Monday Evening Forecast

Forecast Issued by Michael Leach on 04/17/2006 at 4:22:31 pm CT

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Tonight	Tomorrow	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday
	90°F	89°F	87°F	87°F
68°F		68°F	68°F	67°F
WSW 5-10 mph	SW 5-10 mph	SW 5-10 mph	SW 5-10 mph	SW 5-10 mph
0%	0%	0%	10%	20%

Detailed Forecast

Tonight… Partly cloudy. Low around 68. Winds west-southwest 5-10 mph. Tomorrow... Mostly sunny. Record high temperature possible. High near 90. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Tuesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low around 68. Winds southwest 3-8 mph. Wednesday... Partly cloudy. Record high temperature possible. High around 89. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Wednesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low near 68. Winds southwest 3-8 mph. Thursday... Partly cloudy. High near 87. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 10 percent. Thursday Night... Partly cloudy. Low around 68. Winds southwest 3-8 mph. Friday... Partly cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms. High near 87. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 20%. Friday Night... Partly cloudy with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low around 67. Winds south 3-8 mph. Chance of rain is 20%.

Technical Discussion

Short Term (Through Wednesday): First of all, I would like to apologize for the last issuance of this forecast package (been working very hard on a lab for one of my meteorology classes). A very warm (make that hot) afternoon today, with KMOB at least tying the record high of 88 for this date. KMOB reported 88 at 19z on the hourly observation, and it is possible that the actual high could be a degree or so warmer. For the short term, the main concern is temperatures. Record highs of 88 for both Tuesday and Wednesday are in jeopardy. MAV guidance shows a high of 90 for Tuesday, while MET shows a high of 91. Both MAV and MET show a high of 89 for Wednesday. Will forecast a high of 90 tomorrow and 89 Wednesday at KMOB, which would break the record for both dates if they verify. Otherwise, through the short term, dry conditions will persist as area remains under upper level ridge, keeping storm track to the north. Long Term (Thursday and Friday): Upper level ridge begins to break down a bit by Thursday, but a weak upper level ridge should remain over the area through at least Friday. However, a few pertubations in the flow will move across the region, especially on Friday and into the weekend. Some PVA could occur with these small shortwave troughs, which could lead to a little more lifting over the area. Some negative omega values approach the area on Friday, but are more pronounced just to the north and west of the area. A weak WAA pattern should continue over the region through the long term period. SHRA/TSRA chances will increase slightly by the end of the week with a little more lifting over the area. However, models indicate the most moisture and lift to the north and west of the area closer to a strong closed upper level low moving through the Great Lakes Region, and a stronger shortwave trough moving across the mid-South region. Will keep PoP's at 10% for Thursday, and 20% for Friday at this time. It is interesting to note that the Day 4-8 Outlook from SPC places the western and central Gulf Coast Region in a risk for severe thunderstorms starting on Friday, and lasting through Saturday. This could be a case where only isolated thunderstorms form, but any storms that do develop could be strong. Will not mention anything in the HWO at this time, as model timing and continuity is still lacking a bit for this period. But we'll keep our eyes on it.

Hazardous Weather

No hazardous weather is expected through the forecast period.