Saturday Night Forecast

Forecast Issued by Randy Bowers / Justin Gibbs on 03/25/2006 at 1:21:15 pm CT

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Tonight	Tomorrow	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday
	65°F	70°F	75°F	75°F
36°F		40°F	51°F	53°F
NW 5-10 mph	NW 5-10 mph	S 5-10 mph	S 5-10 mph	S 5-10 mph
0%	0%	0%	20%	30%

Detailed Forecast

*** Frost Advisory in effect from 3am to 7am Sunday Morning. *** Tonight… Clear. Low . Winds northwest 5-10 mph. Tomorrow... Clear. High around 65. Winds northwest 5-10 mph. Sunday Night... Clear. Low around 40. Winds northeast 5-10 mph. Monday... Mostly sunny. High around 70. Winds south 5-10 mph. Monday Night... Partly cloudy. Low around 51. Winds south 5-10 mph. Tuesday... Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers. High around 75. Winds south 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Tuesday Night... Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers. Low around 53. Winds south 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Wednesday... Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. High around 75. Winds south 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 30 percent. Wednesday Night... Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. . Low around 58. Winds south 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 30 percent.

Technical Discussion

Short Term (Saturday through Sunday Night): Right Now... Very dry airmass in place over the region this afternoon. Dewpoints continue to run in the upper 20s inland...to the middle 30s offshore. Sfc ridge is continuing a moderate offshore flow. Closed low over WRN PA has the region in a brisk nw flow aloft which is aiding in drying our our airmass. These conditions are expected to largely remain intact through the short term forecast period. Short Term...Tonight through Sunday night... Upper level closed low is projected to slowly push eastward over the next 24-36 hours...exiting the New England coast by 0z Monday. This low puts the region in a very dry nw'ly flow aloft. Surface flow mirrors this due to a broad ridge over the CNTRL CONUS which has stations reporting W-NW winds this hour. 12Z KLIX sounding indicates a bone dry airmass which should prevent much in the way of cloud formation. Will go with SKC conditions through the duration of the short term forecast period. Offshore flow will persist through the next 36 hours...with winds generally from the w/nw at 5-10mph. The only question raised in the short-term forecast is the possibilty of patchy frost in the overnight hours Saturday. As previous forecasters have mentioned it still appers winds will remain too strong for frost development. 12z guidance suite did bring the winds down just a touch from what had been advertised in previous guidance...and overnight lows were cut 1 degree due to a drop from guidance as the ridge axis nears. Guidance even at these slightly more favorable values still points away from frost development--it will be close however...so will mention the possibilty of patchy frost especially in the 5-7am timeframe...and mention WFO MOBs Frost advisory effective from 09-13z this morning. Update to HWO for NPW will be issued shortly. KMOB 0/0/0/0 36/65/40 SKC all pds. Long Term (Monday through Wednesday): WAA regime begins during the day Monday as surface ridge axis shifts eastward. Following this, a weak shortwave will pass to our north on Tuesday. Little impact is expected on our weather as best energy remains well north of our area and moisture will not yet have had a chance to advect in given the state of the gulf. Td values range from the lower 50s at central-gulf buoys to only the mid-30s and lower-40s and thus feel that it will take at least 24 to 36 hours after southerly surface flow commences before decent moisture returns to the area. Medium range models are in agreement that the best moisture return will have occurred by Wednesday, preceding mid-week system, when depth of moist layer is shown to be much greater. Nevertheless, on Tuesday the moist layer should still be sufficient for at least slight PoP –mainly late. Best chance will be Tuesday night/Wednesday in zone of WAA/weak isentropic lift in advance of a shortwave which is expected to pass early Thursday. Going forecast has a great handle on long term portion already and will only make minor adjustments. Otherwise, MOS guidance came in slightly warmer for Tue-Wed period than going forecast. Will split the difference and add a degree or two for both days. Short Term: Justin Gibbs Long Term: Randy Bowers

Hazardous Weather

The National Weather Service in Mobile has issued a Frost Advisory effective from 3am to 7am Sunday morning. If winds become very light to calm in the overnight hours Sunday night...patchy frost may develop across portions of Mobile and Baldwin counties. This frost development is most likely in northern portions of the county...and in rural areas where overnight temperatures will be the coldest.Sensitive outdoor plants and vegetation should be brought inside for protection.