Thursday Morning Forecast

Forecast Issued by Randy Bowers on 03/29/2006 at 11:33:29 pm CT

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Today	Friday	Saturday	Sunday	Monday
80°F	80°F	81°F	83°F	82°F
	61°F	61°F	62°F	62°F
S 5-10 mph	S 10-15 mph	S 5-10 mph	S 5-10 mph	S 10-15 mph
0%	0%	20%	20%	10%

Detailed Forecast

Today... Areas of fog in the morning. Otherwise, partly cloudy. High 80. Winds south 5-10 mph. Thursday Night... Partly cloudy with areas of fog developing mainly after midnight. Low 61. Winds south 5-10 mph. Friday... Partly cloudy. High 80. Winds south 10-15 mph. Friday Night... Partly cloudy with a slight chance of showers. Low 61. Winds south 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Saturday... Partly cloudy with a slight chance of showers. High 81. Winds south 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Saturday Night... Partly cloudy with a slight chance of showers. Low 62. Winds south 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Sunday... Partly cloudy with a slight chance of showers. High 83. Winds south 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Sunday Night... Partly cloudy with a slight chance of showers. Low 62. Winds south 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Monday... Partly cloudy. High 82. Winds south 10-15 mph.

Technical Discussion

Southerly/southeasterly flow at the surface finally bring in the moisture with Td values AOA 60 currently across the area. The initial concern for this forecast package is fog and will likely include morning fog in first period given observed trends. GFS time-height cross sections and model soundings continue to show a moist layer generally below H7 with drier air aloft. Attm, do not believe that moisture should warrant more than partial sky cover in first period, however. Fog may once again become a concern Thursday night again and have added fog wording to this period as very similar thermo/moist environment is shown in guidance. Strengthening mid/upper shortwave expected to be the main player in our weather for this forecast package –although impacts will likely be minimal per model trends. This is the same system that medium range models had trended slower with time throughout the week. Timing still remains a concern, with going forecast package currently hosting a low-chance PoP for both Saturday and Sunday. GFS and NAM in reasonable agreement on placement of surface feature associated with this system –showing front becoming east-to-west oriented over northern Alabama and shows it never quite making it to Mobile. Area remains under WAA regime as front lifts northward ahead of another advancing mid/upper wave by the beginning of the week. Given model inconsistency and uncertainties am not confident enough to drop PoPs altogether, but instead have opted to carry a 20 PoP over the weekend. If more consistency in model guidance develops, later shifts will want to consider eliminating weekend PoPs from the forecast. It appears that March ’06 may very well become the driest March on record after all. With the second shortwave, surface gradient once again tightens as a result of strengthening surface low passing to our north. GFS indicates fropa not occurring until Tuesday. Still, given inconsistencies in timing of medium range models and their performance thus far for the weekend event, feel that it is best to leave PoPs out for Monday attm, despite QPF area approaching by 00z Sat in GFS. DGEX is slightly slower and shows a similar scenario as NAM and GFS do for the weekend event –with front stalling just north of Mobile before quickly lifting northward again. Additionally, ECMWF is weaker with this system than GFS though timing appears similar. Too many uncertainties to include early week PoPs attm. Changes for this package included tweaking of winds, minor temperature adjustments (based on MOS trends), and reduction of weekend PoPs.

Hazardous Weather

No hazardous weather is expected through the forecast period.

Wednesday Evening Forecast

Forecast Issued by Justin Gibbs on 03/29/2006 at 12:48:58 pm CT

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Tonight	Tomorrow	Friday	Saturday	Sunday
	80°F	81°F	82°F	82°F
56°F		60°F	61°F	60°F
S 5 mph	S 5-10 mph	S 10-15 mph	S 5-10 mph	SW 5-15 mph
10%	0%	10%	30%	30%

Detailed Forecast

Tonight… Mostly cloudy, with patchy fog towards daybreak. Low 56. Winds south s 5 mph. Chance of rain is 10 percent. Tomorrow... Partly cloudy. High 80. Winds south 5-10 mph. Thursday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 60. Winds south 5-10 mph increasing to 10-15 mph overnight. Chance of rain is 10 percent. Friday... Partly cloudy. High 81. Winds south 10-15 mph. Chance of rain is 10 percent. Friday Night... Mostly cloudy with Isolated showers. Low 61. Winds south 5-15 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Saturday... Mostly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms. High 82. Winds south 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 30 percent. Saturday Night... Mostly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms. Low 60. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 30 percent. Sunday... Mostly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms. High 82. Winds southwest 5-15 mph. Chance of rain is 30 percent. Sunday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 58. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 10 percent.

