Monday Night Forecast

Forecast Issued by Michael Leach on 04/24/2006 at 2:31:56 pm CT

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Tonight	Tomorrow	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday
	85°F	81°F	79°F	81°F
64°F		67°F	56°F	53°F
S 5-10 mph	SSW 10 mph	W 10-15 mph	N 5-10 mph	S 5-10 mph
0%	20%	60%	0%	0%

Detailed Forecast

Tonight… Partly cloudy. Low around 64. Winds south 5-10 mph. Tomorrow... Increasing clouds with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. High near 85. Winds south-southwest around 10 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Tuesday Night... Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low around 67. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 40 percent. Wednesday... Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. High near 81. Winds west 10-15 mph. Chance of rain is 60 percent. Wednesday Night... Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening. Decreasing clouds overnight. Low around 56. Winds northwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Thursday... Mostly sunny. High around 79. Winds north 5-10 mph. Thursday Night... Mostly clear. Low near 53. Winds north around 5 mph. Friday... Partly cloudy. High around 81. Winds south 5-10 mph. Friday Night... Partly cloudy. Low around 60. Winds south 5-10 mph.

Technical Discussion

Forecast Discussion (Monday through Friday): Currently, the region is under the influence of a surface area of high pressure located over the Florida Panhandle. Surface winds are coming from the south to southwest around this area of high pressure. For tonight, the area of high pressure and its associated surface ridging will continue to dominate our weather. Once again cut a couple of degrees off of MAV and MET guidance as MOS has been running a couple of degrees warm for overnight lows over the past few nights. On Tuesday, clouds will increase as the next storm system approaches our area. Retained slight chance PoP's for Tuesday during the day. Models differ a little on timing of the next frontal passage. GFS now seems to be quicker with fropa than the NAM. The GFS brings the front through around 27/00z, while the NAM brings the front through closer to around 27/06z. Best chance of rain appears to be during the day on Wednesday, and feel comfortable raising rain chances to likely category (60%) for Wednesday. Will keep a 20% PoP in the forecast for Wednesday night to account for any lingering showers (and the difference in fropa times indicated by models). By late Wednesday night, clouds should begin to decrease as CAA begins over the region. Now, about the chances for severe weather with this system. The ETA shows CAPE values around 1000 J/KG Tuesday evening through early Wednesday morning, and then again Wednesday afternoon, with LI's between -2 and -5. The GFS is a little less robust, with CAPE values between 500-800 J/KG, and LI's between -2 and -3. With this, there is the potential of a few strong to isolated severe thunderstorms late Tuesday night and during the day on Wednesday. At this time, the severe weather situation still looks rather marginal. The main threat at this time looks to be large hail with fairly steep lapse rates aloft. Damaging winds would also be possible with the strongest storms. Will continue the strong to severe wording in the HWO, but not add any wording to the detailed forecast at this time. In addition, there is the potential for locally heavy rainfall in a few areas where storms persist or "train" over the same areas (as is often the case with slow moving cold fronts). Will also mention this in the HWO. Thursday should be a nice day as high pressure building into the Midwest and Lower Mississippi Valley region. CAA will continue, and both highs and lows will be cooler during this period. On Friday, the area of high pressure shifts to the east and an area of low pressure begins to develop over west Texas. Return flow will develop over the area, as winds shift to the south. WAA will begin, and we should see more clouds on Friday than Thursday. However, the area should remain dry on Friday as the closest precip will be located with the developing low over Texas (which could affect our area during the weekend). Previous forecast for this period looks great, and made only minor changes.

Hazardous Weather

A slow moving cold front is expected to approach the area from the west beginning on Tuesday night, and will likely move through the area on Wednesday afternoon or evening. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop in association with the cold front. There is the potential a few strong to isolated severe storms. The main threat with any severe storms will be large hail and damaging winds. Also, locally heavy rainfall is possible with the strongest storms, and where storms persist over the same areas. People are urged to keep up with the latest forecasts concerning this weather system.

Astronomical and Climatological Data
Moon Phase Half Full (Waning) Sunset 7:26 PM Sunrise 6:15 AM	04/25/06 Normal High Record High Normal Low Record Low Temperature 80°F 88°F (1989) 57°F 39°F (1910) April Normal Wettest Driest Precipitation 5.06 in. 17.69 in. (1955) 0.08 in. (1999)