazardous weather is expected through the period.

Astronomical and Climatological Data
Moon Phase Crescent Waxing Sunrise 6:26 AM Sunset 7:20 PM	08/28/06 Normal High Record High Normal Low Record Low Temperature 90°F 97°F (2000) 71°F 66°F (1992) August Normal Wettest Driest Precipitation 6.20 in. 15.22 in. (1881) 1.04 in. (1997)

08/28 in Mobile Area Weather History

In 2005 the outer feeder bands of hurricane Katrina spawned two F0 tornadoes in Mobile County, AL. The first tornado knocked down trees and power lines in Semmes. The second tornado downed trees and power lines near Alabama Port. Later, another F0 tornado was spawned east of Fort Morgan in Baldwin County, AL where it downed trees and power lines. (Data compiled from NWS Mobile, NWS Birmingham, newspaper articles, USA Archives and HurricaneCity.com)

Saturday Night Forecast

Forecast issued by Justin Gibbs on 08/26/06 at 1:39:52 pm CDT

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Tonight	Tomorrow	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday
	89°F	90°F	91°F	91°F
74°F		74°F	73°F	74°F
Var 2-4 mph	Var 2-4 mph	Var 2-4 mph	Var 4-8 mph	SE 10-15 mph
20%	40%	30%	50%	40%

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Detailed Forecast

Tonight… Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Low 74. Winds variable 2-4 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Tomorrow... Partly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. High 89. Winds variable 2-4 mph. Chance of rain is 40 percent. Sunday Night... Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Low 74. Winds variable 2-4 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Monday... Partly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. High 90. Winds variable 2-4 mph. Chance of rain is 30 percent. Monday Night... Partly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low 73. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 30 percent. Tuesday... Partly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. High 91. Winds variable 4-8 mph. Chance of rain is 50 percent. Tuesday Night... Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Low 74. Winds variable 2-4 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Wednesday... Partly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. High 91. Winds southeast 10-15 mph. Chance of rain is 40 percent. Wednesday Night... Watching Ernesto. Partly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Windy. Low 75. Winds southeast 15-30 mph. Chance of rain is 50 percent.

Technical Discussion

Synopsis: Right Now... Convection is firing along the Gulf coast states near very diffuse remnant sfc boundary. Coverage is fairly scattered and the clusters are not particuarly intense at the moment, limited instability as indicated by morning KLIX and 0 hour RUC fcst KMOB soundings would tend to lend itself to why were not seeing much in the way of deep convection. Synoptically we have a fairly weak pattern from sfc/700mb and a broad ridge takes over from there up centered in central Alabama covering most of the SECONUS. " Forecast Discussion (Saturday through Wednesday): Short Term... Flow at the sfc remains rather light and variable this afternoon. Rather shallow convection is expected to continue through the initial day period with some of it possibly becoming a bit more vigorous, especially back to the west where deeper low level moisture exists. Will continue the going 20 pop for remnant convection mainly before about 4z. Planning on sticking with going forecast for 2nd period high despite the slightly cooler day today and the downward trend in MOS consensus. Ridging looks to be modeled slightly too weak based on intialization and this afternoons apparent trends from RUC soundings. Pcpn wise will go with current forecast philosophy on POPs sticking with a climo pop approach for seabreeze convection. Area wl remain on the wrn periphery of ML/UL ridge providing adequate moisture return throughout the next few days, however forcing at the surface will be quite weak through the remainder of the weekend so will just stick with the climo based solution with afternoon tstms very similar to what we've seen for the past several days. Will again linger a 20 pop for activity before 3-4z. Long Term... Pattern starts to slowly shift on Monday. NAM presents a slightly drier airmass on Monday and is the preferred model based on its performace over the past few days. Will drop to a 30 pop for Monday and later shifts may be able to trend it even further down as we go, however at this time do not want to yo-yo the forecast too much just start a trend downward. We are going to be dealing with an approaching frontal system Monday/Tuesday it appears. A bit of discrepancy on the handling of the upper level s/wv and FROPA timing but for now will bump ops up on Mon even and Tuesday to allow for the system to move through. Will return to climo pops on Wednesday day period as we return to a rather weak synoptic flow in advance of our next feature. Wednesday evening will begin to increase winds from the southeast in response to latest NHC 5-day projection of Ernesto which puts the storm in the north central GOM as a formidable hurricane. Will also bump pops up to 50% for the Thursday day period in the possibility of rain bands beginning to affect the area. This is likely a little quick but the increase sfc flow in response to the storm also would be responsible for more standard convergence and convection. Regarding Ernesto, a rather unsettling trend in the morning guidance suite as NOGAPS/GFDL/UKMET as well as internal forecasting models all are in good agreement this morning in curving Ernesto back to the east in response to a rather stout upper level shortwave digging southeastward from the central CONUS. There are tremendous questions regarding the path of Ernesto, from the impact a retrograding ULL will have on the system in the WRN Carribean, to the timing of the S/WV expected to turn it to the east. For now will base the forecast largely on the guidance of the NHC and several changes will be required as the path is best refined. At this point it appears it will be late Sunday/Monday before at least a few of these questions begin to be answered (once the system moves beyond the ULL) Will mention the storm at the end of this afternoons HWO.

