Monday Morning Forecast

Forecast Issued by Justin Gibbs on 04/24/2006 at 12:50:40 am CT

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Today	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday
87°F	85°F	81°F	79°F	81°F
	64°F	66°F	54°F	54°F
S 5-10 mph	SW 5-10 mph	W 5-15 mph	N 5-10 mph	SW 5-10 mph
0%	20%	50%	0%	0%

Detailed Forecast

Today... Partly cloudy. High 87. Winds south 5-10 mph. Monday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 64. Winds south 5-10 mph. Tuesday... Increasing cloudiness with isolated showers and thunderstorms. High 85. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Tuesday Night... Scattered showers and thunderstorms, otherwise mostly cloudy. Low 66. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 50 percent. Wednesday... Scattered showers and thunderstorms, otherwise mostly cloudy. High 81. Winds west 5-15 mph. Chance of rain is 50 percent. Wednesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 54. Winds northwest 5-15 mph. Thursday... Mostly sunny. High 79. Winds north 5-10 mph. Thursday Night... Mostly clear. Low 54. Winds west 5-10 mph. Friday... Partly cloudy. High 81. Winds southwest 5-10 mph.

Technical Discussion

Forecast Discussion (Monday through Friday): Right Now... Ridge centered over the ERN gulf controls the wx pattern this morning. Light southeasterly winds are reported at all regional observations with little in the way of cloud cover. Ridging has built in throughout much of the column with the only pertubation upstream which is responsible for the sfc cylcone that will be the main focus of this fcst pkg, and the convection ongoing across the CNTRL CONUS. A bit of moisture remains in this airmass despite the ridging however as WV/KLIX 12z sounding shows in the mid levels, and just off the surface. Short Term... Ridge axis will build through period one across the area...residual moisture and daytime heating will again spark a few clouds in the afternoon but it appears we won't get too much above 4/10 coverage during the day. Given the strength of the ridging aloft compared with 12/18z guidance will bump going high up 1 degree which is also 1 warmer than warmest MOS. Same pattern exists thorugh the overnight hours. MOS has been running a touch too warm with overnight lows and this is reflected in going package. Will cointinue with 64 for Mon Night low under Partly cloudy skies as the trof axis begins to approach from the northwest. Long Term... Tuesday we begin to examine the approaching storm system from the northwest. Guidance is in solid agreement with the overall handling of the features with this system, but NAM/GFS do differ by about 6 hours on timing with the frontal passage. NAM is a touch quicker and brings the front through by 12z while GFS lags behind to closer to 0z Thursday. Upper level winds do not really catch up with the frontal boundary until 21-0z Thursday so will go with the slower solution, which is supported by ECMWF/UKMET. Essentially current scenario involves a frontal system diving to the southeast Tuesday and becoming more east-to-west oriented as the afternoon progresses, eventually slowing along the NCNTRAL gulf coast much akin to what we saw occur Friday. Will go with going forecasts solution with 20/50/50 for the event. This gives us pretty acurate coverage pops to what is expected to occur, later shifts can perhaps tweak one period slightly higher once the event nears and we get a better look at which 12 hour timeframe will see the most activity. In terms of convection intensity NAM forecast soundings show a rather substantial positive area from roughly 0z Wednesday through the mid-afternoon frontal passage. NAM CAPE values hold around 1800-2000 j/kg through the event with LIs around -4/-6. Lapse rates of 7.0-7.5 c/km also appear to support the possibility of vigourous convection with the frontal passage. However given meager upper level support (0-6km shear peaks at around 25kts) do not expect overly organized convection--again similarly to Friday's event we should be looking at more pulse severe oriented storms. Given the steep lapse rates aloft the main threat at this time appears to be in the form of large hail, althogh damaging downburst winds will be an attendant threat with any elevated core. Tornadoes, other than those fueled by localized helicity maximums near boundaries do not currently appear likely. Beyond that another sfc ridge moves in from the southwest, and a rather robust closed low forms aloft...this prevents much in the way of upper level ridging over the NCNTRL Gulf and aids in the support of the more climatologically normal values 0z MOS suite is painting for highs...going forecast has solid handle on this will make few changes to the extended.

Hazardous Weather

A cold front is expected to slowly move through the area Tuesday night into Wednesday. As this system slowly pushes in from the north it is expected to spark showers and thunderstorms. Some of these storms may become severe with the main threat being large hail, damaging winds will also be possible with any storm that manages to reach severe limits. The storms will likely be fairly disorganized in nature and may redevelop over the same areas several times. Some areas may recieve locally heavy rainfall amounts as this system pushes through. Updates will be made to this product as the event approaches and forecast details become clearer.

Astronomical and Climatological Data
Moon Phase Half Full (Waning) Sunrise 6:16 AM Sunset 7:26 PM	04/24/06 Normal High Record High Normal Low Record Low Temperature 80°F 91°F (1999) 57°F 43°F (1884) April Normal Wettest Driest Precipitation 5.06 in. 17.69 in. (1955) 0.08 in. (1999)