Saturday Night Forecast

Forecast Issued by Randy Bowers/Daniel Lamb on 04/22/2006 at 5:28:42 pm CT

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Tonight	Tomorrow	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday
	86°F	86°F	85°F	80°F
59°F		61°F	67°F	65°F
N 5 mph	VAR 5 mph	S 5-10 mph	SW 5-10 mph	SW 5-10 mph
0%	0%	0%	0%	20%

Detailed Forecast

Tonight… Mostly clear with areas of fog forming. Low 59. Winds north 5 mph. Tomorrow... Mostly sunny. High 86. Winds variable 5 mph. Sunday Night... Mostly clear. Low 61. Winds variable 5 mph. Monday... Partly cloudy. High 86. Winds south 5-10 mph. Monday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 67. Winds south 3-8 mph. Tuesday... Partly cloudy. High 85. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Tuesday Night... Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Low 65. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Wednesday... Isolated showers and thunderstorms. High 80. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Wednesday Night... Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Low 62. Winds west 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent.

Technical Discussion

Short Term (Saturday through Sunday Night): Early this afternoon, last night’s convection had shifted well east with the passage of mid/upper trough. Drier and cooler air was present across our region in the wake of this system. KLIX 12z sounding indicates very dry air above H7 and this was also noted by visual observations from Mobile with deep blue sky. Also, flat CU field present with diurnal heating. CU will decrease rapidly with loss of insolation by this evening and will go with clear skies overnight. One concern will be fog formation overnight with surface ridge in close proximity and moist ground as a result of pervious day’s rainfall. Additionally, low level moisture is still present with Td values ranging from the upper 50s to the lower 60s along the central gulf coast. Will add mention of overnight fog into the forecast. Upper ridge will build into the area temporarily later this weekend before it begins to break down by late Sunday. Until then, rather uneventful weather, with above normal temperatures and dry conditions lasting through the short term portion of this forecast package. Generally stuck close to MOS high temperatures. For lows, believe MOS is a little cool for tonight’s low temperatures and have adjusted up a degree or two given lingering low level moisture. MOS may be slightly too warm for Sunday night lows since low level moisture thins out some and light winds expected resulting from the presence of surface ridge. Therefore, chose to go a degree or two under MOS. -RB Long Term (Monday through Wednesday): With high pressure east of the area Monday and return flow well established, we should fairly quickly re-moisten the lower levels of the atmosphere and continue to rebound temp-wise (not that we fell off that far behind this morning's fropa). Next front should be approaching the Southeastern US by Tuesday. Some model disagreement on when this front will reach us. The GFS continues to insist it will get into the area Tues night and pass through overnight. The NAM (as far as we can see into this event with it) keeps the front north of us through Tues night, but shows shortwaves moving along the front, which could cause prefrontal precipitation, especially by Tues night. At H5 things are more 'troughy' than higher up, but flow is still closer to parallel to our surface front than they are perpendicular. With upper level flow somewhat zonal at this point in the forecast period, I prefer the slower NAM surface translation over the GFS solution. With that said, will introduce a 20 PoP for Tues night through Wed night. Not going to go higher on one particular period until we can nail down timing a little better. -DL

Hazardous Weather

No hazardous weather is expected through the forecast period.

Astronomical and Climatological Data
Moon Phase Half Full (Waning) Sunset 7:25 PM Sunrise 6:17 AM	04/23/06 Normal High Record High Normal Low Record Low Temperature 79°F 90°F (1883) 56°F 43°F (1926) April Normal Wettest Driest Precipitation 5.06 in. 17.69 in. (1955) 0.08 in. (1999)