Technical Discussion

"Forecast Discussion (Wednesday through Sunday): Right Now... Calm to slight southeasterly winds are being reported across the NCNTRL Gulf coast this afternoon. Main surface influences involve 2 high pressure ridges to our north and east (one centered over IN/OH the other just E of the Bahamas. We are also dealing with a lingering frontal boundary analyzed about 70 mi north of MOB last hour. This front is sparking a few showers inland and over the coastal waters. Very weak pertubation is indicated in the 500/250mb analysis over WRN LA...while a much more powerful trof is digging into the western CONUS. Short Term...(Through Thursday) Main forecast challenge regards frontal system to our north and shortwave to our west. Airmass is bone dry at the sfc with 70/49 reported last hour at KMOB. 12z LIX sounding indicates however there is a thin band of saturated air running from about 825mb-650mb...this ribbon of moisture is responsible for this afternoons largely mostly cloudy sky...and no substantial changes to the airmass are anticipated over the next 6-8 hours. Will keep a mostly cloudy solution in for cloud cover...and will put what is likely a generous 10 pop into the forecast for very light showers that may occur mainly between 7-12z when the afforementioned weak upper level shortwave axis is expected to pass. Winds are expected to continue to diminish through the evening hours...NAM/GFS both however call for the rather rich sfc moisture located just off the coast to make it's way inland by this evening providing the stage for a fog event. Fog should remain fairly patchy but it does appear it will be more widespread than it was last evening, and will include a mention in the forecast. Thursday will see our winds increase from the south as a sfc cyclone deepens over the plains in response to a strong 250/500mb disturbance pushing northeastward off the Rockies. Guidance indicates the winds should start to pick up after around 18z. Will bump going forecast up about 5mph with ""afternoon"" wording and hold about a 10-15mph forecast until FROPA...later shifts may need to bump this up further as 850mb jet is rather impressive just to our west in 12z guidance...any further eastward shift of this feature may make for a very windy afternoon and evening Thursday. Long Term... Friday front approaches from the northwest but 12z guidance across the board still appears to continue to agree that we will not see passage on Friday. Current guidance also paints no QPF with no real convergengence present. SBCAPE values are running around 500 j/kg Friday afternoon across the area but with 10-15kt winds feel the boundary layer airmass will be too well mixed to even get a bit of sea-breeze convergence and will continue the going 10 pop for dayside Friday. New guidance is a bit quicker with frontal passage...caling for a FROPA Friday overnight. Low level windfields south of the Mid-MS VLY have improved somewhat in latest runs and feel as if we may see the front run reasonably close to this timeframe. However--another major sfc/low level ridge has positioned itself off the Atlantic coast and that may serve to play out a scenario very similar to what we are currently dealing with. With that in mind will essentially stay the course of the going forecast which calls for the front to stall and linger through Saturday evening. This makes Saturday highs difficult...will essentially cut a degree or two from going MOS to allow for cloud cover and the possibility of a weak frontal passage. Later shifts will likely need to make adjustments. Once the system clears return flow quickly sets back up along the western periphery of the afforementioned surface ridge and we deal with another cyclone in the central plains. GFS/ECMWF both drag a cold front through the area Sunday night-going forecast reflects this. Only issue involves temperatures with current MEX MOS calling for a high of 86 Sunday. This appears rather unreasonable at the moment and will simply bump going forecast up a few degrees in response to the 12z's building of a more pronounced upper level ridge ahead of the next trof. "

Hazardous Weather

No hazardous weather is expected through the forecast period.

Tuesday Morning Forecast

Forecast Issued by Justin Gibbs on 03/28/2006 at 12:15:02 am CT

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Today	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday
75°F	76°F	80°F	81°F	80°F
	57°F	57°F	60°F	62°F
s 5-10 mph	s 5-10 mph	s 10-15 mph	s 10-20 mph	sw 5-10 mph
20%	20%	0%	20%	40%

Detailed Forecast

Today... Isolated Showers. High 75. Winds south 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Tuesday Night... Patchy fog possible in the morning. Low 57. Winds south 3-6 mph. Wednesday... Isolated showers in the afternoon. High 76. Winds south 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Wednesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 57. Winds south 5-10 mph. Thursday... Mostly sunny. High 80. Winds south 10-15 mph. Thursday Night... Isolated showers. Low 60. Winds south 10-20 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Friday... Isolated Thunderstorms. High 81. Winds south 10-20 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Friday Night... Scattered thunderstorms. Low 62. Winds south-southwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 40 percent. Saturday... Scattered thunderstorms. High 80. Winds southwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 40 percent.