Hazardous Weather

"Short Term (Saturday through Saturday): A daily chance of showers and thunderstorms will persist for the next few days. As with any thunderstorm dangerous lightning and very heavy rainfall can be expected. A few storms may produce rainfall heavy enough to cause minor flooding of creeks and streams, and urban areas. Long Term (Sunday through Wednesday): The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Ernesto currently located 1470 miles southeast of Mobile. Official forecasts from the NHC indicate this storm may impact the north central Gulf coast region as a major hurricane Wednesday or Thursday. Major changes to the forecast may occur. Residents along the northcentral Gulf should closely monitor the latest official forecasts for updates."

Astronomical and Climatological Data
Moon Phase Crescent Waxing Sunset 7:22 PM Sunrise 6:25 AM	08/26/06 Normal High Record High Normal Low Record Low Temperature 90°F 100°F (2000) 71°F 64°F (1891) August Normal Wettest Driest Precipitation 6.20 in. 15.22 in. (1881) 1.04 in. (1997)

Friday Evening Forecast

Forecast issued by Randy Bowers on 08/25/06 at 6:32:19 pm CDT

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Tonight	Tomorrow	Sunday	Monday	Tuesday
	89°F	89°F	91°F	91°F
74°F		74°F	74°F	74°F
Var 2-4 mph	Var 2-4 mph	Var 2-4 mph	Var 4-8 mph	Var 4-8 mph
20%	40%	40%	40%	40%

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Detailed Forecast

Tonight… Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Low 74. Winds variable 2-4 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Tomorrow... Partly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. High 89. Winds variable 2-4 mph. Chance of rain is 40 percent. Saturday Night... Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Low 74. Winds variable 2-4 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Sunday... Partly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. High 89. Winds variable 2-4 mph. Chance of rain is 40 percent. Sunday Night... Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Low 74. Winds variable 2-4 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Monday... Partly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. High 91. Winds variable 4-8 mph. Chance of rain is 40 percent. Monday Night... Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Low 74. Winds variable 2-4 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Tuesday... Partly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. High 91. Winds variable 4-8 mph. Chance of rain is 40 percent. Tuesday Night... Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Low 75. Winds variable 2-4 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent.

