Thursday Morning Forecast

Forecast Issued by Randy Bowers on 03/23/2006 at 12:27:59 am CT

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Today	Friday	Saturday	Sunday	Monday
62°F	62°F	64°F	66°F	71°F
	35°F	35°F	37°F	43°F
N 10-15 mph	N 10-15 mph	N 10-15 mph	NE 5-10 mph	SE 5-10 mph
30%	0%	0%	0%	0%

Detailed Forecast

Today... Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers in the morning. Partial clearing by afternoon. High around 62. Winds north 10-15 mph. Chance of rain is 30 percent. Thursday Night... Mostly clear. Low around 35. Winds north 10-15 mph. Friday... Sunny.. High around 62. Winds north 10-15 mph. Friday Night... Clear. Low around 35. Winds north 5-10 mph. Saturday... Sunny.. High around 64. Winds north 10-15 mph. Saturday Night... Clear. Low around 37. Winds north 5-10 mph. Sunday... Sunny.. High around 66. Winds northeast 5-10 mph. Sunday Night... Mostly clear. Low around 43. Winds calm. Monday... Partly cloudy.. High around 71. Winds southeast 5-10 mph.

Technical Discussion

Short Term… KMOB indicating precipitation across the region with the most concentrated area paralleling the coast at this time. Went ahead with an evening update increasing PoPs to 50, otherwise no other significant changes. Upper trough and moistening column contributing to tonight’s pcpn event. KLIX 00z sounding showing a PWAT value of 0.94” with most of the moisture being confined in the H4 to H7 layer with somewhat drier air below H7. Nevertheless, column is more moist than previously forecast. NAM time height cross sections from the 00z run now showing a much more moist column than previous runs with >90 percent RH sfc-H6 post-06z –which seems to be overdone when comparing KLIX 00z sounding. Although NAM keeps the mid-levels moist through 18z, it thins moisture considerably below H8 by around 12z. PWAT values remain AOA one inch through 15z per extracted output. This can be seen more clearly on the plain view with band of H7 moisture extending along the coast from southeast Texas to JAX at 12z. RUC is similar. Will go with morning PoP for first period as best moisture departs by 18z. Confidence is not high enough for anything above low-chance attm. Nwrly flow aloft becomes established throughout the column on Friday in response to strengthening closed upper low over NErn CONUS. Heights fall considerably over our region and this is reflected in MOS temperatures. One concern is with overnight lows Thursday night. MOS consensus brings us down into the mid 30s, with MET and FWC being the warmest. Winds stay up during this period per guidance so concerns for a freeze are not high attm. Am inclined to go with MAV’s cooler low temperatures for now. Later shifts will need to watch this closely. If winds subside more than models are currently indicating, inclusion of freezing/sub-freezing temperatures in the Hazardous Weather Discussion may be needed. Long Term… Large surface high dominates over the Ern CONUS this weekend keeping us in NWrly flow at the surface. Sfc ridge axis expected to pass on Sunday with return flow becoming established on Monday ahead of next trough. Progression of this trough may be too quick on GFS given model consensus of sprawling ridge in place invof the east coast at the beginning of the week. DGEX is somewhat slower and preferred with passage of trough axis not occurring until Wednesday. Regardless, believe late week cold intrusion will likely preclude significant moisture return prior to associated mid-week fropa.

Hazardous Weather

No hazardous weather is expected through the forecast period.