Tuesday Morning Forecast

Forecast Issued by Justin Gibbs on 04/18/2006 at 1:42:04 am CT

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Today	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday
90°F	89°F	87°F	87°F	85°F
	69°F	68°F	67°F	66°F
SW 5-10 mph	SW 5-10 mph	SW 5-10 mph	SW 10-20 mph	S 10-20 mph
0%	0%	10%	10%	30%

Detailed Forecast

Today... Partly cloudy. High 90. . Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Tuesday Night... Mostly clear. Low 69. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Wednesday... Mostly sunny. High 89. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Wednesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 68. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Thursday... Partly cloudy. High 87. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 10 percent. Thursday Night... Mostly clear. Low 67. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Friday... Partly cloudy. High 87. Winds southwest 10-20 mph. Chance of rain is 10 percent. Friday Night...Partly cloudy with a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Low 66. Winds southwest 5 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Saturday... Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. High 85. Winds south 10-20 mph.

Technical Discussion

"Forecast Discussion (Tuesday through Saturday): Right Now... Region lies to the south of a frontal boundary analyzed across NRN MS/NRN AL/NRN GA this hour. Our primary sfc influence comes from a ridge centered over Cuba. Ridging exists from 700/300mb with an axis running roughly across MO/AR/LA. Wv imagery indicates a bit of moisture to our west pushing eastward. KLIX/KJAN/KCRP 0z soundings reveal this layer of moisture runs from 750-900mb roughly. Short Term... Narrow low level moisture is the main focus of this forecast package. MOS again is calling for clear skies...but with substantial sfc heating...and what appears to be a very thin band of moisture that isnt particuarly well handled in guidance will go Partly cloudy to allow for a 3-4 p.m. timeframe where we may sneak towards the 5/10--6/10 coverage range...much as we did today. Temperatures are a bit of a bear...we managed to break a record high Monday at 89 degrees...and tomorrow leans towards much of the same. We will start the day with rather substantial sun coverage and this should persist until we get very near another record high mark. Seabreeze played a bit of a role today as a boundary shot north around 2 p.m...with similar conditions today this will again be an issue. Will go with going forecast which agrees well with MOS calling for another record breaking day with a high of 90 degrees. This however likely will not be achieved immediately south of the city where a seabreeze is likely to set up by early afternoon. We stay mild in the overnight...will bump going high up 1 degree to match today's slightly warmer than MOS overnight low. We remain zonal aloft with light southwesterly sfc flow through Wednesday where another substantially warm day appears likely. Long Term... Beyond that ridge really begins to set up shop at all mandatory levels ahead of an approaching shortwave trof. Weak pertubation builds over the Lower MS VLY Thursday and pushes eastward while weakening. Guidance is indicating a bit of QPF with this event with an slight increase in deep moisture. Very little if any sfc translation remains with this event by the time it nears the MOB area...and with an increasingly strong ridge to our southeast...it appears rather unlikely we will get in on this activity. Instability values with rather meager lapse rates are marginal at best...and upper level support is for the most part lacking. Will leave the going 10 pop in however in response to marginal isentropic ascent indicated on 300k NAM plot. Feel later shifts can likely safely remove this but for now feel it most prudent to stay the course given a bit of questions regarding the strength and timingof the s/wv responsible. Friday/Saturday continue to watch approaching sfc cylcone and frontal boundary. Will continue to play the slow down game with this feature...will taper down the Friday period pops and provide most pcpn emphasis on the Saturday period. Low/Mid level windfields are not overly supportive of a full frontal passage...additionally strong ridging remains intact ahead of this system. At very least the system will have a lot to work against as it makes an EWD trek. Later shifts may need to slow the system down even further...but for now it appears we will see a roughly 0z Sunday frontal passage...with prefrontal convection throughout the day (Very similar to last week) however at the current time it appears the robustness of this convection may be rather limited as instability parameters are not as favorable for severe convection as they were during last Saturday's event. However, the potential at this point still exists for the possibility of strong thunderstorms...and possibly an isolated severe storm. Will not mention in HWO this package but later shifts may need to update to highlight SVR ptnl. "

Hazardous Weather

No hazardous weather is expected through the forecast period.