Technical Discussion

"Synopsis: .Current/Short Term... Weak surface boundary which has been present for the post few days continues to become more diffuse with time. Mid-afternoon sfc analysis shows this stationary boundary extending from just SW of TLH NWwrd to near GZH to near NMM. Westward extent is questionable based on surface analysis with lack of obs but a little more evident given enhanced cu on vis sat loop. WV loop earlier this morning indicated some drier air in the mid/upper levels working south across the region. Visual observations confirmed this as well. Although deeper moisture remains confined near the coast, most recent WV imagery showing some moistening further north in the mid/upper levels with only real noticeable dry air remaining north and west of a MGM to ABY line. Regardless, best convective coverage expected to remain near sea breeze and convective boundaries in zone of deepest moisture generally within about 40-50 miles of the coast this evening. Convection will be on the decrease with loss of diurnal heating and feel that ongoing forecast which carries 20 nocturnal PoP overnight will work out well per coordinating with forecaster from previous shift. .Long Term... Overall pattern features an elongated upper ridge across the southeastern and south-central CONUS. Models show little change in the near term. By the beginning of next week both models shift this ridge east slightly as relatively potent trough for this time of the year moves into the plains state. NAM seems to show a more intense system than GFS. GFS and ECMWF are quite progressive with this system and show the brunt of the energy passing north of the forecast area by mid-week. Timing will be a major factor for extended forecast considering the potential for tropical system to be situated in the central gulf by about the same time as the trough passes. GFS is rather aggressive with this trough in the extended. GFS actually closes off mid-level circulation over the Tennessee Valley and swings tail end of shortwave energy over the forecast area along with a sfc feature by mid/late week. Too many uncertainties at this time with tropics and medium range model disagreements to go above climo PoPs at this time. Generally followed MOS temperatures throughout the forecast period per the advice of previous shift. Overall, did not change going forecast much at all. Climo or near climo PoPs were spread throughout the forecast period. .Tropical Discussion... Coordination with tropical focal point painting a more ominous picture for gulf interests. Newest data indicates better agreement in models with a consensus more similar to previous runs of CMC. More confidence that TUTT low will retrograde Wwrd. Additionally, internal forecast model supports new thinking. NHC track takes this system into the central/east-central gulf by mid-week as a minimal hurricane. " Forecast Discussion (Friday through Tuesday):

Hazardous Weather

"Hazardous Weather Outlook (Friday through Tuesday): There is a daily chance of showers and thunderstorms across the Mobile area through late next week. Each day will bring scattered afternoon thunderstorms which will produce dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning and heavy downpouts. Rainfall rates with these storms will likely be heavy enough to create ponding of water on roadways, and some minor street and urban flooding. In addition, the most intense storms will be capable of strong wind gusts."

Astronomical and Climatological Data
Moon Phase New Moon Sunset 7:23 PM Sunrise 6:25 AM	08/25/06 Normal High Record High Normal Low Record Low Temperature 90°F 100°F (1938) 71°F 57°F (1891) August Normal Wettest Driest Precipitation 6.20 in. 15.22 in. (1881) 1.04 in. (1997)

Thursday Evening Forecast

Forecast issued by Justin Gibbs on 08/24/06 at 2:31:35 pm CDT

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Tonight	Tomorrow	Saturday	Sunday	Monday
	89°F	91°F	90°F	91°F
74°F		74°F	74°F	74°F
SW 2-4 mph	S 5-10 mph	S 5-10 mph	SSE 5-10 mph	SW 5-10 mph
20%	50%	30%	40%	50%

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Detailed Forecast

Tonight… Partly cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms. Low 74. Winds southwest 2-4 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Tomorrow... Partly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. High 89. Winds south 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 50 percent. Friday Night... Partly cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms. Low 74. Winds variable 2-4 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Saturday... Partly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. High 91. Winds south 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 30 percent. Saturday Night... Partly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low 74. Winds variable 2-4 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Sunday... Partly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. High 90. Winds south-southeast 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 40 percent. Sunday Night... Partly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low 74. Winds south 2-4 mph. Chance of rain is 30 percent. Monday... Partly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. High 91. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 50 percent. Monday Night... Partly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low 72. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 40 percent.

