Short Term Update (Issued at 8:38 PM CDT)

At 8:30 pm, radar showed that the showers had exited most of Mobile County with the exception of the Saraland area. Saraland, Satsuma, Chickasaw, Creola, as well as areas along Interstate 65 toward the Mobile River, will continue to experience rainfall this evening. However, the activity is moving northeast and is expected to exit Mobile County by around 9:00 pm. Showers may persist through at least 10:00 pm across central and upper Baldwin Counties, generally north of Interstate 10. Only isolated brief showers will occur south of Interstate 10.

Short Term Update (Issued at 6:45 PM CDT)

Heavy rain showers are continuing across Mobile and Baldwin Counties as of 6:40 pm. The most concentrated area of showers is located south of Interstate 10 and east of Interstate 65, in Mobile County, and generally north of Interstate 10 in Baldwin County. Additional showers near Grand Bay are moving northeast and will once again bring rain to western sections of Mobile after 7:00 pm.

A few isolated thunderstorms have developed this evening over southeast Mobile County. Additional thunderstorms may occur further east over Mobile Bay and Baldwin County as well. Occasional lightning, heavy rain, and gusty winds will accompany any these storms.

Special Weather Update

As of 6:35 pm, a strong thunderstorm is located between Interstate 10 and Bayou La Batre. This storm is moving northeast and will reach Bellingrath Road by 6:40 PM, and Rangleline Road 6:45 pm. The most intense portion of the storm is expected to remain south of Tilman’s Corner. Occasional cloud-to-ground lightning, gusty winds, and possibly small hail will accompany this thunderstorm. Heavy rainfall can also be expected which will significantly reducing visibility and resulting in hazardous driving conditions.

Short Term Update (Issued at 6:01 PM CDT)

Heavy rain showers are occurring over the southeastern half of Mobile County as of 5:50 PM. These showers are moving slowly northeast and are expected to persist through the evening hours.

A few isolated thunderstorms may develop this evening, especially further south across southern and southeastern Mobile County and over Baldwin County. Occasional lightning, heavy rain, and gusty winds will accompany any storms that develop.

-RB

Short Term Update (Issued at 2:37 PM)

Showers and thunderstorms will continue across the region this afternoon. All thunderstorms are moving northeast at around 20 mph and are producing very heavy rainfall and dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning.

At 2:30 PM, the strongest storm was located over northwest Mobile County and was approaching Citronelle. Very heavy rain, dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning, small hail, and wind gusts to near 40 mph can be expected as the storm passes. Weaker storms extend eastward across Celeste Road to near Creola and Satsuma. Additional development is likely through the rest of the afternoon.

Monday Night Forecast

Forecast Issued by Michael Leach on 04/24/2006 at 2:31:56 pm CT

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Tonight	Tomorrow	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday
	85°F	81°F	79°F	81°F
64°F		67°F	56°F	53°F
S 5-10 mph	SSW 10 mph	W 10-15 mph	N 5-10 mph	S 5-10 mph
0%	20%	60%	0%	0%

Detailed Forecast

Tonight… Partly cloudy. Low around 64. Winds south 5-10 mph. Tomorrow... Increasing clouds with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. High near 85. Winds south-southwest around 10 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Tuesday Night... Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low around 67. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 40 percent. Wednesday... Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. High near 81. Winds west 10-15 mph. Chance of rain is 60 percent. Wednesday Night... Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening. Decreasing clouds overnight. Low around 56. Winds northwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Thursday... Mostly sunny. High around 79. Winds north 5-10 mph. Thursday Night... Mostly clear. Low near 53. Winds north around 5 mph. Friday... Partly cloudy. High around 81. Winds south 5-10 mph. Friday Night... Partly cloudy. Low around 60. Winds south 5-10 mph.

