Sunday Night Forecast

Forecast Issued by Randy Bowers on 04/23/2006 at 2:37:56 pm CT

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Tonight	Tomorrow	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday
	86°F	85°F	81°F	79°F
61°F		64°F	65°F	53°F
S 5 mph	S 5-10 mph	SW 5-10 mph	SW 5-10 mph	N 5-10 mph
0%	0%	20%	50%	0%

Detailed Forecast

Tonight… Becoming partly cloudy. Low 61. Winds south 5 mph. Tomorrow... Partly cloudy. High 86. Winds south 5-10 mph. Monday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 64. Winds south 5 mph. Tuesday... Partly cloudy with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly late. High 85. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Tuesday Night... A chance of rain and thunderstorms. Otherwise, mostly cloudy. Low 65. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 50 percent. Wednesday... A chance of rain and thunderstorms. Otherwise, mostly cloudy. High 81. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 50 percent. Wednesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 53. Winds northwest 5-10 mph. Thursday... Partly cloudy. High 79. Winds north 5-10 mph. Thursday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 52. Winds north 5-10 mph.

Technical Discussion

Surface ridge centered over our area with light winds and little cloud cover this afternoon. This ridge will slowly shift east early in the week with southerly flow beginning as early as late tonight, continuing ahead of next system by mid-week. Little concerns for the short term portion of the forecast with the exception of overnight temperatures tonight. With ridge axis overhead shifting just east of us by morning, winds will remain light and am doubtful that surface Td values will rise as much as MOS indicate overnight. Therefore, have undercut MOS lows by a degree or two. Will remain consistent with previously forecasted temperatures into next week with MOS remaining very similar to what we still have going. Mid-level shortwave and cold front will approach on Tuesday. Some differences in models with regard to strength of this system makes extended portion somewhat challenging. There doesn't seem to be a major discrepancy in timing with fropa, though models are quicker its progression. To account for this, have introduced a slight PoP for late Tuesday and high chance for Tuesday night. SWODY3 from SPC indicates a slight risk for severe. Will let later shifts evaluate subsequent model runs for possible issuance of HWO. Weak lapse rates resulting in marginal instability as well as weak deep layer shear point toward an isolated marginal severe event, at best. As previously mentioned, some differences in strength of cold front exist between models with GFS being the most aggressive, as is typical. Regardless, cooler/drier air mass progged for late week and will continue to follow MEX values for post-frontal temperatures. Return flow reestablishes into the weekend in advance of next wave and next precipitation event likely to be Sunday/Monday per medium range consensus.

Hazardous Weather

No hazardous weather is expected through the forecast period.

Astronomical and Climatological Data
Moon Phase Half Full (Waning) Sunset 7:26 PM Sunrise 6:16 AM	04/24/06 Normal High Record High Normal Low Record Low Temperature 80°F 91°F (1999) 57°F 43°F (1884) April Normal Wettest Driest Precipitation 5.06 in. 17.69 in. (1955) 0.08 in. (1999)