Short Term Update

The National Weather Service has issued a Tornado Watch effective until 9 p.m. for the Mobile metropolitan area, and adjacent coastal waters, including Mobile Bay.

A large complex of strong to severe thunderstorms currently located over Central Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana will push southeastward through the evening. As the system moves south it will interact with a very warm, moist, and unstable airmass. Severe thunderstorms will be possible this evening with isolated tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail the main threat. Waterspouts and wind gusts over 50kts will be possible on coastal waters near the Mobile area.

The best chance for severe weather will be tonight from roughly 7:30 p.m. through 11 p.m. Residents in the watch area should remain alert to rapidly changing weather conditions and be prepared to take action should severe weather be observed or warnings be issued.

Monday Forecast

Forecast Issued by Randy Bowers on 05/01/2006 at 12:05:17 am CT

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Today	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday
83°F	85°F	86°F	86°F	84°F
	62°F	63°F	65°F	66°F
SE 5-10 mph	S 5 mph	SW 5-10 mph	SW 5-10 mph	SW 10-15 mph
0%	0%	20%	20%	50%

Detailed Forecast

Today... Partly cloudy. High around 83. Winds southeast 5-10 mph. Monday Night... Partly cloudy. Low around 62. Winds southeast at around 5 mph. Tuesday... Partly cloudy. High around 85. Winds south at around 5 mph. Tuesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low arond 63. Light south wind. Wednesday... Partly cloudy with isolated showers. High around 86. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Wednesday Night... Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Low around 65. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Thursday... Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Otherwise, partly cloudy. High around 86. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Thursday Night... A chance of thunderstorms. Otherwise, mostly cloudy. Low around 66. Winds southwest 10-15 mph. Chance of rain is 40 percent. Friday... A good chance of thunderstorms. Otherwise, mostly cloudy. High around 84. Winds southwest 10-15 mph. Chance of rain is 50 percent.

Technical Discussion

All but a few showers have exited Mobile and Baldwin Counties. Remaining showers were over northeast Baldwin and near Spanish Fort, with a few also just offshore from Orange Beach. Upper trough weakens and shift further northeast tomorrow with less amplified upper pattern becoming established in the short term. Meanwhile ridge at H85 builds stronger and dominates into mid-week. This will result in a rather uneventful week weather-wise for the forecast area. The next system of significance to impact the forecast area will be later in the week as a shortwave strengthens over the plains. 00z GFS is quite different than the 12z run, showing a much more amplified system. Going forecast has a slight PoP for Wednesday and will continue with this as ridge begins to break down by that time. Will also carry slight PoP into Thursday as ridge continues breaks down with the approach of plains system. Beginning on Friday, have introduced chance PoPs with the passage of this system expected late Friday into Saturday. Only changes to the going forecast are to increase temperatures slightly in the extended to address warmer MOS numbers and slight adjustments to wind forecast. No other changes needed.

Hazardous Weather

No hazardous weather is expected through the forecast period.

Astronomical and Climatological Data
Mobile, Alabama Sunrise 6:09 AM Sunset 7:31 PM	05/01/06 Normal High Record High Normal Low Record Low Temperature 81°F 91°F (1987) 58°F 46°F (1999) May Normal Wettest Driest Precipitation 6.10 in. 15.08 in. (1980) 0.22 in. (1914)