Technical Discussion

Forecast Discussion (Monday through Friday): Currently, the region is under the influence of a surface area of high pressure located over the Florida Panhandle. Surface winds are coming from the south to southwest around this area of high pressure. For tonight, the area of high pressure and its associated surface ridging will continue to dominate our weather. Once again cut a couple of degrees off of MAV and MET guidance as MOS has been running a couple of degrees warm for overnight lows over the past few nights. On Tuesday, clouds will increase as the next storm system approaches our area. Retained slight chance PoP's for Tuesday during the day. Models differ a little on timing of the next frontal passage. GFS now seems to be quicker with fropa than the NAM. The GFS brings the front through around 27/00z, while the NAM brings the front through closer to around 27/06z. Best chance of rain appears to be during the day on Wednesday, and feel comfortable raising rain chances to likely category (60%) for Wednesday. Will keep a 20% PoP in the forecast for Wednesday night to account for any lingering showers (and the difference in fropa times indicated by models). By late Wednesday night, clouds should begin to decrease as CAA begins over the region. Now, about the chances for severe weather with this system. The ETA shows CAPE values around 1000 J/KG Tuesday evening through early Wednesday morning, and then again Wednesday afternoon, with LI's between -2 and -5. The GFS is a little less robust, with CAPE values between 500-800 J/KG, and LI's between -2 and -3. With this, there is the potential of a few strong to isolated severe thunderstorms late Tuesday night and during the day on Wednesday. At this time, the severe weather situation still looks rather marginal. The main threat at this time looks to be large hail with fairly steep lapse rates aloft. Damaging winds would also be possible with the strongest storms. Will continue the strong to severe wording in the HWO, but not add any wording to the detailed forecast at this time. In addition, there is the potential for locally heavy rainfall in a few areas where storms persist or "train" over the same areas (as is often the case with slow moving cold fronts). Will also mention this in the HWO. Thursday should be a nice day as high pressure building into the Midwest and Lower Mississippi Valley region. CAA will continue, and both highs and lows will be cooler during this period. On Friday, the area of high pressure shifts to the east and an area of low pressure begins to develop over west Texas. Return flow will develop over the area, as winds shift to the south. WAA will begin, and we should see more clouds on Friday than Thursday. However, the area should remain dry on Friday as the closest precip will be located with the developing low over Texas (which could affect our area during the weekend). Previous forecast for this period looks great, and made only minor changes.

Hazardous Weather

A slow moving cold front is expected to approach the area from the west beginning on Tuesday night, and will likely move through the area on Wednesday afternoon or evening. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop in association with the cold front. There is the potential a few strong to isolated severe storms. The main threat with any severe storms will be large hail and damaging winds. Also, locally heavy rainfall is possible with the strongest storms, and where storms persist over the same areas. People are urged to keep up with the latest forecasts concerning this weather system.

Astronomical and Climatological Data
Moon Phase Half Full (Waning) Sunset 7:26 PM Sunrise 6:15 AM	04/25/06 Normal High Record High Normal Low Record Low Temperature 80°F 88°F (1989) 57°F 39°F (1910) April Normal Wettest Driest Precipitation 5.06 in. 17.69 in. (1955) 0.08 in. (1999)

Monday Morning Forecast

Forecast Issued by Justin Gibbs on 04/24/2006 at 12:50:40 am CT

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Today	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday
87°F	85°F	81°F	79°F	81°F
	64°F	66°F	54°F	54°F
S 5-10 mph	SW 5-10 mph	W 5-15 mph	N 5-10 mph	SW 5-10 mph
0%	20%	50%	0%	0%

Detailed Forecast

Today... Partly cloudy. High 87. Winds south 5-10 mph. Monday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 64. Winds south 5-10 mph. Tuesday... Increasing cloudiness with isolated showers and thunderstorms. High 85. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Tuesday Night... Scattered showers and thunderstorms, otherwise mostly cloudy. Low 66. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 50 percent. Wednesday... Scattered showers and thunderstorms, otherwise mostly cloudy. High 81. Winds west 5-15 mph. Chance of rain is 50 percent. Wednesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 54. Winds northwest 5-15 mph. Thursday... Mostly sunny. High 79. Winds north 5-10 mph. Thursday Night... Mostly clear. Low 54. Winds west 5-10 mph. Friday... Partly cloudy. High 81. Winds southwest 5-10 mph.

Technical Discussion

Forecast Discussion (Monday through Friday): Right Now... Ridge centered over the ERN gulf controls the wx pattern this morning. Light southeasterly winds are reported at all regional observations with little in the way of cloud cover. Ridging has built in throughout much of the column with the only pertubation upstream which is responsible for the sfc cylcone that will be the main focus of this fcst pkg, and the convection ongoing across the CNTRL CONUS. A bit of moisture remains in this airmass despite the ridging however as WV/KLIX 12z sounding shows in the mid levels, and just off the surface. Short Term... Ridge axis will build through period one across the area...residual moisture and daytime heating will again spark a few clouds in the afternoon but it appears we won't get too much above 4/10 coverage during the day. Given the strength of the ridging aloft compared with 12/18z guidance will bump going high up 1 degree which is also 1 warmer than warmest MOS. Same pattern exists thorugh the overnight hours. MOS has been running a touch too warm with overnight lows and this is reflected in going package. Will cointinue with 64 for Mon Night low under Partly cloudy skies as the trof axis begins to approach from the northwest. Long Term... Tuesday we begin to examine the approaching storm system from the northwest. Guidance is in solid agreement with the overall handling of the features with this system, but NAM/GFS do differ by about 6 hours on timing with the frontal passage. NAM is a touch quicker and brings the front through by 12z while GFS lags behind to closer to 0z Thursday. Upper level winds do not really catch up with the frontal boundary until 21-0z Thursday so will go with the slower solution, which is supported by ECMWF/UKMET. Essentially current scenario involves a frontal system diving to the southeast Tuesday and becoming more east-to-west oriented as the afternoon progresses, eventually slowing along the NCNTRAL gulf coast much akin to what we saw occur Friday. Will go with going forecasts solution with 20/50/50 for the event. This gives us pretty acurate coverage pops to what is expected to occur, later shifts can perhaps tweak one period slightly higher once the event nears and we get a better look at which 12 hour timeframe will see the most activity. In terms of convection intensity NAM forecast soundings show a rather substantial positive area from roughly 0z Wednesday through the mid-afternoon frontal passage. NAM CAPE values hold around 1800-2000 j/kg through the event with LIs around -4/-6. Lapse rates of 7.0-7.5 c/km also appear to support the possibility of vigourous convection with the frontal passage. However given meager upper level support (0-6km shear peaks at around 25kts) do not expect overly organized convection--again similarly to Friday's event we should be looking at more pulse severe oriented storms. Given the steep lapse rates aloft the main threat at this time appears to be in the form of large hail, althogh damaging downburst winds will be an attendant threat with any elevated core. Tornadoes, other than those fueled by localized helicity maximums near boundaries do not currently appear likely. Beyond that another sfc ridge moves in from the southwest, and a rather robust closed low forms aloft...this prevents much in the way of upper level ridging over the NCNTRL Gulf and aids in the support of the more climatologically normal values 0z MOS suite is painting for highs...going forecast has solid handle on this will make few changes to the extended.