Technical Discussion

Synopsis: Quasistationary frontal boundary continues to meander across central AL and MS while WV imagery indicates a persistent mid/upper level low swirling over the north central Gulf. BFM ob and 88D imagery indicates seabreeze/baybreeze boundaries across the coastal regions of Mobile and Baldwin counties. A few showers are beginnign to fire and those trends will likely continue through the early afternoon with additional SHRA/TSRA across portions of the metro area. On the larger scale persistent upper level ridging continues across ERN TX. Forecast Discussion (Thursday through Monday): Short Term... With a rather weak synoptic scale pattern and the rather large distance between ourselves and the main forcing in the form of that frontal boundary expect to go mainly towards climo pops which run in the 40 50 range throughout the short term period. For tonight will leave a 20 POP in for any lingering dinural precip associated with the seabreeze boundaries...much akin to what we saw last night over the Bay and invof Gulf Shores. Tomorrow sees little change in the overall synoptic scale picture with very light southerly flow as the boundary to our north slowly retrogrades back to the north/washes out a bit more. GFS is very agressive with QPF with MEX MOS painting about a 75% 24 hour pop while the NAM is much less agressive keeping most of the QPF offshore associated with the mid/upper level swirl. Given weakness of the swirl and the distance form the coast prefer the dryer NAM based on today's actual wx, and the fact that tomorrow should be much like today, will go with 50% coverage pops for Friday. Friday evening will taper down to more climo favorable 20POP as dinural convection dies down. Long Term... By Saturday our flow weakens and beocmes a little more more westerly. Expecting a relative minima in seabreeze convergence as compared to the past few days, and NAM/GFS fcst soundings indicate the airmass will be driest on Saturday (although dry is a relative term here) Will taper pops to 40%, altough this is a somewhat low confidence move and later shifts will likely need to tweak as MOS guidance is a little useless as it continues its 70/80 POP rampage through the weekend. Sunday and Monday our sfc flow begins to pick up slightly as we see a slight shift in the synoptic pattern. GFS/ECMWF indicate a weak front moving in from the northwest, with FROPA late Monday. Weak upper level support may slow this frontal passage down, but for now will generally trust the going soln. As moisture increases ahead of the front we will see a slightly better chance at precip. Will go back up to 40% coverage pop for Sunday. Also carrying 30% pop into the evening as the frontal system begins to approach from the northwest, mainly surrounding timing concerns regarding frontal system. Monday will bump upward to 50POP for Monday as the frontal system moves through. If current solution verifies will need slightly higher pops than this as the event approaches but given uncertainty regarding frontal timing will leave it at 50% for now. Also carry 40's into the evening period for now to take a more broadbrush approach to FROPA. Temperatures from the going forecast and extended guidance are in good agreement so will make few changes. Tropically, we continue to watch Debby who continues to maintain its general heading in the far Eastern Atlantic with a slight increase in intensity. Our suspect area in the Lesser Antillies is rather convectively active this afternoon and expected to produce squally weather. SHIPS contiues to project a rather substantial intensification, but as previous forecaster mentioned several false storms have been generated this season. Latest recon indicates a closed low has been found NHC recently transmitted a DSAAT indicating they plan on initiating advisories in a 4 pm CDT advisory. Will continue to monitor the progress of this system.

Hazardous Weather

Hazardous Weather Outlook (Thursday through Monday): There is a daily chance of showers and thunderstorms across the Mobile area for the next several days. Each day will likely bring thunderstorms with gusty winds, deadly lightning, and very heavy rainfall. Rainfall rates with these storms will likely be heavy enough to create ponding of water on roadways, and some minor street, and urban flooding. In addition, there is a small chance a few of these storms wlil breifly become severe. The best chance for organized thunderstorms appears to be on Monday when a cool front will push into the area from the northwest.

Astronomical and Climatological Data
Moon Phase New Moon Sunset 7:24 PM Sunrise 6:24 AM	08/24/06 Normal High Record High Normal Low Record Low Temperature 90°F 100°F (1924) 71°F 60°F (1891) August Normal Wettest Driest Precipitation 6.20 in. 15.22 in. (1881) 1.04 in. (1997)

Mobile Weather Resumes Soon!

To our visitors,

Thanks for being patient. Summer is coming to an end and the entire Mobile Weather staff will be returning to our normal academic routine in Mobile within a couple of weeks. Plans are to resume forecasting on a regular basis on or before the 28th of August. Forecaster and Information Technology Focal Point, Jason Holmes, has made many improvements to our forecast input software. The end result for our customers will be a more easy-on-the-eye layout of the forecast--allowing you to more quickly get the weather information that you need. These new improvements will also allow us to convey more information to our customers than was previously possible.

Thanks for your continued interest in our forecasts. We remain committed to providing you with the most accurate and complete weather forecasts and weather information that we possibly can.

Sincerely,

Randy Bowers
Junior Meteorology Student,
University of South Alabama