Technical Discussion

Forecast Discussion (Tuesday through Saturday): Right Now... Region lies under the influence of a ridge of high pressure centered last hour about 150nm SE of Charleston, WV, ridge is aiding in providing a WAA pattern with light S-SE'ly winds being reproted across the northcentral gulf coast last hour. Not much in the way of moisture advection ongoing at the sfc with gulf buoys reporting td's in the lower 50s there simply isnt much to pull in out of the ERN gulf thanks to several recent intrusions. The WRN Gulf is a bit richer and a vertically stacked closed low is playing off the moisture dragging a cold front at the surface across the lower plains and lower mississippi valley. A few -SHRA are being indicated on radar from WRN TX to SRN Middle TN. Short Term... Main forecast challenge in the near term involves any impact of this weak frontal system on the MOB area. 0z KLIX sounding indicates a slightly drier than orignally progged airmass, however there is a bit of moisture associated with the main trof axis just downstream as indicated by the 0z KLCH sounding. 0z NAM/GFS pick this up reasonably well. GFS builds more ridging in at 700/850mb which prevents a discernable trof/moisture axis from moving through the region, while NAM shows a more rain favorable solution as the lower levels saturate ahead of the front at around 18z. At the sfc models show cold front stalling across WRN AL/ERN MS due to weak forcing aloft and a rather substantial low level ridge that persists to the east. 0z guidance is much more pronounced with this than 12/18z guidance, and 18z guidance had hinted at a weakening. Given these trends will taper back down to a 20% pop and use evening wording as it appears the earliest the front would approach the area is likey around 23/1z. Partly cloudy should describe the day fairly well as we shouldn't pick up much in the way of cloud cover until about 18/20z. For temperatures will lean towards warmer MET MOS. Tuesday night what is left of the front will clear by around 6z putting the region back in a very light southerly flow as the main ridge axis to our southeast again retakes control over the wx pattern. Dewpoint depressions drop to around 2 in MOS guidance by daybreak so will continue the patchy fog wording in the forecast. Long Term... Wednesday we will start off with a few clouds but largely should retain a Mostly Sunny/Sunny sky. Guidance is in good agreement with about a 5-10kt southerly wind in response to the building ridge axis over the ERN CONUS. Both GFS/NAM hint at seabreeze oriented activity in the afternoon hours NAM/GFS forecast soundings continue to hint at this but afternoon instability is much reduced from what we were seeing in earlier runs(e.g. NAM SBCAPE reduced from ~700 j/kg in 12z run to ~300 j/kg in the 0z data.) Will allow for a little leeway and keep the pop in the forecast for now but reduce it as well to a 20% chance. Temperatures will remain quite warm with upper level ridging in place aloft and WAA taking place at the sfc...will continue going forecasts trend of bumping up warmest MOS a degree or two for the afternoon period. Thursday GFS/NAM/UKMET/ECMWF agree on a ejecting a rapidly amplifying upper level trof off the rockies and pushing it eastward. Sfc cylcone reponds to the deepening storm system in kind by deepening and pushing to the northeast. As it does our gradient winds will begin to increase from the S at 10-15kts. Current guidance indicates this increase in winds will likely occur between 20-0z Thursday afternoon/evening. Will increase to PCLOUDY for Thursday afternoon and mark up temperatures another few degrees from MOS guidance that is already trending warmer. Will go with a 20 TSRA pop evening/overnight as guidance indicates it will take a few hours of good WAA to destabilize the boundary layer sufficiently for organized convection. Looks as if this will most likely occur overnight, but will keep ""evening"" style wording in now to allow for uncertainty. Friday is the trickiest of the forecast days, as NAM/GFS/ECMWF slow and weaken the sfc front progged to move through in the afternoon considerably...once more. ECMWF/GFS used for actual frontal passage which doesn't occur until around 6z Saturday. Moisture is also a concern as well as instability, as models again have trended down with both. Feel best solution at the moment is a bit of a split ticket between Friday and Saturday. Given weakness of frontal forcing in our area, could very well see front stall or wash out entirely by the time it arrives in this area (as has been the case several times this spring season) But upper level storm system involved over the MID MS VLY appears robust enough to dig far enough SE to help get sufficient forcing behind the system to push it through. Will however drop pops to SCTD and include on both Fri/Sat to allow for additional slowing of the storm system. Long term guidances parks us in the 80s on Thursday and keeps us there through the 7day run. This appears reasonable and will follow relatively closely minus a few tweaks toward a more preferred frontal pasage timing solution.