Hazardous Weather

A cold front is expected to slowly move through the area Tuesday night into Wednesday. As this system slowly pushes in from the north it is expected to spark showers and thunderstorms. Some of these storms may become severe with the main threat being large hail, damaging winds will also be possible with any storm that manages to reach severe limits. The storms will likely be fairly disorganized in nature and may redevelop over the same areas several times. Some areas may recieve locally heavy rainfall amounts as this system pushes through. Updates will be made to this product as the event approaches and forecast details become clearer.

Astronomical and Climatological Data
Moon Phase Half Full (Waning) Sunrise 6:16 AM Sunset 7:26 PM	04/24/06 Normal High Record High Normal Low Record Low Temperature 80°F 91°F (1999) 57°F 43°F (1884) April Normal Wettest Driest Precipitation 5.06 in. 17.69 in. (1955) 0.08 in. (1999)

Sunday Night Forecast

Forecast Issued by Randy Bowers on 04/23/2006 at 2:37:56 pm CT

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Tonight	Tomorrow	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday
	86°F	85°F	81°F	79°F
61°F		64°F	65°F	53°F
S 5 mph	S 5-10 mph	SW 5-10 mph	SW 5-10 mph	N 5-10 mph
0%	0%	20%	50%	0%

Detailed Forecast

Tonight… Becoming partly cloudy. Low 61. Winds south 5 mph. Tomorrow... Partly cloudy. High 86. Winds south 5-10 mph. Monday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 64. Winds south 5 mph. Tuesday... Partly cloudy with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly late. High 85. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Tuesday Night... A chance of rain and thunderstorms. Otherwise, mostly cloudy. Low 65. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 50 percent. Wednesday... A chance of rain and thunderstorms. Otherwise, mostly cloudy. High 81. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 50 percent. Wednesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 53. Winds northwest 5-10 mph. Thursday... Partly cloudy. High 79. Winds north 5-10 mph. Thursday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 52. Winds north 5-10 mph.

Technical Discussion

Surface ridge centered over our area with light winds and little cloud cover this afternoon. This ridge will slowly shift east early in the week with southerly flow beginning as early as late tonight, continuing ahead of next system by mid-week. Little concerns for the short term portion of the forecast with the exception of overnight temperatures tonight. With ridge axis overhead shifting just east of us by morning, winds will remain light and am doubtful that surface Td values will rise as much as MOS indicate overnight. Therefore, have undercut MOS lows by a degree or two. Will remain consistent with previously forecasted temperatures into next week with MOS remaining very similar to what we still have going. Mid-level shortwave and cold front will approach on Tuesday. Some differences in models with regard to strength of this system makes extended portion somewhat challenging. There doesn't seem to be a major discrepancy in timing with fropa, though models are quicker its progression. To account for this, have introduced a slight PoP for late Tuesday and high chance for Tuesday night. SWODY3 from SPC indicates a slight risk for severe. Will let later shifts evaluate subsequent model runs for possible issuance of HWO. Weak lapse rates resulting in marginal instability as well as weak deep layer shear point toward an isolated marginal severe event, at best. As previously mentioned, some differences in strength of cold front exist between models with GFS being the most aggressive, as is typical. Regardless, cooler/drier air mass progged for late week and will continue to follow MEX values for post-frontal temperatures. Return flow reestablishes into the weekend in advance of next wave and next precipitation event likely to be Sunday/Monday per medium range consensus.

Hazardous Weather

No hazardous weather is expected through the forecast period.

