Sunday Night Forecast

Forecast Issued by Randy Bowers on 04/16/2006 at 3:11:38 pm CT

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Tonight	Tomorrow	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday
	85°F	88°F	87°F	85°F
65°F		66°F	68°F	68°F
SW 5 mph	SW 5-10 mph	SW 5-10 mph	SW 5-10 mph	S 5-10 mph
0%	0%	0%	0%	10%

Detailed Forecast

Tonight… Partly cloudy. Low 65. Winds southwest 5 mph. Tomorrow... Partly cloudy. High 85. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Monday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 66. Winds southwest 5 mph. Tuesday... Partly cloudy. Near record or record high temperatures. High 88. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Tuesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 68. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Wednesday... Partly cloudy. High 87. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Wednesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 68. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Thursday... Partly cloudy. High 85. Winds south 5-10 mph. Thursday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 66. Winds variable 5-10 mph.

Technical Discussion

CU field has formed parallel to the coast and inland to northern portions of Mobile and Baldwin Counties this afternoon. Temperatures have risen into the lower 80s and should rise another degree or two. Similar conditions anticipated into next week with little or no changes planned to going forecast package. Shortwave passing to the north today and will exit the east coast tomorrow. No impact is expected on our weather from this departing system. Behind departing wave, upper ridge strengthens into mid-week across the central gulf coast region as yet another trough takes shape over the northern plains by mid-week. Record high temperature looks to be achieved on Tuesday with all MOS exceeding or at least tying the old record value of 88. Beyond Tuesday, upper ridge begins to break down somewhat as the next system over the plains progresses eastward. ECMWF and GFS' motion of this next system may be too quick. GFS shows a cold front making it as far south as Mobile late Wednesday and generates some QPF along it. Feel this is way too aggressive and will look for better consistency or model agreement to back this up before introducing PoPs into the extended. Both models show trough evolving into a closed upper low which would favor the idea of a slower progression eastward. DGEX is nearly 24 hours slower than other medium range models with this system and prefer its solution. We will likely see other medium range models trend slower with this system in upcoming runs and come more inline with DGEX. Given these uncertainties, will leave the extended portion dry for now. This should be better resolved in later runs and an introduction of PoPs into mid/late week portion of the extended may be needed by later shifts. Regardless, some hope is seen by the weekend as a slightly more amplified pattern evolves and northwesterly flow aloft becomes established on the back side of the aforementioned departing system. Weak perturbations in this northwesterly flow aloft are seen in the medium range models and may help alleviate the dry conditions.

Hazardous Weather

No hazardous weather is expected through the forecast period.