Hazardous Weather

No hazardous weather is expected through the forecast period.

Monday Evening Forecast

Forecast Issued by Michael Leach on 03/27/2006 at 2:05:37 pm CT

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Tonight	Tomorrow	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday
	74°F	76°F	78°F	79°F
50°F		57°F	58°F	60°F
SSE 5-10 mph	S 6-12 mph	S 5-10 mph	S 5-10 mph	SSW 10-15 mph
0%	30%	30%	30%	60%

Detailed Forecast

Tonight… Partly cloudy. Low near 50. Winds south-southeast 5-10 mph. Tomorrow... Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. High around 74. Winds south 6-12 mph. Chance of rain is 30 percent. Tuesday Night... Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Patchy fog possible after midnight. Low near 57. Light southeast winds. Chance of rain is 30 percent. Wednesday... Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. High around 76. Winds south 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 30 percent. Wednesday Night... Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low near 58. Winds south 3-8 mph. Chance of rain is 30 percent. Thursday... Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. High around 78. Winds south 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 30 percent. Thursday Night... Partly cloudy with a slight chance of showers. Low around 60. Winds south 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Friday... Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms becoming likely. High near 79. Winds south-southwest 10-15 mph. Chance of rain is 60 percent. Friday Night... Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low 62. Winds south-southwest 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 50 percent.

Technical Discussion

Short Term (Tonight through Tuesday evening): A nice warmup is underway this afternoon as southeasterly winds are bringing up warmer air from the Gulf of Mexico. Dewpoints remain rather low (38F at KMOB at 1 PM CST), but should begin to increase later today and tonight. At the surface, an area of high pressure is located over the Carolinas, providing us with that southeasterly wind. Tonight, expect lows to be around 10 degrees warmer than last night due to more cloud cover and to the WAA pattern that has begun over the area. On Tuesday, a weak cold front will move into Central Alabama, but will likely stall north of our area. 12z MOS products increased PoP's for this timeframe. Rain will be likely over Central Alabama in association with the front, and there is a chance of a few showers down this way as a few small shortwave troughs will move through the area, providing some slight PVA. These shortwaves are hard to time, and will go with 30% PoP's for both Tuesday and Tuesday night. Models indicate the possibility of fog Tuesday Night as the dewpoint approaches the temperature and wind speeds go light, and will include patchy fog in the forecast for after midnight on Tuesday Night. Temperatures continue to warm during the short term period due to WAA. Long Term (Wednesday through Friday): The cold front that stalled over Central Alabama on Tuesday will likely begin to retreat northward as a warm front on Wednesday, keeping our area in a continued WAA pattern with increasing temperatures and dewpoints. For Wednesday and Thursday, several small shortwave troughs will move across the area, providing some PVA. Once again, these will be hard to time, and kept small PoP's in the forecast for that time frame. Friday's forecast looks pretty tricky at this time. A strong low pressure area will move across the Midwest on Friday, and to near the Great Lakes region by Friday Night. A trailing cold front from this system will likely approach (and maybe pass through) the region Friday night/early Saturday morning. The question will be the amount of moisture and lifting available in our area. The 00z GFS showed an amplified trough across the Southeastern states, and painted a pretty good chance of precip across our area. The 12z GFS has the trough a little less amplified and a little farther to the north. Consequently, the 12z GFS is not as robust with precip as the 00z GFS was. In fact, the 12z GFS shows a similar situation as with the last few cold fronts that have moved across our region, with the best chance of precip just north of MOB. The 12z ECMWF shows basically the same pattern as the 12z GFS, with the surface low perhaps a little farther north than the GFS. Nevertheless, will continue with previously forecasted 60% PoP's on Friday at this time, and await later model runs to see if that needs to be adjusted one way or the other. Temperatures will continue to warm throughout the period thanks to WAA.

Hazardous Weather

No hazardous weather is expected through the forecast period.