Astronomical and Climatological Data
Moon Phase Half Full (Waning) Sunset 7:26 PM Sunrise 6:16 AM	04/24/06 Normal High Record High Normal Low Record Low Temperature 80°F 91°F (1999) 57°F 43°F (1884) April Normal Wettest Driest Precipitation 5.06 in. 17.69 in. (1955) 0.08 in. (1999)

Saturday Night Forecast

Forecast Issued by Randy Bowers/Daniel Lamb on 04/22/2006 at 5:28:42 pm CT

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Tonight	Tomorrow	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday
	86°F	86°F	85°F	80°F
59°F		61°F	67°F	65°F
N 5 mph	VAR 5 mph	S 5-10 mph	SW 5-10 mph	SW 5-10 mph
0%	0%	0%	0%	20%

Detailed Forecast

Tonight… Mostly clear with areas of fog forming. Low 59. Winds north 5 mph. Tomorrow... Mostly sunny. High 86. Winds variable 5 mph. Sunday Night... Mostly clear. Low 61. Winds variable 5 mph. Monday... Partly cloudy. High 86. Winds south 5-10 mph. Monday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 67. Winds south 3-8 mph. Tuesday... Partly cloudy. High 85. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Tuesday Night... Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Low 65. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Wednesday... Isolated showers and thunderstorms. High 80. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Wednesday Night... Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Low 62. Winds west 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent.

Technical Discussion

Short Term (Saturday through Sunday Night): Early this afternoon, last night’s convection had shifted well east with the passage of mid/upper trough. Drier and cooler air was present across our region in the wake of this system. KLIX 12z sounding indicates very dry air above H7 and this was also noted by visual observations from Mobile with deep blue sky. Also, flat CU field present with diurnal heating. CU will decrease rapidly with loss of insolation by this evening and will go with clear skies overnight. One concern will be fog formation overnight with surface ridge in close proximity and moist ground as a result of pervious day’s rainfall. Additionally, low level moisture is still present with Td values ranging from the upper 50s to the lower 60s along the central gulf coast. Will add mention of overnight fog into the forecast. Upper ridge will build into the area temporarily later this weekend before it begins to break down by late Sunday. Until then, rather uneventful weather, with above normal temperatures and dry conditions lasting through the short term portion of this forecast package. Generally stuck close to MOS high temperatures. For lows, believe MOS is a little cool for tonight’s low temperatures and have adjusted up a degree or two given lingering low level moisture. MOS may be slightly too warm for Sunday night lows since low level moisture thins out some and light winds expected resulting from the presence of surface ridge. Therefore, chose to go a degree or two under MOS. -RB Long Term (Monday through Wednesday): With high pressure east of the area Monday and return flow well established, we should fairly quickly re-moisten the lower levels of the atmosphere and continue to rebound temp-wise (not that we fell off that far behind this morning's fropa). Next front should be approaching the Southeastern US by Tuesday. Some model disagreement on when this front will reach us. The GFS continues to insist it will get into the area Tues night and pass through overnight. The NAM (as far as we can see into this event with it) keeps the front north of us through Tues night, but shows shortwaves moving along the front, which could cause prefrontal precipitation, especially by Tues night. At H5 things are more 'troughy' than higher up, but flow is still closer to parallel to our surface front than they are perpendicular. With upper level flow somewhat zonal at this point in the forecast period, I prefer the slower NAM surface translation over the GFS solution. With that said, will introduce a 20 PoP for Tues night through Wed night. Not going to go higher on one particular period until we can nail down timing a little better. -DL

Hazardous Weather

No hazardous weather is expected through the forecast period.

Astronomical and Climatological Data
Moon Phase Half Full (Waning) Sunset 7:25 PM Sunrise 6:17 AM	04/23/06 Normal High Record High Normal Low Record Low Temperature 79°F 90°F (1883) 56°F 43°F (1926) April Normal Wettest Driest Precipitation 5.06 in. 17.69 in. (1955) 0.08 in. (1999)

Short Term Update (Issued at 1:06 PM CDT)

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop and become more numerous over southeast Mississippi this afternoon. Additional development further east is expected as the afternoon progresses. The showers and thunderstorms are expected to remain scattered in nature through the afternoon hours meaning many locations in and around Mobile will not seeing any rainfall at all, initially. By late afternoon, a complex of thunderstorms is expected to approach the area bringing more widespread rain to the Mobile area.

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms. In addition to heavy rain and dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning, the most intense storms will be capable of large hail and damaging winds.

Shortly after 1:00 PM, the most intense activity was confined to Greene, Perry, and Stone Counties in Mississippi. Only a few brief light showers were noted in Mobile County, between Mobile and Citronelle along highway 45.

