Wednesday Evening Forecast

Forecast Issued by Justin Gibbs on 03/29/2006 at 12:48:58 pm CT

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Tonight	Tomorrow	Friday	Saturday	Sunday
	80°F	81°F	82°F	82°F
56°F		60°F	61°F	60°F
S 5 mph	S 5-10 mph	S 10-15 mph	S 5-10 mph	SW 5-15 mph
10%	0%	10%	30%	30%

Detailed Forecast

Tonight… Mostly cloudy, with patchy fog towards daybreak. Low 56. Winds south s 5 mph. Chance of rain is 10 percent. Tomorrow... Partly cloudy. High 80. Winds south 5-10 mph. Thursday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 60. Winds south 5-10 mph increasing to 10-15 mph overnight. Chance of rain is 10 percent. Friday... Partly cloudy. High 81. Winds south 10-15 mph. Chance of rain is 10 percent. Friday Night... Mostly cloudy with Isolated showers. Low 61. Winds south 5-15 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Saturday... Mostly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms. High 82. Winds south 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 30 percent. Saturday Night... Mostly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms. Low 60. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 30 percent. Sunday... Mostly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms. High 82. Winds southwest 5-15 mph. Chance of rain is 30 percent. Sunday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 58. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 10 percent.

Technical Discussion

"Forecast Discussion (Wednesday through Sunday): Right Now... Calm to slight southeasterly winds are being reported across the NCNTRL Gulf coast this afternoon. Main surface influences involve 2 high pressure ridges to our north and east (one centered over IN/OH the other just E of the Bahamas. We are also dealing with a lingering frontal boundary analyzed about 70 mi north of MOB last hour. This front is sparking a few showers inland and over the coastal waters. Very weak pertubation is indicated in the 500/250mb analysis over WRN LA...while a much more powerful trof is digging into the western CONUS. Short Term...(Through Thursday) Main forecast challenge regards frontal system to our north and shortwave to our west. Airmass is bone dry at the sfc with 70/49 reported last hour at KMOB. 12z LIX sounding indicates however there is a thin band of saturated air running from about 825mb-650mb...this ribbon of moisture is responsible for this afternoons largely mostly cloudy sky...and no substantial changes to the airmass are anticipated over the next 6-8 hours. Will keep a mostly cloudy solution in for cloud cover...and will put what is likely a generous 10 pop into the forecast for very light showers that may occur mainly between 7-12z when the afforementioned weak upper level shortwave axis is expected to pass. Winds are expected to continue to diminish through the evening hours...NAM/GFS both however call for the rather rich sfc moisture located just off the coast to make it's way inland by this evening providing the stage for a fog event. Fog should remain fairly patchy but it does appear it will be more widespread than it was last evening, and will include a mention in the forecast. Thursday will see our winds increase from the south as a sfc cyclone deepens over the plains in response to a strong 250/500mb disturbance pushing northeastward off the Rockies. Guidance indicates the winds should start to pick up after around 18z. Will bump going forecast up about 5mph with ""afternoon"" wording and hold about a 10-15mph forecast until FROPA...later shifts may need to bump this up further as 850mb jet is rather impressive just to our west in 12z guidance...any further eastward shift of this feature may make for a very windy afternoon and evening Thursday. Long Term... Friday front approaches from the northwest but 12z guidance across the board still appears to continue to agree that we will not see passage on Friday. Current guidance also paints no QPF with no real convergengence present. SBCAPE values are running around 500 j/kg Friday afternoon across the area but with 10-15kt winds feel the boundary layer airmass will be too well mixed to even get a bit of sea-breeze convergence and will continue the going 10 pop for dayside Friday. New guidance is a bit quicker with frontal passage...caling for a FROPA Friday overnight. Low level windfields south of the Mid-MS VLY have improved somewhat in latest runs and feel as if we may see the front run reasonably close to this timeframe. However--another major sfc/low level ridge has positioned itself off the Atlantic coast and that may serve to play out a scenario very similar to what we are currently dealing with. With that in mind will essentially stay the course of the going forecast which calls for the front to stall and linger through Saturday evening. This makes Saturday highs difficult...will essentially cut a degree or two from going MOS to allow for cloud cover and the possibility of a weak frontal passage. Later shifts will likely need to make adjustments. Once the system clears return flow quickly sets back up along the western periphery of the afforementioned surface ridge and we deal with another cyclone in the central plains. GFS/ECMWF both drag a cold front through the area Sunday night-going forecast reflects this. Only issue involves temperatures with current MEX MOS calling for a high of 86 Sunday. This appears rather unreasonable at the moment and will simply bump going forecast up a few degrees in response to the 12z's building of a more pronounced upper level ridge ahead of the next trof. "

Hazardous Weather

No hazardous weather is expected through the forecast period.