Sunday Afternoon Forecast

Forecast Issued by Randy Bowers on 03/26/2006 at 3:41:00 pm CT

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Tonight	Tomorrow	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday
	71°F	75°F	77°F	76°F
39°F		49°F	57°F	61°F
Var 5-10 mph	SE 5-10 mph	S 5-10 mph	S 5-10 mph	S 10-15 mph
0%	0%	0%	20%	40%

Detailed Forecast

Tonight… Clear. Low 39. Winds Northeast at 5 mph shifting to the southeast. Tomorrow... Mostly sunny. High around 71. Winds southeast 5-10 mph. Monday Night... Mostly clear. Low around 49. Winds south 5-10 mph. Tuesday... Partly cloudy. High around 75. Winds south 5-10 mph. Tuesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low around 57. Winds south 5-10 mph. Wednesday... Partly cloudy with a slight chance of showers. High around 77. Winds south 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Wednesday Night... Partly cloudy with a slight chance of showers. Low around 61. Winds south 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 40 percent. Thursday... Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. High around 76. Winds south 10-15 mph. Chance of rain is 40 percent. Thursday Night... Partly cloudy with a slight chance of showers. Low around 63. Winds south 10-15 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent.

Technical Discussion

Forecast Discussion (Sunday through Thursday): After a low of 36 at KMOB and 41 at KBFM, temperatures have warmed quickly into the 60s under full sun. One more unseasonably cool night before southerly flow commences during the next 24 hours. Surface ridge axis expected to pass overnight with very light winds gradually shifting to the southeast just after midnight. Until then, temperatures should again fall quickly under clear skies and with light winds –likely leveling off once winds shift around to the south. Will follow MOS for overnight lows which are generally AOA one-three degrees warmer than previous overnight low temperatures. As surface high pressure shifts east, a weak shortwave will pass just north of our area on Tuesday with little consequence on our weather. Following this initial wave, a series of ill-defined and difficult to time perturbations in westerly upper flow will traverse the area. The most distinguishable one impacts the area late Wednesday night/early Thursday. Both DGEX and GFS enhance QPF invof this wave. A much more powerful system approaches late in the week and should reach the area over the weekend per consensus between the medium range models. Current forecast in fine shape and have only made minor adjustments based on new 12z run.

Hazardous Weather

No hazardous weather is expected through the forecast period.

Special Weather Update

...Freeze Warning in effect for northern portions of the area overnight... Frost Advisory remains in effect for the remainder of the area overnight...

The National Weather Service in Mobile has issued a Freeze Warning for Northern Mobile and Northern Baldwin County in effect from 2 AM to 7 AM Sunday Morning. A Frost Advisory remains in effect from 2 AM to 7 AM Sunday Morning for Lower Mobile and Lower Baldwin County. There is the possibility that some locations...mainly north of the city of Mobile...could see a light freeze tonight. Patchy frost is possible overnight over the remainder of the region...especially if wind speeds become very light or go calm. These conditions could damage or kill sensitive outdoor plants. Therefore, outdoor plants should be covered or brought indoors for protection.

Saturday Night Forecast

Forecast Issued by Randy Bowers / Justin Gibbs on 03/25/2006 at 1:21:15 pm CT

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Tonight	Tomorrow	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday
	65°F	70°F	75°F	75°F
36°F		40°F	51°F	53°F
NW 5-10 mph	NW 5-10 mph	S 5-10 mph	S 5-10 mph	S 5-10 mph
0%	0%	0%	20%	30%

Detailed Forecast

*** Frost Advisory in effect from 3am to 7am Sunday Morning. *** Tonight… Clear. Low . Winds northwest 5-10 mph. Tomorrow... Clear. High around 65. Winds northwest 5-10 mph. Sunday Night... Clear. Low around 40. Winds northeast 5-10 mph. Monday... Mostly sunny. High around 70. Winds south 5-10 mph. Monday Night... Partly cloudy. Low around 51. Winds south 5-10 mph. Tuesday... Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers. High around 75. Winds south 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Tuesday Night... Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers. Low around 53. Winds south 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Wednesday... Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. High around 75. Winds south 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 30 percent. Wednesday Night... Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. . Low around 58. Winds south 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 30 percent.