Thursday Morning Forecast

Forecast Issued by Randy Bowers on 04/19/2006 at 11:48:57 pm CT

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Today	Friday	Saturday	Sunday	Monday
87°F	85°F	84°F	84°F	86°F
	68°F	67°F	56°F	57°F
S 5 mph	SW 5-10 mph	SW 5-10 mph	VAR 5 mph	S 5-10 mph
10%	20%	30%	0%	0%

Detailed Forecast

Today... Areas of fog in the morning. Otherwise, partly cloudy. High 87. Winds south at around 5 mph. Thursday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 68. Winds south at around 5 mph. Friday... Partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon. High 85. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Friday Night... Partly to cloudy with a chance of thunderstorms. Low 67. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 30 percent. Saturday... A chance of thunderstorms, mainly in the morning. Otherwise, mostly cloudy early with partial clearing during the afternoon. High 84. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 30 percent. Saturday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 56. Winds variable 5 mph. Sunday... Partly cloudy. High 84. Winds variable 5 mph. Sunday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 57. Winds variable 5 mph. Monday... Partly cloudy. High 86. Winds south 5-10 mph.

Technical Discussion

One concern earlier this evening was that activity over central Alabama would be able to generate a substantial enough cold pool, with time, to begin propagating more quickly southward/southeastward. Thus far, this has not happened. The thought was that even if it were to happen, it would propagate with mean flow and remain near parallel to NW-to-SE oriented surface boundary which was located well to our east and thus not being much of a threat to Mobile. Latest trends are for a more westward building of convection behind a westward propagating outflow boundary. Despite stabilizing boundary layer, thunderstorms should continue to develop behind this westward moving outflow boundary through the evening and into the overnight --likely becoming increasingly more elevated in nature. Believe this process will continue long enough for convective cluster to at least reach a Carrollton, to Camden, to Enterprise line. Believe with decrease in instability as a result of nocturnal cooling that westward moving boundary will become less and less effective at convective generation as time goes by. Rather substantial low level temperature inversion has developed along the coast this evening, evident on KMOB 88d with AP returns oriented parallel to the coast. Inversion was not yet evident at 00z on the KLIX sounding and has likely only recently strengthened with nocturnal cooling of the boundary layer now well underway. Fog formation is a concern later tonight with strong inversion coupled with light winds and T/Td spread rather small. Will mention fog for the first part of period one. Forecast for the next few days will weigh heavily on the behavior of diurnal convective development invof boundaries and their effect on said boundaries. Additionally, convectively generated boundaries will also be a factor as sfc/near sfc winds will likely prove insufficient to displace /mix out/ these outflow boundaries. This is very much a summer-like pattern with weak ridging aloft resulting in relatively light winds throughout the column. Unseasonably warm temperatures will continue as well with near record highs once again tomorrow. Will forecast a high one degree below the record which is still slightly above MOS consensus but seems reasonable given ridging aloft and similar thickness and sky cover as today. Only concern with respect to temperatures would be if clouds were a little more prevalent limiting insolation. This seems to be the cause for MOS' somewhat cooler temperatures. For now will forecast partial sky cover and go slightly above MOS for consistency sake, if nothing else. Synoptically, NAM shows a weak perturbation at H5 passes just north of Mobile during peak heating tomorrow. Thinking any convection will be focused just north of the city and will only go with a silent 10 PoP attm. A more substantial wave crosses the area Fri night/Sat. An associated cold front attempts to make it to Mobile and per coordination with pervious shift, models were considerably more aggressive with sfc features in the 12z run. New 00z run seems comparatively aggressive and am apt to buy into this. Regardless, even without full fropa, diurnal convection along and ahead of front would likely be enough to justify the going PoPs in the forecast. In fact, going PoPs may be on the low side but will not alter as of yet given lack of confidence in surface features, timing, and effect of more recent convective activity. Beyond Saturday, surface ridge takes over with a slight releif from heat and humidity. Deep moisture shifts east with progression of mid/upper trough and PWAT values fall substantially despite some lingering low level moisture. Therefore, will leave PoPs out beyond Saturday. 0-6km shear of AOA 30 kts should be enough to favor some storm organization late Fri into early Sat. Additionally, at least marginal lapse rates and weak to moderate instability may favor intense convective updrafts. Isolated severe multi-cells seems possible with trough passage late Fri into Sat, but given pulse-like nature due to vertical/near-vertical updrafts, any severe events will likely be marginal hail or wind, and brief. Will mention this in the HWO product. Generally kept the same theme as going forecast with only a few changes, mainly to PoPs and wording for timing. Also, the introduction of HWO highlighting isolated marginal severe threat Fri-Sat. I stuck close to MOS, though I discounted FWC's low temperature for second period as Tds initialized way to low and remain way to low through the forecast period. For second period temperatures, went with MET.

Hazardous Weather

A weak weather system will pass through the area late Friday into early Saturday. Although some rainfall is expected, this system is not expected to bring widespread relief to the dry conditions as not everyone will see rain. The rain is expected to come in the form of isolated to scattered thunderstorms beginning as early as Friday afternoon and lasting until late Saturday morning. A few of these storms may become rather intense and produce hail and gusty winds. An isolated severe thunderstorm with large hail and damaging winds cannot be ruled out. Although the severe weather threat is not particularly high, persons in the Mobile area are encouraged to remain alert and monitor the weather conditions between now and Saturday. You should be ready to take action in order protect life and property should severe weather threaten your area.

Astronomical and Climatological Data
Moon Phase Half Full (Waning) Sunrise 6:20 AM Sunset 7:24 PM	04/20/06 Normal High Record High Normal Low Record Low Temperature 78°F 88°F (1968) 56°F 40°F (1953) April Normal Wettest Driest Precipitation 5.06 in. 17.69 in. (1955) 0.08 in. (1999)

Wednesday Evening Forecast

Forecast Issued by Justin Gibbs on 04/19/2006 at 4:01:21 pm CT

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Tonight	Tomorrow	Friday	Saturday	Sunday
	87°F	85°F	82°F	84°F
67°F		66°F	62°F	60°F
SW 5-10 mph	S 5-10 mph	SW 5-10 mph	NW 5-10 mph	SW 5-10 mph
0%	0%	20%	30%	0%

Detailed Forecast

Tonight… Partly cloudy, with patchy fog after 3 a.m. Low 67. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Tomorrow... Partly cloudy. High 87. Winds south 5-10 mph. Thursday Night... Increasing Cloudiness. Low 66. Winds south 5-10 mph. Friday... Partly Cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. High 85. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Friday Night... Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low 62. Winds south 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 30 percent. Saturday... Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. High 82. Winds northwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 30 percent. Saturday Night... Mostly clear. Low 60. Winds northwest 5-10 mph. Sunday... Partly cloudy. High 84. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Sunday Night... Mostly clear. Low 60. Winds southwest 5-10 mph.

Technical Discussion

Forecast Discussion (Wednesday through Sunday): Right Now... At the surface a ridge is centered over the Northwestern Carribean with an axis streching northwest into the northcentral Gulf...as a sfc cyclone positiosn itself across northern Alabama. Ridging/Zonal flow persists over the northcentral Gulf coast...allowing for another hot and humid day--with moderate southerly flow and continued moisture/warm air advection. Low level moisture ribbon exists as indicated by WV imagery and KLIX/KJAN/KCRP 12z sounding from about 800mb to essentially the surface...this has allowed for continued low/mid level clouds in the daytime heating. Downstream, vertically stacked closed low is centered over eastern South Dakota. Short Term... Impacts of sfc storm system over NRN AL/MS are expected to remain well north of the MOB area. Sfc ridging and a building ridge between 700/850mb have led to meager lapse rates and a large negative area on RUC soundings...this is echoed to some degree on KLIx 12z observed sounding and appears reasonable given handling of features aloft and actual wx. We look to remain in a light to moderate southerly flow for the next 24-36 hours ahead of our next sfc storm system this weekend. Td's continue to creep upward and MOS/going forecast low of 67 looks on target. SCT/BKN cloud coverage will likely persist to some degree even into the overnight hours. Fog will again be an issue as dewpoint depressions look to drop to 0/1 in the overnight hours with a light south wind. Thursday ridging continues to build in aloft with a bit of moisture still lingering at the lowest mandatory levels. MOS seems to cool us up quite a bit due to cloud cover. Given the extremely dry air just above 800mb do not believe we will see QUITE the coverage that is advertised as lower levels should mix enough to prevent full overcast so will continue with the going forecast high of 87 which is MOS consensus blend +1. Thursday night s/wv approaches from the west and moisture begins to build throughout the column...guidance brings us to nearly full overcast by 6-12z but will for now just slide the well suited "increasing cloudiness" ("punt") forward a period as that will most likely best describe what occurs with coverage building from 2/10 to around 6/10 by morning. Long Term... Guidance has shifted considerably today in the 12z suite of products as the upper level s/wv and assocaited sfc cyclone are now nearly 15 hours faster. 18z data also suggests a much faster solution with simliar FROPA timing to the 12z data. HPC suggests this solution is plausible to likely given the initialization of the system. WV imagery also indicates 12z guidance (esp NAM) has performed well with the positioning of the system through the first 9 hours of the model run. Will basically just slide everything up a period with 20 pops returning to the forecast on Friday and going 30/30 Fri/Sat leaving Sat evening dry. Am inclined to go a bit higher given the airmass ahead of the frontal system...with plentiful deep moisture and a relatively unstable overall airmass. However, given questions that obviously persist regarding timing will hold to our going 30s and later shifts can make adjustments as forecast confidence increases. System looks to have a minimal intrusion on our airmass at this latitude as a ridge quickly builds in behind the front swinging our winds back from the southwest and back into WAA pattern. Ridge builds in aloft and it looks as was previously mentioned we will return to tempeartures just above seasonal norms for next week. Will actually bump going forecast highs up a degree given substantial increase in mandatory heights indicated in 12/18z data.

Hazardous Weather

No hazardous weather is expected through the forecast period.