Technical Discussion

Short Term (Saturday through Sunday Night): Right Now... Very dry airmass in place over the region this afternoon. Dewpoints continue to run in the upper 20s inland...to the middle 30s offshore. Sfc ridge is continuing a moderate offshore flow. Closed low over WRN PA has the region in a brisk nw flow aloft which is aiding in drying our our airmass. These conditions are expected to largely remain intact through the short term forecast period. Short Term...Tonight through Sunday night... Upper level closed low is projected to slowly push eastward over the next 24-36 hours...exiting the New England coast by 0z Monday. This low puts the region in a very dry nw'ly flow aloft. Surface flow mirrors this due to a broad ridge over the CNTRL CONUS which has stations reporting W-NW winds this hour. 12Z KLIX sounding indicates a bone dry airmass which should prevent much in the way of cloud formation. Will go with SKC conditions through the duration of the short term forecast period. Offshore flow will persist through the next 36 hours...with winds generally from the w/nw at 5-10mph. The only question raised in the short-term forecast is the possibilty of patchy frost in the overnight hours Saturday. As previous forecasters have mentioned it still appers winds will remain too strong for frost development. 12z guidance suite did bring the winds down just a touch from what had been advertised in previous guidance...and overnight lows were cut 1 degree due to a drop from guidance as the ridge axis nears. Guidance even at these slightly more favorable values still points away from frost development--it will be close however...so will mention the possibilty of patchy frost especially in the 5-7am timeframe...and mention WFO MOBs Frost advisory effective from 09-13z this morning. Update to HWO for NPW will be issued shortly. KMOB 0/0/0/0 36/65/40 SKC all pds. Long Term (Monday through Wednesday): WAA regime begins during the day Monday as surface ridge axis shifts eastward. Following this, a weak shortwave will pass to our north on Tuesday. Little impact is expected on our weather as best energy remains well north of our area and moisture will not yet have had a chance to advect in given the state of the gulf. Td values range from the lower 50s at central-gulf buoys to only the mid-30s and lower-40s and thus feel that it will take at least 24 to 36 hours after southerly surface flow commences before decent moisture returns to the area. Medium range models are in agreement that the best moisture return will have occurred by Wednesday, preceding mid-week system, when depth of moist layer is shown to be much greater. Nevertheless, on Tuesday the moist layer should still be sufficient for at least slight PoP –mainly late. Best chance will be Tuesday night/Wednesday in zone of WAA/weak isentropic lift in advance of a shortwave which is expected to pass early Thursday. Going forecast has a great handle on long term portion already and will only make minor adjustments. Otherwise, MOS guidance came in slightly warmer for Tue-Wed period than going forecast. Will split the difference and add a degree or two for both days. Short Term: Justin Gibbs Long Term: Randy Bowers

Hazardous Weather

The National Weather Service in Mobile has issued a Frost Advisory effective from 3am to 7am Sunday morning. If winds become very light to calm in the overnight hours Sunday night...patchy frost may develop across portions of Mobile and Baldwin counties. This frost development is most likely in northern portions of the county...and in rural areas where overnight temperatures will be the coldest.Sensitive outdoor plants and vegetation should be brought inside for protection.

Saturday Morning Forecast (updated)

Forecast Issued by Michael Leach on 03/25/2006 at 12:08:18 am CT (updated at 4:56:00 am CT)

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Today	Sunday	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday
65°F	66°F	69°F	73°F	75°F
	37°F	40°F	49°F	53°F
N 5-10 mph	NNE 3-8 mph	S 5-10 mph	S 5-10 mph	S 5-10 mph
0%	0%	0%	20%	30%

Detailed Forecast

***Frost Advisory for Mobile County from 3 am to 7 am Sunday Morning*** Today... Mostly sunny. High around 65. Winds north 5-10 mph. Saturday Night... Mostly clear. Patchy frost possible after midnight. Low around 37. Winds north 3-8 mph. Sunday... Mostly sunny. High around 66. Winds north-northeast 3-8 mph. Sunday Night... Mostly clear. Low near 40. Winds light and variable. Monday... Partly cloudy. High around 69. Winds south 5-10 mph. Monday Night... Partly cloudy. Low around 49. Winds south 3-8 mph. Tuesday... A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. High around 73. Winds south 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Tuesday Night... Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low around 53. Winds south 3-8 mph. Chance of rain is 30 percent. Wednesday... Scattered showers and thunderstorms. High in the mid 70's. Winds south 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 30 percent.