Tuesday Morning Forecast

Forecast Issued by Justin Gibbs on 04/18/2006 at 1:42:04 am CT

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Today	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday
90°F	89°F	87°F	87°F	85°F
	69°F	68°F	67°F	66°F
SW 5-10 mph	SW 5-10 mph	SW 5-10 mph	SW 10-20 mph	S 10-20 mph
0%	0%	10%	10%	30%

Detailed Forecast

Today... Partly cloudy. High 90. . Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Tuesday Night... Mostly clear. Low 69. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Wednesday... Mostly sunny. High 89. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Wednesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 68. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Thursday... Partly cloudy. High 87. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 10 percent. Thursday Night... Mostly clear. Low 67. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Friday... Partly cloudy. High 87. Winds southwest 10-20 mph. Chance of rain is 10 percent. Friday Night...Partly cloudy with a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Low 66. Winds southwest 5 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Saturday... Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. High 85. Winds south 10-20 mph.

Technical Discussion

"Forecast Discussion (Tuesday through Saturday): Right Now... Region lies to the south of a frontal boundary analyzed across NRN MS/NRN AL/NRN GA this hour. Our primary sfc influence comes from a ridge centered over Cuba. Ridging exists from 700/300mb with an axis running roughly across MO/AR/LA. Wv imagery indicates a bit of moisture to our west pushing eastward. KLIX/KJAN/KCRP 0z soundings reveal this layer of moisture runs from 750-900mb roughly. Short Term... Narrow low level moisture is the main focus of this forecast package. MOS again is calling for clear skies...but with substantial sfc heating...and what appears to be a very thin band of moisture that isnt particuarly well handled in guidance will go Partly cloudy to allow for a 3-4 p.m. timeframe where we may sneak towards the 5/10--6/10 coverage range...much as we did today. Temperatures are a bit of a bear...we managed to break a record high Monday at 89 degrees...and tomorrow leans towards much of the same. We will start the day with rather substantial sun coverage and this should persist until we get very near another record high mark. Seabreeze played a bit of a role today as a boundary shot north around 2 p.m...with similar conditions today this will again be an issue. Will go with going forecast which agrees well with MOS calling for another record breaking day with a high of 90 degrees. This however likely will not be achieved immediately south of the city where a seabreeze is likely to set up by early afternoon. We stay mild in the overnight...will bump going high up 1 degree to match today's slightly warmer than MOS overnight low. We remain zonal aloft with light southwesterly sfc flow through Wednesday where another substantially warm day appears likely. Long Term... Beyond that ridge really begins to set up shop at all mandatory levels ahead of an approaching shortwave trof. Weak pertubation builds over the Lower MS VLY Thursday and pushes eastward while weakening. Guidance is indicating a bit of QPF with this event with an slight increase in deep moisture. Very little if any sfc translation remains with this event by the time it nears the MOB area...and with an increasingly strong ridge to our southeast...it appears rather unlikely we will get in on this activity. Instability values with rather meager lapse rates are marginal at best...and upper level support is for the most part lacking. Will leave the going 10 pop in however in response to marginal isentropic ascent indicated on 300k NAM plot. Feel later shifts can likely safely remove this but for now feel it most prudent to stay the course given a bit of questions regarding the strength and timingof the s/wv responsible. Friday/Saturday continue to watch approaching sfc cylcone and frontal boundary. Will continue to play the slow down game with this feature...will taper down the Friday period pops and provide most pcpn emphasis on the Saturday period. Low/Mid level windfields are not overly supportive of a full frontal passage...additionally strong ridging remains intact ahead of this system. At very least the system will have a lot to work against as it makes an EWD trek. Later shifts may need to slow the system down even further...but for now it appears we will see a roughly 0z Sunday frontal passage...with prefrontal convection throughout the day (Very similar to last week) however at the current time it appears the robustness of this convection may be rather limited as instability parameters are not as favorable for severe convection as they were during last Saturday's event. However, the potential at this point still exists for the possibility of strong thunderstorms...and possibly an isolated severe storm. Will not mention in HWO this package but later shifts may need to update to highlight SVR ptnl. "

Hazardous Weather

No hazardous weather is expected through the forecast period.

Monday Evening Forecast

Forecast Issued by Michael Leach on 04/17/2006 at 4:22:31 pm CT

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Tonight	Tomorrow	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday
	90°F	89°F	87°F	87°F
68°F		68°F	68°F	67°F
WSW 5-10 mph	SW 5-10 mph	SW 5-10 mph	SW 5-10 mph	SW 5-10 mph
0%	0%	0%	10%	20%

Detailed Forecast

Tonight… Partly cloudy. Low around 68. Winds west-southwest 5-10 mph. Tomorrow... Mostly sunny. Record high temperature possible. High near 90. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Tuesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low around 68. Winds southwest 3-8 mph. Wednesday... Partly cloudy. Record high temperature possible. High around 89. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Wednesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low near 68. Winds southwest 3-8 mph. Thursday... Partly cloudy. High near 87. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 10 percent. Thursday Night... Partly cloudy. Low around 68. Winds southwest 3-8 mph. Friday... Partly cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms. High near 87. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 20%. Friday Night... Partly cloudy with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low around 67. Winds south 3-8 mph. Chance of rain is 20%.