Technical Discussion

The purpose of this update is to include the Frost Advisory issued by NWS MOB for early Sunday Morning. I still believe that wind speeds will probably be high enough to preclude much in the way of frost development, but mentioned the possibility of patchy frost just to be safe. Previous discussion follows: Short Term (Saturday through Sunday): Currently, an area of high pressure is located to the northwest of the area, over the Great Plains states. A Weak CAA pattern will continue across the region through the short term period, with cool northerly winds dominating the forecast area around the high. Temperatures will remain below normal through Sunday. Another cold night is ahead with lows dropping down into the mid to upper 30's. However, wind speeds are expected to stay high enough to preculde the development of frost or freezing temperatures at KMOB. By Sunday Night, some return flow is expected to develop across the area as the high pressure area moves toward the Mid-Atlantic states. Long Term (Monday through Wednesday): WAA will dominate the forecast area through this period, with temperatures warming up to near normal levels. The return flow from the Gulf will also result in more moisture moving into the area. By Tuesday, a weak shortwave trough will be located to the west, resulting in W/SW flow at 500 mb. A stronger shortwave will be located across the Upper Midwest. The northern trough will have better dynamics associated with it. However, with moisture in place over MOB, a slight chance of rain will be included for MOB. By Tuesday Night and Wednesday, the southern shortwave will move closer to the area, resulting in some slight PVA over MOB. Included low-end chance PoPs for the end of the period, with a scattered coverage of SHRA/TSRA expected at this time. Highs and lows will continue to warm each day through the end of the period.

Hazardous Weather

The National Weather Service in Mobile has issued a Frost Advisory from 3 am to 7 am Sunday Morning. If wind speeds become calm or very light, some patchy frost may develop during this time frame. Sensitive outdoor plants should be covered or brought inside for protection. Otherwise, no hazardous weather is expected through the forecast period.

Saturday Morning Forecast

Forecast Issued by Michael Leach on 03/25/2006 at 12:08:18 am CT

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Today	Sunday	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday
65°F	66°F	69°F	73°F	75°F
	37°F	40°F	49°F	53°F
N 5-10 mph	NNE 3-8 mph	S 5-10 mph	S 5-10 mph	S 5-10 mph
0%	0%	0%	20%	30%

Detailed Forecast

Today... Mostly sunny. High around 65. Winds north 5-10 mph. Saturday Night... Mostly clear. Low around 37. Winds north 3-8 mph. Sunday... Mostly sunny. High around 66. Winds north-northeast 3-8 mph. Sunday Night... Mostly clear. Low near 40. Winds light and variable. Monday... Partly cloudy. High around 69. Winds south 5-10 mph. Monday Night... Partly cloudy. Low around 49. Winds south 3-8 mph. Tuesday... A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. High around 73. Winds south 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Tuesday Night... Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low around 53. Winds south 3-8 mph. Chance of rain is 30 percent. Wednesday... Scattered showers and thunderstorms. High in the mid 70's. Winds south 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 30 percent.

Technical Discussion

Short Term (Saturday through Sunday): Currently, an area of high pressure is located to the northwest of the area, over the Great Plains states. A Weak CAA pattern will continue across the region through the short term period, with cool northerly winds dominating the forecast area around the high. Temperatures will remain below normal through Sunday. Another cold night is ahead with lows dropping down into the mid to upper 30's. However, wind speeds are expected to stay high enough to preculde the development of frost or freezing temperatures at KMOB. By Sunday Night, some return flow is expected to develop across the area as the high pressure area moves toward the Mid-Atlantic states. Long Term (Monday through Wednesday): WAA will dominate the forecast area through this period, with temperatures warming up to near normal levels. The return flow from the Gulf will also result in more moisture moving into the area. By Tuesday, a weak shortwave trough will be located to the west, resulting in W/SW flow at 500 mb. A stronger shortwave will be located across the Upper Midwest. The northern trough will have better dynamics associated with it. However, with moisture in place over MOB, a slight chance of rain will be included for MOB. By Tuesday Night and Wednesday, the southern shortwave will move closer to the area, resulting in some slight PVA over MOB. Included low-end chance PoPs for the end of the period, with a scattered coverage of SHRA/TSRA expected at this time. Highs and lows will continue to warm each day through the end of the period.

Hazardous Weather

No hazardous weather is expected through the forecast period.