Technical Discussion

Short Term (Through Wednesday): First of all, I would like to apologize for the last issuance of this forecast package (been working very hard on a lab for one of my meteorology classes). A very warm (make that hot) afternoon today, with KMOB at least tying the record high of 88 for this date. KMOB reported 88 at 19z on the hourly observation, and it is possible that the actual high could be a degree or so warmer. For the short term, the main concern is temperatures. Record highs of 88 for both Tuesday and Wednesday are in jeopardy. MAV guidance shows a high of 90 for Tuesday, while MET shows a high of 91. Both MAV and MET show a high of 89 for Wednesday. Will forecast a high of 90 tomorrow and 89 Wednesday at KMOB, which would break the record for both dates if they verify. Otherwise, through the short term, dry conditions will persist as area remains under upper level ridge, keeping storm track to the north. Long Term (Thursday and Friday): Upper level ridge begins to break down a bit by Thursday, but a weak upper level ridge should remain over the area through at least Friday. However, a few pertubations in the flow will move across the region, especially on Friday and into the weekend. Some PVA could occur with these small shortwave troughs, which could lead to a little more lifting over the area. Some negative omega values approach the area on Friday, but are more pronounced just to the north and west of the area. A weak WAA pattern should continue over the region through the long term period. SHRA/TSRA chances will increase slightly by the end of the week with a little more lifting over the area. However, models indicate the most moisture and lift to the north and west of the area closer to a strong closed upper level low moving through the Great Lakes Region, and a stronger shortwave trough moving across the mid-South region. Will keep PoP's at 10% for Thursday, and 20% for Friday at this time. It is interesting to note that the Day 4-8 Outlook from SPC places the western and central Gulf Coast Region in a risk for severe thunderstorms starting on Friday, and lasting through Saturday. This could be a case where only isolated thunderstorms form, but any storms that do develop could be strong. Will not mention anything in the HWO at this time, as model timing and continuity is still lacking a bit for this period. But we'll keep our eyes on it.

Hazardous Weather

No hazardous weather is expected through the forecast period.

Sunday Night Forecast

Forecast Issued by Randy Bowers on 04/16/2006 at 3:11:38 pm CT

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Tonight	Tomorrow	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday
	85°F	88°F	87°F	85°F
65°F		66°F	68°F	68°F
SW 5 mph	SW 5-10 mph	SW 5-10 mph	SW 5-10 mph	S 5-10 mph
0%	0%	0%	0%	10%

Detailed Forecast

Tonight… Partly cloudy. Low 65. Winds southwest 5 mph. Tomorrow... Partly cloudy. High 85. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Monday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 66. Winds southwest 5 mph. Tuesday... Partly cloudy. Near record or record high temperatures. High 88. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Tuesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 68. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Wednesday... Partly cloudy. High 87. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Wednesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 68. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Thursday... Partly cloudy. High 85. Winds south 5-10 mph. Thursday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 66. Winds variable 5-10 mph.

Technical Discussion

CU field has formed parallel to the coast and inland to northern portions of Mobile and Baldwin Counties this afternoon. Temperatures have risen into the lower 80s and should rise another degree or two. Similar conditions anticipated into next week with little or no changes planned to going forecast package. Shortwave passing to the north today and will exit the east coast tomorrow. No impact is expected on our weather from this departing system. Behind departing wave, upper ridge strengthens into mid-week across the central gulf coast region as yet another trough takes shape over the northern plains by mid-week. Record high temperature looks to be achieved on Tuesday with all MOS exceeding or at least tying the old record value of 88. Beyond Tuesday, upper ridge begins to break down somewhat as the next system over the plains progresses eastward. ECMWF and GFS' motion of this next system may be too quick. GFS shows a cold front making it as far south as Mobile late Wednesday and generates some QPF along it. Feel this is way too aggressive and will look for better consistency or model agreement to back this up before introducing PoPs into the extended. Both models show trough evolving into a closed upper low which would favor the idea of a slower progression eastward. DGEX is nearly 24 hours slower than other medium range models with this system and prefer its solution. We will likely see other medium range models trend slower with this system in upcoming runs and come more inline with DGEX. Given these uncertainties, will leave the extended portion dry for now. This should be better resolved in later runs and an introduction of PoPs into mid/late week portion of the extended may be needed by later shifts. Regardless, some hope is seen by the weekend as a slightly more amplified pattern evolves and northwesterly flow aloft becomes established on the back side of the aforementioned departing system. Weak perturbations in this northwesterly flow aloft are seen in the medium range models and may help alleviate the dry conditions.

Hazardous Weather

No hazardous weather is expected through the forecast period.