Thursday Morning Forecast

Forecast Issued by Randy Bowers on 03/23/2006 at 12:27:59 am CT

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Today	Friday	Saturday	Sunday	Monday
62°F	62°F	64°F	66°F	71°F
	35°F	35°F	37°F	43°F
N 10-15 mph	N 10-15 mph	N 10-15 mph	NE 5-10 mph	SE 5-10 mph
30%	0%	0%	0%	0%

Detailed Forecast

Today... Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers in the morning. Partial clearing by afternoon. High around 62. Winds north 10-15 mph. Chance of rain is 30 percent. Thursday Night... Mostly clear. Low around 35. Winds north 10-15 mph. Friday... Sunny.. High around 62. Winds north 10-15 mph. Friday Night... Clear. Low around 35. Winds north 5-10 mph. Saturday... Sunny.. High around 64. Winds north 10-15 mph. Saturday Night... Clear. Low around 37. Winds north 5-10 mph. Sunday... Sunny.. High around 66. Winds northeast 5-10 mph. Sunday Night... Mostly clear. Low around 43. Winds calm. Monday... Partly cloudy.. High around 71. Winds southeast 5-10 mph.

Technical Discussion

Short Term… KMOB indicating precipitation across the region with the most concentrated area paralleling the coast at this time. Went ahead with an evening update increasing PoPs to 50, otherwise no other significant changes. Upper trough and moistening column contributing to tonight’s pcpn event. KLIX 00z sounding showing a PWAT value of 0.94” with most of the moisture being confined in the H4 to H7 layer with somewhat drier air below H7. Nevertheless, column is more moist than previously forecast. NAM time height cross sections from the 00z run now showing a much more moist column than previous runs with >90 percent RH sfc-H6 post-06z –which seems to be overdone when comparing KLIX 00z sounding. Although NAM keeps the mid-levels moist through 18z, it thins moisture considerably below H8 by around 12z. PWAT values remain AOA one inch through 15z per extracted output. This can be seen more clearly on the plain view with band of H7 moisture extending along the coast from southeast Texas to JAX at 12z. RUC is similar. Will go with morning PoP for first period as best moisture departs by 18z. Confidence is not high enough for anything above low-chance attm. Nwrly flow aloft becomes established throughout the column on Friday in response to strengthening closed upper low over NErn CONUS. Heights fall considerably over our region and this is reflected in MOS temperatures. One concern is with overnight lows Thursday night. MOS consensus brings us down into the mid 30s, with MET and FWC being the warmest. Winds stay up during this period per guidance so concerns for a freeze are not high attm. Am inclined to go with MAV’s cooler low temperatures for now. Later shifts will need to watch this closely. If winds subside more than models are currently indicating, inclusion of freezing/sub-freezing temperatures in the Hazardous Weather Discussion may be needed. Long Term… Large surface high dominates over the Ern CONUS this weekend keeping us in NWrly flow at the surface. Sfc ridge axis expected to pass on Sunday with return flow becoming established on Monday ahead of next trough. Progression of this trough may be too quick on GFS given model consensus of sprawling ridge in place invof the east coast at the beginning of the week. DGEX is somewhat slower and preferred with passage of trough axis not occurring until Wednesday. Regardless, believe late week cold intrusion will likely preclude significant moisture return prior to associated mid-week fropa.

Hazardous Weather

No hazardous weather is expected through the forecast period.

Wednesday Afternoon Forecast --Update

Forecast Issued by Justin Gibbs on 03/22/2006 at 3:16:15 pm CT

-Updated at 10:45:00 pm CT by Randy Bowers-

Mobile, Alabama 5 Day Forecast
Tonight	Tomorrow	Friday	Saturday	Sunday
	60°F	62°F	65°F	69°F
44°F		36°F	34°F	35°F
N 5-10 mph	N 5-10 mph	N 5-15 mph	N 3-6 mph	NW 5-10 mph
50%	20%	0%	0%	0%

Detailed Forecast

Tonight… Scattered showers. Otherwise, mostly cloudy. Low around 44. Winds north 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 50 percent. Tomorrow... Isolated showers. High around 60. Winds north 5-10 mph. Chance of rain is 20 percent. Thursday Night... Partly cloudy. Low around 36. Winds north 5-15 mph. Friday... Mostly sunny. High around 62. Winds north 5-15 mph. Friday Night... Mostly clear. Low around 34. Winds north 3-6 mph. Saturday... Mostly sunny. High around 65. Winds north 3-6 mph. Saturday Night... Mostly clear. Low around 35. Winds north 3-6 mph. Sunday... Mostly sunny. High around 69. Winds northwest 5-10 mph. Sunday Night... Partly cloudy. Low around 38. Winds northwest 5-15 mph.

Technical Discussion

Sent a quick update to adjust PoPs for first period based on radar trends. Also, based on surface obs and a peak at new MOS numbers, have raised overnight lows by a degree.

Hazardous Weather

No hazardous weather is expected through the forecast period.